Week 13 of the NFL season is going to be played between Sunday and Tuesday this week as the League tries to manage the Covid-19 outbreaks that were inevitable.
I have the Sunday selections set to go, but will add any Picks from Monday and Tuesday here.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: If the season was to come to an end today, the 9-2 New Orleans Saints would be the team given the Bye in the Wild Card Round of the NFL PlayOffs courtesy of the top Seed in the NFC. All roads having to go through the Super Dome through to the Super Bowl would give the Saints a real advantage, but their Divisional rivals would like nothing more than to play spoiler.
It is the second time in three weeks that the Saints and the 4-7 Atlanta Falcons will be meeting having seen New Orleans win comfortably at home in Week 11. However it was the first time this season that Taysom Hill would have started at Quarter Back and you do have to wonder if the Falcons had been preparing for Jameis Winston rather than Hill after Drew Brees was confirmed to miss some time at Quarter Back.
That may have contributed to the defeat the first time these teams met, but Atlanta should feel more suitably prepared for this home game as Hill makes a second road start in succession. Taysom Hill struggled last week at the Denver Broncos, but he may feel there is more room to have success in this one although an improving Atlanta Defensive unit has to be given the respect they deserve.
The match up may be a good one for Taysom Hill because the Atlanta Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run as they would have liked, even though they restricted the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12. This Saints team look to have an Offensive Line opening more holes than the Raiders and both Alvin Kamara and Letavius Murray look healthier than Josh Jacobs, while Hill is more than capable of making some big plays with his legs.
Taysom Hill has to show a bit more consistency passing the ball if the Saints are going to keep the chains moving, but he could face some real pressure from the Atlanta pass rush when he does drop back. While there are some holes in the Secondary which can be exploited, Hill needs to make sure his team remain in front of the chains to give himself as easy a day as possible.
Atlanta's bigger challenge may not be slowing down the New Orleans Saints, but finding enough Offensive firepower of their own to keep the ball moving. Julio Jones is set to be back which is a huge boost for Matt Ryan and the entire passing game, but the Saints have been very strong Defensively in recent showings and did restrict Atlanta to 9 points two weeks ago.
The New Orleans Defensive Line have been very stout against the run all season and they have also been very good when it comes to pinning back the ears and bringing down the Quarter Back. That is a major problem for Atlanta who can't expect Todd Gurley to get on track which means time in the pocket is going to be an issue for Matt Ryan at Quarter Back.
I do think Ryan is good enough to make some plays down the field and someone like Julio Jones is a match up problem for any Secondary when at his best. It does feel like Jones won't be at his healthiest though and this Saints team have been able to create turnovers which could be something Ryan struggles to avoid as he throws with pressure in and around him.
New Orleans have been the dominant team in this Divisional rivalry of late and they should be plenty motivated to edge a little closer to the top Seed in the NFC.
Of course Atlanta would love to play spoiler, and they are 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen games as the home underdog, but New Orleans have won on their last two visits here.
The Saints are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the road favourite and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six against Divisional rivals. While the spread is perhaps a touch higher than I would have liked, I do think the Saints can win this one on the road and complete the sweep of the Falcons with some late plays from the Defensive unit edging the game in their favour.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Pick: A surprising season continues in a positive manner for the 7-4 Miami Dolphins and they look good for a PlayOff spot, although they can't afford to overlook opponents like this one. While their own rookie Quarter Back could be missing in Week 13, Miami still should have a lot of motivation compared with the 2-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals who have also lost a first year starter at Quarter Back.
The difference between these teams is that if Tua Tagovailoa is not able to go, the Dolphins can fall back on Ryan Fitzpatrick who has really been an inspirational player and man for the entire organisation over the last eighteen months. On the other side the Bengals have lost Joe Burrow until next season, but their drop off is significant as they turn to Brandon Allen for a second game in a row.
A late Touchdown helped the Bengals cover last week against the New York Giants, but Allen struggled at Quarter Back and he won't be facing a Miami Defensive unit that has given up a lot of big plays in the past. The Miami Secondary is the strength of the team, but Cincinnati are going to have issues establishing the run as they have continued to struggle without Joe Mixon.
Giovani Bernard has not really been able to get any consistency going on the ground and I am not sure he will take advantage of the fact that Miami have given up some solid plays on the ground. And it will be a big problem for the Bengals if they fall a couple of scores behind and then have to lean on Brandon Allen to try and lead them back while throwing against a dangerous pair of Defensive Backs.
Brandon Allen is not protected that well and Cincinnati have to be aware of the pass rush Miami have been able to generate and how that has led to some key turnovers or Defensive scores that have pushed the team forward.
