The Championship Week in College Football is one of the best, even when we have waited a little longer to see it.
It's really the only benefit of being home at the moment with no plans in place for the weekend, although I would so much rather be out watching games with friends.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Northwestern Wildcats Pick: The Big Ten had to change the rules regarding their Championship Game to ensure the Ohio State Buckeyes were able to play in it this weekend. The Buckeyes did not reach the minimum of six Conference games that had been set out as their own program and many others in the Big Ten have been adversely affected by the Covid-19 outbreaks that we have seen in College Football.
However a big decision was made to make sure the Ohio State Buckeyes were able to play in the Championship Game and most of the other teams in the Conference accepted it was the right decision. They are the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten with a 5-0 record and that includes being the only team to knock off the Indiana Hoosiers who would played the Conference Championship Game if the rules had not been changed.
The Buckeyes will feel remaining unbeaten and being a Conference Champion will mean they will have earned their place in the College Football PlayOffs, but style points are clearly important to them. They have not played since blowing out the Michigan State Spartans early this month and talk of a 'blow out' will not have been lost on the Northwestern Wildcats who are the surprising opponents for Ohio State in Indianapolis.
The Wildcats finished 6-1 in the Big Ten West and wins over Iowa and Wisconsin means they have to be respected. The surprising loss to the Michigan State Spartans has ended Northwestern's chances of perhaps sneaking into the College Football PlayOff even if they do end up being Big Ten Champions.
It is the Defensive foundation which has given Northwestern the kind of successes they have enjoyed in 2020, but this is going to be a huge test for them on both sides of the ball.
Not often will the Wildcats have faced an Offensive unit like the Ohio State Buckeyes who are well rested and really motivated to show they belong in the top four of College Football. For much of the season the Northwestern Defensive Line has been stout for the underdog, but there have been one or two signs that they are perhaps wearing down and Northwestern are not as rested as Ohio State having been scheduled to play against Illinois last week.
A Running Back by Committee approach has not affected the Buckeyes and they should be able to establish the ground game in this one thanks to a powerful Offensive Line who will be playing at the next level. It is also impossible for the Wildcats to lean towards the line of scrimmage and leave spaces for Justin Fields to attack down the field.
Justin Fields is likely to go to the NFL as the second Quarter Back selected behind Trevor Lawrence, but he will be looking to show he perhaps deserves to be the Number 1 Pick Overall. He has not been as protected as he would like when it comes to passing down the field, but Northwestern have not really generated much of a pass rush of late and they will be looking for the Secondary to win their battles.
This Secondary deserves a lot of respect and may be the reason that Northwestern are able to be competitive in the Championship Game, but it is a big ask to shut down Fields and the passing game for the entire sixty minutes on the field. Add in the potential for Ohio State to rip off some big gains on the ground and it is going to be up to the Wildcats Offensive unit to make the plays to stay with the favourites.
Northwestern are likely to employ a methodical approach to their Offense in a bid to fatigue the Ohio State Defense, while also cooling Justin Fields and company down by keeping them on the sidelines.
On paper they don't seem to match up very well with the Buckeyes and that has to be a concern for the underdog- Northwestern like to establish the run, but the Ohio State Defensive Line has been very good up front, while the Buckeyes Secondary have given up big plays at times.
However, I am not sure that Peyton Ramsey and the Northwestern passing game is good enough to make plays consistently in this Championship Game. If the Wildcats are made a little predictable in their play-calling, Ramsey could find himself under pressure from the pass rush and there is a feeling that a turnover or two will really swing this game towards Ohio State who should be looking to pour it on for as long as possible.
Ultimately I think that is going to be the reason the Buckeyes are able to pull clear and win this game while covering the mark.
I do have to respect how well Northwestern have played this season and the upsets they have pulled to take their place in Indianapolis. They have some solid trends too, but Ohio State are no slouches and the feeling is that their Offensive power is going to force Northwestern to play keep up on the scoreboard which may lead to some mistakes in a big Buckeyes win.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The Big 12 Championship Game is a rematch between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Oklahoma Sooners- in early October the Cyclones were able to upset the Sooners as a 7.5 point underdog and so they won't be that surprised that Vegas believes Oklahoma are the right favourites in the Championship Game too.
