The College Football season is scrambling my mind when it tries to work out what time of the year it is- instead of looking forward to Championship Games and the end of the regular season, we still have two weeks to play.
Covid-19 has really made a big impact on the scheduling too which may mean one or two big schools miss out on their goals because they haven't played enough games to be eligible for a Championship, but all we can do is keep on trucking and hope the season is completed without too many more disruptions.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: 2020 has been a difficult year for many, but the Penn State Nittany Lions will be aware that they have underachieved so far this season. While the pandemic has made it challenging for teams up and down the nation, both professional and collegiate, that isn't an excuse for James Franklin as Head Coach.
He will be keen to see his team finish with a flourish having opened 2020 with a 0-5 record before beating rivals Michigan Wolverines last week. Keeping the players focused on this game between a battle with the Wolverines and the Michigan State Spartans won't be easy though and the Nittany Lions are up against a feisty Rutgers Scarlet Knights team.
Greg Schiano might not have made the impact in the NFL that he would have liked, but he has returned to Rutgers as Head Coach having had considerable success in his first stint with the team. The Scarlet Knights might have a 2-5 record, but they have pushed the likes of the Indiana Hoosiers and Ohio State Buckeyes and none of the seven opponents faced will feel they had an easy day.
The most disappointing loss has to be the one to the Illinois Fighting Illini, but Rutgers are surpassing expectations having been an underdog in six of the seven games played. They are a big underdog again in Week 14, but the Scarlet Knights are coming in off an upset of the Purdue Boilermakers and they may feel that Penn State are going to overlook them.
Rutgers were beaten comfortably on the road in Happy Valley last season, but I do think they are capable of making this one a much more competitive outing.
Much is going to depend on the trenches and which team is able to come out on top and I do have to give Penn State an advantage there. While the Nittany Lions are expected to have some success running the ball, the key for Rutgers is trying to establish the ground game in this one having struggled for consistency behind the Offensive Line all season.
I do think both teams are going to be able to throw the ball with some success too, although once again there has to be a slight advantage to Penn State and it is the reason the layers believe they are going to win and have them down as a big favourite. However the Nittany Lions have not enjoyed that tag this season and have lost as a big favourite already once this season and not taking Rutgers as seriously as they should may prove costly for Penn State.
They are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven Conference games and Penn State are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the favourite.
On the other side Rutgers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the underdog and I do think the Scarlet Knights have played tough all season to take the points in this game.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: The College Football PlayOff Committee and the Big Ten Conference have different criteria for the end of the regular season and that has put some pressure on the Ohio State Buckeyes. They are unbeaten in four games, but the Buckeyes have to play at least six games to be eligible to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, although the College Football PlayOff selections don't ask for a minimum number of games to be completed.
Of course they will have to factor in everything before deciding their final four and there is a suggestion that the Buckeyes will be in danger of missing out on the PlayOffs if they are not able to win a Championship.
The more immediate concern for the Buckeyes is that they need to make sure they play the remaining two games on their regular season schedule. Last week they had to postpone a Conference game and will be facing Michigan State Spartans and Michigan Wolverines to finish the season, but the Buckeyes have admitted they are going to be short-handed for this Week 14 game on the road.
While Ohio State are unbeaten and looking to earn their spot in the Championship Game, the Michigan State Spartans are at 2-3 and been a hard team to predict. They have been upset in their first game and the Spartans have been blown out by Iowa and Indiana, but they have also been able to upset Michigan on the road and also beat Northwestern which has ended the Wildcats unbeaten start to the 2020 season.
Head Coach Ryan Day will not be travelling with his team, but as long as Justin Fields is playing Quarter Back the Ohio State Buckeyes will feel they can win this game. They will certainly be able to move the ball with their Quarter Back who is likely to go either Number 1 or Number 2 overall in the next NFL Draft with Fields set alongside Trevor Lawrence as the top prospects in that position.
Justin Fields did not have his best outing against the Indiana Hoosiers, but you can't deny his performance at clutch times in that game. This game should be much better for Fields who is not playing a Secondary like the one that Indiana have trotted out onto the field, although the feeling is that he will be leant on in this game.
Like many Spartans teams of the past, the Defensive Line is pretty good when it comes to stopping the run. However you do have to wonder if paying too much attention to Justin Fields will open things up on the ground especially with the way the Buckeyes have been running the ball all season.
