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Saturday 19 December 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (December 19-21)

A power cut in the area has meant I have not been able to write out as full a post as I might have been considering.

Add in the short turn between the two rounds of Premier League fixtures and this is a week in which there is not much thinking time for those of us playing the Fantasy Football game, although I am coming off a decent week.

More on that down the page.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: There may be one or two fatigued players in both the Crystal Palace and Liverpool camps after putting in big shifts on Wednesday night.

Both were rewarded for the efforts which should be a boost for the players, but this is another tough game.

On paper you would have Liverpool as favourites having won on their last 6 visits to this part of South London and they will be coming off the late winner over Tottenham Hotspur to give the team a shot of confidence in the arm. They are unbeaten in 6 overall and in their last 7 away games in all competitions, while Crystal Palace will be missing the fans that did help drag them back into the game with Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday.

However it is hard to ignore the fact that Liverpool are far from firing on all cylinders at the moment and they were perhaps a little fortunate to win on Wednesday. Defensively they are still giving up some big chances and they have drawn their last 4 away games by the same 1-1 scoreline.

Take away the draw with Manchester City and those have come at Brighton and Fulham in the Premier League and at Midtjylland in the Champions League and it would not be harsh to say all four of those home teams arguably deserved to win.

Losing Christian Benteke is a blow for Crystal Palace, but they have pace in the final third and will challenge this Liverpool team. The counter attack could be dangerous and Crystal Palace have outperformed the last three Premier League opponents since losing to Newcastle United.

Roy Hodgson should have Crystal Palace organised and hard to beat and they should create one or two good chances to hurt Liverpool.

The recent head to head is a concern, but I would not be massively surprised if Crystal Palace can get a result here. Liverpool are playing like Champions at home, but they have not been at their very best on their travels and this is not a team scoring or creating a high amount of chances at the moment.

If there is any tiredness in the Liverpool squad, Crystal Palace have the skilful players and the pace to hurt them and I will be looking for the home team to surprise some.


Southampton v Manchester City Pick: How many would have predicted Southampton would be higher than Manchester City in the Premier League table when this fixture was going to be played after the schedule was released? Just days before Christmas that is where the two clubs find themselves and it says quite a bit about both.

While Southampton are clearly overachieving and producing some big results, Manchester City are underachieving as they sit in mid-table and 8 points behind the leaders.

Both earned 1-1 draws during the week, but there is no doubt that that result would have been more acceptable to Southampton at kick off than Manchester City.

On first glance you do have to feel that Manchester City are plenty short to win here and they are playing a Southampton team who are dangerous from set pieces. That has to be a big concern for Pep Guardiola, but his team have largely defended well since the 2-5 home loss to Leicester City and they will note that Southampton have not been creating a hatful of chances of late.

Southampton do find a way to score goals though and with Danny Ings, Che Adams, James Ward-Prowse and Theo Walcott all showing good form the home team are going to be dangerous.

However not many teams have created a lot of big opportunities against Manchester City and I do think that will encourage the visitors. A lack of clinical edge has been costly for Manchester City, but they have earned 5 clean sheets in their last 6 away games in all competitions, while West Brom became the first team since mid-November to score against them.

Manchester City have not been scoring a lot of goals themselves as they have perhaps focused on earning the balance between attack and defence, although they do create more chances than Southampton who look to be overachieving in the final third.

Goals have tended to flow when these two teams have met of late, but that has largely been the case at the Etihad Stadium. At St Mary's 3 of the last 4 have seen one of the teams fail to find the back of the net and that looks a pretty big price this weekend.

The home team have been keeping plenty of clean sheets and the same can be said for Manchester City so a tight game could be in the offing here. One goal may be enough to steal away the points and I do think both managers will be respectable of the other to not ask their team to take too many unnecessary risks here.


Everton v Arsenal Pick: There can't have been many times over the years that Arsenal would have been pleased to end a home game with Southampton having earned a single point. Another sending off didn't help their cause, but Mikel Arteta will also just be pleased to see Arsenal end a miserable run of form.

The manager will still need a win to ease the pressure which has been building for some time as Arsenal have slipped back towards the relegation zone.

No one will really believe that Arsenal are going to be in a relegation battle, but that doesn't mean Mikel Arteta can continue to see his side struggle to earn results.

Now they have to visit one of the few Football grounds that are still allowed to have at least 2000 fans in attendance and Everton have been flying over the last week. Wins over Chelsea and Leicester City will have given the players confidence, but the clean sheets in both wins will only further that belief and Everton will be expecting to win a game like this one.

They have been playing some strong attacking football even with the injuries they are dealing with and I do think that will be something we see on Saturday afternoon. The onus is on Everton, but they have been creating some strong chances in recent games and could have easily beaten Burnley which would have meant having 4 wins from the last 5 Premier League games.

If they had been on that kind of run I would have expected Everton to be a stronger price than what we see, but I can't ignore how poorly Arsenal have been playing. Defensively they have looked vulnerable, but Mikel Arteta's system has not created a lot of chances either and I think Everton will edge to the three points.


