The second part of the College Football Bowl Games can be read here.
I will update with selections through the remainder of the post-season and I will then have a separate post for the College Football National Championship Game.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: Most would have expected this to be a season of learning for the Mississippi State Bulldogs as Mike Leach took over as Head Coach and even a place in the post-season has to be considered a success. However the reality is that the Bulldogs have been invited in despite their 3-7 record and in normal seasons that would not have been good enough.
Having the extra Bowl practices could really help the Bulldogs in 2021 when we are all hopeful that things will look a lot different for all of us. Mike Leach has decided he will go with a youth movement which will hopefully pay dividends for the Bulldogs in the years ahead as he shifts the team into the shape Leach will want, although it does mean there are going to be teething problems as we have seen this season.
The competition is not as strong as the Bulldogs may see on a week to week basis in the SEC, but the Tulsa Golden Hurricane need to be given a lot of respect. They were only narrowly beaten in the American Athletic Championship Game and Tulsa have overachieved throughout 2020 and will be highly motivated to take a big scalp on Thursday.
Much is going to come down to the Mississippi State Offensive side of the ball as they will be going up against a very strong Tulsa Defense. If the 'Air Raid' Offense is not able to have the success they are used to in this system, the Golden Hurricane should be very comfortable in their bid to win a Bowl Game for the first time in four years.
It has been a strong year for Tulsa's Defensive unit although they do have to respect the fact they are going up against a SEC Offense in this one. The Offense run by Mike Leach has always tended to struggle to run the ball and instead focusing on the pass, but Mississippi State will be looking for Will Rogers to continue his development at Quarter Back against a Tulsa Secondary which has made some very impressive plays in the passing game.
There sounds like there will be quite a bit of wind in Texas on Thursday too which may make it more difficult to throw the ball so Rogers will have to be aware of turnovers, especially as Interceptions have been an issue for the Bulldogs. The Mississippi State Offensive Line have also had one or two issues in pass protection which Tulsa will be looking to exploit and there is a feeling that the Golden Hurricane can stall some drives.
A bigger question about the Golden Hurricane is whether they have enough Offensively to compete with a SEC Defensive unit even if you have faith in their own Defense being strong enough to contain the Bulldogs. Unlike their counterparts, I do think the Tulsa Offensive Line will be able to establish the run and that will be important as they look to move the ball down the field.
Finding balance Offensively will give the Golden Hurricane confidence and they should be able to have some success throwing against this Mississippi State Secondary. A motivation to play in Texas will really appeal to many on the Tulsa roster and I do think they can win this as a narrow favourite.
The Golden Hurricane have a very strong record in Bowl Games and I do think this is a team who have worked so hard to be here that they will want to prove themselves. Tulsa are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the favourite and I like the Golden Hurricane to come through in this one.
San Jose State Spartans vs Ball State Cardinals Pick: Two teams who have been built in a similar way have achieved big successes already in 2020 and will be looking to round things off with a big time Bowl win. While some teams in College Football are unconcerned about the post-season if they don't make the College Football PlayOffs, teams like the Ball State Cardinals and San Jose State Spartans are all about reaching the post-season and having the players rewarded with a Bowl appearance.
Things have bene much better than that for both the Cardinals and Spartans in 2020 as both are heading into this Bowl Game off upset wins in their Conference Championship Games. Both were big underdogs against the Buffalo Bulls and Boise State Broncos respectively, but winning the Championship and looking to complete fantastic seasons will bring plenty of motivation to the table.
San Jose State are looking for an unbeaten season, while the Ball State Cardinals are 6-1 in 2020 and I do think there will be a confidence that can't be underestimated.
Both teams have been very strong Offensively which is going to produce a very good game, although the difference on the day looks to be the Spartans Defensive Line.
The Cardinals have been struggling to run the ball in their most recent games and I do think the San Jose State Defensive Line will be able to at least shut down that aspect of the Ball State Offense. Doing so will force the Cardinals to rely on the pass, but the Offensive Line have also had issues when it comes to giving the Quarter Back enough time to make the throws down the field and I do think San Jose State can at least rattle Drew Plitt when he is forced to drop back and pass the ball.
Even then I do think Plitt will have some successes and it will at least give Ball State the chance to be competitive.
They will have to move the ball if they are going to stay in this one because they are facing a balanced Spartans Offensive unit which should be able to have their way with the Ball State Defense. Unlike the Cardinals, San Jose State are expected to be able to establish the run and rip off some big gains against the Ball State Defensive Line and that will open things up for Nick Starkel who has found a home in San Jose.
Nick Starkel has produced some massive numbers throughout 2020 in leading the Spartans to a 7-0 record and he should be given plenty of time to expose the Ball State Secondary. With the ball being run, San Jose State should remain in front of the sticks and that will open up the playbook for Starkel who will be able to hit some big plays.
