We are getting into the middle of the College Football regular season and the challenges that Conference games bring to even the very best teams around will begin to whittle down the choices that the PlayOff Committee will have when it comes down to selecting their final four teams.
The Georgia Bulldogs will almost certainly be selected if they remain unbeaten or reach the SEC Championship Game without a defeat in the regular season. An improving Alabama Crimson Tide may feel they will be invited in if they can run the table and then beat the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game, especially with some of the other major Conferences unlikely to provide an unbeaten Champion.
The Pac-12 looks most likely to do that with three unbeaten teams leading the way, but by the end of Week 7 there is a chance that two of those teams are handed their first loss of the season.
We have the same situation at the top of the ACC and Big Ten right now, but the latter has their best three teams in the same Division and likely means they will be feasting on one another, while only Florida State have really looked a confident team that could remain unbeaten in the ACC compared with North Carolina and Louisville.
Perhaps a team outside of the Power 5 Conferences will be given an opportunity like the Cincinnati Bearcats were if the top Conferences struggle to offer Champions with one or fewer losses, but at this time of the season the focus has to be on game by game.
Any upset could be very difficult to overcome when the PlayOff Committee comes to choosing their final four so it is imperative for teams and Head Coaches to avoid looking too far ahead.
Stanford Cardinal @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: There is still an excitement in Boulder that has not been there for some time, but the Colorado Buffaloes (4-2) have been given a reminder of the level of expectation that Head Coach Deion Sanders has and will continue to have going forward.
The two losses to the Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans have underlined the point that this is a first year project for Coach Prime and his school and that the Buffaloes still have a considerable gap to bridge. Over the coming years Colorado will be able to bring in plenty of talent who will want to play for Sanders, but the standards set by the Head Coach were noted after the narrow WIN over the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Simply put, Deion Sanders did not believe his team played up to the level he knows they can reach and even a win was not going to be enough for the Head Coach to accept any drop in standards he has set.
They play on Friday in Week 7 of the College Football season and the Colorado Buffaloes are a couple of wins away from becoming Bowl eligible. The Covid hit 2020 season saw the Buffaloes finish with a winning record in the Pac-12, although they played just four Conference games that season, and Deion Sanders will have targeted a first winning record in a full season since 2016.
Moving back to 2-2 will be important before the Buffaloes enter a Bye Week and they are favourites to do that with a victory over the Stanford Cardinal (1-4) who are in the midst of another really poor season. Troy Taylor will be given time having taken over as Head Coach from David Shaw who had overseen three losing years in a row in full seasons played by Stanford with the exception being the 2020 season.
Troy Taylor will have appreciated the extra time to prepare for this Week 7 game and Stanford will want to show they are a lot better than the heavy blowout losses to USC and Oregon have suggested. They did push the Arizona Wildcats in a single point loss at home, and the Cardinal have been on a Bye Week where they would have spent considerable time trying to clear up some of the mistakes made.
One of the big problems has been the Stanford Offensive Line, which has not opened up holes for the rushing attack to have success and who have not been any better when it comes to pass protection. It has been a long time since the Stanford Cardinal could point out to having stellar play from their Quarter Back, but neither Ashton Daniels nor Justin Lamson are being supported with very little time before the pass rush comes crashing into them.
It is a real problem when the Cardinal are becoming easy to game plan against and an inability to run the ball with any kind of consistency has left the Quarter Back, whoever that may be, in obvious passing situations. Stanford have struggled to keep the pass rushers out of the backfield and allow Receivers to run their routes down the field and it is unlikely that there will be more time when facing this Colorado puss rush in Week 7.
Despite those Offensive struggles, the Stanford Cardinal have had extra preparation time and they are facing a Buffaloes team that has struggled Defensively once moving into Conference play. The Secondary have not been helped by the continued absence of Travis Hunter and the two-way player is unlikely to be risked this week even though he is in back in practice.
Instead it will likely be up to the pass rushers to cause enough disruption to at least force some mistakes out of the Cardinal Quarter Back. The Buffaloes Defensive Line have also played the run well enough to believe they can make Stanford a little one-dimensional Offensively, and that could be key in making stops and getting the ball into the hands of the power Colorado Offensive unit.
Running the ball has been a serious problem for the Buffaloes as much as Stanford this season, but Shedeur Sanders has shown he can overcome that with his ability at Quarter Back. The numbers have been impressive, even in the step up to Pac-12 play, and even more so when you think Sanders has been given extremely limited support running the ball and is playing behind a Buffaloes Offensive Line that has resembled a turnstile at times.
Both of these aspects could be against the norm for Colorado in this home game.
