For all of the qualities and the long unbeaten run put together by the Georgia Bulldogs, they continue to win games by tight margins and a slow start could prove to be costly sooner than later. They are a team that has lost considerable talent to the NFL, but the Bulldogs do remain unbeaten and look to have another significant test to pass this week when taking on the Kentucky Wildcats.
The USC Trojans are another unbeaten team with high hopes behind their potential Heisman favourite at Quarter Back and someone who is being pencilled in as the Number 1 Pick in the next NFL Draft. However, they will have to answer questions about the Defensive unit that has allowed teams to claw their way back into games that the Trojans had looked to have controlled.
We still have three top teams in the Big Ten East that are likely going to have to fight amongst themselves for a place in the PlayOff, while the Big 12 cannot be happy to see the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners leading the way just months before they move to the SEC. At least this week those other Big 12 teams can enjoy seeing one of those teams lose when they face each other in the Red River Rivalry.
In general it was a quieter week in terms of the big losses, but Week 6 has gotten going and there are plenty of teams out there looking to make noise.
Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The Red River Rivalry is always a big deal, but perhaps it is much bigger in 2023 as the two schools close out their time in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC.
Both the Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) and Texas Longhorns (2-0) have already won two Conference games and they are favourites to meet in the Big 12 Championship Game later this year. However, the winning team in this potential first of two meetings will also push their claim to be invited into the College Football PlayOff and there is a lot on the line.
Redemption and revenge will be the kind of words bandied about on the Oklahoma campus in the build up to this game on a neutral field and there is little doubt that the Coaching Staff would have long circled the game. The Sooners Head Coach, Brent Venables, oversaw the embarrassing 49-0 loss to the Texas Longhorns last season, although it was the injury to Quarter Back Dillon Gabriel that completely turned the direction that game may have been heading.
Dillon Gabriel was not able to suit up on the day and the Sooners put up less than 40 passing yards in the big loss, but this year Gabriel is set to go. 15 Touchdown passes have been thrown in the five wins secured to open the season and and Dillon Gabriel has almost 1600 passing yards and just 2 Interceptions.
He has also shown an ability to scramble with 4 Touchdowns on the ground and this dual-threat is going to be key for the Sooners as they try and beat what may believe could be the best team in the Big 12. The Longhorns are allowing an average of just 12.8 points per game this season and any team that holds a win on the road at the Alabama Crimson Tide has to be given a huge amount of respect.
Much of the pressure could be on the arm of Dillon Gabriel considering the Sooners Offensive Line's issues in opening up big rushing holes this season. It has been even more difficult as Oklahoma have moved into the Conference part of their schedule, while the Texas Defensive Line has prided itself on being able to make Offenses a little one-dimensional.
It is still likely to be a game where Dillon Gabriel has success through the air, and the Offensive Line has been stronger when it comes to giving their Quarter Back time in the pocket. He is going to be facing a Longhorns Secondary that has held teams to less than 200 passing yards on the season on average, but Gabriel has shown he can make big plays even if he has yet to really face stellar competiton.
Texas are expected to be the more battle-hardened, but they have made easy work of their last two opponents to build some momentum up. Like Oklahoma, the Longhorns have to be very happy with the efforts of Quarter Back Quinn Ewers who has over 1300 passing yards with 10 Touchdowns and a single Interception thrown.
One of the big improvements has been in the Offensive Line too and they will give Ewers plenty of time, while also being able to bully opponents up front to set up a strong running game. This balance is likely going to be key for the Texas Longhorns who are searching for consecutive wins over the Oklahoma Sooners for the first time since 2009.
We have seen a much improved Oklahoma Defensive unit through the first five games of this season, but again it has to be noted that this is a big step up compared with previous opponents faced. The revenge factor will go a long way too and there is very little doubt that this is going to be much, much more competitive than 2022 when the Sooners were too short-handed.
Even then, the Longhorns should be able to cover this mark with their balanced Offensive play likely to make a big difference between the teams. The last five Red River Rivalry games played have all ended with the winning team doing so by at least 7 points and the feeling is that the Longhorns will be able to keep that trend going.
