We are edging closer and closer to the halfway mark of the NFL season and the injuries continue to pile up through the League.
While previous years have been relatively quiet at the trade deadline, especially compared to the other US Sports played, there could be a few more 'bigger' names on the move this time around.
Teams continue to separate from others and the Kansas City Chiefs have to be considered the favourites in the AFC to represent the Conference in yet another Super Bowl. As exciting a time as it has been for Miami fans, the Dolphins loss last week in Philadelphia is the second time they have been beaten in a 'statement making' game having also been beaten by the Buffalo Bills and it should be right to question who Miami have beaten.
Week 9 will give them another shot when taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany, but the Dolphins will not want to overlook the New England Patriots with potential key injuries on both sides of the ball. They very much look like a PlayOff team, but you will have to beat some quality teams to have a really good run in the post-season and the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills will give Miami further opportunities to prove themselves between now and the end of the regular season.
Back to back losses for the San Francisco 49ers have slowed the hype train in the NFC, but there won't be too many concerns in the NFC West, which looks a weak Division. The Seahawks may have something to say about that, but injuries are a bigger issue for the 49ers right now and they will be better for the upcoming Bye Week that will allow players to just get over some of the issues affecting them.
The double header against the Seattle Seahawks will sandwich a game with the Philadelphia Eagles and is likely going to be a pivotal part of the season for the 49ers, but they should be ready to compete by the end of November when that run begins.
A worst case scenario is that the 49ers have to enter the team as a Wild Card team, but that has not bothered them in the past and they will be there or thereabouts come January.
Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions make up a stronger than expected Conference, although we are still several weeks away from really knowing what teams will look like entering January.
It has been a solid three week run for the NFL Picks after the poor showing in Week 4 and I am hopeful the momentum can carry through another week. The last couple of weeks have been decent, if unspectacular, but avoiding the really poor weeks is the key to keeping things ticking along.
Week 8 Picks will begin with the Thursday Night Football game and further selections will be added to the thread over the next couple of days.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There was a feeling within that the Buffalo Bills (4-3) might be vulnerable to some of the better teams they could face in the NFL, but even then the expectation was that they would beat the New England Patriots. It quickly became clear in Week 7 that they were not going to cover a big spread on the road, although the actual outright upset was a surprise with the Bills remaining in second place in the AFC East.
They are scheduled to play on a short week with a Thursday Night Football showing on prime time, but that may not be completely ideal for the Buffalo Bills. There is almost no doubt that Josh Allen is not operating at 100% and the banged up Defensive unit have had some serious problems making plays, both issues which will be highlighted on a short week.
A late Bye Week is not ideal, but Buffalo will be earning a mini-Bye between this game and the one in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals and that should mean the home team leave it all on the line to avoid falling back to 0.500 for the season.
It looks like a pretty good opponent to face too with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) losing three of four games, including a tough loss in Week 7 against Divisional rivals the Atlanta Falcons.
The Buccaneers have fallen behind the Falcons for the NFC South lead, but they will travel with some confidence despite less than positive results of late. Tampa Bay have won both road games played this season at the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints and they will feel they can do enough Offensively to at least challenge the Buffalo Bills in this game.
A tough run against non-Conference opponents is coming up for the Buccaneers and they will need Baker Mayfield to pick up his level having slumped in recent outings. The Quarter Back was always going to be challenged in trying to replace Tom Brady, but Mayfield does have some solid Receiving options around him and he plays behind an Offensive Line that has given him time in the pocket.
The problem has been that the O-Line has not been nearly as effective at helping the Buccaneers establish the run and it is almost always tougher to continue to make passing plays with success from third and long spots, no matter the time being afforded.
And while we have seen some teams really crack the run game open against the Bills, they have shown some improvement in recent games to believe they can contain the Buccaneers threat on the ground. It should give Buffalo's pass rush an opportunity to try and get after Baker Mayfield and that remains the strength of the Bills Defensive unit which has lost some key players at all three levels.
Even then, Baker Mayfield should be able to find the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton and it should mean the Buccaneers are able to move the chains. That does offer a chance of a backdoor cover too, at the worst, although trusting this Tampa Bay Offensive unit on a short week is not easy when you think they have been held to less than 14 points in half of their games.
