I am doing the same this year, although we don't have the same amount of Bowl Games as usual- at least this way the Bowl thread is not overloaded.
There are some big games to come, but it is going to be difficult to really nail down the motivation of teams with so many withdrawing from being selected and players also deciding, once again, that they would rather prepare for the NFL Draft than play in a Bowl Game.
This thread will not cover the College Football PlayOffs, but those should be the opening picks from the Part 2 thread which should be ready to go next week.
North Texas Mean Green vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Pick: There hasn't been a lot of time between the Bowl Games announcement and the first of the games to be played, but both the Appalachian State Mountaineers and the North Texas Mean Green will be happy to be playing in the post-season. While some teams have decided they don't wish to play in the post-season, these two teams will be happy to be here.
The Mountaineers are a big favourite having finished the season with a 8-3 record compared with the Mean Green who are below 0.500 at 4-5.
There is also an additional factor that North Texas will be missing their best Receiver Jaelon Darden and this is going to make it very difficult for the underdog to keep up with the Mountaineers. Even with Darden it would have been a challenge for the Mean Green to throw the ball against the Mountaineers Secondary which has been very strong defending the pass all season.
I do think North Texas could have some success running the ball, but there will be times when they are stuck in third and long spots and without their star Receiver I do think there will be an inconsistency that can't be ignored. The Mountaineers don't have the best pass rush so I do think North Texas will have time to make their throws down the field, but converting third downs regularly may be beyond them.
Moving the chains is not really going to be as much of a problem for the Appalachian State Mountaineers Offense especially as a run first team are ready to go up against the Mean Green Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run all season. There are some Senior players looking to put up one more big effort for Appalachian State who have won all five previous Bowl Games played and I do think the Mountaineers should be in a strong position for a rare cover in 2020.
They have been ripping off big gains running the ball and in their last three games North Texas have allowed an average of over 300 yards per game on the ground. That can't be ignored and it should mean Appalachian State are comfortable getting their Offensive unit rolling in the manner they would be looking for.
Zac Thomas may not be asked to do a lot of throwing, but play-action could open up the field if North Texas are not able to make any plays at the line of scrimmage. The Quarter Back has not been given the best protection, but the Mountaineers being able to run the ball just slows down any pass rush and it should mean Appalachian State are in a position to rack up the points.
I will admit that Appalachian State do not have a very good record against the spread when it comes to be favoured, but that is balanced out by how poorly North Texas have done as an underdog. The Mean Green are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog in a Bowl Game and I do think the limited time to prepare for the game will favour Appalachian State whose normal Offensive schemes should be too much for North Texas to keep up with on the scoreboard.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs Tulane Green Wave Pick: Both of these teams playing in the Idaho Potato Bowl have finished the season with six wins, although the Tulane Green Wave needed to win three non-Conference games to finish with a 6-5 record. The Nevada Wolf Pack were not able to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, but their 6-2 record deserves some respect even if it was all within the Conference.
That does raise some questions as to the quality of the opponents that the Wolf Pack have faced as they finished as one of four teams that had a winning record. A defeat to eventual Conference Champions San Jose State Spartans and another to the 4-4 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are counter balances to the one win Nevada have had against a team with a winning record.
They are facing a Tulane Green Wave team who have not really found the consistency they would have wanted in 2020, but who look like they could potentially match up well with Nevada.
As with some many American Football games, the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball are going to be hugely important and that is where Tulane look to have an edge over Nevada. The Green Wave are able to run the ball effectively and I do think the Wolf Pack Defensive Line will have issues slowing down the ground game which brings them balance Offensively.
Tulane should be able to run the ball and that should set them up to attack the Nevada Secondary which have given up some big plays in recent games. If the Green Wave are attacking them from third and short down and distance I do think Tulane will be able to have plenty of successes Offensively and a team averaging over 35 points per game will be difficult to slow down.
