There were upsets and some closer games than expected in Week 7 of the College Football season and a few more teams have slipped from the ranks of the unbeatens.
We will have at least another knocked off this week following the Ohio State and Penn State Big Ten clash, while the controversy around the Michigan Wolverines will certainly have the rest of the College Football PlayOff chasers taking a keen interest.
Week 7 was not a good one for the Picks, but Week 8 is hopefully an opportunity to bounce back.
UCF Knights @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: Two weeks have passed since the very important win in the Red River Rivalry game and the Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) should have come off the emotional high having sat through a Bye Week. Backing up that victory over the Texas Longhorns will be the sole aim for the Oklahoma Sooners and remaining unbeaten through to the Big 12 Championship Game would mean they are amongst the favourites to reach the College Football PlayOff, even as a potential non-Champion.
That will be far from the thought process of anyone involved with the team and the focus will be on winning each game and ticking them off of the list.
Quarter Back Dillon Gabriel will certainly not be overlooking this game on deck when his current team takes on the UCF Knights (3-3), the school with which Gabriel started his College Football career. It has been a tough move into the Big 12 for the Knights who have lost all three Conference games played this season and who will be hoping the Bye Week will have given them a chance to fully analyse what went wrong in the blowout defeat to the Kansas Jayhawks.
While the Sooners are being led by their former Quarter Back, it has been a problem position for the UCF Knights this season and contributed to the poor start made to life in the Big 12. An injury to John Rhys Plumlee has meant he has thrown just SEVEN Conference passes this season, although the two week break between games has given him the time to return to training.
He could have hoped to be facing a better opponent than the much improved Sooners Defensive unit, especially as Oklahoma have carried a pass rush that is likely to get the better of the UCF Offensive Line.
However, Plumlee will be helped if the Knights can establish the run and at least keep Dillon Gabriel and the Oklahoma Offensive unit on the sidelines. Teams have been able to find a little more room against the Oklahoma Defensive Line in recent games and the Knights may be able to at least give their Quarter Back a chance to make plays from third and manageable positions on the field, although John Rhys Plumlee will need some time finding rhythm with his Receivers to expose any holes in this Sooners Secondary.
A bigger challenge than scoring points may be stopping the Sooners doing what they want when they have the ball in their own hands.
Dillon Gabriel is likely going to have a strong game again, but he should be well supported by the ground game and this should mean the Sooners are able to move the ball up and down the field pretty efficiently.
The Offensive Line have protected their Quarter Back so Gabriel should have time to attack this UCF Secondary and Oklahoma look capable of winning this one by a wide margin, even after the Texas win and the emotions that come with it. You have to believe that Dillon Gabriel will be highly motivated even with the respect he has for his former school and the Oklahoma Sooners may be able to make enough Defensive plays to end up winning by around three Touchdowns.
Oklahoma have covered in seven games in a row and the Knights have failed to cover in each of their three road games this season.
Both of these trends are likely to be extended another week at the end of this Week 8 Big 12 game.
Washington State Cougars @ Oregon Ducks Pick: Some mistakes proved to be costly for the Oregon Ducks (5-1) in their narrow road defeat to the Washington Huskies, but all is not lost for the team. The Pac-12 is a tough Conference and the Ducks will still believe they have the qualities to force their way into the Championship Game and the College Football PlayOff is not beyond them after a single loss either.
Bouncing back before a big road game at the Utah Utes has to be the focus for Oregon and they are hosting the slumping Washington State Cougars (4-2). The 1-2 record in the Pac-12 Conference is down to the fact that the Cougars have lost consecutive games with the Week 7 defeat to the Arizona Wildcats particularly hurtful.
Losing is one thing, but the Washington State Cougars were 7.5 point favourites at home in a game they were eventually beaten by 37 points.
The 4-0 start to the season was behind a very strong Offensive showing, but the Cougars are really struggling on this side of the ball in their last two losses. Now they have to face an Oregon Defensive unit that has played at a solid level for the majority of this season and it is difficult to see Washington State have a lot more success than they have had in the losses to UCLA and Arizona.
One of the main issues for the Cougars is that they have been pretty one-dimensional when it comes to the Offensive game plan. We may see more of the same with Washington State struggling to run the ball and now facing an Oregon Defensive Line that has been really strong at clamping down on the run.
It means additional pressure on Cameron Ward at Quarter Back and he has not been able to handle that very well in the back to back defeats. The Oregon Secondary has produced some strong numbers this season and they are helped by a powerful pass rush that will feel they can rattle Ward who could be having to deal with third and long situations far too often.
After the loss in Week 7, Oregon Head Coach Dan Lanning has been criticised for some of the late play-calling that ultimately cost the Ducks the win. He should be much more simple with his approach in this one with Oregon likely to have plenty of success running the ball at this Cougars Defensive Line which has allowed teams to rip off some big gains.
Oregon's Offensive Line has been very strong at helping the establish the run and they have also protected Quarter Back Bo Nix, who should be able to make plenty of big plays through the air too. With the balance on the Offensive side of the ball, Oregon are expected to have another strong showing and they should be able to put up plenty of points against this Cougars team.
The Ducks have won four in a row against Washington State, but they are only 2-2 against the spread in those wins.