It is still a big spread to cover for the Buffalo Bills and especially if Josh Allen is not quite feeling himself. Since the win over the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo have not looked on the same page with one another and this is going to be another game where the pressure is squarely on the shoulder of the Quarter Back.
The Bills Offensive Line have not been powering open too many holes for James Cook and Josh Allen may not be so keen to run if he is feeling banged up. Trying to establish the run against this Tampa Bay Defensive Line would have been tough, but to do so on a short week and with issues on the Offensive Line is perhaps asking too much from them.
So much like the Buccaneers, the Buffalo Bills will be looking to their Quarter Back to make throws into the opponent Secondary and Josh Allen will have opportunities to do that successfully. He has been given plenty of time in pass protection, again like Baker Mayfield, and there are some areas to exploit in the Tampa Bay Secondary as long as Allen can avoid the poor turnovers he has been responsible for in recent games.
Tampa Bay have played pretty well Defensively in the most part, but the likes of Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff showed what is possible against them.
Only the injury concern holds back the belief in Josh Allen being able to lead Buffalo to the same, but the Bills are the stronger team and the short week favours them in that regards. Josh Allen is also hoping to bounce back from consecutive losses, which should mean a big effort to get through this game successfully, and it is noted how Tampa Bay have been comfortably beaten when facing the top teams on their schedule through to this point of the season.
Tempered enthusiasm aside, the feeling is that the Bills come out with something to prove on both sides of the ball and they can put a strong win on the board. The backdoor cover is a potential concern, but Baker Mayfield has not exactly been lighting things up and the Bills should have enough to win this one by double digits and remain firmly alongside the Miami Dolphins in the Division.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans Pick: If someone had said at the start of the season that by the time this Week 8 game rolls around that one of the teams would be leading their Division and the other would be in the basement, most would have expected this to be the other way around. Instead, the Atlanta Falcons (4-3) are looking to consolidate their place leading the NFC South, while the Tennessee Titans (2-4) are struggling through injury.
There has been a suggestion that the Titans could be looking to become involved in the trade market and begin shaping the team for 2024, with some even pointing at Derrick Henry as a piece that could be moved on.
He has been given some security and a chance to prepare without distraction having been told that the Titans will not explore a trade, but it is not an ideal situation to be in for Derrick Henry. In fact he may actually wish to move to a potential contender with the Titans struggling and going into this game without their starting Quarter Back.
Veteran Ryan Tannehill is out and that means Tennessee will be giving young Quarter Back Malik Willis and rookie Will Levis an opportunity to impress. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has suggested both could share snaps in this game, but that means more pressure on Derrick Henry and the running game to at least give their inexperienced Quarter Backs a chance by pushing them into third and manageable spots on the field.
The Offensive Line have been able to open some big holes for the ground game, but this is not going to be an easy game for Tennessee. While there will be confidence that they can establish the run, they will have to respect how well this Atlanta Defensive Line have played all season and who continue to show their strength up front in the trenches.
It would not be a big surprise if they really focus on shutting down Derrick Henry, as much as possible anyway, and try and force Tennessee to have to rely on the pass. Much like all levels of this Atlanta Defense, the signings made have strengthened the team considerably compared with 2022 and the Falcons have also managed to bring some solid pass rush pressure too.
Improvements Defensively are one thing, but Atlanta have won two of their last three games thanks to a little more success for their Offense.
Desmond Ridder is still making some major mistakes on the field and his red zone turnovers almost cost the Falcons another game last week. Overall the numbers are better, but those turnovers can be a killer and Ridder will be throwing into a Tennessee Secondary that have played the pass pretty well in recent games, despite the setbacks.
The Titans Defensive Line have had a few more problems stopping the run and Atlanta should have Bijan Robinson back this week having failed to inform the League that he was suffering an illness in Week 8. He is also proving to be a solid safety blanket for Desmond Ridder in the passing game and the Falcons could put together enough Offensively to earn another road win.
Mike Vrabel has proved himself to be a Head Coach who can be very good at covering as an underdog and his team will likely be motivated by being set as a home underdog in Week 8.
The Falcons have not been the best favourite to back of late, but they can get the better of an inexperienced Quarter Back and perhaps force a couple of mistakes that gives them the edge. Of course it also means relying on Desmond Ridder to avoid the red zone mistakes he has made over the last couple of weeks, but having Bijan Robinson back and facing a Titans Defensive Line having one or two issues should give the Atlanta Falcons the edge here.
