Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season has come around pretty quickly and that has something to do with the Covid-19 outbreak which meant Week 13 didn't finish until Tuesday.
Games are increasing in importance all the time as the run towards the PlayOffs gathers pace.
I will update this thread over the coming days, but below you can read my pick from Thursday Night Football.
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: Covid-19 regulations means this has had the feel of a different kind of week for the New England Patriots. They played in Los Angeles in this same Stadium in Week 13 and were given an opportunity by the NFL to stay on the West Coast for this Thursday Night Football game, although the Patriots have had to isolate and be involved in online walkthroughs in preparation for this one.
The Patriots did blow out the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday and that has moved them back to 6-6 for the 2020 season. A strong finish will still see the Patriots earn their spot in the PlayOffs, but there isn't much room for error even though New England have three Divisional Games to come following this Thursday Night outing and that does bring the potential for a distraction.
There will be time to prepare for the games against the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets with the time between Week 14 and Week 15 offering the Patriots a mini-bye. That should give Bill Belichick all of the focus he needs to try and get the better of the Los Angeles Rams who won't have forgotten the Super Bowl defeat to the New England Patriots in February 2019.
Revenge cannot be the only motivation for the Rams who moved to the top of the NFC West after beating the Arizona Cardinals on the road on the same day that the Seattle Seahawks were upset by the New York Giants. A battle to win the Division is still in front of the Rams so they can't afford to drop any games either and that should mean we have a competitive game on Thursday Night Football which didn't have a running in Week 13 after the Baltimore Ravens had to shift their game against the Dallas Cowboys to Tuesday.
Both teams will be looking to run the ball and control the clock in this one and I do think it is a good game between teams who have some of the sharpest minds in the NFL on each sideline. Bill Belichick versus Sean McVay should be fascinating to watch when the Los Angeles Rams have the ball and there is no doubt that McVay will want to show he has learnt plenty from overseeing his team scoring just three points in the Super Bowl loss to New England.
Cam Akers could miss out for the Rams, but they will likely suit up Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson Jr to run the ball for them. It is important to try and keep Jared Goff in front of the chains and make sure the Quarter Back is at ease with the field position to avoid him getting flustered and rattled into making mistakes.
However it won't be easy for the Rams to run the ball with consistency against this New England Defensive Line, especially not with the injuries on the Offensive Line which have contributed to their poor rushing numbers. I think that may be the case for Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football and it will likely lead to the Rams playing from third and long spots which is not ideal for Goff at Quarter Back.
There have been one or two holes in the New England Secondary which have been attacked, but I also do think Bill Belichick is going to try and cover up the likes of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods and force Jared Goff to read through his progressions. In the Super Bowl a little over eighteen months ago it was a Belichick Defensive unit which shut down a powerful Los Angeles Offensive unit so there is a feeling he can do the same here.
While I do think New England are going to have some success Defensively, it is going to be a much tougher day Offensively than they had in the win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. That win was sparked by a number of huge Special Teams plays, but I am not sure they are going to have the same kind of successes against this Rams Defensive unit which continues to play at a high level.
I am not going to say the New England Offense is predictable, but I do think they are very much a run first team. If they can establish the ground game they become dangerous, but Cam Newton has not been blessed with the best Receiving corps and it has perhaps been part of the issues the former Carolina Panther has had when it comes to throwing down the field.
Unfortunately for the Patriots, I do think they are going to have a hard time running the ball against this Los Angeles Defensive Line even with a scrambling Quarter Back behind Center. If the Rams can clamp down on the run, it will mean Newton has to find some quick throws, screens and also use his legs to try and move the chains, but that may not be easy to do either.
The Rams do get some pressure up front so may be able to rush Cam Newton and I do think it is going to be hard for the Patriots to move the ball up and down the field. They will be looking to make use of short fields and turnovers to try and get into scoring position, but overall it should be a difficult day for New England.
Both teams may have one or two issues moving the ball Offensively and that leans me towards backing the under in this game.
It will be the first over/under I have backed this season, but this feels like being a low-scoring game and I would not be surprised if only one team managed to produce more than 20 points.