Stanford have been struggling in the trenches on both sides of the ball and the Defensive Line has been gashed for some big gains on the ground, while the Cardinal pass rush has barely shown a pulse. It could mean the Buffaloes are able to have a bit more success getting in front of the chains and protecting Shedeur Sanders when he drops back to throw, and that may spell bad news for the road team.
Shedeur Sanders will have been pretty confident he could find some big plays in the passing game anyway, but being in third and manageable and just having a bit more time in the pocket could mean the Quarter Back is able to carve up Stanford.
Defensively the Buffaloes have not played well enough to be asked to cover spreads like this one, but it does feel a good match up for Colorado. They have beaten Stanford three times in a row and that was before this current group got together and Deion Sanders may get a reaction from his players after voicing his unhappiness with some of the performance last week.
As long as the Buffaloes remain focused, they should be strong enough to enter the Bye Week behind perhaps their largest win of the season.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: They are still unbeaten thanks to a strong second half showing in the victory over the Maryland Terrapins in Week 6, but the Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) are not completely satisfied with their overall performances. They will be heading on the road looking to avoid a Conference upset and the Buckeyes will be trying to ignore the next game on deck.
In Week 8 the Buckeyes will be hosting the Penn State Nittany Lions, another unbeaten team not only in the Conference, but in the same Division as Ohio State. The big game with the Michigan Wolverines may yet decide which of these teams is going to represent the Big Ten East in the Championship Game, and perhaps the College Football PlayOff, but fans of the Buckeyes will know how important any defeat could potentially be when it comes to the Selection Committee.
An unbeaten Ohio State were beaten by the Purdue Boilermakers (2-4) when last visiting West Lafayette, Indiana, and it was a defeat that saw them miss out on trying to win the National Championship. Rainy conditions could be in play in Week 7 of the 2023 season, but there will be no excuses from the Ohio State Buckeyes if they were to lose again.
Much will have been made of the struggles to establish the run and Head Coach Ryan Day has admitted that his team are coming up short. They could be bolstered by a returning Treveyon Henderson this week at Running Back after producing just 62 yards on the ground in the win over the Terrapins and Henderson could be a big difference maker for the Buckeyes.
The Offensive Line has room for improvement, but did help open up 104 yards for Treveyon Henderson in the win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while this Boilermakers Defensive Line have not convinced in stopping the run. In the last three games, Purdue have allowed an average of 175 rushing yards per game and it could be an opportunity for the Buckeyes to show their Head Coach that they are ready to get back to the levels expected.
There is no doubt that the Buckeyes Offensive Line has been stronger in pass protection and being able to establish the run should just make things more comfortable for Kyle McCord who has 1375 passing yards with 8 Touchdowns this season. With teams being able to run efficiently against Purdue, the Secondary have perhaps been better of late because teams do not need to throw, rather than a massive improvement in the level of Secondary play and McCord and the Receivers should be able to put up some solid numbers.
Throwing in the conditions could be the biggest challenge, but the same will apply to the Boilermakers when they have the ball. However, the key difference is that Purdue are not expected to be able to have nearly the same success running the ball compared with Ohio State and that will heap the pressure on Hudson Card at Quarter Back.
We have yet to really see Ohio State generate a consistent pass rush, but keeping Purdue in third and long spots could see them exert plenty of pressure on this Boilermakers Offensive Line. Hudson Card was Sacked multiple times and threw a couple of Interceptions in the loss to Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 6 and he will have to be careful throwing in this Buckeyes Secondary.
Even without a huge amount of pressure being generated up front, Ohio State have held teams to under 160 passing yards this season and that has to be respected. The Buckeyes also turn the ball over with ball-hawking players picking up Interceptions when teams are trying to make big plays and this could give the Buckeyes the extra possessions to win this game and cover the spread.
It is a big line without a doubt, but the Boilermakers have lost home games to Syracuse Orange and Wisconsin Badgers by 15 and 21 points respectively and Ohio State are stronger than both. Only a loss of focus and attention turning to Penn State may see the Buckeyes allow a backdoor cover, but they will know the importance of style points and 20 point wins over Indiana Hoosiers and Maryland can be at least matched in this one as revenge is earned for the 2018 upset.
Syracuse Orange @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: The ACC is a loaded Conference, but one that could provide at least one of the College Football PlayOff teams with the kind of quality we see at the top. The best of the lot may be the Florida State Seminoles (5-0) have put up victories over the LSU Tigers and Clemson Tigers already this season.
They are hosting in Week 7 of the regular season against the Syracuse Orange (4-2) who have seen their perfect start to the season erased over their last two games. The leap to Conference play was always going to be a challenge for Syracuse, especially opening up against Clemson and the North Carolina Tar Heels, but there has to be some disappointment that the team have been as uncompetitive as they have been after starting off the 2023 season with four straight wins.