Controlling the line of scrimmage with the Tulane Defensive Line is also going to have a big impact on this game and there is some real talent in that unit, especially at this level. No one will doubt that Nevada can run the ball efficiently, but that is going to be much more difficult against a Tulane Defensive Line holding teams to 3.9 yards per carry across their last three games and that will put pressure on Carson Strong at Quarter Back.
Carson Strong has had a very good season where he has thrown 22 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions and if this game had taken place a few weeks ago you might think he could have another good showing. He has some quality Receiving options to target, but the Tulane Secondary have really ramped up their play after a slow start to 2020 and that could at least slow one or two drives.
Stalling them and forcing Nevada to settle for Field Goals or Punts will give Tulane a significant edge in the game. Stopping the run will also mean the Green Wave pass rush is able to get after the pass protection issues Nevada's Offensive Line have had in recent games and that is another way to rush Carson Strong and maybe lead to the Tulane Secondary continuing their strong showing of turning the ball over.
You can't really predict when a turnover will come, but over the course of the season Tulane have been better at creating them than Nevada and earning an extra possession or two will certainly give the favourite an edge.
Both teams have strong trends to protect, but I do think Tulane might be the better team and winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball should give them enough of an edge to win and cover.
BYU Cougars vs UCF Knights Pick: The 10-1 BYU Cougars took a risk by taking on another unbeaten team at short notice in the regular season to improve their Bowl standings. The narrow loss to Coastal Carolina hurt the Cougars who had been a big favourite as an Independent, but they will still be happy enough to be involved in the post-season and with a chance to finish the year before Christmas Day.
They have been paired up with the UCF Knights who had won at least ten games in each of the previous three seasons, but who finished up with a 6-3 record in 2020. The Knights have won two of their last three Bowl Games, but this is a season where they have struggled as they have been beaten by the three teams who finished above them in the American Athletic Conference.
The Bowl Game is being played closer to the Knights home than the Cougars, but BYU are very happy to get to a warmer climate even for a few days.
Dillon Gabriel and the Knights Offensive unit have been piling up the yards throughout the season, and that will always give them a chance in any game they play. It says something that their three defeats came by a combined 12 points and Gabriel is motivated as his father used to have a real rivalry with the Cougars in his own playing days.
That is something Gabriel has mentioned as soon as the Bowl Games were announced this past week and the Knights should find the balance to at least keep the strong Cougars Defense guessing somewhat. It is a shame that Marlon Williams, the top UCF Receiver has withdrawn from the Bowl Game, but Dillon Gabriel should still have some success as long as the Knights Offensive Line can open up some holes to keep the team in front of the chains.
Throwing the ball against the Cougars Secondary will be a challenge though and players will have to step up to cover for the absence of Williams.
It is an absence which could shift the balance to the Cougars who look to have a lot more balance Offensively than the Knights. While they should be able to run the ball very efficiently, the Cougars are also throwing into a Secondary which has struggled to contain the pass for much of the season.
BYU's Offensive Line looks more capable of opening up big holes against the Knights Defensive Line than we are likely to see on the other side of the ball. That should offer Zach Wilson a chance to have another big game having thrown for over 300 yards in the last game which secured the Cougars their double digit win season.
Zach Wilson is attacking a Knights Secondary which have given up some big yards through the season and running the ball should ease the UCF pass rush too. That gives the Cougars an edge in this game and one where they can pull away for the victory even in conditions that may favour UCF a little more.
The Knights record as an underdog is impressive and dampens some enthusiasm for the BYU Cougars, but I think the latter look to have the balance which should give them the edge in this game. The spread has moved, which I believe is down to the absence of Marlon Williams, but I still think the BYU Cougars can be backed to cover here.
Houston Cougars vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Pick: With a huge number of teams deciding that they will not want to be selected for a Bowl Game this season it has meant that the selection eligibility was changed for the 2020 season. It has been a difficult year for so many and that has meant two teams who have not won more than four games this season will be meeting in Texas.