It is something to consider because Michigan State are not likely to stop Justin Fields when he throws into their Secondary, although the Spartans can have some success trying to bring the Quarter Back down.
Ohio State should be able to move the ball with successes throughout this game and the real challenge for Michigan State is being able to the same with an inconsistent Offense they have displayed all season. The Spartans have not had any consistency running the ball in 2020 and this Buckeyes Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on Running Backs and force teams to become a little one-dimensional against them.
Again the question is how many of the starters are not going to be able to suit up, but the Buckeyes should have the schemes to at least slow down the Spartans and make Ricky Lombardi beat them from the Quarter Back position. There are holes in the Buckeyes Secondary that other teams have exploited, but Lombardi has struggled to avoid turnovers and I do think some of the drives will be ended by mistakes from Michigan State rather than anything special produced by Ohio State.
Ricky Lombardi is also going to be put under intense pressure by the Ohio State pass rush as he has not been protected by the Michigan State Offensive Line as much as he would like. Running out of time has led to mistakes from this Quarter Back and I think that will help the Buckeyes make a statement and try and impress the PlayOff Committee even if they are not able to complete the regular season and play the Big Ten Championship Game.
The Buckeyes are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at Michigan State and they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as the road favourite.
Michigan State have struggled at home for some time now and they are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the underdog. While this is a big number, I do think Ohio State will be looking to score as many points as possible to underline their status as one of the best teams in the nation and that should see them make enough plays to cover.
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: The Iowa State Cyclones and the Oklahoma Sooners have the inside track to the Big 12 Championship Game, but that does not mean the Oklahoma State Cowboys are going to allow themselves to give up their chase. At the moment they are only outside of the top two in the Conference because of the head to head with their rivals Sooners, but the Cowboys have the tie-breaker over the Cyclones and they are only a game behind them.
All of that can't be taken for granted for the Oklahoma State Cowboys and they can't afford to overlook the TCU Horned Frogs who are 4-4 and looking to end their season with a flourish. It may afford the Horned Frogs a chance to play in a Bowl Game, and they have won three of their last four games which should give TCU some real confidence.
Gary Patterson has admitted that his team are struggling in the trenches, but that has not stopped them from performing at the kind of levels that we have become used to seeing from TCU.
Injuries will have affected so many teams up and down the country so Patterson will not be feeling sorry for his players and instead will be demanding the end of the season keeps the momentum behind them. Four wins in five will see TCU have plenty of experience to take into 2021 and they will also want to have those extra practices that come with Bowl Games.
The Head Coach has to be confident after what he has seen from his Offensive unit and especially the way that TCU have been running the ball. In recent games there have been signs that the Oklahoma State Defensive Line have just been worn down and I do think Zach Evans and Darwin Barlow can pick up from where they left off in Week 13 and perhaps go into the 2021 season as the best Running Back tandem in the Big 12.
An ability to run the ball as efficiently as TCU have been able to do in recent games will certainly give them a real chance to not only keep themselves in front of the chains throughout this game, but also control the clock. The Cowboys Defensive Line have given up over 220 yards per game on the ground on average in their last three and the Horned Frogs should have a strong day.
It is important they are able to run the ball as they have because the Horned Frogs have not been as strong when it comes to throwing the ball. Some of that is down to the control they have had on the ground though and there may be one or two holes to exploit in the Secondary, especially as TCU should have plenty of time to throw the ball with a strong run established.
Running the ball has been a key for Oklahoma State this season, but Chuba Hubbard and LD Brown have been missing and both may be absent for this one. The Cowboys were not slowed down against the Texas Tech Red Raiders even without Hubbard and Brown, but that is going to be a big challenge against the Horned Frogs Defensive Line which has really clamped down on Offenses up front.
Spencer Sanders has not really had to do a lot for the Cowboys in recent games, but the Quarter Back may need to do more if Oklahoma State are not able to run the ball as they are used to. His numbers are not leaping off the page of late, but Sanders should have some success against the TCU Secondary which has given up one or two big plays.
However it is the TCU pass rush which may be able to make the big difference in this game and I think that is the reason the Horned Frogs will be able to secure a minor upset.
The underdog is 5-0 against the spread in the last five of this Divisional series and the home team is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight.