Head Coach Dino Babers will know his team need to find a way to improve in all facets of their Football if they are going to be better when facing arguably the best team in the Conference. The Orange have only scored 21 points in their two losses to the Tigers and Tar Heels, while they have not been able to contain the Offensive units faced.
Now they have to deal with a Florida State Offense which is averaging over 42 points per game for the season and that despite those tough games against the Tigers of LSU and Clemson mentioned. Neither of those teams have really been able to improve the quality of the Florida State wins so there may still be some doubters about the Seminoles, although those naysayers will not be within the locker room.
One positive for the Orange is that the Defensive Line have continued to be very productive up front- they did allow over 200 rushing yards against the North Carolina Tar Heels, but it should be noted that their opponent needed to run the ball 48 times to reach that mark and Syracuse may feel they can at least limit the damage Florida State are able to do on the ground.
The Seminoles will still make some solid running plays behind this Offensive Line, especially with the threat that Jordan Travis poses with his arm. The Quarter Back is also capable of scrambling for First Downs, and Jordan Travis has really benefited by playing behind an Offensive Line that has protected him and given him time when has dropped back to throw.
It is the reason that Jordan Travis has thrown 8 Touchdown passes with a single Interception, and also produced almost 1200 passing yards this season. After watching the Clemson Tigers and North Carolina Tar Heels make some huge plays through the air, Jordan Travis is expected to pick up where Cade Klubnik and Drake Maye have left off.
There is plenty of respect being shown to Syracuse from the Florida State side of the field and that is important to make sure the Seminoles are not dragged into a tougher game than the layers expect.
The Seminoles have won three in a row against Syracuse, although the last time they hosted them resulted in just a 3 point win for Florida State.
However, the fans will be arriving feeling plenty of confidence that their team will maintain their unbeaten start to the season.
Syracuse will be looking to try and keep the strong Florida State Offensive unit cooling down by producing long drives, but recent games have just been a struggle for the Orange on this side of the ball. They have not been able to establish the run as well as they would have liked, while falling into an early deficit has forced them away from the rush and instead needing Garrett Shrader to keep up by throwing the ball.
The Quarter Back has struggled trying to bridge the gap to the better teams in the ACC and Garrett Shrader has had just 310 passing yards in the two games against Clemson and North Carolina combined. He has 2 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions in those games and Shrader is not going to get a lot of change out of this Florida State Secondary.
He may look to make some plays with his legs to keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains, but Florida State are well aware of that threat and will likely have someone spying on Garrett Shrader whenever he drops back to throw.
After back to back blowout losses, the layers have really strengthened Syracuse's position against the spread by making them 8 point bigger underdogs than their game at the North Carolina Tar Heels. It definitely makes it harder for Florida State to cover with the backdoor left much wider, but the Seminoles will be looking for a few style points and they have won both home games this season by at least 21 points.
The feeling is that the Seminoles will be looking to just remind the rest of the ACC about their qualities by beating a team that their expected rivals have dismissed pretty easily and the home team can make enough plays to cover.
Arizona Wildcats @ Washington State Cougars Pick: Losing to a favourite is not something that will be held onto by the underdog, but losing in the manner that the Arizona Wildcats (3-3) did in Week 6 might have an adverse affect. They battled the unbeaten USC Trojans so hard and eventually were undone in Triple Overtime, and it has dropped the Wildcats to 1-2 within the Pac-12 Conference.
In the previous week, the Arizona Wildcats had pushed another unbeaten Conference rival in the Washington Huskies and it should offer the players encouragement. However, it does mean they are potentially vulnerable when heading to the Washington State Cougars (4-1) in Week 7 as Arizona continue to roll through a busy portion of their schedule.
There will also be some disappointment to shift in the Cougars locker room after seeing the unbeaten start to the season ended by the UCLA Bruins last week. The 8 point loss might not seem like it was a blowout, but the Bruins absolutely dominated the game and only a couple of big Defensive player gave the Cougars a chance to put a competitive score together.
The Cougars have beaten the Arizona Wildcats three times in a row, but they have been a touch one-dimensional Offensively this season. Eventually that could have presented a problem, like it did in the loss to the Bruins, and Washington State will need Cameron Ward to bounce back from a sub-par effort.
Running the ball has been a challenge for the Cougars Offensive Line all season and they are not expected to find a lot of room up front against the Wildcats. Even with the kind of opponents faced in the last two weeks, the Wildcats Defensive Line is restricting teams to 3.9 yards per carry over their last three games and will be expected to at least force Cameron Ward to beat them through the air.
There are some holes in the Secondary that can be exploited and Cameron Ward has been protected pretty well by the Cougars Offensive Line when he has dropped back to throw. The Quarter Back will also have noted how difficult a time Caleb Williams had last week against Arizona when held to 219 passing yards the week after Michael Penix Jr had 363 yards against this Secondary and being behind the chains will give the Wildcats a chance to try and rattle Ward.