Newcastle United v Fulham Pick: Two teams in the bottom six of the current Premier League table meet on Saturday night, although Newcastle United will be happy with the 17 points they have earned compared with the 9 earned by Fulham.

Being at home should be an advantage for Newcastle United, but they have been as inconsistent here as anywhere so far this season.

Simply put you can't really know for sure which Newcastle United team will turn up from game to game.

One thing I do know is that they can't be as poor as they were at Leeds United during the week and I expect a reaction from them. The Magpies have not won consecutive home games in the Premier League since December 2019 though and last time out they did manage to just about edge past West Brom here.

They are favourites to do the same against Fulham, but the visitors are much improved in recent games. Scott Parker has some pace to use in the wide areas and up front and it has led to a number of chances being created, although Fulham have not had the clinical touch the manager would have liked to have seen.

With the defensive issues that Newcastle United have had, I do think Fulham can create chances here. They didn't do a lot of attacking at Manchester City, but Fulham have created chances at Sheffield United and West Ham United before cracking through for a first away win at Leicester City.

I expect they will create chances here, but Fulham have yet to be truly secure at the back and that is especially away from home. Newcastle United have scored in 4 of their 6 home games this season, and they have conceded in all of those games, while Fulham have not had an away clean sheet in the League this season.

The last time here it ended goalless and a draw can't be ruled out. However I expect both Newcastle United and Fulham to score at least once in this fixture in what could be a better affair in reality than some may feel it will be on paper.


Brighton v Sheffield United Pick: The results just can't be ignored, but Chris Wilder is still full of belief that he can turn things around for Sheffield United.

He was much happier with the battling display his team produced in their 2-3 home loss to Manchester United on Thursday, but another defeat leaves The Blades in a desperate position.

At this moment not many teams will be expected to drop points to Sheffield United, but I can't have Brighton as a odds on favourite considering they have failed to beat Burnley and West Brom in that spot at the Amex Stadium this season. The home team do feel like they are stronger in the final third, but Brighton have struggled for consistency when it comes to taking those chances and they are plenty short here.

You can't really trust Sheffield United at either end of the pitch though and so I will just take a watching brief here.


Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City Pick: This may be a clash between two of the current top four, but the erratic form of Leicester City makes it hard to see them in that light. Another home loss during the week has once again dented the momentum Leicester City had picked up and they do look a team that is hard to trust.

Playing away from home should suit Leicester City who have some quality and pace on the counter attack which makes them very effective on their travels. That has already led to a big win at Manchester City and Leicester City will believe they can snap their poor run against this opponent too.

However it isn't too difficult to predict how Leicester City are going to want to get after Tottenham Hotspur and I expect Jose Mourinho to set up to make sure those counter attack situations are not very frequent in the match.

The manager will also be looking to do the same against Brendan Rodgers' system and so far Tottenham Hotspur have largely been clinical enough to make it work. In the last couple of games they have been creating more chances though which is encouraging and Tottenham Hotspur have enjoyed playing in this Stadium where they have won 6 in a row and been scoring a lot of goals.

They've been clinical with the chances but with Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane in their current form there is little to believe it will change.

And as good as Leicester City were in beating Manchester City, they did need three Penalties that day and also had a naive defensive performance to exploit. I just don't think Tottenham Hotspur will be as generous and Leicester City were comfortably dismissed in their defeat at Anfield last month.

The first goal is likely to be huge in this, but I think Tottenham Hotspur have shown better all around form than Leicester City and they can bounce back from the defeats both suffered during the week.


Manchester United v Leeds United Pick: This is a huge game on Sunday afternoon in the Premier League as two old rivals finally meet in a League fixture for the first time in over sixteen years.

There is never going to be any love between Manchester United and Leeds United, but the atmosphere will not be the same without the fans. Last weekend a methodical and slow Manchester derby was allowed to drift without any encouragement from the stands, but I don't think Marcelo Bielsa will allow this fixture to be anything but an open one.

Leeds United have been a real boost to the Premier League thanks to their manager and the style of football he insists they play. This is a team who have come up from the Championship though and that means some of the team is perhaps not ready to really compete at this level and maybe some would argue that the manager needs to be more pragmatic with his requirements than he has been.

I don't think Bielsa will ever change to please others though and it has meant Leeds United have created chances in every game they have played. Unfortunately for them, it has also meant Leeds United have been ripe for the counter attack and the likes of Leicester City and Crystal Palace have exposed spaces left behind.

If Manchester United's display on Thursday night is anything to go by, this is a team capable of exploiting gaps too.

Marcus Rashford, Paul Pogba, Bruno Fernandes, Mason Greenwood and Anthony Martial impressed as an attacking unit in the 2-3 win at Sheffield United and they should have spaces to attack here. Under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer Manchester United have been very good going forward on the counter attack when teams overcommit and I think they are going to be able to take advantage of Leeds United.

In 4 of 13 League games played this season, Leeds United have conceded at least three times and that has to be a worry. Liverpool, Leicester City and Chelsea are some of the leading teams who were able to hit that number and I do think Manchester United have some momentum behind them with quiet talk that a Premier League title challenge may be within their grasp.