Some of the recent trends from TCU are not that impressive, but I think they may be able to run the ball more effectively than Oklahoma State and that should give them every chance to win this game.
Texas Longhorns @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: Tom Herman has to know his time at Texas is drawing to a close as the Longhorns finished on the wrong end of a tight loss to the Iowa State Cyclones in Week 13. That has left Texas with a disappointing 4-3 record in the Big 12 and it is going to take a strange set of results for the Longhorns to be playing in the Championship Game.
Ultimately that is the sole goal for the Longhorns who expect to be National Championship contenders every season, but under Herman they have come up short. We will know how much the players still want to play for him in their remaining two regular season games beginning with this trip to Manhattan to face the Kansas State Wildcats who have lost four in a row to drop to 4-4 in the Conference.
There is work to do for the Kansas State to earn enough wins to finish Bowl eligible, but recent narrow losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor will at least encourage the players.
However it would be hard to ignore the fact that the Wildcats have not been looking as effective Offensively since losing leading Quarter Back Skylar Thompson and that may show up against a Texas Defensive unit that have kept their team competitive. Will Howard has not really shown he can replicate the passing that Thompson may have given Kansas State and it does feel like the Wildcats Offense does not match up very well in this game.
While they have been able to run the ball and struggle to throw, the Texas Longhorns Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run but have struggled in the Secondary. I am not sure Will Howard can really exploit the holes in the Secondary and he has been loose with the ball which has meant turnovers and mistakes and those can be very costly for any team.
In saying that this may still be a difficult number for Texas to cover with their season almost certainly over after losing to Iowa State. This is a team who have not run the ball as well as they would have liked which means all the pressure is on Sam Ehlinger at Quarter Back and he has simply not been able to play at a level consistently enough to help Texas overcome their issues.
Sam Ehlinger hasn't played badly and he is capable of scrambling for First Downs as well as throw the ball effectively. I do think the Quarter Back will have some successes, but he has to be worried about the Offensive Line when it comes to protecting Ehlinger from the pass rush and Kansas State have shown enough on the edges to believe they can get to the Quarter Back.
That does raise some doubts about the road favourite and Texas have had a poor time when visiting Kansas State.
The Longhorns also have a poor record as a favourite, while Kansas State are 20-8 against the spread in their last twenty-eight games as the home underdog. You can only respect the Wildcats for that, but I am not sure I can trust Will Howard to avoid the mistakes that will eventually give Texas the chance to pull clear.
I am not that happy to back Texas, but I think they can at least play hard for their Head Coach a couple more times before the Bowl season and a late turnover or two could lead to the cover in this big game.
Syracuse Orange @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: I know it would be easy to suggest the unbeaten Notre Dame Fighting Irish could overlook their remaining regular season games in the ACC as they have already secured a spot in the Championship Game. The usually Independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish do have a potentially huge rematch against the Clemson Tigers to come so they won't want to risk players that are banged up, but Brian Kelly will be aware of the importance of finishing this season with a maximum of one defeat if they are going to have any chance of making the College Football PlayOff.
Assuming they play the Clemson Tigers close again, even a narrow defeat may not put the PlayOff Committee off from picking Notre Dame to play in the National Championship Semi Final. However it is clear a defeat to either the Syracuse Orange or Wake Forest Demon Deacons will definitely mean the Fighting Irish would have to win the ACC Championship Game to earn a top four place.
That should focus the players who also hold a clear talent edge over Syracuse and I expect that to show up in a relatively comfortable win.
Relatively comfortable doesn't mean cover though.
The Orange might be 1-8 in Conference play this season and Dino Babers will already be looking for his team to build experience that will stand them in better stead in 2021, but Syracuse showed enough fight last week to believe they won't roll over in this one. They have suffered some blow out losses, but Syracuse have not been beaten by more than 30 points and that includes playing Clemson and the North Carolina Tar Heels who are right in behind Notre Dame as the best teams in the Conference.
Rex Culpepper won't have heard the end of his strange decision to clock the ball last week when he was at Fourth Down, but it was a mistake from the Quarter Back and it was arguably his best game of the season. This is another top Defensive team that Culpepper is going up against, but the Fighting Irish have given up some big yards through the air in recent games and that has to encourage the Syracuse Quarter Back in being able to have a strong showing in this one too.
