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Saturday, 2 September 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Liam Smith vs Chris Eubank Jr II (September 2nd)

There is no doubt that Queensberry and Daniel Dubois will have been very glad that there was some controversy at the conclusion of his Unification World Title shot against Oleksandr Usyk, if only to control some of the narrative around the fight.

A borderline body shot in the Fifth Round was quickly ruled a low blow and Oleksandr Usyk was given plenty of time to recover- on first look it would have felt Daniel Dubois had perhaps been unfortunate with the call made by the referee, but ultimately it was a low shot and the right decision was made.

Of course the Dubois team and promoter were going to make a massive deal out of being 'robbed' and plenty in the United Kingdom have bought into that storyline.

However, my feeling was that Oleksandr Usyk would have been able to get up if it was ruled a legal blow and it is hard to shift the image of Daniel Dubois calling it a day on his knee for a second time in his career. Many gave him sympathy for doing that against Joe Joyce with a busted orbital bone, but the decision to stay down last week is hard to accept, even if all boxers deserve a lot of credit for merely stepping through the ropes.

Inside the industry it will have been something noted and Daniel Dubois is going to have to answer some major questions at some point about whether he has the heart compete when the going gets tough. For the majority of his career it has not been tough and opponents have crumbled under his power, but on two high-profile occasions he has chosen to stay on a knee and it is hard to fathom.

At 25 years old he has time on his side, but Dubois likely needs a couple of confident building wins and then has to step up his level. It may not mean having a World Title fight, but it does mean he needs to be put in with someone very live, if only for the promoters and the fighter to see if he has what it takes to take the leap into World level consistently going forward.


On the same night in the United States, Jared Anderson was back in his Knock Out form when getting rid of a veteran and he is another who is going to be looking to step up his level of opponent. He has been built nicely and is very young, but Anderson is already in the World Rankings and it may be tough to contain his steep climb.

Perhaps the idea will be to put Anderson in with Efe Ajagba, who won on the undercard, as the next step in his career before moving onto fringe World level.

With the top of the Heavyweight Division ageing, both Daniel Dubois and Jared Anderson could fill the void, although the excitement will definitely be behind the American.


September looks to be a genuinely strong month for Boxing fans and it will be concluded with the big fight between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo for all of the straps in the Super Middleweight Division.

There are some big names and some big fights also due out this month and it should be a fun time to be a fan of the sport.

First up is the rematch between Liam Smith and Chris Eubank Jr that has seemingly been delayed a couple of times as they renew hostilities back in Manchester. The undercard is decent to the main event too, but most will be looking forward to seeing how Eubank Jr responds to the biggest setback of his career so far.



Liam Smith vs Chris Eubank Jr II

There have been plenty of memorable moments for boxing fans throughout 2023 and some of those have been at the world level, but a lot of fans from the United Kingdom may point to the first meeting between Liam Smith and Chris Eubanks Jr as being top of the list.

It only lasted Four Rounds when they met in Manchester in January, but the conclusion was as shocking as any fight that has taken place in the United Kingdom this year.

At the time, the feeling was that Chris Eubank Jr would be the bigger and naturally stronger fighter, but that Liam Smith had the opportunity of earning the upset behind the technically sounder boxing.

Very few would have predicted the granite chinned Chris Eubank Jr to have been stopped in the fashion he was, even if he subsequently claimed an errant elbow had been the shot that had begun his downfall.

There were some factors at play that perhaps were not considered as much as they should have been- Chris Eubank Jr played up to the fans by completing his weight cut and hitting the target that was set for the eventually cancelled bout with Conor Benn and that might have just taken some of his legs away when fighting Liam Smith a couple of months later.

However, Smith was confident he could hurt Chris Eubank Jr prior to the fight having done so in previous sparring sessions and it is hard to look past a repeat victory.

Some may feel Chris Eubank Jr linking up with Bomac can just change things for him, especially considering the job the trainer has done with Terence Crawford, but Eubank Jr is not one of the pound for pound best fighters in the world. And he has not been working long enough with Bomac to really believe that the trainer would have imprinted himself on the fighter.

You do have to believe that Bomac feels he can add something to Chris Eubank Jr, else he would not have taken the task on, but the time together may not have been long enough.

It is certainly tough when you think of the comfort level Liam Smith will have with his team and the Liverpudlian has looked very confident in the build up to the rematch. An 'old injury' that delayed the bout a couple of months is perhaps a slight concern, but Smith is talking about chasing Middleweight Titles going forward and he certainly knows he has all of the tools to win this fight.

My feeling is that it will go longer, but there are some real mental demons to exorcise for Chris Eubank Jr and the worry is that his punch resistance is significantly weaker than at his peak. Liam Smith will move forward and look to throw a lot of leather and it feels like it will be a matter of time before Eubank Jr reverts to type and tries to dig in and trade with his opponent.

I expect him to come out a little more cautious and behind the jab, but technically there are issues and Liam Smith showed he can work around that punch and really get close to Eubank Jr.

The first three Rounds of the first meeting between the fighters were close and competitive and this one is likely to be very similar. The suggestion is that Liam Smith will get closer by Round Four again, but this time Chris Eubank Jr works to a plan until the first big punch lands on him.

He looks like he has just lost a bit of a step and the engine is not able to run as long as previously and that means Chris Eubank Jr has to plant his feet and trade, which only works to Liam Smith's favour. Both of these men know that Liam Smith has the finishing power and this could be a virtual repeat of the first fight with Smith ending it without the need to hear the cards.


The undercard in Manchester has some recognisable names ready to compete, but perhaps not in the most taxing of fights.

Florian Marku is back in front of the television cameras on a Boxxer card and he continues to be well matched- I can't help think he will be exposed when he truly steps up a level, but Marku sells tickets and has charisma, while the vulnerability makes him fun to watch.

Despite the record, his opponent Dylan Moran is not expected to provide the step up that some will be hoping to see Florian Marku take and the Albanian can get this one done inside the distance.

You have to expect Mark Heffron to do the same when facing Jack Cullen for the British Super Middleweight Title. Both of the fighters have been Stopped a number of times, but the Champion has built some momentum since moving up from Middleweight, while Cullen has lost two of his last three fights and may have very little left in the tank.

Plenty of people like David Allen, but many of those would have hoped he had stayed retired. Instead he is in a very tough fight against Frazer Clarke and not many are buying Allen's confidence in winning this fight.

Frazer Clarke has to get the job done inside the distance and he should be too fresh for Allen who has been fighting once a year since 2020.

The inactivity coupled with the fact that Allen has already retired once should mean Frazer Clarke can turn on the style pretty early in this one and not allow a dangerous opponent to setting into the contest.

The chief support on the card sees Adam Azim back in action and he is highly motivated to perform in memory of his grandfather who recently passed away.

His opponent has a solid looking record, but Aram Fanilian does not seem to possess the biggest of punches and that should allow Azim to get forward and swarm him early.

The Ukrainian might be shocked by the speed and power of the younger fighter and Adam Azim can earn a victory in an early night.

MY PICKS: Liam Smith to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Florian Marku to Win Between 1-5 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Mark Heffron to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frazer Clarke to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Adam Azim to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing Update 2023: 39-70, - 20.72 Units (204 Units Staked, - 10.16% Yield)

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