New York Jets @ New York Giants Pick: There were huge expectations in New York City at the beginning of this season and both of these teams would have been targeting PlayOff spots.
Last season the New York Giants (2-5) not only played in the post-season, but they won a PlayOff game and looked like they were fully behind Daniel Jones at Quarter Back. The New York Jets (3-3) may not have made the PlayOffs, but signing Aaron Rodgers looked to take them forward and excitement was high.
Both Quarter Backs will be missing for this game and it has been tough work for both the Giants and Jets, although the latter at least have some momentum out of their Bye Week having won back to back games.
Keeping in touch with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills in the AFC East is going to be difficult, but the Bye Week has allowed the Jets to just get a couple of key players back. The fans are still hoping a trade can be made to upgrade Zach Wilson at Quarter Back, although nothing has moved on that front and the feeling is that the team are going to stick with Wilson at least until Aaron Rodgers is able to return from a bad injury suffered just seconds into his first start for his new team.
This feels like a game in which the Jets can make life easier for the struggling Quarter Back and that is by leaning on Breece Hall and the Offensive Line. In recent games, the New York Jets have been able to hand the ball to Hall and rip off some big gains and they are facing a Giants Defensive Line that has not been able to stop the run.
Zach Wilson should then have the time to make some positive throws down the field, although Wilson has been content in picking up yards through his check down options. However, running the ball well should put the Jets in front of the chains on this side of the ball and it could lead to another win over a team from the NFC East in this Stadium.
With Daniel Jones expected to miss out, and potentially moved on at the end of the season, the New York Giants will once again go with veteran Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back. He did help the Giants to end their losing run with a win over the struggling Washington Commanders last week, but this week Tyrod Taylor will be going up against a very good Jets Defensive unit.
Injuries on the Offensive Line means the Giants have not been nearly as effective running the ball as their opponent and they may not be able to take advantage of some of the issues that the Jets Defensive Line have experienced of late. Saquon Barkley is a very good Running Back and can make some big plays on the ground, but the consistency could be lacking and that puts plenty of pressure on Tyrod Taylor's shoulders.
Tyrod Taylor can move, but he has experienced the same problems as Daniel Jones and that is getting very little time in the pocket before this Giants Offensive Line allows pass rushers to get through. He is going to be put under pressure any time the Giants are in obvious passing situations and Tyrod Taylor is going to be facing a strong New York Jets Secondary which will be bolstered by returning players.
Trusting the New York Jets is not easy because of Zach Wilson at Quarter Back, but they are likely to have a lot more consistency running the ball compared with the New York Giants.
This gives the 'road' team a real edge and the Jets Defensive unit can make some big plays against Tyrod Taylor and see the Jets win and cover. They have not been the best coming out of a Bye Week, but this looks a good match up for the AFC representative from Gotham and they can make it three wins in a row and the Jets are looking for a fourth cover in succession.
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: These two teams share the same 4-2 record for the season and both are expecting to be involved in the PlayOff shake up in their respective Conferences.
A key to any successful season is dealing with injuries in the best possible way and the big question for the Cleveland Browns is whether Deshaun Watson can get healthier at Quarter Back and rediscover the kind of level he displayed with the Houston Texans. Off field allegations means his career had an unexpected break before Watson was traded to the Browns, but he has only flashed some of the skills he had shown as a Texan and has been banged up this season.
PJ Walker will be leading Cleveland into Seattle having guided the team to a very narrow win over the Indianapolis Colts last week. A couple of non-Conference games are on deck for the Browns before getting back into it with Divisional rivals and Walker is being asked to manage the team rather than win games.
Leaning on a strong Defensive unit and a powerful run game is the plan, but the Browns are expected to be challenged on both sides of the ball by the Seahawks.
We are still to really know how good this Seattle Defense is considering the relatively weak schedule faced, but they have looked strong along the Defensive Line and have been able to generate a solid pass rush.
Both of these elements could be at play in Week 8 and they could force the Browns to have to rely on the PJ Walker play-making ability more than Cleveland would like to do.
Geno Smith is also expected to have a tough game, but he may be backed up with. little more consistency on the ground. All teams will find it tough to run the ball at the Cleveland Browns, but recent games have suggested that there are one or two more holes up front that can be exploited and keeping Smith in third and manageable spots is the key to the outcome of this game.