Even then it is hard to imagine a player with eight Touchdowns and seven Interceptions is going to have enough to beat the Fighting Irish, especially without the balance Offensively that will have aided him. Rex Culpepper will not have much of a running game to fall back upon and his Offensive Line have not protected the Quarter Back very well so the key for Culpepper is to try and play as clean a game as possible.
In recent games he has done that, but it is still a big challenge for Rex Culpepper although I do think he can make enough plays to put some scores on the board.
Scoring points won't be a real issue for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and I expect Ian Book to have another big game at Quarter Back as he continues to raise his personal stock to those watching in the professional ranks. I expect Book to have some very good numbers, but the Fighting Irish will also be looking to impose themselves in the trenches as they look to pound the ball against a Syracuse Defensive Line that have played well.
Ian Book will also be aware that while he has been well protected by his Offensive Line, the Syracuse pass rush has been effective in recent games. They might at least give Book something to think about and if the Fighting Irish are forced to slowly grind their way down the field with their running game it could the Orange an opportunity to at least stay within this big number.
The Orange have a 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven games when playing a team with a winning record. Notre Dame have been a very good favourite to back in recent times, but they have rarely been asked to cover a number like this one and only twice this season have they won games by more than 18 points.
The Fighting Irish beat Syracuse by 33 points when last playing them two seasons ago, but this one may be a touch closer than that and that means I will be taking the points on offer.
Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: A win over an overmatched non-Conference opponent wouldn't have given anyone goosebumps, especially not as the Oklahoma Sooners followed up with back to back Conference losses. It felt like their long-time dominance of the Big 12 was coming to an end, but the Sooners have won five games in a row now.
That means they are going to be playing in the Conference Championship Game is they can win out over the next two weeks, although the biggest opponent for the Sooners may actually be Covid-19. While they are following as many of the protocols as they can to as high a level as they can, but they had to postpone the game with the West Virginia Mountaineers and these are the kind of times when an outbreak is never too far away.
At the time of writing Oklahoma are going to be taking to the field and opposing the 2-5 Baylor Bears who are still getting used to the schemes that have been put in place by a first year Head Coach. It is a far cry from 2019 when Baylor played the Big 12 Championship Game against Oklahoma under Matt Rhule, but their former Head Coach is now in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers and Dave Aranda has had a difficult first season.
While the Oklahoma Sooners were being forced to postpone a game, the Baylor Bears have at least doubled their win total in Week 13. That may give them some confidence and belief, but the Bears have to hope the Sooners have been cooled down from the levels they have been producing with their unexpected break in the schedule.
Defensively there have been some real signs of improvement from Oklahoma and they will feel they can have a strong day against Charlie Brewer and this Baylor Offensive unit. The Defensive Line has clamped down on the run and it has been a challenge for Baylor to establish that element of their Offense anyway which means the pressure is on Brewer at Quarter Back.
Charlie Brewer has had some successes throwing the ball, but his Offensive Line has not been able to protect him like they would wish and I am not sure how Baylor are going to keep the Sooners from infiltrating the backfield. A really strong pass rush has protected the improving Oklahoma Secondary who have also been taking advantage of the pressure to pick off stray passes.
It all suggests the Sooners can force extra possessions and short fields and that should make things fairly easy for them when they do have the ball. Oklahoma have found a real balance in their Offensive output and I am not sure the Baylor Defensive Line will be able to do enough to slow them down on the ground which is going to open up the playbook for the favourites.
Spencer Rattler had a very big game when helping Oklahoma win Bedlam, but he may not need to do as much in this one if his team are able to establish the run. The Baylor numbers in the Secondary have been pretty good in 2020, but some of that has to come down to the fact they have not been able to stop the run and I think the Sooners will put a statement win on the board as they close in on their own place in the Championship Game.
Both games between these teams were close last season and Baylor have a strong 6-1-1 record against the spread in their last eight games as the road underdog. However Oklahoma have covered in their last five as the favourite and crushed the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their last game here.
I expect they will find the spark from some big Defensive plays to open things up for the Offense and the Sooners may eventually pull clear for a very big win. If Charlie Brewer can't escape the pressure, I expect Oklahoma to have some short fields for Touchdowns and I will look for the home team to cover this line.
MY PICKS: Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 23.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange + 33.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils + 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
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