This is a short journey for the Houston Cougars, but the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will be playing a Bowl Game on the mainland for just the third time in the history of the school. The Rainbow Warriors will be looking to mark a season with a winning record, while the Houston Cougars need to win this Bowl Game to return to 0.500, although Houston have lost their last three Bowl Games.
It will be the second time these schools are meeting in a Bowl Game, although there is no familiarity with one another since the last one was back in 2003. That saw the Rainbow Warriors narrowly beat Houston on home soil, but they are considered a big underdog in this one.
Momentum looks to be with the Rainbow Warriors who have won two of their last three, while the Cougars have lost three of their last four. However, there is no less motivation on either sideline and it should be a good game to watch ahead of Christmas Day.
I am surprised by the amount of points Hawaii are getting in this Bowl Game, although I think it is partly down to the fact they are making a long journey to Texas to take part. That could fatigue some of the players and the staff, especially as they won't have had a lot of time to settle in during the Covid-19 crisis that so many are dealing with and it may be a reason to believe Houston can wear down this opponent.
Both teams should be able to run the ball very effectively though and with that in mind I am expecting this to be a competitive game that may go all the way down to the wire. Neither Defensive Line has shown much ability to clamp down on the run and that should mean we have a game that sees the clock running very quickly and Houston may not have enough possessions to cover a double digit spread.
The feeling is that the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have a better passing Offense than the Cougars, but the Houston pass rush is more effective than their counterparts to balance that out. Even then I think both teams can find some balance Offensively which will make them very difficult to slow down and a potentially high-scoring game could be won by either team.
Again that makes the points on offer for the Rainbow Warriors look very appealing here and this could honestly come down to the bounce of the ball as to which team will win. Turnovers are important in any game, but in this one they could be vital in deciding which of these teams win.
Neither team has any strong trend to lean on.
In my opinion only the long journey to Texas will be going against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and I think they can make use of the points to keep this one competitive at the very least.
Buffalo Bulls vs Marshall Thundering Herd Pick: The starts that both of these teams made this season would have had them hoping they would be playing in a bigger Bowl Game than this one. However the Marshall Thundering Herd finished up with a 7-2 record after a surprising upset loss to the UAB Blazers in the Conference-USA Championship Game, while the Buffalo Bulls could not complete an unbeaten season when upset in the MAC Championship Game as a big favourite.
There should be a motivation to bounce back and at least end this season with a positive result in the Bowl Game, although Marshall have lost twice in a row heading into the post-season.
One of the main concerns for the Thundering Herd has to be the performance of the Defensive Line in the last game. For much of the season Marshall's Defensive Line have clamped down on the run and forced teams to beat them through the air, but the Blazers were able to pile up the numbers on the ground and now they are faced with an extremely strong running game that has been put together by the Buffalo Bulls.
Winning at the line of scrimmage is going to be the big challenge for both of these teams when Buffalo have the ball Offensively, but the Thundering Herd could be fortunate in not having to deal with Jaret Patterson. The Buffalo Running Back has had a massive season, but he picked up an injury a week ago in the Championship Game and, while Patterson does want to go in the Bowl Game, he could be limited at best and perhaps out altogether.
I still think the Bulls Offensive Line will open up some holes for whoever is carrying the ball, but Patterson is a special player and not having him at 100% is a big blow for the favourites.
It could mean having to lean on a passing game which has not developed to the same level as the run and that should offer the Thundering Herd Defensive unit an opportunity to make some big plays on Christmas Day.
Marshall look like they can find a better balance Offensively than the Bulls and that could be key to perhaps earning the upset in this game. It has not been easy to run the ball against the Bulls Defensive Line, but Brenden Knox has been a strong Running Back in his time with Marshall and will be expected to hit one or two holes up front that open up the passing game.