It also feels like the Sooners are not going to be helped by the fact their schedule has been weaker than the one Texas have negotiated and the Longhorns can frank that win over Alabama with another big one to impress the College Football PlayOff Committee later in the year.
Washington State Cougars @ UCLA Bruins Pick: The Pac-12 Conference has some talented, unbeaten teams who will all have PlayOff aspirations. The USC Trojans, Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks are all currently Ranked inside the top 10, but the Washington State Cougars (4-0) will be coming out of a Bye Week looking to show they belong.
People have been impressed by the Cougars who are Number 13 in the Rankings, but we will learn plenty about Washington State in the coming weeks as they play Arizona and Oregon following this road game at the UCLA Bruins (3-1).
Two weeks ago the Bruins could not find anything going Offensively in their loss to the Utah Utes and they will be looking to bounce back in their second Pac-12 game of the regular season. Like their visiting opponent, things could look pretty different for the Bruins if they can bounce back from the defeat in Utah when the Offense struggled to put up the numbers they would have hoped.
Dante Moore struggled at Quarter Back in the loss two weeks ago and the team in general struggled to convert Third Downs consistently enough to win the game in Utah. However, overall it has been a decent start to the season for the UCLA Bruins on this side of the ball and the Washington State Defensive unit is not up to the same level as the one the Utes bring onto the field.
One of the important aspects of this game is that Bruins can lean on the run to ease the pressure on their Quarter Back and it is going to be a tough test for the Cougars Defensive Line. For much of the season the Cougars have not been able to clamp down on the run and the Bruins are likely to keep Dante Moore in front of the chains in this game, which only makes things more comfortable for the Quarter Back.
It will also mean Dante Moore is able to throw without the kind of pass rush pressure in his face that could lead to mistakes. There are some holes in the Washington State Secondary and Moore has 8 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions this season and he can keep the UCLA Bruins moving up and down the field much more consistently than they did against Utah.
At the same time, the Cougars will be extremely confident in their own Offensive unit, which is not a surprise considering they are scoring almost 46 points per game this season. Wins over Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon State Beavers look solid and Cameron Ward is the latest Quarter Back representing the Cougars who is piling up the numbers through the air.
Cameron Ward has almost 1400 passing yards in four games and has thrown 13 Touchdown passes without an Interception to his name.
You have to credit some of the play-calling and execution when you think the Cougars Offensive Line have not been creating big running lanes. They are not expected to get much change out of the Bruins Defensive Line up front, but Cameron Ward has shown that he can get plenty out of his arm to keep the chains moving.
A tough Oregon State Secondary was not able to do much to stop Cameron Ward, who had over 400 passing yards in that upset win two weeks ago. With that in mind, even the strong Secondary play of the Bruins may not be enough to shut down the pass, which is going to mean more pressure on those up front to try and rattle Ward in the pass rush.
UCLA have gotten to the Quarter Back this season so will believe they can do the same here and that is likely to be key to the outcome of this game. If Cameron Ward has time, he will make big plays, but the Bruins might have the Offensive balance to sustain drives.
Keeping Ward and the Washington State Offense on the sidelines means they will not be able to score points and the Bruins do have enough to bounce back and cover in a home win. It should be a really fun game for the neutral to enjoy with both Offensive units going up and down the field, but the Bruins stronger Defensive performances might show up for them in key moments to determine the outcome of this Conference game.
Syracuse Orange @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: A strong start to the season which saw the Syracuse Orange (4-1) win four in a row meant there was a real sense of expectation when they hosted the Clemson Tigers in their first Conference game of the season. Even the layers made the Tigers a relatively small favourite on the road, but the Orange came up considerably short in their 17 point defeat.
Bouncing back is going to be a test for the Syracuse Orange as they prepare to face one of six teams in the ACC who have yet to lose a Conference game. The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-0) are rested since crushing the Pittsburgh Panthers on the road, while other wins over the South Carolina Gamecocks and Minnesota Golden Gophers have looked strong.
