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Saturday 5 December 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (December 5-7)

There is still one more round of European Group Stage matches to be played, but the English Premier League clubs involved in either the Champions League or Europa League couldn't have asked for a better week.

Well I mean all but Manchester United sadly.

While Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool all earned the results they need to not only Qualify, but actually win their Champions League Groups, Manchester United had to suffer a really disappointing 1-3 home defeat to Paris Saint-Germain.

The performance wasn't terrible, but the result was and Manchester United will be under pressure on Tuesday when they visit Leipzig looking to earn at least a draw to progress to the Last 16 of the Champions League. A defeat would mean Manchester United are sent back into the Europa League and the pressure will build on the manager, but the situation is also a difficult one to deal with as Manchester United have some big Premier League games to come.

Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Leicester City have also progressed to the Knock Out Rounds of the Europa League and the managers of those six clubs will get a chance to utilise the squad in what is going to be a busy month of football for all of the English clubs.

Over the coming weeks Fantasy players will have to watch out for the increasingly strange deadline times for each GameWeek coming up, but more on that later.

Before I get to that you can read my thoughts on the Premier League games to come this weekend, although there are nine games scheduled and not the usual ten after the Aston Villa-Newcastle United game was postponed due to a Covid-19 outbreak in the latter's squad.


Burnley v Everton Pick: If anyone can tell me what Everton team are going to turn up from week to week I would have a better idea as to how this game is going to go.

Will it be the side who scored early and often against Fulham in a recent 2-3 win at Craven Cottage? Or will it be the Everton side that were largely outplayed and perhaps fortunate to lose 0-1 at home to Leeds United last weekend?

Carlo Ancelotti may not be entirely sure what to expect, while the injury to Lucas Digne is a blow to the Everton balance. I still think they will be dangerous going forward, but Everton have not been very good at the back and I do think Burnley may be under-rated here at the moment.

It has not been the start to the season that Sean Dyche would have wanted, but Burnley have perhaps deserved more than they have gotten, especially at Turf Moor.

The first goal feels so pivotal in this fixture with both Burnley and Everton perhaps lacking some confidence, but don't ask me who gets that!


Manchester City v Fulham Pick: Ever since Chelsea won the Premier League in the 2016/17 season, this has been a Division which has been dominated by two clubs.

Manchester City ran away with the title in 2018 and Liverpool managed to do the same last season, while both clubs won at least 30 games in the season between those Championship successes.

The 2020/21 Premier League is shaping up to be much more competitive and we have seen Manchester City sitting down in 11th place in the League table after nine games have been played. That is one fewer than the majority of the Division and Manchester City have picked up 15 points from a possible 27, a far cry from their performances in 2018 and 2019, but Pep Guardiola has to still believe his team are favourites to win the title along with Liverpool.

A convincing win over Burnley last week might be the spark Manchester City have been waiting for as they have regularly struggled to show a clinical side to their game despite chances being created. Sergio Aguero is still absent, but Manchester City look healthier and they should be able to take the game to Fulham who have been struggling at the back despite improved performances and results.

Manchester City have been pretty effective defensively and I do think their upcoming fixture list gives them a chance to close the gap on the leaders who look to be dealing with tougher games. At the moment all the home team can do is concentrate on themselves and Manchester City have shown they are playing well enough to punish Fulham if Scott Parker's team are not able to be a little more organised.

Fulham have been creating chances and they could be dangerous on the counter attack if Manchester City are overexposed, but I do think it will be tough to back up the win at Leicester City.

The West London club have not really been able to compete with the better teams they have faced at this level and Manchester City have beaten them 6 times in a row at home.

Like last weekend, an early goal would really set Manchester City on their way in this one and I think they are likely to produce a comfortable win on the day.


West Ham United v Manchester United Pick: You can question the tactics, the in-game management and whether the resume of the manager is good enough for a club of the stature of Manchester United, but it would be a little harsh on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to completely ignore the performance against Paris Saint-Germain this past week.

The chances created early in the second half with the game balanced at 1-1 should have been taken by Manchester United and effectively they were punished by the French Champions.

The pressure is back on the manager who can't really afford another sub-par Premier League performance and then potentially exiting the Champions League in the Group Stage next week.

However it can't be ignored that Manchester United have saved some of their best performances away from Old Trafford and the next two fixtures are both going to be played on their travels. Manchester United have won 11 of their last 12 away games in all competitions and they showed their battling qualities in beating Southampton last weekend from 2-0 down.

