One week you are crushing an opponent and putting up seventy points and in another you are giving up almost fifty points and losing to a Divisional rival.
Things can come at you very quickly in the NFL and that is the main reason an overreaction to a couple of solid wins is never the right approach to take.
The Miami Dolphins are still one of the top teams in the NFL and Vic Fangio should get more and more out of the Defensive unit as the season progresses, especially if he can get Jalen Ramsey back healthy in December. Before that the Offense will do their part to win more matches than they lose and the Dolphins are going to be fighting it out for the AFC East crown as well as PlayOff spots.
However, at the moment the Buffalo Bills, the three time AFC East defending Champions, remain the team to beat after laying down a marker to the Dolphins in Week 4. Not much went wrong for Josh Allen and his team in that victory over Miami as they prepare to travel to London to take on the Jaguars in Week 5 with most of the attention on them this week.
Week 4 proved to be an up and down week for the NFL Picks too- the late injury news regarding Deshaun Watson did not help the Cleveland Browns pick at all- but Week 5 is quickly ready to begin and the aim will be to bounce back.
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders Pick: Picking bad teams on a short week is a disaster, especially one coming in off a defeat like the one suffered by the Chicago Bears (0-4) in Week 4 of the 2023 season. Having a huge lead over the equally bad Denver Broncos at home should have meant a first win of the season, but the Bears somehow blew a 21 point lead and were beaten again with many question marks about the direction this franchise is taking.
Most of the questions are going to be aimed at Justin Fields at Quarter Back, who has failed to live up to his billing. There have been moments when he has looked like he will finally understand what is expected from a Quarter Back in the NFL, but far too often we have seen either poor decisions or execution from Fields and the Bears are likely to have a choice of moving on from him at the end of the season.
Winning games is important for Justin Fields, if only to avoid the Bears finishing with the top Draft Pick with Caleb Williams looking like the clear choice for any Quarter Back needy team. The Bears have given Fields an opportunity after trading out of the Number 1 Pick in the Draft earlier in the year, but they are unlikely to do the same if the struggles continue.
You can't blame the Quarter Back completely as he continues to operate behind a turnstile of an Offensive Line and with a lack of support outside of DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Khalil Herbert has been decent at Running Back, but Justin Fields has needed all of his scrambling ability with the team struggling to protect him when he drops back to throw.
Running the ball will be important for the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football and it does feel they will be able to do that against the Washington Commanders (2-2) who are coming into this one having lost two in a row. The defeat at Divisional rivals Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 will have really hurt in the manner it occurred and the Commanders Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run as well as they would have liked.
If the Bears can move the chains on the ground, it will at least give Justin Fields a bit more time to employ play-action and operate in third and short situations to try and attacking the Washington Secondary. Any time the Bears are in obvious passing situations, the Commanders have a pass rush that are likely to be spending a lot of time in the Chicago backfield, but moving ahead of the chains will give the Bears a chance of scoring points.
Turnovers have been a problem for the Chicago Offensive unit, but they should be able to move the ball in this one against a Washington team who have given up plenty of points this season.
The same can be said for the Washington Commanders as they prepare to play this porous Chicago Defensive unit.
Sam Howell has been given a chance to prove he can be the Quarter Back going forward for the Commanders, but he should be able to lean on the Running Backs to make sure he is in a favourable position on the field. The Commanders have a couple of Backs who are capable of big plays on the ground and it will also give the Offensive Line some respite in having to block too long in pass protection.
Even if they do have to do that, Washington will be helped by the fact that the Chicago Bears have produced very little pass rush pressure all season. It has exposed the banged up Secondary and Sam Howell does have some solid Receiving options that should be able to win their individual battles down the field.
Interceptions have been an issue for Sam Howell as much as Justin Fields this season, but he is going against a Secondary that has struggled to make big plays.
There is plenty of public support for the Washington Commanders and the favourite has covered in each of the last two Thursday Night Football games. However, Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears should be able to have plenty of Offensive success of their own and that should mean the road team are able to keep this one close, even on a short week and behind an emotional home loss.
The Commanders put in a huge effort to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 though and that should mean the Chicago disappointment in blowing a huge lead against the Denver Broncos is matched in the home locker room. Washington are about to embark on a pivotal run of games, including Divisional battles with the New York Giants and Eagles, and they may not be completely focused on the Chicago Bears as they look to recover from an Overtime loss.
The expectation is that Washington will still find a way to win, but the Bears can make enough Offensive plays to keep this one close. Al Michaels was not exactly glowing about having to call this game during the Green Bay-Detroit broadcast last week, but two Defensive units that have been struggling could allow the Offenses to produce an exciting game.
It was not the case in a 12-7 Chicago Bears win over Washington last year, which was also played on Thursday Night Football, but both teams look a little more settled Offensively. With holes in the Secondary, Justin Fields and Sam Howell should be able to deliver and the Running Backs are likely to have a big impact on the game too.
Taking the points with the road team looks the right play here with the expectation that Justin Fields can produce enough to at least keep the Bears within touching distance throughout. Eventually it may come down to a big throw from Sam Howell to win it for the home team, but the Commanders have only won a single home game by more than 6 points since the beginning of last season.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Pick: For the first time, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) are hosting back to back games in London and it is very difficult to know how that is going to impact this Week 5 contest.
