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Friday, 11 December 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (December 11-13)

The European competitions had their Group Stages completed this past week and that means the Champions League and Europa League can go into hibernation until next year, but for clubs in the Premier League there is little respite from the football.

Those seven clubs involved in Europe will be accustomed to playing twice a week and they will continue that trend with three rounds of Premier League fixtures to be played over the next ten days.

Even then some of those clubs will be preparing for League Cup Quarter Final matches before entering another ten day period where another three rounds of Premier League fixtures are going to be played.

It is always a hectic time of the year but there is no doubting that the 2020/21 season is busier than usual thanks to the late start for the majority of the top European Leagues. Squads are going to have to be utilised and that means us Fantasy Football players have to pay extra attention to managers and whether our 'star players' are going to need to have some rest.

No one can play all of the League games in the month ahead, but teams can ill-afford to lose ground on their ambitions for the campaign either and so it will be a challenging time for everyone.

More on my Fantasy thoughts below, but first my predictions for the Premier League weekend to be played which begins on Friday Night Football.


Leeds United v West Ham United Pick: On paper Leeds United versus West Ham United should be a decent game of football as both teams have tended to play some good attacking football, but at the same time have struggled defensively.

The home team will force West Ham United into that kind of game with Marcelo Bielsa unlikely to change his system or beliefs. For much of the season it has worked well for Leeds United who have created chances and looked capable of scoring goals every time they have got forward.

However that system has left Leeds United vulnerable at the back and this is a defence that has given up some massive opportunities to opponents. I fully expect West Ham United to use their pace and quality in the final third to be able to exploit Leeds United on the counter attack and it would be something of a surprise if both teams don't score in this one.

It does have to be noted that Leeds United have seemingly been more effective away from home, but that might just be an anomaly at the moment. The side have actually been able to create plenty of home chances and it has just been a little more luck that has been required to score more goals here.

Last time out at home, Leeds United dominated Arsenal and only poor finishing let them down. I expect they will create chances against this West Ham United team who have not been effective defensively, but I also think The Hammers will be a threat from set pieces and on the counter as I have mentioned before.

Recent games have seen both teams looking as likely to score as they are to conceded and Leeds United's philosophy to not take a backward step should make this a fun game for neutrals to enjoy on Friday evening.


Wolves v Aston Villa Pick: An unexpected break has given Aston Villa two weeks to think about the performances in the back to back 2-1 losses to Brighton and West Ham United. Both defeats were largely disappointing, but Dean Smith should also be aware that his team actually played very well in both games and perhaps just missed a bit of fortune or a better cutting edge which prevented them taking all three points.

While they will be looking to bounce back in this derby game, Wolves are also looking for a reaction after crumbling to a 4-0 defeat at Liverpool. They actually looked pretty comfortable before a Conor Coady mistake allowed Liverpool to take the lead and there were opportunities for Wolves to get back into the match while it was still 1-0.

The manner of the collapse is troubling though, while you can't ignore how big an absence Raul Jimenez is going to be for this team. The Mexican striker looked to knit everything together up front and without him Wolves decided on a 'false nine' approach last weekend which didn't go well to say the least.

I do think Nuno Espirito Santo will be looking for a more positive approach to this fixture and Wolves have certainly been a tough proposition to beat at this ground. I do think that gives them a chance, but Aston Villa are playing as well as anyone in the Division especially when they get forward and look to attack and that makes this a hard fixture for me to really get a firm grip on.

Simply put I can't really find any angle on the game in which I would be comfortable and this may be one to take a watching brief if only for Fantasy purposes.


Newcastle United v West Brom Pick: This feels like a big game for West Brom who will be looking to bounce back from the embarrassment of losing 1-5 at home against Crystal Palace last Sunday.

They have lost 4 of their last 5 Premier League games and Slaven Bilic is under some pressure as manager of the club, but West Brom may feel there is an opportunity for them here.