That result means Manchester United have won 8 away Premier League games in a row going back to last season, although the one concern is that they have conceded first in each of the 4 played this season. There are only so many times you can expect a team to respond to those setbacks, but Manchester United have shown they don't know when they are beaten and that is a good character to have.

Playing at the London Stadium has not been easy for Manchester United and West Ham United have won their last 2 against them here. David Moyes would love to remind the Manchester United fans of his quality despite a poor time in charge at Old Trafford and his West Ham United team have won 3 in a row in the Premier League.

West Ham United have won their last 2 games at the London Stadium, although they have needed Fulham and Aston Villa to miss late penalties. A VAR intervention prevented an equaliser for Aston Villa last Monday too and the underlying stats suggest West Ham United are not defending as well as they would like.

Their visitors are certainly capable of exposing those defensive areas and I do think Manchester United have shown they can bounce back when the pressure is on them to earn a result. When you think factors are going against Manchester United it is the time they have found a big result under their current manager and I think that will be the case on Saturday afternoon.

The Hammers will be boosted by the return of 2000 fans, but I do think they have been riding their luck a touch on their 3 game winning run.

Manchester United have to make sure they don't concede first which has become the norm in the Premier League for them, especially away from home, but I do think they will create chances here. The results might not be very consistent, but recent performances have seen Manchester United create chances and I think they will 'surprise' by winning here.


Chelsea v Leeds United Pick: The final game on Saturday in the Premier League sees two clubs with serious history against one another facing off for the first time at Stamford Bridge in sixteen years.

Both Chelsea and Leeds United will be very happy with the way they have been playing in the 2020/21 season and I think this is going to be an attacking game.

Frank Lampard and Marcelo Bielsa have set their teams up to get on the front foot and I do think both Chelsea and Leeds United will be able to create chances.

Chelsea have been in very good form and they have a fully fit squad to choose from ahead of this fixture. Key players have been well rested during the week and I do think that will help Chelsea who won't expect Leeds United to sit back and defend in numbers.

I do think Leeds United will play the same way they have all season- they will look to break in numbers and that has seen Leeds United put teams under pressure at home and away. The best results have come on their travels, but Leeds United's style has also led to conceding four goals to Liverpool and Crystal Palace and this Chelsea team are certainly playing well enough to get on top of them here.

As well as Leeds United have played going forward, it has left them vulnerable defensively and teams have been able to create chances against. Liverpool and Palace scored four at home, but Leicester City managed to hit that many in a recent fixture at Elland Road and this is a Chelsea team with depth in the squad and with a serious amount of goals being scored of late.

It should be an enjoyable game of football for the neutrals, but I think Chelsea will be too good on the day and can win a high-scoring fixture. They have looked more likely of the two to keep a clean sheet and I think they can limit Leeds United while exposing some of the soft underbelly Marcelo Bielsa's team have had.


West Brom v Crystal Palace Pick: Two teams that have struggled to show any consistency in the final third meet in the early Sunday kick off in the Premier League and it is another one of those fixtures where you could make the case for all three results.

Both Slaven Bilic and Roy Hodgson are under some pressure to earn a result, but Crystal Palace will at least be boosted by a returning Wilfred Zaha this week. His presence gives the entire squad a lift and in recent years this is the kind of game Crystal Palace would win and make sure they steer clear of relegation concerns.

At the same time you have to feel West Brom will be given a shot in the arm thanks to their 1-0 win over Sheffield United last weekend. They should be encouraged by the result, but this is a team who needed some wastefulness from their visitors to secure the points and the fixture feels very similar to the Burnley-Everton one in the sense that the first goal is going to be massively important.

I do lean towards Crystal Palace getting a result, but they have underachieved in recent games and I simply can't trust them to do that. At the same time West Brom don't feel like a team who are going to be able to earn consistent results at the Premier League level and there look to be better options out there this weekend.


Sheffield United v Leicester City Pick: This is an important game at the top and bottom of the Premier League as two clubs in poor form look to find some momentum as we enter a very busy December.

Sheffield United have been in miserable form for months now and 12 losses in 13 Premier League games during which time a single point has been earned is simply not good enough. Chris Wilder has to be tearing his hair out about some of the chances his team are creating and missing, but the lack of goals has been a long-term problem for the side and very little suggests it is going to change.

They should be able to have some success getting forward against this Leicester City team who have been so inconsistent, but still sit in 4th place in the Premier League. That says more about the quality of the Division than it does about Leicester City who have been beaten at home by West Ham United, Aston Villa and Fulham this season.

