The final week of the regular season is being played in the 2020 College Football year before we head into the Championship Games.
It has been a tough season for many with games being cancelled and others being re-arranged, but we are nearing the end and many of the players will grow from what has been a testing experience.
I am hopeful that the 2021 season will be much more 'normal' with crowds likely to return in bigger numbers than we have seen in 2020 and the pandemic in much better control than it is currently.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Missouri Tigers Pick: Neither of these teams are going to be playing in the SEC Championship Game as they trail Florida in the SEC East, but the winning team in Week 15 may be pushing for a significant Bowl Game.
Both the Georgia Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers have winning records with the former at 6-2 and the latter at 5-3 and both teams have winning runs to extend.
Much of what happens in this game will be used by the two teams to build for the 2021 season when they will feel they can get closer to the Gators and perhaps even push past them. The Georgia Bulldogs will always have National Championship aspirations, while the Missouri Tigers have played in the SEC Championship Game since joining the Conference so there is not underestimating the direction in which the Bulldogs and Tigers could be heading.
The Covid-19 pandemic has made 2020 much more difficult to negotiate than even the usually tough College Football season. The lack of preparation time in the summer and not being able to ease your way into a season has meant some players have had teething issues in the regular season, but we are seeing improvements now.
Players opting out certainly did not help some of the top schools and that was something Georgia were not prepared for, but now JT Daniels is picking up vital experience which could set him on a very good path for 2021. The young Quarter Back has a big reputation around him and he has helped spark the Georgia Bulldogs Offensively, although this may be the toughest opponent Daniels has faced in the SEC.
He should be given some support from the running game as the Georgia Offensive Line has begun to dominate the trenches and that should at least open things up for Daniels to throw the ball down the field. However the Missouri Secondary has played really well and JT Daniels will be aware that the Georgia Offensive Line has not been as protective of him at Quarter Back as they have in opening rushing lanes.
The Tigers Defensive Line have been able to generate pressure on the Quarter Back and this may be the best way to disrupt the Georgia Offense which has been on something of a roll of late.
While the Bulldogs are likely going to have success running the ball, it may be more difficult for Missouri despite how well they have been playing. The Tigers have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground, but Georgia's Defensive Line have been dominant in the trenches and been able to clamp down on the run which will make things very difficult for the home team.
On the other hand the Bulldogs Secondary have struggled to slow down the pass and Connor Bazelak has been able to have plenty of success from the Missouri Quarter Back position. He has been well protected too and I think that is going to be the main reason the Tigers are able to hang with the improved Georgia Bulldogs in this Week 15 game.
Connor Bazelak has made the right decisions and I do think he can throw open some running lanes if the Bulldogs have to take away some of the players at the line of scrimmage to stop Missouri through the air. It should help provide some balance, although JT Daniels will have seen how much success the Arkansas Razorbacks had in throwing against the Tigers Secondary last week.
Both teams may be able to move the chains and so the points being offered to the home underdog looks pretty appealing here. The Tigers are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games against the Georgia Bulldogs too.
Missouri are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the home underdog and I will back them with the points here.
North Carolina Tar Heels @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The ACC Championship Game is going to be competed by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Clemson Tigers, but the next level down in the Conference is filled with the likes of the Miami Hurricanes and the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Hurricanes are 8-1 this season and have a sole loss to the Tigers on their record, while the Tar Heels have been a little more inconsistent and are at 7-3.
With that in mind the winning team will likely improve their standings when it comes to Bowl selections later this month and a rivalry should mean both teams have plenty of motivation behind them.
Miami might have been out of contention for some time when it comes to working their way into the Championship Game, but they have won five in a row and that will give them belief. They are playing well and even a Covid-19 outbreak has not been able to slow down the team who with improving health should have a much shorter list of absentees compared with Week 14 when they blew out the Duke Blue Devils.