There are some areas of the Buffalo Secondary which can be exposed in the passing game, although much will depend on Marshall's Offensive Line and whether they can offer the protection to Grant Wells to give him the time to make those plays. Grant Wells has to be careful when it comes to the Interceptions that could turn the game in favour of Buffalo, but if the Thundering Herd find a balance Offensively they can keep this close.
The Bulls are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the favourite on a neutral field, while Marshall are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight Bowl Games. The Thundering Herd are also 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen games as the underdog and I think the points could be valuable in this Bowl Game.
Georgia State Panthers vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick: A late season surge has taken the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to the brink of at least finishing the year with a 0.500 record, but they will need one more win to do that. The Hilltoppers have won three games in a row, but they are the underdog in this Bowl Game against the Georgia State Panthers who need a win to finish with a winning season and who are playing their third post-season game in four seasons.
There will be some revenge on the mind of some of the players at Western Kentucky considering they were beaten by Georgia State in a Bowl Game in 2017. On that day the Panthers were the underdog, but the situation has switched in 2020.
While the Hilltoppers have shown improvement down the stretch, the Georgia State Panthers will be no less confident having won three of their last four games. Over the course of the season the Panthers have shown more consistency than the Hilltoppers, but recent games suggest this has the makings of a very close contest.
For starters Georgia State have had almost a month off from play and that could leave them a little out of rhythm which is going to be a big challenge on both sides of the ball. Offensively the Panthers are going up against an improved Western Kentucky Defensive unit and this is a Defensive Line which can clamp down on the run and that is going to at least force Georgia State to become one-dimensional.
Cornelious Brown IV is the Quarter Back for the Panthers and he has continued to produce some huge yards in the air which will encourage the favourites. However Brown IV is going to be throwing into a Secondary which have really improved their numbers down the stretch and a Defensive Line which brings a pass rush that is going to make him speed up his decision making when he does have to drop back to throw.
If the Hilltoppers are able to shut down the run, Cornelious Brown IV will be needing time for Receivers to get down the field and at least move the chains, but that will be the big test for him. He has been guilty of some inaccuracy, although the Western Kentucky Secondary have not been turning the ball over with Interceptions as much as they would like.
There will be some questions about whether the favourites will be able to have consistent Offensive success and so the opportunity is there for Western Kentucky to earn the upset.
Having a dual-threat Quarter Back will give the Hilltoppers an opportunity to find a bit of balance Offensively that will at least keep the Panthers Defensive unit honest. Like Western Kentucky, Georgia State have been very good in the Secondary when it comes to defending the pass, but there have been one or two more holes on the Defensive Line which could allow the Hilltoppers to be ahead of the chains at least.
The Panthers pass rush is very effective and that could be a difference maker when it comes down to deciding a winner, but I do think this is a very close game. Having the hook through a key number is a potential importance in the contest and that is where the underdog has to be the team to back in what looks a close, low-scoring game.
Western Kentucky have long been a very good underdog to back against the spread and I will back the Hilltoppers to at least cover in a game that could be decided by a Field Goal either way. That makes the hook especially important here.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs Liberty Flames Pick: These two teams are a combined 20-1 in 2020 and they have had a number of upsets to get into this position in what has been stellar years for the schools. The unbeaten Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 11-0 and may have been hoping that would be good enough to earn a really big Bowl spot, but losing the Championship Game to Covid-19 might have adversely affected their chances.
That Sun Belt Conference Championship Game may not have been given huge respect by the Bowl Game selectors, but it would have at least underlined how well Coastal Carolina have played this season. This is already a memorable season for the players who have taken the Chanticleers to a Bowl Game for the first time and the team are one of just five who have yet to lose a game in 2020.
On the other side of the field the Liberty Flames have finished with a 9-1 record as an Independent and the upset wins over Western Kentucky and Virginia Tech should mean there is no fear going in against an unbeaten opponent. The work Hugh Freeze has done as Head Coach of Liberty has not been ignored by anyone in College Football and some feel this may be his last game here before moving to a Power 5 School.