At the moment we don't know who will be starting for Miami, but whoever it is has to be feeling pretty good about their chances of throwing the ball down the field with success. The Dolphins are hoping to have a couple of the Running Backs returning to action, but the Bengals Defensive Line have not played badly and it will be up to Fitzpatrick or Tagovailoa to take advantage of the Secondary with their arm,
The Miami Offensive Line has not been as solid as they would like in pass protection, but some of that is down to the Quarter Backs being a little indecisive in the pocket. In this game the Bengals are unlikely to have the players to really get after either Fitzpatrick or Tagovailoa and that should see them find the time to get the ball out to DeVante Parker who has been improving as a Receiver week after week.
Cincinnati have been a good team to back at the window and that has to be respected, but Miami are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine as the favourite. The Dolphins are also 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite and I think a Defensive/Special Teams play or two will also aid Miami in covering what is a very big spread on paper.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Both of these teams head into Week 13 of the NFL season with an 8-3 record, but the Tennessee Titans are on course to win the AFC South which would mean hosting at least one PlayOff Game in January. The Cleveland Browns will be very pleased with their record which has them in pole position to earn a Wild Card spot, but they are 3 games behind the AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers and it is all about clinching one of the extra berths in the PlayOffs for them.
With that in mind both teams will recognise the importance of this one despite having Divisional Games on deck.
The Tennessee Titans have to be feeling really good about themselves as they get to return home following road wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts. The latter win gives the Titans a single game lead in their Division over the Colts, but the Titans are also looking on course to win the tie-breaker.
Mike Vrabel is not someone who will be thinking too far ahead though and he will be making sure his team are focused on this game which may still be a tie-breaker for a Wild Card spot if the Titans don't win the Division. He will be stressing that to his team and I do think the Titans will match up well with the injury hit Cleveland Browns who have overachieved without really convincing that they are a deserving eight win team.
The Titans will not be hard to work out Offensively as everything is based on establishing the run- Derrick Henry continues to churn out some huge numbers and he looks to be going up against a Cleveland Defensive Line which has shown some wear and tear and struggled to stop the run in recent games.
If you have issues slowing down the likes of Philadelphia and Jacksonville, I am not sure you can be very confident that you can get the better of the Tennessee Titans. Their big Running Back has seemingly gotten stronger week after week in each NFL season and Derrick Henry could rip off some huge gains here to put the Titans in front of the chains.
That will only open things up for Ryan Tannehill who will be throwing into a banged up Cleveland Secondary and I do think the Quarter Back will be a threat with play-action likely to be a key for him. Myles Garrett is back for Cleveland to give their pass rush a boost, but it can be slowed down as the Browns sell out to stop Henry and so I expect Ryan Tannehill to find some time to make some big plays down the field.
I am expecting Tennessee to have success moving the ball on the ground, and it is the same kind of approach that Cleveland will take in this game. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have offered the Browns a serious Running Back tandem, and I do think both are very capable of having big games even if the Titans Defensive Line have just stiffened up on the ground game.
Stopping Chubb and Hunt completely is not going to happen, but Tennessee's Defensive Line may at least put them in a couple of third and long spots which will shift a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield at Quarter Back. In recent weeks it has felt like Cleveland have been winning games in spite of Mayfield's play and I do think the Browns may have issues if their two Running Backs are not able to establish consistency on the ground.
Baker Mayfield may look for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the passing game and the Titans Secondary is also banged up so he may be able to have one of his better games at Quarter Back. Jarvis Landry will be a big target and the Titans don't have the best pass rush so there should be time for Mayfield too, but he has not shown the kind of consistency that suggests he can keep up with a Tennessee team that may control the clock and have a better balance Offensively than Cleveland can conjure up.
Cleveland are 1-10 against the spread in their last eleven road games and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog. I do have to accept that Tennessee are not the best favourite to get behind, but the Browns have tended to beat the teams they should and not those they shouldn't and I expect that to be the case in Week 13 as Tennessee make the big plays to pull away for the cover.
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: It sounds like Daniel Jones has escaped a major injury, but it would still be a surprise if the Quarter Back is risked for the New York Giants in Week 13. In usual circumstances, a 4-7 team would really take no risks at all with their potential franchise Quarter Back, but Daniel Jones and the New York Giants are stunningly leading the NFC East and so every game will matter to them as they look to earn a surprising spot in the PlayOffs.