The under has actually gone 4-1 in the last five New England games as the underdog and is a perfect 5-0 in the last five Rams games as a home favourite. It is also a play that is 5-2 in the last seven between these teams and I do think points will be hard to come by, while the game could be shortened if both teams are making quick passes in place of a running game.
My feeling is that the Rams may just win and cover too, but it is not as strong a feeling as this game ending up below the total points line.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Pick: For a long time in 2020 the NFC East has been taking its shots from critics with all four teams looking amongst the poorest in the entire NFL. None of them have a winning record with four weeks left of the season, but all of a sudden the Washington Football Team have won three in a row and the New York Giants have won four in a row.
Both teams are at 5-7 and the Giants will be looking to keep their noses in front in the Division as they hold the tie-breaker over Washington. The Giants won a big road game at the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 which will give them a lot of confidence, especially as it was the first time in 2020 that the Giants have beaten a team with a winning record.
They will be hosting the Arizona Cardinals who were at 6-3, but who have since dropped three in a row and are under some pressure to stay in touch with the leading teams in the NFC West and also the NFC Wild Card places. Injuries have not helped the Cardinals and the early start on the East Coast is not ideal for a team who have not won since the Hail Murray play which beat the Buffalo Bills.
During the three game losing run Kyler Murray has not really looked himself and teams have begun to focus on stopping him on the run and forcing him to turn to his left when he does want to scramble and throw on the run. That has had an impact in his performances and now he has to take on a Giants Defensive unit which is perhaps not rated as highly as they should be.
New York's Secondary have been very difficult to throw the ball against thanks to the pressure they are getting up front and that is going to be an issue for Arizona. While it is next to impossible to stop DeAndre Hopkins having a big impact on the game, the Giants will believe they can shut down other options in the passing game and also force Murray to rush his throws which could lead to turnovers and negative plays.
The Cardinals have been struggling to run the ball of late too, but they may have a chance to get back on track somewhat in this game. As good as the New York Defense has been in recent games, the Defensive Line do give up some big plays on the ground and both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds are capable of establishing the run, while Murray is still a threat to take off with his legs and move the chains.
Even then I do think the Giants can at least limit the amount of points Arizona score and that will give them a real chance of securing an upset.
Daniel Jones may be ready to return for New York at Quarter Back, but Colt McCoy played well enough at Seattle to believe he can have some successes if he is called upon again. Personally I think Jones will get the start and he does have some big Receiving options available which will give him a chance to have a good game, even if it has to be said that Jones is never far away from a back breaking turnover.
Wayne Gallman is no Saquon Barkley, but he should be able to have some good runs in this one and that will help out his Quarter Back. Daniel Jones is also capable with his legs and I think they can stay in front of the chains which should give the Giants a big opportunity to score points in this one.
The passing game has not exactly lit up the scoreboard of late, but the Giants should offer Jones or McCoy enough time to make their plays into this Arizona Secondary. In recent games the Cardinals have struggled to get a consistent pass rush going and that may show up here too which will give the New York Quarter Back the time to make throws down the field.
It feels like this is going to be a close and competitive game, but you can't ignore the momentum the two teams have built up ahead of Week 14. While the Giants are winning and feeling good, Arizona have been going the other way and the early Eastern Time slot is not ideal.
The Cardinals did beat the Giants here last season, but they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as the favourite.
New York have covered in their last seven as the underdog and I think they have every chance of winning this game outright.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: An Overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars has kept the Minnesota Vikings alive when it comes to the PlayOff picture in the NFC. At 6-6 there isn't a lot of room for error for the Vikings who have won five of their last six games, but this could be a pivotal game for them as they look to earn the tie-breaker over a potential Wild Card rival in the Conference.
That makes it a big game for the visitors, but don't underestimate the importance of the game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are hoping the Bye Week has allowed them to fix one or two issues they continue to have. The main issue seems to be the Head Coach and the Quarter Back not being on the same page and the Buccaneers went into the Bye Week having lost three of their last four games to fall to 7-5.
Those losses against the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs have perhaps shown the Buccaneers are not ready to beat some of the best teams in the NFL. That is despite the obvious talent they have on both sides of the ball and with a veteran, future Hall of Fame Quarter Back running the show.