They were a dominant winner at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 and Jacksonville Jaguars will move across North London to host this one at Tottenham Hotspur. Being away from home for a full week is going to be challenging for the Jaguars and the players, but it may feel a lot different than having to travel across the Atlantic Ocean.
That is the task for the Buffalo Bills (3-1) who are coming into this game behind a dominant win over the Miami Dolphins. It was the latter dealing with the headlines going into the Week 4 game in Buffalo, but the Bills are now the ones being talked about as the best team in the NFL.
This expectation can be challenging to deal with and Buffalo have the added issue of travelling to London to play this game.
You have to believe in this Buffalo Offensive unit that has bounced back from the disappointing defeat to the New York Jets in Week 1. Since then, the Bills have found a really good balance between the run and the pass and that is going to be key for Buffalo if they are going to finally reach the Super Bowl with Josh Allen guiding them at Quarter Back.
We know the dual-threat Allen will be able to make plays with his arm and legs, but Buffalo have also made a good effort to get James Cook going at Running Back. They should be able to earn plenty of yards on the ground against this Jacksonville Defensive Line allowing 4.5 yards per carry and that should only make things that much more comfortable for Josh Allen when he drops back to throw the ball.
He will certainly be throwing without much pressure in his face, and even less so if the Buffalo Offensive Line is paving the way for some big gains on the ground, while the Jaguars Secondary have had some issues stopping far weaker Quarter Backs than the one facing them in Week 5.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars Offense will find it tough to keep up if the Bills continue playing as well as they have been Defensively. This not the best match up for the Jaguars, who have struggled to establish the run this season and may not have much more success even against this vulnerable Buffalo Defensive Line.
The Jacksonville Quarter Back is another capable of getting out of the pocket and chasing First Down markers with his legs, but the Bills could be getting a boost from Von Miller who is back with the team. They are already getting some pressure up front so Trevor Lawrence may find it tough to find the time to throw, although the Bills Secondary has taken a big blow in losing Tre'Davious White to injury.
Jacksonville have quality Receivers that could make plays for the 'home' team and the time spent without the travelling should give the Jaguars a chance.
However, the Bills Offense is in good rhythm right now and the balance should mean they are able to win this one by around a Touchdown.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins Pick: No one associated with the Miami Dolphins (3-1) would have been getting carried away by the start to the season and that also means there will be a disappointment, but an attitude towards getting back to work after the blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4.
The defeat would have stung, but the Dolphins have a very good opportunity to bounce back in Week 5 when facing the struggling New York Giants (1-3). There was a huge amount of frustration on the sidelines as the Giants suffered another blowout home loss in a prime time setting and questions are already being asked about Daniel Jones and whether the new contract he signed was a mistake.
Saquon Barkley is proving to be a big miss for the Giants, but it is difficult to win games when you become a little predictable Offensively and when the Quarter Back is making some horrible mistakes.
It is also a major problem when the Offensive Line is struggling as much as this Giants one and it will be tough for the Giants to find consistency Offensively.
They should be able to have some success running the ball, as long as the Giants are still competitive, while there are some holes in the Miami Secondary without Jalen Ramsey. You would expect the Giants to show more than they did on Monday Night Football, but the Dolphins are going to want to make up for the way they performed in the Week 4 blowout in Buffalo and this Defensive Line can get into Daniel Jones' face whenever he is in obvious passing situations.
The pressure may actually be on the New York Giants Defense rather than the much maligned Offensive unit and that is because they will need to contain this very impressive Miami team from scoring the points to force Daniel Jones to have to throw.
In reality it feels like it is going to be very difficult for the Giants to stop Miami doing whatever they want on the Offensive side of the ball.
Last season running the ball was an issue for the Dolphins, but they have been able to hit the Home Run rushing Touchdown through their sheer speed. The absence of Terron Armstead is a blow to the Miami Offensive Line, but the Giants have struggled to stop the run all season and the Dolphins should be able to take any pressure from the shoulders of Tua Tagovailoa.
However, this also feels like a game in which the Quarter Back will be looking to just remind people of his capabilities after taking too many Sacks and making a few mistakes in the loss at Buffalo.
Tua Tagovailoa is likely going to be throwing out of a clean pocket and the Giants do not have many answers for Tyreek Hill or Jayden Waddle. Now they have added Chase Claypool to the speedsters in the Receiving corps and he is likely going to have a couple of opportunities to impress too with the Dolphins expected to move the ball quickly and efficiently for much of the afternoon.
Covering this kind of spread is not going to be easy, but Miami should be helped by the fact that the Giants are struggling on both sides of the field.
New York have suffered some blowout losses already this season and could wilt in the second half as Miami produce a big win to erase the memory of the defeat to Buffalo.
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions Pick: They may not have won a game this season and some may be questioning whether the right Quarter Back was selected in the Draft, but the Carolina Panthers (0-4) have been competitive. Head Coach Frank Reich has admitted that there will be 'teething problems' for his team playing with a rookie Quarter Back in Bryce Young, but they will want to give him all the time and playing experience that is possible.