There is plenty of balance to like about the Miami Hurricanes on the Offensive side of the ball and I think that is going to be key for them in moving the chains for much of the afternoon. D'Eriq King has been everything the Hurricanes have wanted at Quarter Back having gotten him in transferred from Houston and his dual-threat ability from the position has sparked the Hurricanes.
I am not sure the Hurricanes will rip off massive plays on the ground, but they can stay in front of the chains and that is very important for Miami. Being able to establish the run will just make it a little easier for the Offensive Line to give King time at Quarter Back to make his plays down the field whether he decides to tuck the ball and run or throw into the North Carolina Secondary.
There are some serious weapons that D'Eriq King can target and I do think he is going to have a strong game which will give Miami Hurricanes the points to win the game. The Quarter Back has taken care of the ball and I expect King to have a good showing which will put pressure on the North Carolina Tar Heels to keep up.
Revenge will be on the minds of the Miami Hurricanes who were upset by the North Carolina Tar Heels on the road last season, but Sam Howell is also plenty more experienced now. The Quarter Back has had a very good season for the Tar Heels and Sam Howell will be confident, but he is facing a Miami Hurricanes Defensive unit that have performed at a high level.
It may all come down to how well Sam Howell plays because the Hurricanes Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run. While the Tar Heels won't want to get away from the run and become predictable, I do think Miami can at least force Sam Howell into a couple of third and long spots which could see them turn the game in their favour.
I wouldn't want to underestimate Sam Howell, but he is playing behind a porous Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection. While the Tar Heels have not been the best in pass protection, the Hurricanes have been able to get a huge amount of pressure on opposition Quarter Backs and they might be able to rattle Howell into a couple of errant throws.
He will have to be aware of the turnovers that the Miami Secondary can create and I think motivation for revenge for last season will help the home team win a high scoring game. Home advantage has tended to be important in this rivalry with the last eight games seeing the home team go 7-1 against the spread and I do think that will be key here too.
North Carolina are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog and they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when playing a team with a winning record at home.
The Hurricanes are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the favourite and 7-3 against the spread in their last ten against a team with a winning record. In what should be an up and down game with both Offensive units moving the ball successfully, I think Miami will make a few more plays Defensively which helps them win and cover.
Houston Cougars @ Memphis Tigers Pick: Like many teams and Conferences in College Football there is going to be a disparity with number of games played and so the Bowl selection process is going to be a little more confusing than usual. In normal times aiming for six wins would at least make you eligible for selection, but some teams are not going to have played six games all season in what has been a difficult 2020.
Both of these teams have at least played six games as the 3-3 Houston Cougars get set to take on the 6-3 Memphis Tigers, although nothing has been plain-sailing for either. They have both missed out on the American Athletic Championship Game, but at least Memphis should be a little more game ready than their visitors who are playing for the first time in almost a month.
That was always going to be an issue with Covid-19 continuing to spread across the United States unchecked, but none of the players are going to want to use it as an excuses if they feel they are underperforming. It does feel like the game is going to be more important for Houston as they look to finish above 0.500 to boost their Bowl chances, but the Memphis Tigers have Senior players involved in what could be their last College game and that can't be underestimated either.
Memphis saw their three game winning run ended in a loss to the Tulane Green Wave in Week 14, but they were not favoured on the road and being a home underdog is a different kind of experience for many associated with this team. The Tigers have been used to winning and they will certainly feel they are playing well enough to avoid back to back defeats for the first time in 2020.
I am also expecting the Tigers to rally around Quarter Back Brady White who is looking to set a new record for passing yards in Memphis as he overcomes a record mark set by Danny Wimprine in the early years of this century. Brady White has led the team to a record number of wins from a starting Quarter Back in his time with Memphis and he will feel he can have a big game against a Houston Secondary which can give up some big plays.
It should be a relatively comfortable game for White who plays behind an Offensive Line that can protect him, but any Houston pass rush is also expected to be eased by the Tigers rushing attack. While Memphis haven't been the most productive team on the ground, they have done enough to believe they can hurt a Cougars Defensive Line which has given up some eye-watering numbers the last few times we saw them on the field.
