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Saturday, 5 December 2020

Boxing Picks 2020- Errol Spence Jr vs Danny Garcia (December 5th)

It has been a difficult year for every sport, but I have to credit for those involved in Boxing for giving us a solid end to 2020 with the hope that 2021 will be vastly different.

Things are beginning to change and that will be evident even with the small crowd that have been lucky enough to snap up tickets for Anthony Joshua's World Title defence against Kubrat Pulev in London next week.

We have already seen some crowds return in the United States despite the Covid-19 pandemic seemingly running amok over there and on Saturday the return of Errol Spence Jr will be in front of a crowd at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It may not be anything like the numbers that were allowed for Spence Jr's win over Mikey Garcia inside the same Stadium, but it the start of something like a return to normal.

Next year will hopefully see the vaccine for this pandemic reaching the masses which should mean a return to greater numbers inside Stadiums and I am also hopeful that 2020 has been an eye-opener for many Boxers and Promoters. Time in the sport is limited and not guaranteed so there is no point marinating legacy fights until they are well done, but instead the big names should push to share a ring with each other and ultimately prove they are the best at what they do with their fists rather than fingers on social media.

It should gather momentum for the return of the fans in big numbers with some top fights that could be made, although I will likely delve into that either later this month or early in 2021.


Anthony Joshua and Canelo Alvarez are back later this month, but Saturday 5th December offers fans a couple of big main events and some decent Boxing to enjoy on the undercard too.

It begins in London and then shifts to Texas and I am looking forward to the whole evening- the best news for United Kingdom fans is that neither event is behind a PPV model this week too.


Michael Ramabeletsa vs Chris Bourke
A quick look at the records may suggest that this chief support bout on the London card is going to be a one sided victory for the unbeaten Chris Bourke.

After all Michael Ramabeletsa is 18-17 as a professional and at 39 years old has to be past his best.

However that is not factoring in how well Ramabeletsa has been performing in recent fights and how he has proven to be more than a simple gatekeeper for those prospects looking to move up the World Rankings. In fact he has won three fights in a row and all of those have come against unbeaten fighters so no one in Chris Bourke's camp can be overlooking the South African born opponent who is now residing in Preston.

Michael Ramabeletsa may only have won eight of his last eighteen fights inside the distance, but two of those stoppages have come in his last three fights. Joe Eko managed to get to the cards before he was beaten, but Ramabeletsa put him down in two of the ten Rounds they fought each other and I do think he is a very dangerous customer.

We will learn a lot about Chris Bourke who went beyond the Sixth Round for the first time in his last fight back in July when narrowly outpointing previously unbeaten Ramez Mahmood. However there is no doubting this is a big step up for Bourke who will look to make things awkward with his southpaw stance although I do think he is going to find it hard to fend off a naturally bigger opponent.

Chris Bourke has shown some pop in his previous bouts, but Michael Ramabeletsa is rough and ready and I do think he can things very awkward.

The layers feel Bourke should have too much and they may be right if he is as good as some think, but Michael Ramabeletsa is going to show us all what his opponent is about. The South African is tough and on a roll and I do think he is perhaps being underestimated to earn the upset win.

He might be on the wrong end of some controversy if it is close, but a small interest in the underdog at a big looking price looks justified as he looks to take a fourth '0' in a row.


Anthony Yarde vs Lyndon Arthur
This feels similar to Daniel Dubois versus Joe Joyce in the manner that most felt they had a pretty good idea about where both Boxers were.

Most anticipated the power to be with Dubois and perhaps underestimated the amateur pedigree of Joyce which turned out to be decisive on the night. It also helped that Joyce showed a tremendous chin taking some of the big power punches Dubois has become known for and I do feel that Lyndon Arthur is going to have to do the same to upset Anthony Yarde.

On paper there is no doubt that Yarde has operated at a much higher level than Arthur, but the Mancunian has a better amateur pedigree and will be looking to keep 'The Beast' at bay with a jab and out-Boxing him.

King Arthur has some power as evidenced by twelve stoppages in his perfect 17-0 record, but this is a big step up for Lyndon Arthur whose best win may be Dec Spelman.

That is the same opponent Anthony Yarde demolished and he has operated at the World level when barely coming up short against Sergey Kovalev. The 'Lions in the Camp' feel that is going to be the difference on the day and I do think this is going to be a fight that tells a lot about where Arthur can go in his career.

There will be times when I do think Lyndon Arther will just make Anthony Yarde's Boxing skills look a little ponderous, but the big questions will only be answered when Yarde finds him with some power shots. There is no doubting how hard Anthony Yarde hits and there aren't many who have been able to get through the early storm which means Lyndon Arthur has to answer questions quicker than he may want to.