Tom Brady has not always looked at his best in this system which is not really taking into consideration his strengths. Instead the rumours are that Bruce Arians refuses to compromise on how he wants his teams to play Offensively and there has been some discord between the two men who were supposed to come together and make the Buccaneers a favourite to become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home Stadium.
Right now Tampa Bay are just searching for a way into the PlayOffs and I do expect them to match up well with the Minnesota Defensive unit which has suffered injuries and not playing to the level we have come to expect under Mike Zimmer. The Buccaneers should be able to hand the ball off to Ronald Jones and/or Leonard Fournette and I would expect them to at least keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains and thus open up the playbook for Tom Brady.
There has been little sign in recent games that the Vikings Defensive Line are suddenly going to clamp down on the run and that should mean Jones and Fournette both have their moments ripping off some big gains. Tom Brady should then be able to exploit a Secondary which struggled to contain Mike Glennon in Week 13, while the Quarter Back won't be bothered by a heavy pass rush and so should have time to find the likes of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown down the field.
Running the ball has been a key strength for the Minnesota Offense this season, but Dalvin Cook is going to have problems as they try and control the clock and keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. As good as Cook has been, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been able to stop the run and the Defensive Line will feel they can dominate the trenches in this one too.
He could be a threat coming out of the backfield and giving Kirk Cousins a safety blanket, but it will be difficult for Cook on the ground and that will give Tampa Bay a significant advantage in the game. Forcing Minnesota to rely on Kirk Cousins could see the Buccaneers find a way to create a couple of turnovers, although Cousins will believe there is a weakness in the Secondary that he can exploit with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
I do think Kirk Cousins would be right to think that, but if he is in obvious passing downs and distance he will be under pressure as the Minnesota Offensive Line has struggled in protection. The Buccaneers don't have the most effective pass rush in the NFL, but they can get to Cousins who will have to scramble and also try and make throws under duress to keep the Vikings moving.
Doing that consistently has yet to be proven by Cousins in his NFL career and he will have to be wary of the Secondary creating turnovers. While there are going to be some solid drives from Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, I do think the lack of balance could prove costly against a well rested opponent who have a point to prove.
I do think Tampa Bay will have worked out one or two kinks during their Bye Week and that should give them an edge with the balance Offensively working in their favour.
Tampa Bay are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against Minnesota, while the Buccaneers have covered in their last four games following a straight up loss. This is a considerable number, but I do think the home team will be a little more rested and ready to go and can beat the Vikings in what could be a vital game when it comes to the final PlayOff spots.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: After impressive back to back wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts, it was strange to see the Tennessee Titans lay an egg in their Week 13 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. They will be looking to bounce back having dropped to 8-4 which means sharing the AFC South lead with the Colts, and the Titans really can't afford to drop a Divisional game.
It is especially the case when facing the Jacksonville Jaguars who were beaten for the eleventh time in a row in Week 13 having forced Overtime against the Minnesota Vikings. The Jaguars are still not holding the worst record in the NFL which would offer them the chance to Draft their next Quarter Back, but they are in a position to have a very high selection anyway.
The players are not going to concern themselves about the future as most will be playing for the chance to play in the NFL themselves. That has seen Jacksonville continue to play hard even if they have come up short and I think that kind of effort will be good enough to at least stay competitive in Florida.
Mike Glennon is the latest Quarter Back to be given an opportunity to impress at Jacksonville and he has been an upgrade on recent performers. There are still times Glennon can be criticised for making the wrong decision or allowing a back-breaking turnover, but this looks a good chance for him to have a strong outing.
In recent weeks the emergence of James Robinson at Running Back has at least given the Offensive unit a boost and a chance to play in front of the chains. I expect the Jaguars to offer up a heavy dose of Robinson again, although the big test in the trenches is establishing the run against an improving Tennessee Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on rush.
Some of that may be down to the fact that teams have had a lot of joy throwing the ball against the banged up Secondary, but I do expect the Jaguars to try and get the ball into James Robinson's hands and look for him to make some big plays for them.