Outside of the Florida State Seminoles, the Tar Heels do look the best team in the Conference, although we may find out much about them when they face the Miami Hurricanes. That game is a potential distraction for North Carolina, although the extra preparation time for this game should mean the Tar Heels avoid overlooking the Syracuse Orange.
North Carolina will very much go as far as Drake Maye's arm will take them and the young Quarter Back is living up to the early hype around him. That does not mean there isn't any room for improvement and the Quarter Back has thrown 4 Interceptions this season, which is a disappointment when you think he 'only' has 5 Touchdown passes.
He can make plays with his legs though and that dual-threat ability will make it tough for the Syracuse Defensive unit. Using his legs will be important to just keep the Tar Heels in front of the chains and avoid Drake Maye having to throw in the kind of pressure that saw him Sacked five times in the win over the Panthers.
The Orange pass rush will feel they can get to Maye if he is in obvious passing situations, but stopping the pass could be tough after allowing 263 passing yards and 2 Touchdown passes to Cade Klubnik and the Clemson Tigers last week.
Interceptions could be key to the outcome of this game and both Quarter Backs have had some issues with turnovers through the air. The Orange Offensive unit could lessen their chances of making mistakes by running the ball and there have been some holes up front in the North Carolina Defensive Line which can be exploited by Syracuse.
Garrett Shrader is another dual-threat Quarter Back taking to the field and he will be key for Syracuse, both through the air and on the ground. Keeping the team ahead of the down and distance will be hugely important as the Orange try and bounce back from their loss to the Clemson Tigers.
The feeling is that Shrader is going to be much more effective on the ground than through the air with the Tar Heels Secondary playing at a good level. He does have stronger numbers than Drake Maye through the opening games with Garrett Shrader having 8 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions, but he was restricted to 200 total yards with 2 Touchdown passes and an Interception in the defeat to the Clemson Tigers.
There is little doubt that the Syracuse Orange had not really played any team up to the level of the Tigers in their four game winning run and the same could be said for the North Carolina Tar Heels. We will likely see what the Orange learned from the experience of last week, but North Carolina still have a bit too much talent for Syracuse and that can ultimately lead to a strong win.
When these teams last met in the 2020 season, North Carolina crushed Syracuse at home and a double digit win has to be expected from a stronger team.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Louisville Cardinals Pick: There will be a huge amount of regret for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) if the failure to attention at the end of the defeat to the Ohio State Buckeyes costs them a spot in the College Football PlayOff later in the year. All the team can do is bounce back and try and run the table with some big games to come, although they cannot afford to overlook the Louisville Cardinals (5-0) and begin to think about the game against the USC Trojans coming up in Week 7.
It is unlikely that the Fighting Irish will do that considering they are facing the early ACC leading Cardinals who have won three Conference games in their unbeaten start to the season. While you can only beat the teams you are facing on your schedule, it should be noted that the three ACC teams beaten by Louisville have a combined 7-8 record for the season and upcoming games against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Duke Blue Devils will really tell us a lot more about the Cardinals.
Mistakes might have ended up being costly for the Cardinals in their very narrow win over the NC State Wolfpack last week and those need to be cleaned up if Louisville are going to upset some of the stronger schools they will be facing. Jake Plummer (no not the former NFL player obviously) has thrown for over 1400 yards and has 11 Touchdown passes, but the 6 Interceptions are an issue and he was also fumbling the ball away in the 13-10 win over the Wolfpack.
Now Plummer, and the Cardinals Offensive unit, are going to be up against the best Defensive unit they would have faced this season, one that is giving up just 13 points per game on the season. Running the ball has made things easier for Jake Plummer at Quarter Back, but the Cardinals are facing a stout Defensive Line and it might be on Plummer to win this one with his arm.
However, he is throwing against a Secondary restricting teams to under 150 passing yards per game and who have covered Receivers without the strongest of pass rushes up front. Interceptions have been a feature of the Notre Dame Secondary play and they are likely going to have the players who can make enough big plays to help the Fighting Irish move into a position to win another tough road game.