The Foxes were beaten in the Ukraine on Thursday, but they have produced their most effective results away from home over the last two months. Defensively there are questions to be answered, but Leicester City do create chances and they have shown better composure in the final third compared with their hosts this weekend.

That composure could be the difference and Leicester City did score twice in both Premier League games against Sheffield United last season and picked up maximum points against them. Travelling to the Ukraine on Thursday is not ideal, but key players have been rested completely and I think Leicester City can snap their poor form out of the November international break.

It will be close and Sheffield United will surely see their luck turn soon, but it may have to wait a few more days. Leicester City can't always be trusted, but they should have the goals to win this fixture.


Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick: Over the last few generations there have not been many times that Tottenham Hotspur would have gone into the North London derby in a higher position than Arsenal. In recent years it has become a more consistent sight though and Tottenham Hotspur are deservedly favourites to win.

2000 Tottenham Hotspur fans will be back in the Stadium for the first time since March and there is no doubting the boost it will give to the players. Even those who may not have appreciated the fans as much before the pandemic will know how important they are to the spectacle and I do think it will give this North London derby a good atmosphere.

Both teams made a huge number of changes to their Thursday night Europa League starting line ups and both have progressed to the Last 32.

It is Tottenham Hotspur who have shown a lot more consistency of late and 4 straight wins at home in all competitions will have given them further belief. Spurs are creating chances and scoring goals and I do think that is going to be very difficult for Arsenal to overcome.

Mikel Arteta's Arsenal have shown defensive improvements, but they are struggling to find the balance between attack and defence. Even the improvements have not been enough to produce a lot of games where they have deserved their clean sheets and a similar performance to the one at Elland Road will be costly for them here.

I do think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to find spaces to exploit in this game and I simply don't believe Arsenal have shown enough in the final third to believe they can keep up with their rivals. Tottenham Hotspur have scored at least twice in 6 home games in a row in all competitions and if they hit that mark I would expect it will be enough for the three points on Sunday.

The underlying stats are suggesting that Arsenal are simply not doing enough in the final third at the moment and I will look for Tottenham Hotspur to raise more questions about the suitability of Mikel Arteta to oversee an Arsenal rejuvenation project.


Liverpool v Wolves Pick: The final Premier League game on Sunday evening sees two teams missing some influential players facing one another as top seven clubs going into the weekend fixtures.

Both Liverpool and Wolves are just trying to navigate their way through a difficult period and both will be pretty pleased with their results in recent weeks.

Raul Jimenez could be a huge loss for Wolves having led the line so effectively for them over the last couple of years. The sickening injury he suffered would have hurt his team-mates, but Wolves showed they are willing to huddle together to earn results in their 1-2 win at Arsenal last weekend.

This is a tougher test, but Liverpool could be without four of their first choice back five and Wolves have to feel they won't have many better chances to end their run of League losses to this opponent. They were narrowly beaten in both League games last season and Wolves have to believe they will create chances here.

Liverpool have managed to just hold themselves together and earn some big results even through their injury crisis. There is no doubting their attacking threat, but I do wonder if they can keep picking up results with so many defensive problems to deal with.

Diogo Jota would love to get one over his former team and I do think Liverpool will be dangerous, but they are conceding a lot of chances of late. Ajax did enough to deserve more than a 1-0 defeat here during the week and prior to that Atalanta did win 0-2 at Anfield.

The home side have not lost in 64 Premier League games at Anfield though and they have 2000 fans to boost the team in this one. That should be a real help to Liverpool, but I do think Wolves are getting a big enough start on the Asian Handicap in what should be a close game.

Liverpool have won all 5 games at home in the Premier League, but only 2 of those wins have come by comfortable margins. At the same time Wolves are still well organised and they have pace and quality in the final third which should mean they can create chances here.

I would be surprised if the away team are blown away here and Wolves may even have enough to earn a point at the least.


Brighton v Southampton Pick: A south coast derby deserves to be witnessed by the fans in the stands and there will be 2000 back at the Amex Stadium for Monday Night Football as Brighton take on Southampton.

On paper this has all the makings of a decent game of football between two teams who are managed by managers that have an attacking philosophy.

We have seen plenty of evidence of that this season with both Brighton and Southampton creating chances, although the latter have been the more clinical and consistent of the two. Graham Potter and Ralph Hasenhuttl will actually be pleased with the balance they have largely shown too as they have not compromised themselves defensively while taking the opportunities to get forward.