You still have to believe that the Cougars are going to have much stronger success throwing the ball than they did last week against the Bruins, but there is every chance that the Wildcats can perhaps go score for score with this opponent.
Unlike the Washington State Cougars, Arizona should have a much better balance Offensively in this match up and that certainly makes the Wildcats extremely dangerous as long as they something left in the tank. Those games with the Washington Huskies and USC Trojans will have sapped some energy, but a balanced Offensive unit might be able to keep the Cougars guessing in this road upset bid.
There is a question mark at Quarter Back for the Wildcats having used Noah Fifita in relief of an injured Jayden de Laura with the latter still considered the starter. However, Noah Fifita has shown he can be effective playing the position and either Quarter Back is likely to be playing in third and manageable situations with the Wildcats Offensive Line likely opening up holes to establish the run against a Cougars team giving up an average of 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games.
It will ease the pass rush and Arizona will know that their Quarter Back has a good chance of putting up some big numbers against this Washington State Secondary.
The three losses in a row to Washington State are hard to ignore, but Arizona do have an opportunity to make this game very competitive and they are being given plenty of points. The Wildcats have proven they can do that in their narrow defeats to two of the top three Pac-12 teams and the Cougars might just be a little too forgiving Defensively to cover more than a Touchdown in any winning effort.
USC Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: After escaping an upset bid in Week 6, the USC Trojans (6-0) will not be playing their Conference schedule in Week 7, but instead will be looking to put a notable win on the board.
A couple of weeks ago it may have felt like a very important win, but Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2) have lost some of their shine after losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes and then being blown out by the Louisville Cardinals. They have yet to have a Bye Week this season and suggestions are that the Fighting Irish are running on fumes, although Head Coach Marcus Freeman is not one for making excuses.
It was Coaching mistakes that really cost the Fighting Irish in their defeat to Ohio State, but the Week 7 loss to the Cardinals is much harder to ignore.
Sam Hartman has played well at Quarter Back this season and threw 2 more Touchdown passes last week, but the 3 Interceptions proved to be costly against Louisville. The Fighting Irish will be confident that Hartman can bounce back in this one considering how porous the USC Trojans Defensive unit have been, although the Quarter Back will be hoping for support from the Offensive Line in establishing the run.
In their last three games, during which time Notre Dame have lost twice, the Fighting Irish have only averaged 3.8 yards per carry and they are facing a Trojans Defensive Line which has been pretty stout against the run. They have held recent opponents to just 4.1 yards per carry and the Trojans may be keen on making the Fighting Irish rely on the pass and try to create the turnovers that Louisville did in their victory in Week 7.
The Secondary have been able to find some Interceptions, but USC have given up some huge plays through the air and that will have to be improved if they are going to win the Pac-12 and perhaps earn a spot in the College Football PlayOff. A loss to the Fighting Irish would be difficult for the PlayOff Committee to ignore considering Notre Dame have lost twice, but winning in South Bend in an evening game is a huge challenge.
Much could depend on Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans Offensive unit and whether they can cover up some of the issues the Defense has been having.
Most expect Caleb Williams to be the clear choice as the Number 1 Pick in the next NFL Draft and there has been nothing seen from the Quarter Back to really argue against that. This is clearly going to be the best Defensive unit that USC will have faced so far this season and so Williams and company still have something to prove.
They will be encouraged by the recent Fighting Irish games with a team that is perhaps running low in the gas tank beginning to struggle. The Defensive Line has found it very difficult to stop the run in their last three games and the Trojans will likely be looking to pound the ball right at Notre Dame in a bid to extend drives and also make sure Quarter Back Caleb Williams is not feeling under pressure to push the boat out.
It will be important to operate in third and manageable situations considering the high level that Notre Dame are still producing in the Secondary. Running the ball effectively should mean Caleb Williams has a chance to show off a little more than others have been able to do against the Fighting Irish, while the Quarter Back is expected to have some time in the pocket.
Notre Dame have dominated at home against the Trojans in recent years and will be looking for revenge for an 11 point road loss last season.
However, the Fighting Irish may struggle to keep their level going for the full sixty minutes in this game considering all of the Football they have been playing without a Bye Week.
This should give the Trojans a chance of the 'upset' as the narrow road underdog in what should be a highly charged, competitive game. Notre Dame will play hard trying to show they are anything but 'tired' or fatigued, but keeping up with the Trojans for the full game might just be a step too far for Sam Hartman and his Offensive team-mates and the stronger balanced USC Offense might lead to the win in Week 7.
MY PICKS: Colorado Buffaloes - 11.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 19 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 31 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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