Only a World Class operator like Sergey Kovalev has managed to get past Seven Rounds with Anthony Yarde and even the Russian was rocked to his very core in the Eighth Round and only barely escaped before recovering and finding the stoppage. That is going to be the test for Lyndon Arthur and I am not sure he is going to be able to prevent Anthony Yarde from firing away when he does get on top in this fight.

The early Rounds may be cagey, but I would not be that surprised if Anthony Yarde asks the big questions of Lyndon Arthur in the middle of this one and eventually finds enough firepower to put this opponent away. I like Arthur and think there is a quality fighter there, but I do think Anthony Yarde's experience will tell and backing him to find the stoppage in the mid-Rounds looks a decent enough price.


Sebastian Fundora vs Habib Ahmed
This should have been a much more important fight for Sebastian Fundora, a Boxer who stands at 6 feet 5 inches, but manages to operate at the Light-Middleweight level. At 22 years old there is likely going to be a move up one or two Divisions for Sebastian Fundora in the years ahead, but for now he is looking to show he is the best 154 pounder in the world, although I am not sure many will want to take him on unless they have to for World Titles.

The key for Fundora is to force his way into the position of a mandatory spot, but this is no longer a final eliminator after initial opponent Jorge Cota was forced to withdraw from this fight.

In steps Habib Ahmed who has a solid 27-1 record on paper, but who has never fought below 160 pounds and who has fought as high as Super Middleweight. The sole loss on Ahmed's resume comes at Super Middle against Gilberto Ramirez when he was stopped in the Sixth Round, but he is going to be at a height and reach disadvantage in this one too and I do wonder how he is feeling having sapped himself down to a new low in fighting weight.

Habib Ahmed was fighting at 166 pounds just four months ago and you do wonder if there is going to be much to him in this one. He is going up against an opponent who has been comfortable at the weight and who will likely target the body and use his range to really let go his hands and I do think Sebastian Fundora will be looking to make a statement on a big card.

Two of his previous opponents have managed to get out of the Sixth Round, but I do think Sebastian Fundora is facing someone that won't be hard to find and who may not have a lot of will to stay up to heavy shots if he is feeling weak at the weight. Losing as much as Habib Ahmed likely has in a short period of time has to have affected how much punch resistance he may have and that should encourage Fundora to find his range early and then begin to tee off on the Ghanaian.

You do have to credit Ahmed for the career he has put together so far, but Sebastian Fundora should be the more comfortable in this bout and it may lead to a relatively early night for The Towering Inferno.


Errol Spence Jr vs Danny Garcia
The picture above comes from a simpler time as Errol Spence Jr had just earned the Split Decision win over Shawn Porter and retained his IBF World Title and added the WBC belt to his collection too.

Even then most wanted to see Spence Jr find a way to go in with Terence Crawford, but the Texan was set to go against Danny Garcia early in 2020 before finding a way to the Unification super-fight with Crawford later in the year.

Before even the Covid-19 pandemic raised havoc, Errol Spence Jr was involved in one of the more horrifying car crashes that have been caught on CCTV and there was every chance his career was over... At one point some feared Spence Jr would even survive the accident.

In the last fifteen months Errol Spence Jr has been working his way back and it is saying a lot about the character of the man that he hasn't taken an easy path back to the top of World Boxing. Instead of facing an overmatched opponent, Errol Spence Jr has decided he will go in with the dangerous Danny Garcia and there is only one question most will have.

What has Errol Spence Jr lost and how much has he retained after the near fatal accident?

My feeling is that if this fight took place soon after the September win over Shawn Porter that Errol Spence Jr would have been a big favourite against Danny Garcia who has come up short against Porter and Keith Thurman. Danny Garcia has to be respected because he is a solid Boxer, has a good chin and he has thrived as an underdog before in his career.

There is no doubting that Garcia is going to test Errol Spence Jr, but I do think that is mainly because we are not sure that Spence Jr is going to be at the same level he was pre-accident.

If Spence Jr is anywhere near the level he once was I do think he is going to be able to box at range and steer clear of the 'no look' left hook that Garcia is going to search for. The intrigue comes from whether he has lost a step and not able to get out of the way as he once could or whether his punch resistance is gone, but I really like Errol Spence Jr and I think he finds his way to a Decision win.

I do think he can out-Box Garcia for large parts of this one and I will look for Errol Spence Jr to not take too many unnecessary risks as he shows he is back to take his place at the top of the 147 pile.

MY PICKS: Michael Ramabeletsa @ 4.20 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Anthony Yarde to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sebastian Fundora to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Errol Spence Jr to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

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