Hugh Freeze will want his team to finish with a flourish and produce a double digit win season which would have exceeded all expectations.
A dual-threat Quarter Back will make Liberty very dangerous and there have been signs that the Chanticleers Defensive unit have just worn down in games down the stretch. Malik Willis should be able to attack the Secondary and also work behind the Flames Offensive Line to move the ball down the field on the ground.
Any time a team can find an Offensive balance they will be difficult to stop and Coastal Carolina have not been able to stop the run in their most recent games. With the Flames likely to be in front of the chains when they do have the ball, Malik Willis should have a strong game throwing the ball too with some serious holes in the Chanticleers Secondary which can be exposed.
Malk Willis should have time to make his decision to run or throw the ball, but he has to be wary of Interceptions with turnovers likely to be a big factor in this game.
While Liberty will have some balance Offensively, it has been the key for Coastal Carolina all season to produce their 11-0 record in the regular season. The Chanticleers Offensive Line have been able to help produce some huge rushing yards for the team, but Liberty have to have faith in a Defensive Line which has restricted teams to 128 yards per game on the ground and at 4 yards per clip.
Grayson McCall has also had a very strong season at Quarter Back for Coastal Carolina and he will be expected to make some big plays for his team. He should be able to have some success against the Flames Secondary despite how well Liberty have played throughout the course of the season, especially as McCall is likely to have time to make the right decisions.
The Quarter Back has largely looked after the ball, but it will be the challenge to do the same against the Flames Secondary which has picked up some Interceptions. However I do think Coastal Carolina are going to be able to move the chains too and this feels like a very close game.
With that in mind I do think the amount of points being given to Liberty is too much and you can still pick them up with over a Touchdown start. Both teams have over-performed this season and that means they have both put together some strong trends against the numbers, but I do think this will be competitive down to the end and there is also a big potential for Liberty to earn a backdoor cover at the very least.
Miami Hurricanes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: Both the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Miami Hurricanes would have been hoping for stronger 2020 seasons that may have offered up a bigger Bowl Game than this one. However both should be motivated to round off the season with a victory, although both are already guaranteed to finish up with a winning record regardless.
Like many teams not involved in the College Football PlayOffs, the Cowboys and Hurricanes have seen some top NFL Draft prospects decide they will skip the Bowl Game to prepare for life in the professional ranks. That means both teams are losing key figures in this one with Oklahoma State down Chuba Hubbard and Miami missing big time Defensive Ends Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche and it could be a vital factor in the outcome of the game.
The Hurricanes are looking to bounce back from a blow out loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels, while the Oklahoma State Cowboys have split their last six regular season games as both teams missed out on Conference Championship Games.
Even though Chuba Hubbard is out, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have been able to fill in at Running Back and they should be able to do that here. Over their last three games the Miami Hurricanes have given up some huge yards on the ground and the Defensive Line has been weakened by the absences of Phillips and Roche which suggests the Big 12 team will be able to put up some huge yards in this one.
The Cowboys have shown they can manage to do that without Hubbard and I do think they will be in front of the chains Offensively which can open things up for Spencer Sanders who has had an inconsistent season at Quarter Back. Running the ball should slow down the Hurricanes pass rush which is missing those Defensive Ends mentioned, while Sanders is capable of moving the ball with his legs as well as his arm.
I do think Oklahoma State will be able to move the ball with some consistency as any team that establishes the run is capable of doing, but it will be more difficult for the Miami Hurricanes. While there have been some signs of wear and tear on the Cowboys Defensive Line, the Hurricanes have not been dominating at the line of scrimmage and there is every chance Oklahoma State can make some plays to clamp down on the run.
D'Eriq King at Quarter Back has to be respected though with the former Houston Cougar coming in off another strong season. His dual-threat from the Quarter Back position makes him dangerous and I do think King will have success throwing against this young Oklahoma State Secondary that has given up some big plays down the field. If Miami are not running the ball as they like, King will still show off his talent to keep the chains moving although it does also mean he will be facing a fierce Cowboys pass rush that should win at the line of scrimmage.