He should be aware of the Ball State tendency to bend Defensively, but also create Interceptions, but I think the Quarter Back has played well enough to believe he can help San Jose State score enough points to win this game.
The favourites should be much more comfortable in the weather compared with Ball State, especially at this time of the year, and that gives the unbeaten team another edge.
Ball State have been a very good underdog to back under Head Coach Mike Neu and I have to respect that, but San Jose State are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one games against a team with a winning record. With a more balanced Offense and with the weather conditions more suited to the Spartans, I think San Jose State will pull away for a solid looking win in this Bowl Game.
Army Black Knights vs West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: There was some real surprise when the Bowl selections were announced that a 9-2 Army Black Knights had not been offered a chance to play in the post-season. Covid-19 has actually opened the door for the Black Knights when the Tennessee Volunteers decided they needed to withdraw having had an outbreak in the team, and I do think Army are going to be highly motivated for this one to prove a point.
They won't have an easy game in front of them against the West Virginia Mountaineers who need a win to finish with a winning record. The Mountaineers should have had enough preparation time to get ready to face the triple option Offense that the Black Knights like to run, although it will be a challenge for any team facing this team.
The West Virginia Mountaineers Defensive Line has struggled to clamp down on the run down the stretch and I do think the Black Knights will be comfortable in the conditions which is going to mean a lot of running the ball. Like many teams who have run this kind of Offense, the Black Knights have not really had a lot of success throwing the ball with the main ambition to wear down teams on the ground, but I do think they will have some joy in this one.
It is a tough task for the Mountaineers whose Defensive unit has actually been better defending the pass than they have in controlling the run. With that in mind I do think Army will be able to move the chains, although they will also have to respect the fact that West Virginia have played well Defensively for large parts of the 2020 season.
Matching up poorly on the Defensive side of the ball also factors into the West Virginia Offensive play and I think that is why this feels like a very big spread for the favourite to cover. The Mountaineers have gotten plenty from Quarter Back Jarret Doege, but he will be facing a very strong Army Secondary and it looks like it is going to be a game played in windy and wet conditions which will make it very hard to throw the ball with any kind of consistency.
Instead the focus for the Offensive Line is going to be in establishing the run and West Virginia may have a touch more success in this game than they have for much of the season. In recent games the Mountaineers have not really opened the kind of holes they would have liked up front, but the Army Defensive Line has not played as well as the Secondary and the Mountaineers should be able to score some points too.
However, they are not a team who will light up the scoreboard and I think that makes this likely to be a low-scoring game. That makes the points being given to the underdog look all the more appealing.
The Mountaineers are 1-9 against the spread in their last ten games as a favourite in a game being played on neutral field. They have also failed to cover in their last seven games as the favourite in a Bowl Game.
Army do not have the best recent record as the underdog in games, but I think they can run the ball well enough to control the clock and keep this one close.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Some will question whether the Notre Dame Fighting Irish deserve their place in the College Football PlayOffs after being blown away by the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish barely held onto the Number 4 Seed, but they are a considerable underdog in this Semi Final on New Year's Day.
That isn't a big surprise if anyone had seen the performance in the Championship Game agains the Tigers that seemed to suggest Notre Dame are some way away from being one of the top teams in the nation despite the record. However I don't think it is ever wise to base an opinion on a team on one game and the Fighting Irish were unbeaten in the regular season which included a win over the Tigers, albeit it was a Clemson team missing Trevor Lawrence.
Now the challenge looks a very big one in front of Notre Dame as they get set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide who won the SEC Championship with an unbeaten record, although the Championship Game was closer than some anticipated. Even then it has been a rare occasion in 2020 when the Crimson Tide have been pushed and a balanced Offensive unit is going to be very difficult to slow down.
There is a balance on this side of the ball which makes it difficult to know how Clemson can stop them and especially if the Fighting Irish have not improved on the line on scrimmage. In their most recent games the Notre Dame Defensive Line have given up some huge plays on the ground and I have little reason to believe things will change when facing this Alabama Offensive Line.
Najee Harris might be the latest Alabama Running Back ready to make an impact at the next level and I expect him to put the Crimson Tide in front of the sticks which will make it very difficult for the Notre Dame Defensive unit to shut things down. Mac Jones has been brilliant at Quarter Back and is in the Heisman Trophy contention, and life becomes very comfortable for him if he is able to hand the ball off and see Harris rip off some big gains.
I expect Mac Jones to have considerable success throwing against the Fighting Irish Secondary while he has also been well protected so should have a strong outing.