Games like this will tell us plenty about their title chances, but I think the players will be appreciative of the kind of space Leeds United will leave them. I expect the visitors to cause problems for the Manchester United backline too, but my feeling is that the home team will be able to come through a high-scoring game with another three points on the board.


West Brom v Aston Villa Pick: Sam Allardyce is finally back in the Premier League as West Brom turn to the manager who has regularly gotten clubs out of the bottom three in the Division.

It has been a while since we have seen him, but Allardyce takes over as West Brom manager from Slaven Bilic despite the fact they earned a 1-1 draw at Manchester City during the week. He should be given some funds to turn the fortunes around in January, but before that Sam Allardyce has to get the best out of his current squad with plenty of football to be played before the transfer window opens.

Aston Villa will have been frustrated with their goalless draw with Burnley on Thursday, but it was poor finishing which cost them. The side created a lot of good chances, hit the woodwork multiple times, but were also guilty of failing to hit the target on enough occasions.

They have been better away from home, but Aston Villa look a short price to win here.

A boost of a new voice in the dressing room could inspire the home team, but this looks like a derby game that could go any number of ways.


Burnley v Wolves Pick: If you were going to pick the Premier League that is most likely to finish goalless this weekend I am sure a large number of people would pick this fixture as being the one.

Both Burnley and Wolves have had some solid results over the last week, but neither is the most productive in front of goal.

That has to mean we are in line to see a tight, competitive fixture where the two defences are likely to be on top and I think the layers have gotten on top of this match. Backing there being few goals is a short price and I do think you can make a case for all three results.

Like a couple of other fixtures, this one might actually give us better indications of where these two teams are ahead of the very busy Christmas week and it is one where I will not be expecting a lot of big chances for either team.

Wolves are off a big win over Chelsea which will have given the team confidence, but they are erratic at the moment and the absence of Raul Jimenez is a blow.

It would be no surprise if a single goal wins this one.


Chelsea v West Ham United Pick: I have to admit I have been very impressed with the level that West Ham United have largely produced this season and they are a team who have given the best teams a lot of problems.

Both Liverpool and Manchester United had to come from behind to beat them, while West Ham United led Manchester City before being pegged back for a draw. They have also visited Tottenham Hotspur and recovered from 3-0 down to earn a draw and this is a team who have pace in the final third and produce a real threat from every set piece they earn around the opposition box.

It is going to be an area that David Moyes will be looking for his team to exploit, but defensively there are still some vulnerabilities in this West Ham United team. While those performances I have mentioned deserve respect, teams have been able to create some good chances in front of goal against them and Crystal Palace had the better of the opportunities in the 1-1 draw at the London Stadium on Wednesday.

Whether Chelsea are in the right frame of mind to take advantage has to be the question as they also have to deal with the mental hurdle of having lost both League games to West Ham United last season.

The consecutive losses to Everton and Wolves has just taken away some of the momentum Chelsea seemingly had built up and they have only won 1 of their last 3 at Stamford Bridge. However this is a team with quality in the attacking areas and Frank Lampard will feel his side were a little unlucky not to have more earned more points than they did in visits to Everton and Wolves.

It will be important to make a good start to this fixture to just ease any tension the players may be feeling. Chelsea are missing some key attacking players and there are one or two players who are not in the kind of form Frank Lampard would have been hoping to see going into the busy Christmas period.

In saying that I do think Chelsea create enough to believe they can do the same against this West Ham United defence.

It would not be a massive surprise if West Ham United play their part in this one especially with their recent head to head meaning they have only lost 1 of their last 6 against this London rival. I am just not convinced The Hammers can defend well enough to contain a Chelsea team who had been scoring plenty of goals here and I think the home side will be able to produce enough in the final third to cover the Handicap.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace + 1.25 Asian Handicap
Southampton-Manchester City Both Teams to Score- NO
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United-Fulham Both Teams to Score
Tottenham Hotspur - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester United & Over 1.5 Total Goals
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 14
Last week I was fortunate enough to bring in Marcus Rashford who was handed the Captaincy to give my team the best possible week, although Ollie Watkins continues to frustrate me.

With the Blank GameWeek and Double GameWeek announced for early January there are a couple of ways to approach it, but the power cut I mentioned at the top of the page means I am going to have more thoughts about that in the next Weekend thread ahead of GameWeek 15.

I do have one transfer to use this weekend and I am considering upgrading my second goalkeeper while keeping Alex McCarthy who does have a good looking Double GameWeek coming up. However Southampton have some difficult games before that and I do think it is possible to bring in someone like Nick Pope or Aaron Ramsdale who look to have the best games coming up over the next few weeks.

The latter may be the choice for those who don't want to use their Free Hit Chip to cover the Blank GameWeek coming up as Sheffield United won't be receiving a free week, but it is hard to trust Sheffield United on their current form. They also are getting a lot of saves out of Aaron Ramsdale at the moment which limits his appeal.

I will have a think right up until the Saturday deadline as I look to make sure my team is ready to keep the positive vibes going after cracking at least 57 points in four GWs in a row.

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