For the first time since 2017 there are no unbeaten teams left in the NFL going into Week 7 and there does look to be a healthy number of contenders that will have serious Super Bowl ambitions as long as they can stay healthy.
In the weeks ahead we will find out a bit more about those teams with some big games coming up, beginning with the huge Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins Sunday Night Football effort this week. They might not be Conference rivals, but two 5-1 teams that will believe they could meet again in February may be looking to put down an early marker and that looks like being a top game to round out the Sunday portion of the Week 7 schedule.
Injuries are beginning to pile up through the NFL and the trade deadline is fast approaching with names like Kirk Cousins and Saquon Barkley high on the rumour list. Changes could certainly improve the appeal of some of the teams below the leading lights in the early Super Bowl race and it will certainly be something to keep an eye upon as we continue racing to the halfway mark of the regular season.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: It tells you all you need to know about how badly things are going for the New England Patriots (1-5) that there is serious talk that the team may decide to move on from Head Coach Bill Belichick at the end of this season. Ever since Tom Brady departed Foxboro, Belichick has struggled to identify the right replacement at Quarter Back, while his Defensive prowess has not been good enough to cover up the problems on the other side of the ball.
The last three losses have encapsulated the problems as the Patriots have been battered in all facets of the game and the season already looks like it is unsalvageable in the incredibly difficult AFC East.
In Week 7, the New England Patriots are hosting the Buffalo Bills (4-2) who were not at their best in winning their primetime game in Week 6. Josh Allen was banged up in the win over the New York Giants, but he is expected to earn the start at Quarter Back and has led the Bills to a dominant record against the New England Patriots in the post-Brady era.
A Thursday Night Football game in Week 8 is a potential distraction for Buffalo, but you have to believe this game is more important being a Divisional one, while the upcoming game is against a non-Conference opponent back at home.
This is a big spread and the backdoor cover has to be a concern considering the injuries that the Buffalo Bills have on the Defensive side of the ball. However, it is very difficult to believe Mac Jones and this poor New England Offense is capable of putting together the consistency needed to score a lot of points having averaged just 6.7 points per game in their three game skid.
The Patriots did manage 17 points in the loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week, but they look a mess at the moment and Mac Jones is not playing with a lot of confidence. Bill Belichick has signed Malik Cunningham onto the main roster and he may be the backup to Jones on Sunday, which means the Quarter Back will be feeling the short leash around his neck.
Establishing the run has been a real issue for the entire New England Offensive unit and that would have certainly helped the Patriots Quarter Back. Even though we have seen teams make some significant gains on the ground against the Bills Defensive Line, you cannot have a lot of faith in the Patriots being able to do the same from what we have seen.
Offensive Line issues has made it difficult to run the ball, but also offer very little protection to Mac Jones when he steps back to throw and that has certainly impacted the passing game. It should be more of the same in this one with the Bills bringing a powerful pass rush into Foxboro and that will see Jones have to make some quick reads and, ultimately, likely lead to some mistakes.
The question around the covering of the spread is less to do with how the Buffalo Bills Defensive unit will play, but whether the Offense will get back up to speed after a couple of less than impressive displays.
Josh Allen's shoulder is a concern, while the Bills have not been able to run the ball nearly as efficiently as they would like to ease some of the pressure on the Quarter Back. Running the ball outside of designed Quarter Back runs will be difficult in this game, but short fields could be given to Buffalo by the Defense making plays on Mac Jones and that should help all around.
And for all the Offensive Line issues in opening up the running lanes, they have been able to give Josh Allen a clean pocket and plenty of time when he has dropped back to throw. Recent games has seen the Patriots struggle to take down the opposition Quarter Back so there should be an opportunity for Allen to continue his dominance of this AFC East rival.
The Patriots Secondary has not been able to play the pass as well as they would like thanks to the limited pressure being created up front and so this is a big chance for Buffalo to put a statement win on the board.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Buffalo have beaten New England in six of seven meetings and the last five wins have all been by double digits. The last three games played at Foxboro have ended in 29, 12 and 14 point wins for the Buffalo Bills and they can secure a big win on the road again to stay hot on the heels of the Miami Dolphins in the Division.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Some believe the Detroit Lions (5-1) may be the best team in the NFC after a strong start to the 2023 season to follow the strong end to 2022. Winning games on the road has always been the question about Jared Goff and the Offense, but they have proven they can do that this season and the Lions are clear in the NFC North.
Back to back road games is never easy and that is the test for the Lions as they prepare to face the Baltimore Ravens (4-2), the leaders of the AFC North. The Ravens are back in the United States after beating the Tennessee Titans in London in Week 6 and so this is not an ideal situation for them either.
The AFC North is going to be a Division that likely goes down to the wire, but the Baltimore Ravens will believe they can be the team to beat as long as the Offensive unit can just find a bit more rhythm.
Defensively this is going to be a real test for the Ravens against the best Quarter Back they have faced in 2023, but Baltimore will know that the Lions are not quite as potent outside of the Dome. That has to help, while the injury to David Montgomery is a tough one to absorb just prior to facing this Baltimore Defensive Line that has prided itself on clamping down on the run.