Over the course of the season the Fighting Irish have impressed on this side of the ball, but the feeling is that they are going to have do more in what is likely going to be a shoot out at best. While the Fighting Irish can't expect to shut down the Alabama Crimson Tide, they will be looking for Ian Book to have a bounce back outing after what was a sub-par effort from the entire Offense in their defeat to the Clemson Tigers.
Unlike his counterpart, Ian Book is not likely to receive the same kind of support from the run as Alabama's Defensive Line have really clamped down on opponents up front. That will lead to plenty of pressure on the Quarter Back if the Notre Dame Fighting Irish fall behind in this one and I am not sure there is enough talent to challenge the Crimson Tide.
We have seen Florida and Mississippi have success against the Alabama Secondary, but those games have been few and far between and Ian Book has not really led the same Offensive firepower as those two teams. I do think he can make some throws, but Alabama's Secondary will likely be helped by the significant pass rush generated up front which should be able to breakthrough the Notre Dame Offensive Line whenever Ian Book steps back to throw.
If the Fighting Irish are not able to run the ball as they would like, Ian Book could be under intense pressure through much of the game and that should lead to a big Alabama win as turnovers and stalled drives take over.
Notre Dame have some solid numbers, but they are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games as an underdog in a Bowl Game. The Crimson Tide are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight as the favourite and I think Alabama will find a way to cover a big number with their Offensive power producing the differential on the day.
Clemson Tigers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: These teams met in the College Football PlayOffs last year and it ended up with a narrow win for the Clemson Tigers who needed a late Interception to confirm the win over the Ohio State Buckeyes. In that game the Tigers were a narrow favourite, but the spread is bigger this time and it may have something to do with the impressive dismantling of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the ACC Championship Game.
That victory showed the power of the Tigers and the layers may also be concerned with the lack of games that the Ohio State Buckeyes have played in 2020. While they remained unbeaten, Dabo Swinney was the first to mention the fact that the Buckeyes have not experienced the same kind of hardships as other teams in College Football have faced and his Ranking of the Buckeyes outside of the top ten will be motivation for the underdog.
However I think the point is a valid one because the Buckeyes have not impressed as much as some of the other teams that were chasing the PlayOff places. I would have had the Texas A&M Aggies Ranked above the Ohio State Buckeyes on their overall season performances and the fact the sole loss came to the Alabama Crimson Tide, but the Buckeyes are here and they will feel they have something to prove.
Justin Fields has not been at his best and his battle against Trevor Lawrence is not really going to impact the Number 1 Overall Pick in the NFL Draft as it may have done before the season began. Now it feels like Lawrence is the clear top choice, but that should serve as inspiration to Fields to show he belongs at the next level and is as good as any other Quarter Back in College Football.
The Quarter Back has struggled to avoid mistakes in the passing game in recent games and I do think Justin Fields is going to have his problems here. For the main part he has been able to lean on the running game to put himself in front of the sticks, but Fields is not likely to have that help here, at least not consistently. The Clemson Defensive Line has prided itself on being able to stop the run and they showed how much they have learned in their defeat of the Fighting Irish having been destroyed by the ground game when those teams met earlier in the season.
If the Tigers Defensive Line can control the line of scrimmage they will feel very confident in being able to slow down the entire Buckeyes Offense, although Ohio State's Offensive Line have bullied most teams they have faced. That will be so important for Justin Fields who has struggled to connect in the passing game as he would have liked, while the Offensive Line has been struggling in pass protection and is likely to be under intense pressure from the Clemson pass rush every time the Buckeyes get behind the chains.
Running the ball is likely going to be a tough task for the Clemson Tigers too, although they will benefit from the Quarter Back who is respected enough to maybe have teams pull players from the line of scrimmage to protect the Secondary. I do think Ohio State will be confident in their Defensive Line and will feel they can at least limit the damage done by Travis Etienne, but stopping Trevor Lawrence looks like it may be beyond this Secondary.
All season it has been seen that it is possible to throw the ball against the Buckeyes and in recent games there hasn't been much of a change in that regard. The fact that a generational talent like Trevor Lawrence will be doing that here will surely see Clemson pile up some big yards through the air and especially as the Quarter Back has been well protected.
He will have to be aware of the Interceptions that the Buckeyes can generate, but I like the Clemson Tigers to prove a point here and produce a big win. You know the Head Coach will be wanting to do that and Clemson have covered in the three previous meetings between these schools since 2014.
Dabo Swinney really does coach the Tigers up when it comes to Bowl Game results and I think that is key here. The Buckeyes are a very good underdog, but they were beaten in that spot by Clemson last season and I think they will cover here.
MY PICKS: Tulsa Golden Hurricane + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
San Jose State Spartans - 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Army Black Knights + 8.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 20 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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