They have had a month to fix some of those issues which should help, but I expect Memphis to have a good balance Offensively which should keep Houston on the back foot.
That will mean the Cougars need to turn to Clayton Tune to keep them moving forward on the scoreboard and the dual-threat Quarter Back is someone that can make life easier for the rest of the Offensive unit. I do feel Tune is more productive with his legs than his arms having thrown 11 Touchdown passes with 6 Interceptions, but the Memphis Defensive Line have really knuckled down at the line of scrimmage and pride themselves on trying to slow down the run.
It could be a key to the whole outcome of this game with the team winning that battle in the trenches likely going to be set up to have an overall success in the game.
The seasonal numbers suggest Clayton Tune will have his moments throwing the ball, but if Houston are struggling to run the ball efficiently he will have to deal with the Tigers pass rush and also a Secondary which have turned the ball over.
I have to say I do think Memphis are being given too many points here and they have covered the last five times these rivals have played one another.
The Tigers look like a team that may strike the better balance Offensively and the lack of game time has to mean Houston are a little rusty in this one.
Memphis have covered in the last four games they have been set as the home underdog and I am looking for that position to inspire them here. On the other side Houston are 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games as the road favourite and at the very least I expect the Tigers to be within touching distance of the upset at the end of the game which makes the points over a key number of 3 look pretty good.
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Baylor Bears Pick: At one point it looked like the Oklahoma State Cowboys were the best bet for the Big 12 Conference to earn a spot in the College Football PlayOff, but the team have dropped games to the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners as well as the TCU Horned Frogs. Now there is not only no concern about trying to earn their spot in the PlayOff, but the Cowboys have missed out on the Big 12 Championship Game too which will be contested by their rivals the Sooners and the Iowa State Cyclones.
At 6-3 for the season, Oklahoma State are going to be in line for a decent Bowl selection and winning this game is important to improve the status of that Bowl Game. Even with that in mind, Mike Gundy is far from impressed that his team have fallen from their 4-0 start to the season and I think the Head Coach is going to need to be picked up as much as the players.
They will end the regular season with a trip to the Baylor Bears who have played better than their 2-6 record may suggest. Last week they pushed the Oklahoma Sooners and the Baylor loss by 13 points is actually their largest margin of defeat for the season which underlines the competitive nature of this team.
I have to be a little concerned that the Bears put in as much effort as they did to fall short in their Week 14 defeat to the Oklahoma Sooners, especially as they have nothing to gain from this final game. They might be encouraged to play spoiler, and they are facing an Oklahoma State Offensive unit which struggled last week against the Horned Frogs as injuries have piled up on both sides of the ball.
The Cowboys may feel they can establish the run even in the absence of their top Back Chuba Hubbard and it is certainly going to be a key part of this game for Oklahoma State. If the Offensive Line can win the battle in the trenches it should make things more comfortable all around for the passing game as the Bears pass rush would likely be slowed down just long enough.
Throwing the ball against the Bears has not been easy in recent games and that will be encouraging to the home team, but they will have to find a way to at least try and slow things on the ground.
Stopping the run has been a problem for the Cowboys Defensive Line in recent weeks, but they might have gotten a break by going up against the Bears in Week 15. The Baylor Offensive Line has not played well at all in recent games with little room for the rushing Offense and porous pass protection of Charlie Brewer at Quarter Back.
Charlie Brewer can make some plays with his legs and scored a Touchdown on the ground last week, but he will be confident he can make some big time throws against the injury hit Cowboys Secondary. The key for the Quarter Back will be getting the time for his Receivers to complete their routes down the field, but that has not always been something Brewer has been blessed with and he has to make sure he is not pushing too hard which could lead to Interceptions when throwing under duress.
Baylor haven't had anything to play for in much of the 2020 season but have remained competitive, but I am not sure the Cowboys can manage to do the same amidst the disappointment of missing out on the Big 12 Championship Game. Add in the fact that injuries have hurt the Cowboys on both sides of the ball and I think Baylor can take advantage with Charlie Brewer making enough big throws to keep this one close.