It has been yet another stunning season for the Cyclones under the guidance of Matt Campbell and I have no doubt that the Head Coach will be garnering attention from some of the biggest schools in College Football. When Campbell arrived as Head Coach, the Cyclones had one winning season in ten seasons and had been 8-28 in their previous three seasons.
After finishing 3-9 in 2016, Iowa State have won at least seven games in three seasons in a row and they have already produced eight wins in 2020. The College Football PlayOff is perhaps beyond them barring some stunning results in the final week of the regular season, but Iowa State are making history and a win on Saturday would mean a first Conference Championship since 1912 (not a typo) and the first that they have ever won outright.
That is remarkable and a lot of credit has to be given to Matt Campbell, his staff and the players who have bought into the culture.
Beating the Oklahoma Sooners for a second time will be a big challenge though with the Sooners much improved since their first meeting and riding a six game winning run while also being well rested having not played since early December.
Spencer Rattler didn't play badly that day, but he has shown improvement in each passing week and will believe he can lead the Offensive unit to more points. More encouraging for the Quarter Back is that the Oklahoma Sooners have rediscovered their running game after Rhamondre Stevenson returned from a ban and finding the balance on the Offensive side of the ball is very important for the Sooners.
They are going up against a very good Cyclones Defensive unit that has continued to shut down Big 12 Offenses throughout the season. Since beating Oklahoma, only one team has scored more than 24 points against the Cyclones and even Baylor only managed 31 which will always give Iowa State a chance.
Personally I am not sure that Iowa State can slow down the much improved Sooners, while there is going to be a challenge for Brock Purdy and the Cyclones Offensive unit to match their output from their regular season meeting. On that day Iowa State scored 37 points and they found a really good balance Offensively, but now they are facing a Sooners Defensive unit that has come on leaps and bounds since then.
The Oklahoma Defensive Line has been able to shut down the ground game and that has forced teams to try and throw the ball against a much improved Secondary. Brock Purdy may have some success doing so, but the Quarter Back is still sometimes susceptible to getting into a rut within a game and it would mean a huge test for Purdy to show the scouts at the next level that he could make it as a pro too.
I expect Pudry to have some success, but he is likely to be under immense pressure from the Oklahoma pass rush which has come alive in recent games. While the Cyclones Offensive Line have controlled the line of scrimmage and kept Purdy upright, any feeling the team is becoming one-dimensional Offensively is going to give Oklahoma a significant edge.
Games between these schools have been highly competitive in recent years, and that has to be noted, but I do think the revenge factor and the experience Oklahoma have in dealing with the entire week of a Championship Game will give them an edge here.
I am a big fan of Matt Campbell and what he has achieved with the Cyclones, and in general they have been a very good underdog to back in recent seasons. However, Iowa State are 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the underdog on a neutral field and Oklahoma have just been rolling of late which may give them a narrow edge.
As long as the spread is below the converted Touchdown mark I do think the Sooners can be backed to earn a revenge win in the Championship Game.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: The current College Football PlayOff Rankings have the Texas A&M Aggies just outside the top four and that is perhaps not a big surprise when you think they are 7-1 and the sole defeat has come against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Add in the fact that the Aggies have beaten the Florida Gators this season, the SEC East Division Winner and Championship Game opponent for Alabama, and the fans may feel there is still an outside chance of the Aggies playing a PlayOff Game later this month/early next month.
For Texas A&M there is no control of earning that spot- the feeling is that if Clemson and Ohio State are able to win their Championship Games this weekend then it will be Alabama, those two teams and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish that may be selected for the PlayOffs.
However a defeat for either of those two teams and the Aggies will be looking to put on a big performance in Week 16 to show they are perhaps the team that should be allowed into the PlayOff despite not having a Conference title and not even an appearance in the Conference Championship Game to fall back upon.