Recent form is not the best, but they are facing a Newcastle United team who had to postpone a fixture last week because of a Covid-19 outbreak in the squad. No one really knows what kind of long-term impact that is going to have on professional athletes, but you do have to wonder if the squad is going to be short-handed for this one.

It sounds like Newcastle United have had the majority of their squad back in full training on Wednesday though and this is a team who won 0-2 at Crystal Palace two weeks ago. The Magpies are a hard team to figure out as they can be very good going forward, but also have matches where they are struggling to really produce consistency in the final third.

However, I do think Newcastle United will find a way to create opportunities against a West Brom team who have been allowing far too many good chances for opponents. Even in the win against Sheffield United it was only poor finishing from the visitors that helped West Brom win that fixture.

I simply can't ignore the fact that West Brom have not created more chances or better scoring opportunities against any opponent in the Premier League this season. They are lacking some goals as evidenced by a single strike in their last 4 away League games and I do think defensively teams will always have a chance against The Baggies.

The home team should win here, but I would be a little careful in backing them with the uncertainty about the Covid-19 outbreak in mind.


Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: A little over twelve months ago Manchester United left the Etihad Stadium with a 1-2 win over their rivals Manchester City and some described it as the best performance under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

Through the remainder of the season Manchester United would beat Manchester City two more times, although a 1-3 defeat at Old Trafford in the League Cup Semi Final First Leg cost them a place in the Final of that competition.

The last time they met at Old Trafford was the last time the fans were able to attend a game in this Stadium and Manchester United beat Manchester City 2-0 which should give the players some confidence.

They will need all the confidence they can get having been criticised for the slow start in Germany on Tuesday night which has cost Manchester United a place in the Last 16 of the Champions League. The defeat to Leipzig means Europa League Football returns to Old Trafford in the New Year and the pressure is back on the manager who will be desperate for another big result over their rivals to ease some of the criticisms he is dealing with.

Manchester United's poor form at Old Trafford has to be a concern with their sole League win coming against a really poor West Brom team. They failed to score against either Chelsea or Arsenal, although Manchester United at least showed better defensive efforts in those games and against West Brom than they did in their defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League.

Now they have to face a Manchester City who are unbeaten since losing to Tottenham Hotspur and who have continued to show a better balance than they did for much of last season. Pep Guardiola has tweaked his system to make them a little more solid at the back, but the absence of Sergio Aguero for long periods have meant the team have struggled to finish off the chances that they have been creating.

Manchester City have been more ruthless in the Champions League and beat Marseille 3-0 at home during the week, but this is not a team who have been hammering teams in the Premier League. They have beaten Wolves 1-3 at Molineux and earned their usual 5-0 win over Burnley at home, but Manchester City have been held to less than two goals in 6 of their 10 League games.

It has certainly been the case away from home as Manchester City have scored three goals in their last 4 away Premier League games, although they have been pretty good defensively too. Mistakes were costly in the defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, but they controlled last parts of that match and it will be all about containing the Manchester United counter attack in this one.

Picking a winner isn't easy- in the two years Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has been in charge he has overseen big wins when seemingly under the most pressure, but Manchester City also look much better than the team who lost 3 of 4 derbies in the 2019/20 season.

I think all three results are in play, but I won't be as surprised as the layers if this fixture ends with fewer than three goals shared out. The last 3 Manchester United home Premier League games and the last 4 Manchester City away Premier League games have finished that way.

Even the last 2 Manchester derbies have finished with two or fewer goals shared out between the rivals, while 3 of the last 5 Premier League games between the clubs at Old Trafford have done the same. Manchester City have looked pretty good at both ends of the field and I think this will be a tight, competitive derby game where neither manager will want their team to make the mistakes that could prove costly on the day.


Everton v Chelsea Pick: 2000 Everton fans will be allowed into Goodison Park to offer support to their club who have fallen off the fast pace they began this season with.