This is going to be another tough learning experience for Young when travelling to the Detroit Lions (3-1) who beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 4 and been enjoying what is a mini-Bye having last played on Thursday Night Football.
The win at Lambeau Field has backed up the feeling that the Lions are the team to beat in the NFC North, but Dan Campbell will be keen to remind his players that they have not achieved anything yet. Losing to the Carolina Panthers would be a big setback and it does feel extremely unlikely in their home Stadium where the Detroit Lions have been very strong over the last twelve months.
Detroit won't be too concerned with Jared Goff's recent run of Interceptions in three games in a row, but they may choose to run the ball right at this Carolina Defensive Line, which has struggled this season. It should make things a little easier for Goff if he is playing in front of the chains behind a powerful Offensive Line that will give him time to make plays down the field.
Another boost for Jared Goff could be a potentially returning Jameson Williams to the Receiving corps- he has served his four game suspension, but is Questionable to play in this Week 5 game, although the feeling is that Williams will be suiting up and he gives the Lions passing game another crease.
The Panthers Secondary have not played badly, although the feeling is that Jared Goff and the Lions will give them plenty to think about.
What makes Detroit particularly dangerous is that they have a Defensive unit that is capable of backing up Goff and the Offensive players on show. They restricted the Atlanta Falcons to just 6 points with a struggling sophomore Quarter Back and it could be very difficult for Bryce Young to get much change out of this Lions Defense.
It might have been different if Young could rely on a strong support from Miles Sanders, but the Panthers Offensive Line have not really been able to open big holes for the former Eagles player. Add in the fact that this Lions Defensive Line is allowing just 3 yards per carry and the pressure is likely going to be on Bryce Young to try and make his plays with his arm.
Adam Thielen has given him some veteran support in the passing game, but Bryce Young is not going to have a lot of time to allow plays to develop, while the Lions Secondary have been playing at a high level too.
Pressure up front could lead to mistakes from the rookie and that is going to give the Detroit Lions to perhaps set up some short fields as they look to frank the win over rivals Green Bay.
Detroit were beaten by Seattle here earlier this season, but blowout home wins have become common for the Lions fans to witness and they can do enough to secure a double digit win in this one.
Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: There has been no firm indication from the Las Vegas Raiders (1-3), but Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to return at Quarter Back on Monday Night Football. His team are in need of a victory having lost three in a row and playing in the tough AFC, but they are favourites to win this game when hosting the Green Bay Packers (2-2).
Having Jimmy Garoppolo in at Quarter Back will obviously help, but the Vegas Offensive Line is going to have to pick up their level if the Raiders are going to fulfil their goals this season. For much of the season it has been a real struggle for the Raiders to establish the run and it is hard to make much of a case for them to do that here.
They are facing a Green Bay Defensive Line which has allowed some big plays on the ground, but the extra preparation time may see them focusing on stopping Las Vegas on the ground and seeing if Jimmy Garoppolo has the time to beat them down the field. The Secondary is where the strength of the Packers Defensive unit lies and the extra few days between the Week 4 and Week 5 games should mean some reinforcements are back to aid Green Bay that much more.
If they can keep the Raiders behind the chains, the Packers have the pass rush to take advantage of the problems the Offensive Line have had. Run blocking has been one problem, but Las Vegas have not bee effective at containing the pass rush and earning that pressure up front will certainly put Jimmy Garoppolo in a tough spot.
He does have Davante Adams looking to show his former team what they are missing and the Wide Receiver will always earn his numbers, but the Las Vegas Offense could lack some consistency when it comes to moving the ball. It is perhaps no surprise that the Raiders have not scored more than 18 points in any game played this season and that lack of production will give the Green Bay Packers a chance at earning the upset.
Inconsistency has been an issue for the Packers to deal with now that they are without Aaron Rodgers and firmly into the Jordan Love era.
Like the Raiders, Green Bay have not been able to establish the run as well as they would have liked and helped their inexperienced Quarter Back by giving him third and manageable situations. The Offensive Line was supposed to open some big lanes for AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones, but the latter has not been fully healthy, and the Packers are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season.
This usually means Jordan Love is having to allow his routes to develop in the passing game with longer yards to make up, but the Quarter Back has been given time when he is in the pocket. That could be a key difference between the two teams, although Love has to make sure he avoids the mistakes that could give the Raiders short fields.
Despite the three losses in a row, the Raiders have played well in the Secondary and they are facing a young Receiving corps run out onto the field by Green Bay. Christian Watson has returned and had a Touchdown in the loss to the Detroit Lions, and he should have more of an impact in Week 5 with another long week of practice under his belt.
It should give Jordan Love a bit more help and the few extra days should give Green Bay a chance to bounce back from an important Divisional loss. Having Las Vegas set as a favourite looks the wrong decision, even with Jimmy Garoppolo expected to be back in the line up.
The Packers have been competitive in games before the defeat to the Detroit Lions, but that is a team significantly better than this current version of the Raiders and the road team could make the points count.
MY PICKS: Chicago Bears + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 1 Point @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons - 2 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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