We have seen that happen previously so there has to be a focus for the Aggies that brings out another big performance- at worst a big win in Week 16 will give them a chance to play in a big Bowl Game this season and underline the progress made under Head Coach Jimbo Fisher.
The Aggies have beaten Florida since losing to Alabama and they have won their last five games since the victory over the Gators by double digits. They have to respect the fact that the 3-6 Tennessee Volunteers have not really capitulated even though the season has not gone the way they would have liked, and Defensively there have been plenty of positives to take for the underdog.
Tennessee's Defensive Line have just been able to clamp down on the run in their most recent games, but shutting down the Aggies on the ground has been too much for most teams this season. Kellen Mond will also have a chance to show off his arm in this one having relied on the ground game and the Defensive unit to win games in recent starts, but the Quarter Back has had a strong season and the Tennessee Secondary has allowed some decent gains to be made through the air.
The dual-threat ability of Mond will make it more difficult to control him and the feeling is that the Aggies are going to want to beat the Tennessee Volunteers by more than the 13 points that Florida managed earlier this month. Tennessee are also preparing to face a highly-motivated Texas A&M team who will want to showcase their talent for any PlayOff Committee members that may be tuning in and that will be a big challenge for the Volunteers.
The Volunteers are a team that seem to rely on being able to run the ball to open everything else up Offensively, but they are not going to find much room on the ground against the Aggies Defensive Line. All season the Texas A&M Defensive Line has prided themselves on being able to slow the run and force teams to try and beat them through the air and I think they will be stout up front against the Volunteers too.
Forcing teams to become one-dimensional has really benefited the Aggies Secondary, which has played well for much of the season but who have been producing eye-catching numbers in their most recent wins. The Aggies pass rush should be able to get the best of the Tennessee Offensive Line too and I think that will be key to perhaps seeing either of Tennessee's Quarter Backs struggle for consistency through the air.
I think that will be important to stalling a couple of drives and helping Texas A&M pull away in this game. They have covered in their last four games as the road favourite, while Tennessee are just 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen as the home underdog.
These teams don't play often so there is not a deep rivalry there and that should mean the extra motivation for the road team helps them clear out another strong win and with a cover too.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Clemson Tigers Pick: The ACC decided they would invite the Notre Dame Fighting Irish into the Conference for this season after Covid-19 disrupted so many in College Football. It could not have worked out better for them with the Fighting Irish going unbeaten in the regular season to take their place in the Championship Game.
One of their nine wins came against the Clemson Tigers in what was a classic regular season game, but the ACC also got their wish to have the two teams paired up in the Championship Game in Week 16.
It is also a testimony to the quality of the Conference that the Tigers and Fighting Irish are both within the top four of the penultimate College Football PlayOff Rankings and both could easily be involved in the final four too. The main road to that happening is the Clemson Tigers winning this ACC Championship Game and the Committee deciding both teams deserve their place in the PlayOff, although you would find it hard to make a case for the Tigers if this is repeat not revenge on Saturday.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish won by 7 points in Overtime when they met in the regular season, but the spread is bigger for the Championship Game. No one will be confused as to why with Trevor Lawrence ready to compete for Clemson and the consensus Number 1 Pick in the next NFL Draft is worth the few more points that the Tigers are having to lay here.
Two years ago Clemson did blow out the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a Bowl Game, but I do think this may be the best edition of the Fighting Irish under Brian Kelly despite some big achievements under this Head Coach. The Tigers have only played twice since losing to the Fighting Irish, but they have blown out both opponents which will give them confidence to take into this Championship Game. However, Lawrence can't expect to have an easy day with the Fighting Irish Defensive unit continuing to play at a high level.
I do think there have been a couple of signs that a long season may have helped wear down the Fighting Irish Defense, but not enough to believe they won't be competitive. They have had a couple of weeks to get healthy and bring in the right game plan to try and slow the Clemson Offensive unit down and that has to be respected.