After winning 7 in a row in all competitions which saw Everton top the Premier League and progress to the League Cup Quarter Final, injuries and suspension have begun to affect preparation. That has led to a run of 1 win in 7 League games and Everton have slipped down the League standings, while they have lost their last 2 at Goodison Park and may need the support of the fans to turn things around.

In the 2 losses to Manchester United and Leeds United, Everton have been outplayed and the visitors have deserved their wins. Leeds United in particularly could have won by a much wider margin than their 0-1 victory here and I do think Chelsea are playing well enough to hurt the home team if they are not at their best.

Everton have played well against Chelsea at Goodison Park in recent years and have beaten them twice in a row here. That will offer some encouragement for the players, but I do think this Chelsea squad may be stronger than recent visiting squads to this ground.

Frank Lampard has struck a fine balance between attack and defence away from home and Chelsea have won 5 in a row on their travels in all competitions. They have scored at least twice in each victory, while Chelsea have only conceded a single goal in their last 6 away games.

I am not sure they can contain an Everton team that had scored in 8 home games in a row before the defeat to Leeds United. While they were looking poor at the back, Everton did create chances in that game so they will feel they can challenge Chelsea, although, as I have mentioned, I am not sure they can contain this attacking line up.

It could be a decent football game on Saturday evening, although I will be watching the Boxing, and I think Chelsea may win a sixth away game in succession while scoring at least twice to do so. Snapping their recent poor run of visits to Goodison Park would also underline Chelsea's credentials as a potential Premier League title winner.


Southampton v Sheffield United Pick: The early Sunday Premier League kick off sees Southampton host Sheffield United and recent form suggests there is only one winner of the fixture.

Chris Wilder has to be given credit for the raising of the profile of Sheffield United in recent seasons, but that doesn't mean he is going to be given a lot more time to find a positive result. Another late goal cost Sheffield United last weekend, while they continue to show defensive vulnerabilities that were not highlighted last season.

Losing Dean Henderson and Jack O'Connell has really hurt the side and it has meant the lack of goals has really been a major problem for Sheffield United. Even last season they didn't score a lot of goals, but this time around the clean sheets are not coming and that means Sheffield United have struggled to snap their poor Premier League form.

The Blades have lost 13 of their last 14 Premier League games and have lost 7 in a row away from home. While they are creating chances, Sheffield United may struggle to do that at St Mary's where Southampton have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 home League games.

Add in the fact that Danny Ings is back for Southampton and this is a team who have been creating chances and scoring goals and I do think the home side will have too much for their visitors. They have scored two goals in every League game played here this season and I do think Sheffield United will struggle to contain the home team.

Southampton have not been creating as many chances as they would like, but they are a threat on the counter and from set pieces. I think that will show up here too and The Saints are likely to win this game while maintaining their run of goals being scored.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Jose Mourinho may be insisting his team are not in the Premier League title race, but Tottenham Hotspur have plenty of experience in their squad. Many of the members will have been playing with the club when Tottenham Hotspur pushed Leicester City in 2015/16 and this is a team which has reached the Champions League Final.

Those achievements means the players should believe that their manager can push them on a little further and build on what Mauricio Pochettino had put in place with Tottenham Hotspur.

Games like this will really tell us a lot more about Tottenham Hotspur, but they already in the midst of a tough run and remain on top of the Premier League. Home wins over Manchester City and Arsenal and an away draw at Chelsea are impressive, but making it more so is that Spurs have kept clean sheets in all of those games.

They look like a Jose Mourinho team, but I do think people are perhaps not as aware that Tottenham Hotspur are not creating a host of chances in their recent games. Even in a win at Burnley at the end of October Tottenham Hotspur showed a clinical edge to their performance which perhaps led to an undeserved win.

Whether that is sustainable has to be a concern, but you have to credit the organisation they have shown at the back. Neither Chelsea or Arsenal created a lot against Tottenham Hotspur and Mourinho will remind his team that you can't lose matches if you keep clean sheets.