The feeling is that Jones will miss out this week which means the Giants will turn to Colt McCoy against the 8-3 Seattle Seahawks who lead the NFC West and remain one of the leading contenders in the NFC to represent the Conference in the Super Bowl. A win on the road at Philadelphia means the Seahawks are still chasing down the New Orleans Saints for the top Seed in the NFC, while the Defensive unit are picking up some key players returning from injury and showing improvement on the field.
A few weeks ago even a backup like McCoy would feel he could have a decent showing against the Seahawks, but the challenge is much greater for him now. Key trades strengthened the Seattle Defensive Line, but the injuries have also begun to clear up in the Secondary which has seen the team come on leaps and bounds from the statistics they were showing that had Seattle on pace to be a historically bad Defense.
There is some talent on the New York roster, but the Giants may struggle to really spark in this one on the Offensive side of the ball. Colt McCoy can't really rely on the running game with the improvement I have mentioned on the Seattle Defensive Line, while I don't think the Quarter Back is going to be given a lot of time to allow plays to develop further up the field when playing behind this Offensive Line.
The Giants have not protected Daniel Jones very well and Colt McCoy can't expect much better against a fierce Seattle pass rush that have managed to get to Quarter Backs.
Colt McCoy should be able to make a couple of nice throws and he has Receivers who will stand up for him, but I think this is a tough spot for the backup. With Seattle showing improvement, the Giants are going to have to lean on their own Defensive unit to try and slow down what has been an inconsistent Seattle Offense in recent weeks.
We have seen Russell Wilson at his best and worst at times in recent weeks, but DK Metcalf seems to be developing into one of the best Receivers in the NFL and is coming off another huge showing in Philadelphia. Russell Wilson has not been helped by an Offensive Line which has not given him time to stand upright, and he will be facing a solid New York pass rush that has been getting to the Quarter Back quickly enough to protect their own Secondary.
I still don't know how you stop Metcalf who is just a huge body with speed and so I would anticipate Russell Wilson having one of his better days. Aiding him will be the running game as both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde should be able to rip off some big gains against the struggling Giants Defensive Line, while Russell Wilson himself is capable of pulling the ball down and moving the chains with his legs.
If Daniel Jones was playing I do think the game would be closer, but with Colt McCoy in the backfield I am not sure the Giants will be able to score enough points to stay with Seattle on the road.
The Giants have covered the last six times they have been set as the underdog, but the favourite is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven between these teams.
Seattle are a solid 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite and I do think they can make enough plays on both sides of the ball to eventually pull clear and surpass this spread.
Washington Football Team @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Like many Leagues in North America, the NFL has been forced to make schedule changes and the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to remain unbeaten through a difficult time.
Their Week 12 game against the Baltimore Ravens was supposed to be played on Thanksgiving Day, but was delayed almost an entire week which means the Steelers are playing on a short turnaround in Week 13. The NFL have tried to help by pushing this game back from Sunday to Monday, but the 11-0 Steelers will be challenged as injuries have piled up for a team that effectively has not had a Bye Week in 2020.
With that in mind it is very, very important for the Steelers to try and finish with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC which will mean being the only team given a Bye in the new look Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. Despite being the only unbeaten team in the NFL, the Steelers are only just edging out the Kansas City Chiefs for the top Seed and so it is important for Pittsburgh to knuckle down and battle through the difficulties.
While they are on a short rest, the Washington Football Team are back in action for the first time in almost two weeks having crushed the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. That moved Washington to 4-7 for the season, although they are trailing the New York Giants in the NFC East after the Giants managed to upset the Seattle Seahawks on the road.
Since Alex Smith took over at Quarter Back, Washington have been playing with more confidence although they have not played too many teams of the level of Pittsburgh in recent weeks. They are 3-3 in their last six games, but Washington have played the Giants twice, the Cowboys twice, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Detroit Lions in that time.
That is not exactly the who's who of the NFL and now they are playing a Defensive unit which has been amongst the very best in the League. However the Steelers have been hurt by the loss of Bud Dupree who suffered a bad ACL injury at the end of the win over the Ravens and will just lessen the threat of the pass rush which Pittsburgh have generated all season.
Alex Smith could lean on Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic to try and keep the Football Team in front of the chains- in recent games the Steelers Defensive Line have given up some yards on the ground, but that will only be a relevant play for Washington as long as they are competitive. It will at least give the Quarter Back a chance, although this Pittsburgh Secondary have been playing at a high level and Smith has to be aware of the turnovers they are able to create.
Even without Bud Dupree I would expect the Steelers pass rush to get the better of the Washington Offensive Line which has not been very good when it comes to pass protection. That may increase the opportunities for turnovers, even though the Head Coach will be demanding more from his team.