In saying that, Travis Etienne looks unlikely to be bottled up to the extent the Fighting Irish did when these teams met in the regular season. The Running Back only had 28 yards on the ground despite being handed the ball 18 times, but that may have been down to Trevor Lawrence's absence and Notre Dame looking for the backup Quarter Back DJ Uiagalelei to trt and beat them.
To be fair to Uiagalelei he had a very good game in the first meeting between the teams and I expect Clemson to have a bit more balance this time. Trevor Lawrence is also capable of moving the chains with his legs if the space does open up in front of him and he is throwing in a Secondary which has allowed some big plays through the air.
I expect the Tigers Offensive Line to protect their Quarter Back and I do think Lawrence will show off his talents to those watching from the NFL (hello New York).
No one is going to doubt that the Tigers could pile up the points as they did when they played Notre Dame in the regular season, but the Fighting Irish have to be confident in Ian Book at Quarter Back to give themselves a chance too. There is no doubting the talent of a player who has given the NFL scouts plenty of positives to think about, but, like Clemson, Notre Dame have to run the ball effectively if they are going to have the balance to keep the Tigers guessing.
When they met in November, Notre Dame were able to establish the run very effectively and it may have been the key to the win on the day. They will look to do that again and winning at the line of scrimmage will just open up the playbook, especially as the Clemson Secondary have not played as well as they would have liked or been expected to.
It is hard to really know for sure how the running game will develop, but you have to feel the Fighting Irish can have some success on the ground. That should mean Ian Book is able to have another decent showing against a Defensive unit he produced over 300 yards when these two teams last met.
Turnovers are also going to be important, but I do think Notre Dame have to be respected with the points they are being given.
I haven nothing but respect for Clemson who may still be the best team in College Football, and both teams are very well Coached which should mean they very much prepared for whatever they see on the Football field on Saturday. Both are also strong teams on neutral field and I do think this is going to be a very competitive game which should mean the amount of points that are being offered to Notre Dame are enough to at least mean they are the right side to back.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: They opened the season with a stunning five consecutive losses, but the Penn State Nittany Lions are finally motoring and will be looking to end the regular season with a flourish. A fourth win in a row may be good enough to earn a decent Bowl Game after it was announced that the usual eligibility that is required will be ignored this season.
The Nittany Lions are big favourites when hosting the Illinois Fighting Illini who have fired Lovie Smith after a 2-5 record in 2020.
College Football is different to the professional ranks in that players could easily be looking ahead to the break and not playing for their futures in the same way the pros would be. The Illinois Fighting Illini may be wondering about the direction the school will take, but for most players that won't be something they concern themselves about and it could be easy for them to down tools.
Illinois have lost back to back games by double digits and they do not match up very well with the Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive unit which makes it hard to see them scoring a lot of points in this game. The Fighting Illini will be looking to establish the run, but in recent games the Nittany Lions Defensive Line have really knuckled down up front and that will force the road underdog to try and move the ball through the air.
There will be times Illinois will have success on the ground, but it will only be effective as long as they remain in the game. When they will look to step back and throw the ball, they will be throwing into the Penn State Secondary which have held their last three opponents to under 200 passing yards on average.
All in all the Nittany Lions will believe they can restrict Illinois who have scored thirty-one points in their last two games.
That should give Penn State a real chance to push forward and score enough points to win the game and cover the mark here. The Illinois Defensive Line have really struggled to stop the run in their most recent games as the team have worn down over a long 2020 season and this team might be struggling both mentally and physically.
It will be important for the Nittany Lions to establish the run as the rest of the Offensive unit can bounce off of that- they have shown enough in recent games to believe they can do that and stay in front of the chains no matter who is playing at Quarter Back. Last week the Nittany Lions decided they would give their entire Quarter Back unit some experience during their comfortable win over the Michigan State Spartans, and they will have the same opportunity in Week 16 as long as they establish the ground game and move into a strong position in the game.