With an Offensive unit that is as capable as the Cougars at their best and Oregon off a disappointing loss, the backdoor cover for the underdog might be available. However, the Ducks are 4-0 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season and they can make some big plays Defensively to back up an Offensive unit likely to score plenty of points and that should see Oregon bounce back very effectively from the loss to the Huskies.
Texas Longhorns @ Houston Cougars Pick: Losing to the Oklahoma Sooners is a bitter blow for the Texas Longhorns (5-1), but running the table and winning the Big 12 Championship Game may still be good enough to carry the team into the College Football PlayOff. That has to still be the aim for the Longhorns who were seconds away from being unbeaten heading into Week 8 of the season and the team will have likely spent the Bye Week making sure they have put enough distance mentally between the rest of this season and the loss in the Red River Rivalry game.
This is going to be a tough test for the Longhorns as they face a road game at the Houston Cougars (3-3), even if the Cougars are 1-2 in Big 12 Conference play.
Make no mistake that all associated with the Houston Cougars will have circled this game on the schedule and so the very best effort has to be expected from the players, especially at home.
Donovan Smith made the big play from Quarter Back to help the Cougars beat the West Virginia Mountaineers to earn a first Conference win and he is likely going to be important in this one too. While the Cougars Offensive Line have been able to open up some big holes for the running game, they are facing a tough Texas Defensive Line and that mean all of the pressure is on the Quarter Back to try and expose the Longhorns Secondary.
He is well protected by the Offensive Line when stepping back to throw and Donovan Smith will be able to have success in this game. However, Smith will know this perhaps the best Defensive unit he has seen this season and he will have to be careful of throwing into tight spaces and seeing the Longhorns turn the ball over.
The reality is that Donovan Smith and the Houston Offensive unit should be able to move the ball, but the pressure in this game will be on the other side of the ball and whether they can make enough stops.
Houston may not have the same balance Offensively as the Texas Longhorns are likely going to be able to bring onto the field and a predictable Offense can be that much easier to stop.
With a strong Offensive Line, the Longhorns should be able to come out and establish the run and we should see Jonathon Brooks have another strong showing from the Running Back position. Texas will know the Cougars Defensive Line have had some issues when it comes to plugging the holes up front and so Brooks should keep the team in front of the chains, which can only be good news for Quinn Ewers at Quarter Back.
Some big numbers are being produced in the passing game and Ewers should have a comfortable day throwing the ball with the team operating out of third and manageable spots. Play-action could be employed to hit the Houston Secondary down the field and the Longhorns look more than capable of scoring each time they have the ball in their hands.
Motivation for the Cougars will make them dangerous, but the Longhorns are being targeted by all of the teams in the Big 12 as one of two schools ready to depart for the SEC. Despite that, Texas are still winning plenty of games by wide margins and the Longhorns have covered in each of their last four games following a loss.
It should be a high-scoring game, but one or two turnovers could see Texas move away from the Houston Cougars and cover what is a very big number.
Virginia Cavaliers @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The numbers of the unbeaten teams in College Football took another hit last week, although the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-0) are still amongst them. Keeping that going would mean a place in the ACC Championship Game, which is the least expected from the Tar Heels after the start made to this season, while winning the Conference as an unbeaten team would mean a place in the College Football PlayOff.
After beating the Miami Hurricanes, the North Carolina Tar Heels are big favourites to beat the Virginia Cavaliers (1-5) who are coming in off a Bye Week, but who have lost both Conference games played.
This is a big step up from the overall level of competition that the Cavaliers have faced this season and yet they have struggled already. Virginia were blown out by the Maryland Terrapins in a non-Conference game and their last game at North Carolina ended in a 20 point defeat two years ago with the two teams operating at very different levels in 2023.
Tony Muskett and the Cavaliers Offensive unit are going to have a tough time moving the ball with consistency against this Tar Heels team. The Quarter Back will need to be playing at his best to do so with the Virginia Offensive Line likely going to struggle to establish the run against this Tar Heels Defense.
The pressure will be all around Muskett if the Cavaliers are in third and long situations and the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the ball-hawking abilities of this North Carolina Secondary. In recent games turnovers have helped the Tar Heels remain unbeaten and they will certainly feel they can tempt Tony Muskett into a mistake or two if he is having to throw the ball to keep the chains moving.
It will feel much different when North Carolina have the ball thanks to Drake Maye and this strong Offensive unit that has been powering the unbeaten start to the season. A lot of attention will be paid to the Quarter Back, but this is a game in which the Tar Heels Offensive Line will be able to open up some big holes for the ground attack and that should mean Drake Maye is comfortable when he does step back to throw the ball.
A limited pass rush means Maye will likely be playing with plenty of time in the pocket anyway, but establishing the run will just make things that much easier for him. Turnovers could be an issue when it comes to covering a line as big as this one, although the time and down and distance is in favour of Drake Maye and that should see him keep the team moving up and down the field.
You cannot ignore the poor record that the Tar Heels have had as a double digit favourite since the start of last season, and they are playing after an important win. However, there is a real rivalry with Virginia and that should keep the team focused, while the home crowd are not likely to allow the Tar Heels to step off the gas as they look to put an impressive win on the board that could keep the PlayOff Committee firmly focused on North Carolina.
Both Tennessee and Maryland have crushed Virginia at home this season and North Carolina are arguably better than both- the Cavaliers have just not been impressive this season and it could lead to a big win for the Tar Heels.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 17 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 19.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 23 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 23.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 5.5 Points @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)
Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)
Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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