Crystal Palace will feel they can test Tottenham Hotspur having scored five times against West Brom last Sunday and with Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke both scoring twice. Those two players will give Roy Hodgson's team and attacking threat, but I do think Jose Mourinho will be prepared by not allowing too much space for Crystal Palace to counter attack into.

I do think Roy Hodgson is the kind of manager that won't allow his team to be as naive as Arsenal last weekend and that should mean they offer more protection against the Tottenham Hotspur counter attack too. They will look to make it difficult for Tottenham Hotspur to exploit spaces with the feeling that Spurs have not been as effective when it comes to breaking down a low block, although with the quality in this team it can't be dismissed.

Set pieces could be huge in the game for both teams, but I am expecting a low-scoring fixture.

9 of the last 10 between Crystal Palace and Tottenham Hotspur have finished with less than three goals shared out. The 1-1 draw these two played out here on the final day of last season is the first time in 10 games that both teams have hit the net in the same game too.

On that day, Tottenham Hotspur scored early but created very little else and I do think chances will be at a premium in this one. Tottenham Hotspur have shown they are clinical enough to take them, but I think there won't be many goals here and the first one could be crucial either way.

The last 3 Tottenham Hotspur away games have all finished with less than three goals shared out and I think the players have bought into Jose Mourinho's system. I don't think he will change here and it is all about managing the game ahead of the big one at Anfield, while Roy Hodgson is smart enough to know he wants his team to be hard to beat rather than enterprising going forward with a point likely to be an important one for his club.

The two managers may not want to give too much away here.


Fulham v Liverpool Pick: If all things were equal you would make Liverpool a really big favourite to beat Fulham whether they play them at Anfield or at Craven Cottage, but this Liverpool team are not playing at their top level of late.

That is especially the case away from home as Liverpool had to settle for a third straight 1-1 draw when finishing with that scoreline at Midtjylland during the week. The last 2 away Premier League games have both ended 1-1 at Manchester City and Brighton, although the latter needed a late Penalty to secure a point against Liverpool.

However both Brighton and Midtjylland did create chances against a Liverpool team that are still potentially without some key performers. I expect Fulham to be able to do the same with their recent performances in find outside of the 2-0 defeat at Manchester City, although it is still hard to imagine an upset considering the porous defence Scott Parker has had to rely on.

Teams have been able to create chances against Fulham and I think it would be quite an incredible day if Liverpool were not able to do that and score goals here. They still have their much respected front three available for selection, but Liverpool have found it hard to build the consistency away from home and they did not create much at the Amex Stadium.

Brighton have shown they have more defensive strength than Fulham though and I expect Liverpool to hurt a vulnerable backline.

The real question is how the remainder of the game will go and I think the layers are on top of things with their Asian Handicap- I could make a case for Fulham with the 1.5 goal start, but also feel Liverpool could make a mockery of the line considering Arsenal, Aston Villa and Everton have all scored three times at Craven Cottage this season.

Fulham have created home chances in recent games here and I do think they can get after a Liverpool team who are not showing complete faith in their ability to keep opponents from scoring goals. The title favourites have been more vulnerable away from home and I would not be surprised if both teams hit the back of the net.

An early goal could really spark this fixture and there is every chance we are going to see one.

In 6 of the last 8 Liverpool away games the first goal has been scored before the 17th minute, while in only 1 of the 6 games played at Craven Cottage have we had to wait until after the 10th minute for the first goal.

A fast start is likely to be in play on Sunday when these teams meet too as both managers look for their team to get on the front foot in what could turn out to be a high-scoring fixture.


Arsenal v Burnley Pick: The rumour mill is suggesting that Mikel Arteta could be sacked by the end of next weekend if the results are not what the Arsenal board expect.

The fixtures in front of Arteta and his team are not the most appealing and you would really worry for Arsenal if they were to lose this one. Southampton visit during the week and they then go to Everton before facing Manchester City in the League Cup and you do have to think that Mikel Arteta needs to find at least 5 points from the next three games.