Southampton have perhaps been a little looser at the back and have conceded at least three goals to Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester United this season. However you can't ignore the fact that 14 of the 16 Premier League goals conceded this season have come in those four matches and they have been pretty good outside of that.

On the other side Brighton did concede 10 goals in their first four Premier League games, but have only given up a further 4 goals in their next six. Only one team have scored more than a single goal against Brighton in the last 6 Premier League games played and that came at Premier League leaders Tottenham Hotspur, while the last 3 at the Amex Stadium have all ended with two or fewer goals shared out.

An early goal could really change the entire complexion of the fixture, but I do think Brighton and Southampton will play out a competitive game and one that may not feature a lot of goals. Both teams can create chances, but both are also pretty decent at the back and that should be the case again on Monday night.

These teams have met 7 times since August 2017 when Brighton returned to the top flight of English Football and 6 of those games have finished with two or fewer goals shared out. Brighton have not scored in their last 3 at the Amex Stadium against Southampton, but The Saints have only scored more than a single goal in 2 of their 7 games against Brighton.

A 2-1 scoreline wouldn't be the biggest surprise either way, but I do think there this will be a competitive fixture where both defences are largely on top. Goals may not be as likely as some of the layers think and I would not be surprised by any of the low-scoring options in this fixture.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Wolves + 1.25 Asian Handicap
Brighton-Southampton Under 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 11
I had some questions about my Fantasy Football line up for GW10 moments after posting the team on Twitter, but I can't blame people for doing that.

I mean not many would have picked Tomas Soucek, Ollie Watkins and Che Adams to start the week and leave Harry Kane on the bench, but my feeling was that Tottenham Hotspur were not going to score as many goals as the teams that the other three players were performing for.

Effectively my theory was right- Tottenham Hotspur didn't score, while Southampton, West Ham United and Aston Villa all got at least one and combined for five goals.

Sadly that didn't mean anything when it came to the totals as Watkins missed a Penalty and then had a goal chalked off for offside, while Adams and Soucek failed to be involved in the two goals that both of their teams managed to score.

Even the Kane subbing meant nothing as Pep Guardiola continues to use his tombola frustrate FPL players having left Raheem Sterling on the bench- at least he didn't bring him on for five minutes and offer my Captain a single point, but the 57 points earned in GW10 did nothing to appease me or the feeling that I have left some points out there.


I was actually looking forward to GW11- I had a solid eleven players starting and two players on the bench ready to come on if needed.

However I didn't account for Covid-19 causing havoc for my team and the Premier League, but that is the case after the Aston Villa-Newcastle United game was postponed. Three players are out this week and that includes my goalkeeper which means any hope of carrying a transfer over is not going to be possible.

More frustrating is that my bench no longer offers protection for players that may not start and there are some flags surrounding Sergio Reguilon, Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane.

I would be surprised if Kane didn't play in the North London derby and I certainly don't think he will be a substitute- he will either start or not play at all and he looks to be the best Captain choice this week if my predictions above are anything to go by.

I really feel Liverpool may struggle against Wolves, but Mohamed Salah is due a goal and he is the only other player I have considered for the Captaincy option.

It would have been Sterling if not for Guardiola raising doubts about whether he will start despite being questioned about the England international's absence last weekend in the 5-0 win over Burnley. The home game against Fulham would make a Manchester City asset an easy Captain choice, but I made the choice to pick Sterling as a difference maker over Kevin De Bruyne and so I have to go with either Harry Kane or Mohamed Salah.

As of writing it looks to be Kane leading the way for me against an Arsenal team he has enjoyed scoring against in the past.


And what of the transfer? I have been forced into the goalkeeper change knowing the backup I have is not going to play and that means removing Emiliano Martinez this week.

I am going with Alex McCarthy at Southampton who has been in good form and his team have defended pretty well, while fixtures against Brighton, Sheffield United, Arsenal, Manchester City, Fulham and West Ham United should mean I don't have to make another change at that position until the New Year (barring any more unexpected postponements, injury or suspension).

I did think about Matt Ryan for Brighton, but the gut feeling led me to McCarthy despite the similar looking fixture list. The main reason is I think Southampton are more likely to earn the clean sheet on Monday night against Brighton than the other way around, although those could be famous last words.


You can see the team I have gone with in GW11 on Twitter just after the deadline on Saturday morning. Barring any late changes of mind, Harry Kane looks to be the man with the armband this week and I will be keeping my fingers crossed that I have eleven starters as I look to improve on the 57 points scored last weekend.

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