That is the best way to stall some drives by hitting the Quarter Back or making his rush his throws and I think it is the reason the Cowboys will find a way to win this Bowl Game.
Miami have a strong record as an underdog when it comes to the spread, but they are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine Bowl Games. On the other hand, Oklahoma State tend to be well Coached for these post-season games and have covered in four in a row in Bowl Games and I do think the Cowboys can be backed here.
Texas Longhorns vs Colorado Buffaloes Pick: There won't be much of a journey to be made for the Texas Longhorns who have a winning record, but will look back at 2020 with some regret. Tom Herman looked to be in the firing line and about to be outed as the Head Coach of the Longhorns, but the players have continued to play hard for him and that has seen Texas finish well and looking for another Bowl Game success.
There is plenty of experience in the Texas camp when it comes to the extra practices that come with a Bowl appearance, but the same can't be said for the Colorado Buffaloes who have a 4-1 record in 2020. The Buffaloes would have played in the Pac-12 Championship Game if another cancellation hadn't been needed in that Conference in 2020, but they are looking to bounce back from a blow out loss to the Utah Utes.
It has been some time since the Buffaloes have played in a Bowl Game, while they will be motivated to win a first post-season game since 2004. That excitement to perform in the post-season should make the Buffaloes dangerous, but there is a talent difference between these teams and Colorado have not run into any Ranked teams before facing Texas here.
The feeling is that the Buffaloes don't really match up very well with the Longhorns on the Offensive side of the ball and that could be an issue for them. While Colorado will want to run the ball first and then throw, the Longhorns Defensive Line has been able to at least clamp down up front while the Secondary have given up the yards.
A lack of experience has to be a slight concern for Colorado too, although that youthful exuberance could see them make more plays than you might anticipate. With that in mind I do think Colorado will have some success on the ground, while they will have time to throw the ball down the field against Texas, although I am not sure they can do it consistently to score enough points to challenge the Longhorns.
Sam Ehlinger would have been hoping to have had a bigger 2020 considering his experience as the starting Quarter Back in Texas, but he has not really been supported as well as he would have liked. The numbers have remained strong, but in this one Ehlinger may be looking to use his legs more than his arm.
He is capable of running the ball from Quarter Back, but Ehlinger may also be able to hand the ball off and see the Longhorns Offensive Line open up some big holes in the running game. Colorado's Defensive Line have struggled up front and Texas should be able to impose themselves on this game which will put them in a strong position to win this game.
Running the ball should slow the Colorado pass rush considerably, and I do think it will give the Longhorns the chance to prolong drives and eventually force the Buffaloes into throwing the ball more than they are comfortable doing. It should give the Longhorns the chance to pull clear for the win here and extend their run of Bowl Game successes under Head Coach Tom Herman.
Texas have some strong numbers against the spread when it comes to the neutral field games and playing those from outside the Big 12 and I think they can cover even with some key players missing as they prepare for the NFL Draft.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Wisconsin Badgers Pick: The winner of this Bowl Game is going to be able to end 2020 on a high as it would secure a winning season for the year and I expect that to bring some motivation to the field. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Wisconsin Badgers have both been inconsistent to say the least and I do think the Badgers have more to prove after coming up short in their bid to play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Wisconsin have not been helped with Covid-19 outbreaks that have prevented momentum being picked up, but they did at least finish the regular season with a win.
A big part of the problem for Wisconsin is the lack of consistency Offensively which has meant the Defensive unit has been under pressure to keep them in games. That may not be the case in this Bowl Game if the Wake Forest Defense plays to a similar level as they have shown for much of the season and I do expect the Badgers to have a better day all around when they have the ball in their hands.
Most teams have found a healthy balance against the Demon Deacons Defensive unit with an ability to run the ball and throw the ball against them. While we have not seen that consistently from the Wisconsin Badgers, I do think they should be able to have more success here even with the relatively poor showings we have seen for much of the season.