Anything else and Smith will be under the same kind of pressure that his opposite number is likely to face, while the Quarter Back will not be too keen on throwing into this Secondary from obvious passing positions. Deception can be the key and operating out of play-action would make things that much easier for Geno Smith, who will have a huge target back this week in DK Metcalf.
Turnovers will be big in this game and the Seahawks may just be able to win that battle and create a couple of short fields to edge this important non-Conference contest.
Only Gardner Minshew's mistakes cost Indianapolis a win over Cleveland last week so a slightly cleaner display from Geno Smith would be enough. He is not always th most trustworthy to produce that, especially under pressure like Smith will face in this game, but the Seahawks are at home and look in a good spot to stay with the NFC West leading San Francisco 49ers.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions Pick: There is always very little error being in the same Division as a powerhouse like the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) are one of three teams with losing records in the AFC West. They are the closest of the three to the Chiefs, but Raiders fans already have to accept that the best route into the post-season will be via the Wild Card places.
In a tough Conference, the expectation is that nine wins will be needed, at a minimum, to secure a Wild Card berth and that means the room for error is already closing on the Raiders. Losing to the Chicago Bears in Week 7 is a real disappointment and now the Raiders have to visit the Detroit Lions (5-2) on Monday Night Football, a team looking to show they are a lot stronger than their own performance last week.
Being blown out in the manner they were at the Baltimore Ravens will have stung, but the Lions only trail the Philadelphia Eagles in terms of most wins in the NFC this season. They will be looking to bounce back from the heavy loss in much more favourable conditions at home and the Lions can put their all into this game knowing they are set for a Bye Week.
Losing would have hurt, but Dan Campbell and the Lions know they have a very kind schedule from here on out and there will still be a hope that they can finish with the best record in the NFC. Winning games like this one are important towards that goal and Detroit have been much stronger at home having won five of their last six games here.
Jared Goff might not have David Montgomery behind him in the backfield, but the Lions saw enough from rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to believe they can find some balance in this one. It will be important to run the ball well to make sure the disruptive Las Vegas pass rushers are not flooding the backfield in the obvious passing situations and the Lions have an Offensive Line that is capable in run blocking.
Jahmyr Gibbs should have a strong game on the ground and is also going to be a key Receiver when Jared Goff needs to look for a safety blanket. The Raiders Secondary has played well so they may think they can move players down to the line of scrimmage to stop the run, but it also should be noted that this is the one of the tougher passing Offenses that Las Vegas will have played this season.
At home Jared Goff is even more comfortable so establishing the run should set the Quarter Back up for a solid game. It may also see the Raiders pass rush eased just enough to help Goff make those plays down the field having been given a number of very good Receiving options by some solid Detroit scouting.
The Raiders will have Jimmy Garoppolo back this week, but the Quarter Back is facing a tough challenge and has not sparked the Offensive unit as imagined having been given the keys to take over from Derek Carr.
It really has not helped that the Raiders Offensive Line have not been able to provide spaces for Josh Jacobs on the ground and that has made Las Vegas too one-dimensional and easy to plan against. The Running Back has gotten plenty of touches as a Receiver too, but so much of the Offensive game-plan is based about running the ball effectively and it has been a real problem for the Raiders.
They are not expected to have a lot more joy in this one and that will put pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo- throwing out of third and long situations is tough at the best of times, but even more so when the Offensive Line is not offering up a lot of time and now facing a Lions pass rush that could be in the Quarter Back's face every time he steps back to throw.
Recent performances have been stronger from the Offensive Line and Davante Adams is a reliable Receiver down the field so there is going to be some opportunities for Jimmy Garoppolo. Interceptions have been the backbreaker for the Quarter Back though and this Lions Secondary will feel they can make the plays that can give their team every chance to win and cover the spread.
The last three Detroit losses have been followed by big home wins and the team can put in their all knowing there are some rest days coming up.
Las Vegas have produced some decent numbers, but turnovers have hurt them and they continue to make mistakes when picking up some momentum. Struggles to run the ball can only favour the Lions and Dan Campbell's men have been much stronger at home so they can be backed to secure a big bounce-back victory on Monday Night Football.
MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
New York Jets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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