The Quarter Back is not exactly loaded with Receiving talent, but there is enough here for Jacksonville to have success with Mike Glennon. His Offensive Line has not only played well when opening holes for the Running Back, but they have also protected Glennon and the limited Tennessee pass rush is unlikely to put pressure on him here.
It should mean Mike Glennon is able to make some big throws against this Secondary and I do think Jacksonville are capable of scoring enough points to at least keep the game close.
Tennessee struggled out of the gate last week, but Offensively they have really been in good form of late and I expect Derrick Henry to have a big game. He lost a rare Fumble last week, but Henry should crack open some big runs against this Jacksonville Defensive Line which has allowed an average of 152 yards per game on the ground across their last three.
Running the ball should give the Titans the chance to wear down this Defense with some long drives, while it also opens things up for Ryan Tannehill. Like his counterpart, Tannehill is expected to make some solid throws against a Secondary giving up big numbers and the former Miami Dolphin should be comfortable playing in Florida at this time of the year.
You do have to expect the Titans to bounce back from their loss last week, but I do think both teams will chew up some clock as they look to establish the run and also with successes connecting with some big plays through the air. Tennessee only won narrowly when hosting Jacksonville earlier this season and I do think the Jaguars should be motivated to try and upset a Divisional rival.
The Jaguars are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine at home against the Titans and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.
Tennessee are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight as the favourite and this is a team that has tended to play up and down to the level of opponent faced. While I do expect the Titans to prevail, I think the Jacksonville Jaguars could secure a backdoor cover at the very least in this one.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There is still a chance for the Dallas Cowboys to make the PlayOffs despite sitting at 3-9, although the pressure is on to win their final four games and then hope for help from others. The losses to Washington and Baltimore in the last couple of weeks have come with little resistance which has to be a worry, but you have to believe Andy Dalton is going to be highly motivated when facing his former team for the first time.
Andy Dalton was jettisoned by the Cincinnati Bengals who have moved on to a new franchise Quarter Back, but Joe Burrow is out and the Bengals are completely banged up in all units. That should give Dalton a chance to win in his former home, although he is going to need some support from his team-mates who have looked like they can't wait until the end of the season.
In usual circumstances I think I would move right past this game as two bad teams face one another, and the Cowboys are coming in off a short week. However I do think the Quarter Back can inspire his team for revenge while I am not sure the Cincinnati Bengals are going to be able to score more than 14 points in this one which makes any cover tough to come by.
Brandon Allen is going to make his third start in place of Joe Burrow at Quarter Back, but he has been offered very little pass rush protection from his Offensive Line and has been banged up over the last two weeks. Even though he will play here, I would not be surprised if the Cowboys are able to generate some pressure against Allen and at least bring him down a couple of times to stall drives.
There are injuries in the Dallas Secondary, but that pressure will help them and Cincinnati have shown little consistency throwing the ball since Burrow went down.
One of the other reasons the Dallas Secondary have decent numbers is because teams have been able to run against them with very little resistance. They gave up almost 300 yards on the ground to the Baltimore Ravens on Tuesday, but this Cincinnati Offensive Line is banged up and Joe Mixon remains absent and I am not sure the Bengals are going to be able to take advantage of Dallas here. Giovani Bernard has not really filled in as the Bengals would have liked and I do think their Offensive Line issues could see drives ending with Field Goals or Punts more often than not.
It is that aspect which makes me believe backing a team with three wins as a road favourite is the right play in Week 14 of the 2020 season. Offensive Line issues is something that Dallas will sympathise with but the Cincinnati Bengals have found very little pressure so there is a real chance that Andy Dalton will have the time to hit what is still a solid Receiving corps down the field.
Some reports are suggesting that Ezekiel Elliot could be ruled out and that will hurt the Dallas Cowboys as the Bengals have been pretty good at defending the run. If he is able to go I still think Elliot can put the Cowboys in front of the chains and just put his Quarter Back in a very strong position to make plays and put Dallas in a position to win the game.
The former Bengal will have to be wary of the Cincinnati Secondary, which is one of the better parts of the Cincinnati Defensive unit, although they have not been able to completely shut down the pass. I expect the likes of Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz and Amari Cooper to give Andy Dalton the kind of threats to move the ball up and down the field and I do think Dallas can win here.