The Bears are 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this rivalry.
Oklahoma State are 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five as the road favourite and they have not covered in their last five in Conference play. On the other side Baylor are 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen as the home underdog and I think they may be in receipt of enough points to stay within the number.
LSU Tigers @ Florida Gators Pick: An investigation is continuing by the NCAA to work out whether the LSU Tigers have been taking improper payments from their boosters that were passed onto the players. That investigation has seen the Tigers decide to get ahead of things and punish themselves and this week they asked to be withdrawn from Bowl consideration for one year.
At 3-5 the defending National Champions may not have been involved in a big Bowl Game anyway and this has been a really disappointing season for LSU who were last seen being blown out by the Alabama Crimson Tide at home in Week 14. The record has seen a number of players withdraw from being considered for the last two weeks of the regular season as their personal attention shifts to getting into perfect shape for the NFL Combine and Draft coming up in the months ahead.
Last week they were blown out by the SEC West representative in the Championship Game and the Tigers don't have it much easier in Week 15 as they prepare to take on the SEC East representatives. The Florida Gators have won their Division and have an 8-1 record this season, bu the defeat to the Texas A&M Aggies may mean they will only be considered for the College Football PlayOff if they win this game and the Championship Game next week.
Style points could be important for the Gators who will know the Aggies are a potential rival for the College Football PlayOff spot if they finish their own season strongly having only been beaten by the Crimson Tide. That should keep Florida focused as they look to avoid an upset that will likely see them out of the PlayOff even if they were to upset Alabama next week.
Kyle Trask leads the Florida Gators and he has thrown 38 Touchdown passes with just 3 Interceptions this season. There was a little bit of irritation from Head Coach Dan Mullen that Florida were not able to take better advantage of their field position in the tighter than expected win over the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 14, but Trask shouldn't have too many problems moving the chains in this one and especially if the Tigers continue to play the pass as they have been.
It has been on the Quarter Back because the Gators have not really established the run in recent games as they would have liked. However it does feel like the Florida Offensive Line should have more success on the ground against the LSU Defensive Line which has given up 177 yards per game on the ground across their last three starts.
Moving the ball in third and manageable spots should make life very comfortable for Kyle Trask who should be able to attack a young Secondary that have made some big mistakes. His Offensive Line have been very good at protecting Trask and giving him time and the Tigers have had a limited pass rush in recent games which should mean Florida have a chance to produce a big Offensive game to offer encouragement ahead of the SEC Championship Game.
Injuries and withdrawals have also hurt the LSU Tigers on the Offensive side of the ball and I don't think it will be much different in Week 15 against an improving Florida Defensive unit. The Gators Defensive Line have been very good at clamping down on the run in their last three games and the Tigers have not been able to stay with the run as they have fallen into holes on the scoreboard.
Even then, LSU have tried to get things going for their Running Backs without any real success and that will mean whoever lines up at Quarter Back could be under pressure. No matter who it is, inexperience could be a problem for the Tigers who will be struggle in pass protection against the fierce Florida pass rush that has been generated.
The Secondary have given up one or two big plays and that has allowed teams to put up some points, but Florida will believe making LSU one-dimensional should allow their Defensive Line to take over this game. That could lead to Quarter Back mistakes and Florida could be in line for a big win over LSU as Alabama managed in Week 14.
It is not a big surprise that LSU have some very strong trends behind them considering how well this team was playing last year and they have been a strong underdog to back. However they didn't compete with Alabama at all last week and couldn't stop them at all and I have a feeling something similar may occur on Saturday.
Florida have a 4-1-1 record against the spread in their last six games as the home favourite and I will back them to go into the SEC Championship Game with some real belief and momentum thanks to a big win here.
MY PICKS: Missouri Tigers + 14 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Memphis Tigers + 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 23.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
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