Recent teams have had a bit of success pounding the run, but without Montgomery, the Lions are not expected to do the same and the pressure will be on Jared Goff to keep the chains moving.
He is well protected for the most part by his Offensive Line, but Goff could find the time in the pocket limited considering how much pressure Baltimore have been able to generate up front. If the Ravens can slow the run, it will give the pass rushers that opportunity to try and break into the backfield and force Jared Goff to go through his progressions that much more quickly than he has become used to doing.
There are some solid Receiving options for Jared Goff and shutting down the Lions completely feels unlikely. However, the Ravens Secondary will certainly believe they can match up to those if they don't need to cover for too long and Baltimore have been a tough team to throw against so far this season, although again it should be noted that they have not played the best Quarter Backs nor the most healthy.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens Offensive unit will have to still score points if they are going to win this game and they may not match up as well as they would like with this Detroit Defense.
The Defensive Line have been strong up front and clog up the running lanes and that is going to present a challenge to Baltimore who are always keen to establish the run first and foremost. Having a Quarter Back like Lamar Jackson means they can design plays for him to make with his legs, which will give the Lions something else to think about, but the pressure will be on Jackson to try and make his plays to his inconsistent Receiving options.
Mark Andrews is still a big part of the corps, while Zay Flowers has flashed in his rookie season, but there is still some inconsistency in the drives and the Lions Secondary are good enough to stall some of those.
Both teams will have their moments in this one, but the slight lean has to be with the Baltimore Ravens back at home in a game that probably means a bit more to them than the Lions. There is still that feeling that Detroit are not as strong on the road and especially not outdoors and the Ravens might just be able to grind this one out with an important victory.
The Ravens were beaten in their last home game in an upset, but they will be very focused on Detroit considering the press clippings about the Lions and a strong Defensive effort can help the home team secure the victory and cover.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The top of the NFC South is at stake in this Week 7 game after the New Orleans Saints fell below 0.500 following a disappointing defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football.
A tie cannot be completely dismissed, but the reality is that the winner of this game will finish on top of the competitive, albeit underwhelming Division.
Three losses in four games have dropped the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) into second place, but they are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) who were well beaten at home last week by the qualities of the Detroit Lions. Both teams have questions at Quarter Back and the Falcons and Buccaneers will instead be relying on their strong Defensive units to give them a chance to win.
It was the Quarter Back play from Desmond Ridder that cost the Atlanta Falcons in their Week 6 defeat to the Washington Commanders and some are still suggesting that a trade with the Minnesota Vikings for Kirk Cousins should be explored. It does feel like Ridder is not going to be able to get the best of the talent Atlanta have on both sides of the ball, although Head Coach Arthur Smith feels there has been enough of an improvement in the passing game to still believe in the young Quarter Back.
The passing numbers have not looked too bad in recent games, but that is also because Desmond Ridder will get the ball out of his hands and have the skill players pick up yards after the catch. The Interceptions being thrown when pushing is a real concern for Ridder and the Atlanta Falcons and he will have to be careful in this one against the Buccaneers Secondary.
Desmond Ridder will be under pressure to make plays because the Falcons are unlikely to get a lot of change out of running the ball against this tough Tampa Bay Defensive Line. Bijan Robinson has looked every bit the Running Back the Falcons hoped they had Drafted, but his best work in this game is likely going to be as a Receiver coming out of the backfield, while Desmond Ridder does have Drake London and Kyle Pitts to make plays against an aggressive Buccaneers Secondary.
Running the ball efficiently has also been a problem for the Tampa Bay Offensive Line and, like the other side of the ball, the Defensive Line of the Falcons is expected to dominate the trenches. Clamping down on the run has been key for Atlanta, who are allowing just 20 points per game this season, and the improvement in all three levels of the Defense means it also going to be a real test for Baker Mayfield when throwing against this team.
Like his opposite number, Baker Mayfield does have some solid Receiving options that can make plays for him, while he has been given a bit more protection in the passing game compared with Desmond Ridder. That should help, but Mayfield has been a polarising figure since entering the Quarter Back and his performances have generally underwhelmed.
Facing an Atlanta Secondary that has allowed fewer than 190 passing yards on average in their last three games and likely out of third and long situations on the field is going to make life very hard for Baker Mayfield.
The Buccaneers have won three in a row at home against the Atlanta Falcons, but Tom Brady is no longer leading the Offense.
A Thursday Night Football game at the Buffalo Bills is coming up and Tampa Bay might be a little distracted, even in this Divisional game, so the situation is not ideal for the Buccaneers.
It is incredibly difficult to trust Desmond Ridder to avoid the backbreaking turnovers that have blighted him, but he does look like the Quarter Back that will have more spaces to exploit. The Falcons Defense can at least contain Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers Offensive weapons and that might give the narrow edge with the road team who can use the points being given to them to cover.
MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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