Mike Tomlin wasn't completely satisfied with the performance level of his Defensive team, but he would have likely been more frustrated with the Special Teams and the Offense which struggled to see off the short-handed Baltimore Ravens.
I expect a better all around performance from Pittsburgh even though Ben Roethlisberger is a little banged up and James Connor is likely going to miss out again. Benny Snell did well enough in the absence of Connor and I would expect Big Ben to utilise all of his Receiving threats in a much more effective way than he did against the Ravens last week.
It may all come down to Roethlisberger and the passing game because there have been one or two struggles to get the ground game on track. The Washington Defensive Line is the strength of the Football Team and they have been stout against the run in recent games too, although once again you do have to consider the level of opponent they have been going up against.
I do feel the Secondary is perhaps putting up better numbers than they should be because they have not faced too many high-powered Offenses and with that in mind I am expecting a solid day from Pittsburgh and the passing game. There are too many threats for the Football Team to cover up completely and the Steelers should be able to put some points up which may be too much for the Alex Smith led Washington Offense to keep up with.
The spot is not ideal for Pittsburgh which has to be a worry and they were lethargic in their win over Baltimore, although I expect that performance to mean a much better one all around in this game. They didn't cover as a favourite thanks to a late Touchdown given up, but the Steelers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the home favourite.
My feeling is that Pittsburgh will get back to the high-scoring team we have gotten used to seeing in 2020 and that may be too much for Washington to compete with here.
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: In recent seasons we have become accustomed to the NFL scheduling some neutral field regular season games in order to build the League up even further. Covid-19 put an end to that in 2020, but then this game had to be moved as the San Francisco authorities made it clear a surge in the disease would mean all events had to be cancelled.
The NFL doesn't want to lose any regular season games and they have managed to avoid that through twelve weeks of 2020- the decision was thus made that the 49ers would host their next two home games in Arizona and hopefully be able to return back to San Francisco when they are next due to play there on Boxing Day.
This is a site that may not bring back too many good memories for the Buffalo Bills who lost to the Arizona Cardinals on a last second Hail Mary last month. The Bills bounced back to move to 8-3 for the season when they beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, but they will be in a tie at the top of the AFC East if they were to lose this game after the Miami Dolphins moved their record to 8-4 on Sunday.
Buffalo are perhaps in a bad spot with their next game being against the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Bills can't overlook the healthier San Francisco 49ers especially being in the midst of a Divisional battle. The 49ers are at 5-6, but the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12 has just given them a lift in their bid to return to the PlayOffs and this week could not have gone much better for them to this point.
Losses for the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals means the 49ers will be firmly back in the PlayOff picture with a win and the importance of his game will not be lost on either team despite it being a non-Conference one.
Nick Mullens is still playing in place of Jimmy Garoppolo and that is an issue at Quarter Back, but Mullens is playing well enough to keep the 49ers in front of the chains. George Kittle is a big miss at Tight End too, but Mullens should be able to have the majority of his other big name Receivers back for this game and that will give him a real chance to have some success.
In recent games the 49ers have not been able to build up a big running threat to ease the pressure on their Quarter Back, but Raheem Mostert has returned and it should mean a stronger end to the regular season for San Francisco. However this may not be the game in which the running game gets back on track with Buffalo's Defensive Line being one of the better ones in the NFL.
Kyle Shanahan is a strong Offensive mind that will employ screens in place of the rush and Nick Mullens should have some nice drives against this Buffalo Secondary which has given up more big plays than we have been used to in the Sean McDermott era. The Bills pass rush could cause some problems for the 49ers, while the Secondary have been able to turn the ball over and that could be an issue for Mullens who has made one or two mistakes when throwing.
Running the ball may be a problem for the Buffalo Bills too, although they have leaned on Josh Allen a lot more this season as the Quarter Back has developed. There have been times Allen looks to have made a permanent move to the next level, but this is a tough Secondary to play against and the Offensive Line have not always been able to protect their Quarter Back.
Josh Allen will have to be aware of where Richard Sherman is at all times, but he does have some solid Receiving options and he can make some plays with his legs to make sure Buffalo are in front of the chains. That will open things up down the field and I think he can out-duel Nick Mullens while helping Buffalo to an important win.
The Bills have a 6-1-2 record in their last nine games as the road underdog, although this is technically not a road game. San Francisco have a 9-21-1 record in their last thirty-one games as the favourite and I think Josh Allen will be able to lead his team to one or two more drives than Nick Mullens which lead to a narrow win and keeping control of their place in the AFC PlayOff picture.
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Las Vegas Raiders - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New England Patriots + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
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