Winning back to back games on the road is more challenging, but Notre Dame are playing with an extremely experienced Quarter Back and that has been seen in the performances. Sam Hartman has 14 Touchdown passes without throwing an Interception this season after a strong career as a member of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, while he is playing behind a strong looking Offensive Line that is capable of breaking open some big running lanes, as well as giving Hartman all of the time he needs to make his plays when throwing the ball.
You have to respect the numbers being produced by the Cardinals Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run, but it might be more difficult against a Quarter Back like Sam Hartman. The threat posed by Hartman may mean Louisville are choosing to have a few more Defenders in coverage, and that could subsequently mean the Fighting Irish Offensive Line is able to do what they want up front.
It is a difficult position for the Cardinals with the Secondary giving up some solid plays in the passing game and Notre Dame are capable of exposing the holes.
Creating turnovers is an advantage for Louisville, but Sam Hartman has been so good with the ball in 2023 that you have to favour the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win and cover in a second consecutive tough road game.
The Cardinals were able to play Notre Dame tough when these teams last met in 2020 and this is another game that is likely to be very competitive. However, this time the feeling is that the Fighting Irish will make enough plays on both sides of the ball to earn the win and the cover on the road.
Michigan Wolverines @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: There are four teams in the Big Ten East who have records of 4-0 or 5-0 and one of those is the Michigan Wolverines (5-0) who may be the best of all. They reached the College Football PlayOff last year and and the Wolverines look strong on both sides of the ball, which will make them favourites to win this Conference and earn their spot in the final four once more.
Another crushing Conference win has kept the momentum behind the Michigan Wolverines and they do have a schedule that gives the team a chance to continue grinding and improving. Defensively they have given almost nothing away and it has allowed the Wolverines to make enough plays on the other side of the ball to win games.
Next up is a trip to the Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-2) who are playing in the weaker Division in the Big Ten, although they will perhaps be a little disappointed the have not managed to win both Conference games played. Beating the Nebraska Cornhuskers saw the Golden Gophers fail to cover, but they were then beaten by the Northwestern Wildcats as a favourite.
The Golden Gophers will be the latest to try and find a way to consistently move the ball up the field and it feels like a challenge that is going to be beyond them on this side of the ball. Offensively much depends on how well they are able to run the ball, but the Minnesota Offensive Line might not be able to find a lot of room against this Wolverines Defensive Line which has restricted teams to 3.1 yards per carry.
It also doesn't help that Minnesota could be without Darius Taylor at Running Back and the Wolverines should be able to shift the pressure onto Athan Kaliakmanis at Quarter Back. He has thrown 5 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions this season and Kaliakmanis is going to be trying to find room in the Secondary against a Michigan team allowing just 160 passing yards per game on average.
Unlike the Golden Gophers, the Michigan Offensive Line is almost certainly going to be a lot more confident when it comes to establishing the run. Blake Corum is the main Offensive weapon for the Wolverines and he is likely to have another strong outing in Week 6 to make sure the Michigan Offense is in a position to make consistent plays.
With Corum likely to be moving the ball on the ground, JJ McCarthy should be able to have a comfortable evening at Quarter Back. He has already thrown 10 Touchdown passes and the Wolverines are expecting more from McCarthy, which could be evidenced in this game against this Golden Gophers Secondary that has struggled in a few of the five games played in 2023.
Michigan should be comfortable knowing they can pound the rock efficiently and the Wolverines have won the last two games against the Golden Gophers by 23 and 25 points. Covering this spread will not be easy, but Michigan's Defensive unit have been able to shut down opponents and that should give the road team every chance to win by around three Touchdowns.
It has not been a season of covers for the Michigan Wolverines, even if they have won all five games, but they did cover in their crushing win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. After grinding down the Golden Gophers, Michigan can pull away for a strong win in the second half as they keep the momentum going in what looks the best Division in College Football.
MY PICKS: Kansas State Wildcats - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 3 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 13 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 20 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats + 21 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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