One problem that looks to have been resolved is the status of Quarter Back Graham Mertz who was knocked out of the final regular season game but has had some time to recover ahead of the Bowl Game. It is important for Mertz who will be expected to take the next step in his development next season and I think he can show off some of the talent against a vulnerable Wake Forest Defense.
The Defensive play has meant Wake Forest have had to take more risks Offensively to try and stay in games and we should see some of that here. However they are facing a tough Badgers Defensive unit which has prided itself on clamping down on the run and then forcing mistakes in the passing game.
Running the ball will be all the more difficult for the Demon Deacons when you think Kenneth Walker III will be missing having opted out of the post-season. The passing numbers have been strong mainly because the team have had to throw the ball to stay in games, but the Wisconsin Secondary have made big plays throughout the season and I think they are going to be able to do the same here which will give the favourites a real edge.
Wisconsin have not been a very good favourite to back in recent times and Wake Forest have excelled in the role of an underdog. That has to be a concern backing against the Demon Deacons, but they are arguably missing their best players on either side of the ball which should give the Badgers the chance to dominate the line of scrimmage and which should mean they have a real edge in the game.
It is a big mark, make no mistake about that, but Wisconsin should control the time of possession and grind down Wake Forest before a couple of late scores take them over the line.
Oklahoma Sooners vs Florida Gators Pick: This is a game that would not have been that out of place in the College Football PlayOff and I very much believe it would have been part of that post-season if the field had been extended to six or eight teams. The Oklahoma Sooners have long known they are unlikely to be selected for the PlayOffs having made a really slow start to the season, but they rallied to win the Big 12 Championship again and will believe 2021 is going to be a much bigger year for them.
On the other side of the field are the Florida Gators who came up short in the SEC Championship Game, but gave Alabama all they could handle in that game. Dan Mullen has to be given credit for the way he has had the Gators playing this season, but the post-season is not as valuable to the players as it would have been if they had made the PlayOffs.
While those attending will be highly motivated, it can't be ignored that the Gators are missing their top three Receivers as well as Tight End Kyle Pitts and that is going to mean Quarter Back Kyle Trask is likely to have a tough day. He should still be able to make plays thanks to the schemes that the Gators will put together, but the Oklahoma Sooners Defensive unit have been a strength of the team and they will believe taking on the second and third string choices for the Gators gives them an advantage.
It may all come down to how well Trask throws the ball because the Sooners have been able to clamp down on the run and Florida have not moved the ball behind their Offensive Line. I expect Kyle Trask to show why he had such a strong season, but he will also be under intense pressure from the Oklahoma pass rush and has to be wary of the play-making ability of the Sooners Secondary.
Kyle Trask was really a surprise this season, but the Oklahoma Sooners always knew what they had in Spencer Rattler even if he made a slow start as he found experience at this level. Now he is looking like the player that so many believed he would be and Rattler will have a chance to showcase that talent to a wider audience when taking on a SEC Defensive unit.
Like his counterpart, Spencer Rattler is not expected to have a lot of support from the running game, but he should have a chance to get into the Florida Secondary which gave up some big plays in the final two games played. He will have to watch out for the Gators pass rush, but Rattler has been careful with the ball and Florida have not created the same kind of turnovers as Oklahoma which could prove to be the difference on the day.
I expect Rattler to edge out Trask in the battle at Quarter Back and I think the Gators are missing enough big players to give the Oklahoma Sooners an edge.
Florida have played really well in recent Bowl Games and they have to be respected with how well they have done as an underdog, but I think they could be short here. The Sooners have also played well as a favourite and I think the favourites deserve the edge, while the money seems to have come down behind Oklahoma when you consider the spread move.
MY PICKS: Appalachian State Mountaineers - 21 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tulane Green Wave - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Marshall Thundering Herd + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Liberty Flames + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 1 Point @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
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