Even that may be a sign that Arsenal have let standards slip again, but that is where a club in 15th place would have to be realistic about their chances. Teams like Everton and Southampton are operating much higher up the League table, while an improving Burnley have shown resiliency that has been missing from some of Arsenal's recent performances.

2000 fans will be inside the Emirates Stadium, but they won't forget that Arsenal have lost 3 in a row here in the Premier League. Wins over Dundalk and Molde in the Europa League won't paper over the cracks and there is a pressure on Arsenal who have not created a lot of chances while also looking vulnerable at the back.

However I do have to say that Burnley have not really been a huge threat going forward and they have not been defending as well as we may have become accustomed to seeing. They have not scored in their last 3 away games in the Premier League, although Burnley have only lost at Manchester City in that time, and I do think Arsenal have created enough at home to believe they can at least score once.

It will be a nervy game at the Emirates Stadium and we may learn if the players are still behind their manager. My feeling is that Arsenal will win, although I am not anticipating a lot of goals.

Arsenal have only scored more than two goals in 1 of their last 8 home Premier League games, while they have not kept a clean sheet in that time. I am just not sure Burnley can test the backline as they would want and The Gunners may come through a nervy game with a very narrow win to ease the pressure on Mikel Arteta for a few days.


Leicester City v Brighton Pick: I think there will be plenty of people who see Leicester City at odds against and will be rushing out to back them this weekend.

Personally I say 'not so fast my friend'.

There has been much to like about Leicester City this season and their late winner at Sheffield United last Sunday coupled with topping their Europa League Group on Thursday should mean the squad are feeling very good about themselves.

However the enthusiasm for those wanting to back Leicester City has to be balanced against the fact that this team has proven to be one that doesn't seem as comfortable trying to break teams down on the front foot. And that is something any team that is chasing Champions League spots in the Premier League has to anticipate they are going to have to do, especially at home.

Leicester City have managed to do that at the King Power Stadium in the Europa League, but it has been a much different story in the Premier League. They have lost 4 League games this season and 3 of those have come at home.

West Ham United, Aston Villa and Fulham have all won League games at this Stadium and anyone who has been following Brighton at all this season will tell you that their team is much better than the points tally may suggest. A home defeat to Southampton last Monday would have hurt, but Brighton continue to find a way to drop points from strong positions and that is the one reason I can't really back them for a result here this weekend either.

Brighton will cause problems as they do carry a threat going forward, while they have been better organised than their defensive numbers may suggest. I think they are a team that will be underestimated by those looking at their League position alone and the layers clearly respect them enough to dangle the Leicester City price out there.

In the summer these two met here and it ended goalless, but Brighton missed a first half penalty that day and were largely untroubled. There is absolutely no reason to believe they couldn't pick up a point at the least considering Leicester City's home form, but I also have to acknowledge that The Seagulls are finding ways to lose matches they shouldn't at the moment and so I will just have to follow the fixture and see whether that gives me anything to go with when these teams continue their hectic December schedules.

MY PICKS: Leeds United-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Newcastle United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester United-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals
Southampton & Over 1.5 Goals
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals
Fulham-Liverpool Time of First Goal Before 23 Minutes
Arsenal & Under 3.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 12
Like with any Fantasy game you may play in any League, you have to have the courage of your convictions at times even when things have conspired against you.

After a difficult GW10 with missed Penalties and VAR taking points away from players, GW11 was a true bounce back week in which I was able to keep Jack Grealish and Ollie Watkins on the bench, but still find a way to churn out 86 points.

I am still over par for the season, but it is encouraging and the next few weeks could be a pivotal time as we learn the January schedule (which is going to include a DGW and a blank GW for some teams), while trying to be in front of managers and their rotations is key especially when it comes to the big priced options in the Fantasy squads.