The trends are pointing towards the Cincinnati Bengals, but I simply don't think Brandon Allen can help this team score enough points to stay competitive. They had a backdoor cover against the New York Giants a couple of weeks ago and almost did the same against the Miami Dolphins in Week 14, but I am keen on backing a motivated Andy Dalton to get one over on his former team.
The Cowboys are a bad team, but so are the banged up Cincinnati Bengals who have a big game with Pittsburgh on deck and may be focusing on that rather than this non-Conference game. I don't feel great backing a road favourite like Dallas, but that is where I find myself in Week 14 as long as you don't have to back them over the key number 3.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Green Bay Packers may hold the tie-breaker over the New Orleans Saints in the NFC, but the race for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference is likely to go down to the wire. At the point the Packers are a game behind the Saints so the only thing on their minds has to be winning out and hoping New Orleans slip.
You can't ignore the importance of winning the Number 1 Seed as that will be the only team earning a Bye in the PlayOffs. In recent years those teams receiving a Bye have had a big advantage in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs and beyond and the sole team with that Bye in the bag are going to be feeling really good about their chances.
The Packers are big favourites on the road, but this is a Divisional game and the Detroit Lions played with plenty of heart to come from behind and beat the Chicago Bears in Week 13. That came in the days after Matt Patricia was fired as Head Coach and there are going be some big changes coming up in Detroit, although Interim Head Coach Darrell Bevell will be trying to keep his players focused on giving their all with the next four weeks an effective job interview.
If the Week 13 win over the Bears is anything to go by then we should expect to see the Lions offering plenty here. Matthew Stafford may not be the future of the franchise at Quarter Back now changes are coming, but there is still plenty coming from the veteran even though his Receiving corps remains banged up.
Matthew Stafford will be challenged by the Green Bay Packers Secondary which has recovered key players and that also seen an improvement in the numbers. I do think Stafford has shown he can find the creases in any Defensive backfield, but he will also be aware that the Detroit Offensive Line has not offered a lot of time and now Stafford is going to be dealing with a Packers pass rush that is playing at a high level.
Teams have been able to at least try and establish the run to keep the Packers Offense on the sidelines and remain in front of the chains with their own Offense. However the Detroit Offensive Line have not only struggled in pass protection, and the lack of holes up front has made it very difficult for Detroit to run the ball as they would like.
D'Andre Swift could be back for Detroit which will give them a huge boost, but even then his bigger threat may be picking up passes out of the backfield and giving Matthew Stafford a safety blanket.
I do still think Detroit will have some success as they did when meeting the Packers in Green Bay, but on that day their own Defensive unit were not able to slow Aaron Rodgers down. With problems in the Lions Secondary, I do think Rodgers is set to have another big game for the Green Bay Packers and he has gotten some key players back on that side of the ball which makes this team even more dangerous.
Allan Lazard may not be one of the stand out names on the roster, but he offers Aaron Rodgers another target opposite Davante Adams and just makes this team a little more dangerous. Aaron Rodgers has continued to play with a chip on his shoulder in 2020 despite the lack of weapons Drafted for him earlier this year and Green Bay should be able to move the ball through the air against a banged up Detroit Secondary.
With little pass rush pressure, I do think Rodgers will have time to make his plays and the Quarter Back has largely looked after the ball which is key. He should keep the Offensive drives moving up and down the field with his arm and Green Bay look capable of winning a shoot out.
The Lions will at least believe their Defensive Line are able to make some plays up front to clamp down on the run, but Green Bay have a strong Offensive Line and they have been dominating the trenches. It should offer Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams some strong running lanes and just means the Packers will have the kind of balance which may see them pull away for a big win.
Detroit have to be respected as they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home against Green Bay.
However they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when playing a team with a winning record.
Green Bay are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten as the favourite and have been very good when playing Divisional rivals of late. I think this could be a high-scoring game, but I think Green Bay are more likely to end drives with Touchdowns rather than the Detroit Lions and it may see them pull away for the win and the cover here.
MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams-New England Patriots Under 43.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Giants + 2.5 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Washington Football Team + 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)
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