You have to credit the numbers produced by the Illinois Secondary, but some of that is down to the fact they have struggled to stop the run and so teams have decided they don't need to throw the ball as much as they may usually. Penn State have found a comfortable balance Offensively which should be on display here and I think that will give them a chance to move the ball up and down the field with some consistency.
Head Coach James Franklin will want his team to finish with a big win and that may lead to a decent Bowl Game being offered to them. It could be important momentum to take into the 2021 season and I like the Nittany Lions to win and cover despite the fact they have not been the best home favourite to back in recent times.
If this game had been played a few weeks ago I may even have liked Illinois to stay within the number, but Penn State should be more motivated than Illinois who have lost their Head Coach and I will look for the favourite to get on top of the number.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators Pick: It has been a difficult season for everyone involved in College Football, but the Alabama Crimson Tide have rolled with the punches and crushed their way into another SEC Championship Game. Even an upset is not likely to keep Alabama out of the final four in the College Football PlayOff, but Nick Saban won't be allowing his team to coast as they look for a Championship win and motor their way into the PlayOffs as the favourites to win it all.
Some are suggesting this may be the best Crimson Tide team we have seen Nick Saban Coaching and that is a testimony to the dominance they have displayed throughout the course of the season. Nothing has stopped Alabama steam-rolling teams and only the Mississippi Rebels have even made life a little awkward for this team.
A couple of weeks ago you would have perhaps been more bullish on the Florida Gators and their chances of upsetting the Crimson Tide, but the defeat to the LSU Tigers in Week 15 would have hurt. It has definitely ended the Gators chances of making the College Football PlayOffs even if they are able to beat Alabama, but there is still a big motivation for the team to take home the SEC Championship.
Narrow losses to the Texas A&M Aggies and the LSU Tigers don't look great for the chances of Florida to get the better of the Alabama juggernaut though. Those same two teams were beaten by Alabama by 28 and 38 points respectively and it will be up to Florida to try and bridge what looks to be a pretty big gap.
Offensively there have been some positives for the Florida Gators throughout the season, but they have not often come up against a team like the Crimson Tide. Over the last few weeks the Crimson Tide have really ramped up their play on that side of the ball and the Alabama Defensive Line will be controlling the line of scrimmage.
Stopping the run and turning Florida into a one-dimensional Offense will make life very difficult for Kyle Trask, although his numbers have remained strong. Unfortunately for Trask he will be put under immense pressure from the Alabama pass rush whenever he is obvious passing downs and distance and the Offensive Line have yet to really offer enough protection to believe they can hold Alabama off.
There will be some drives that Kyle Trask is able to produce some strong throws to move the chains, but ultimately I think the Crimson Tide will end up creating some big plays from the Defensive Line which will stall drives. That is going to put some pressure on the Gators Defense which has not played to the same level as the Offense and that may lead to a big win for the Crimson Tide.
Mac Jones has showed off plenty of talent from the Quarter Back position and the Alabama Crimson Tide have worn down opponents before crushing them. There have been some positive signs from the Gators, but I really don't see many teams beating the Alabama Offensive Line which should mean the run is established and the Quarter Back is in front of the chains for much of the game.
The Gators gave up some big gains on the ground in both of their losses this season and this Crimson Tide Offensive Line is the best they would have faced.
Over the course of the season Florida's Secondary have allowed some big plays to be hit through the air too and I would expect Jones to be playing from third and manageable spots. That will allow him to demonstrate his talent to those watching from the NFL and I expect Alabama to get into a groove Offensively even if they perhaps make a slow start.
Wearing down the Gators and forcing some errant throws on the other side of the ball should mean the Crimson Tide are in a position to pull clear in the SEC Championship Game.
Good teams win, great teams cover and Alabama have done that in their last seven games as they have literally become a manifestation of 'Roll Tide'.
The Gators are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games when set as the underdog on a neutral field. They should be competitive for a while, but I think Alabama will begin to wear down Florida and that should see them win and cover yet again in 2020.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 13.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 16.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
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