There are some managers who I truly believe will do little rotation, but there are others who seem to bring out the tombola an hour and a half before kick off and choose their elevens from that (hello Pep).

That is something we have to manage and I am going to have more thoughts on that on Tuesday when GW13 is set to begin before a full round of midweek League games.

Short turnarounds do mean there is a greater risk of injury, suspensions and rotations coming into play but that is something we have to look to manage.


A couple of weeks ago I had one or two comments about the fact I had left Harry Kane on my Fantasy bench in favour of the likes of Ollie Watkins, Che Adams and Tomas Soucek, but it was largely a decision made with a number of goals in my mind. It was all a moot point by the end of the GW as Raheem Sterling didn't play against Burnley so Kane was first sub in, but I did reply that my reasoning was that I did not believe Tottenham Hotspur would score more goals than Southampton, West Ham United or Aston Villa that weekend.

It turned out right- Spurs played out a goalless draw at Chelsea, while the other three teams combined for five goals (a bit of honesty here, my players missed one penalty, had a goal chalked out by VAR and didn't play a part in any of those goals so came back with either the same or fewer points than Kane).

If not for a missed penalty from Ollie Watkins, it would have been a really good decision and comes back to having some courage to make decisions which others will mock you for if you get them wrong.

Opposing Harry Kane to score in any fixtures is always likely going to leave you open to despair, but in Fantasy it is about balancing the squad and making sure you are ahead of the curve and not joining a move when others have already benefited greatly from a player.

It can also be described as stubbornness and may be the main reason I have not selected Heung-Min Son and Dominic Calvet-Lewin so far this season. The former definitely has numbers that look to be unsustainable, but that belief has cost me big points in the past and I have learned from those (really I have, even though I've admitted that I've had neither player).

This season has perhaps been a little easier to do avoid jumping on a bandwagon as so many clubs seem to have players producing decent returns. Both Son and Calvert-Lewin are in the top five performers to this point of the season, but even then I have managed to improve my Ranking without them and over the next few games they are both not really on my radar with the fixtures coming up.


And that leads me into my likely transfer for the week- I am going to remove Harry Kane from my team!

There is no doubting how well Kane is playing and he is clearly buying into what Jose Mourinho is selling along with his team mates, but the next four fixtures look difficult to say the least. Crystal Palace, Liverpool and Wolves away and Leicester City at home is coming up for Spurs who have been picking up points despite facing a tough run prior to these games.

However I think we are going to see classic Jose Mourinho performances and that is tough to beat systems with the counter attack being key. With that in mind I do think Kane may not be producing as many points as you would want from a near 11 million asset, although I am likely going to look to either bring him or Son back later this month.

I do think there are other teams who have been creating chances and look to be heading into a positive set of games and the one that catches the eye the most has to be Leeds United.

Who is going to doubt that Marcelo Bielsa is going to attack every game they play this season? And who will ignore the underlying stats that have Leeds United down as one of the more productive teams going forward, albeit one that is not at clinical as the manager would like.

With Kane about to be removed, the easiest option looks to be Patrick Bamford- I was not sure he was going to really be able to produce at this level and I am still not convinced he is a striker that will be a long-term solution for Leeds United, but you can't ignore the fact he leads the line for a team who create chances and he has been scoring some of the big opportunities that have come his way.

The striker faces West Ham United, Newcastle United and Burnley at home with trips to Manchester United and West Brom over the next five GWs and I do think Leeds United may score more goals than Tottenham Hotspur. While Kane is sharing the scoring with Son, Patrick Bamford has been the biggest threat for Leeds United although the one shame is that he is not on Penalties.

However he does save some considerable cash for my team and with other clubs about to enter what look to be productive portions of their schedules, I can at least balance out my squad.


I have mentioned DGWs are coming up and a potential Blank GW for some teams in early January, but I will delve into that a little more across the next two threads which should be out on Tuesday and then Friday next week.

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