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It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Tuesday, 15 December 2020

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (December 15-17)

The next two Premier League GameWeeks are going to come in quick succession and that means Fantasy players will have to be aware of the next two deadlines.

The first will be on Tuesday afternoon at 4:30pm and the second will be Saturday morning at 11am before the majority of the Division have a week off through to Boxing Day. At that point the next two deadlines will be at 11am on a Saturday morning and 1:30pm on Monday afternoon with the quick turnaround in fixtures meaning rotations will be in heavy use.

With the first Blank GameWeek and Double GameWeek of the season coming up in early January, I will have a few more thoughts about the latest Fantasy week below.


After a weekend in which the majority of the Premier League leaders failed to win games, it does mean the entire Division has tightened up. There are some exceptions with Sheffield United continuing to struggle, but the likes of Burnley and Fulham have just dragged Brighton back towards them after many felt the three relegated clubs were going to come from the bottom four teams after poor starts to the season.

Another round of fixtures in the Premier League will see the table look quite different by the end of Thursday evening and I also don't think we are very far away from the first Sacking in the Premier League with the likes of Slaven Bilic and Mikel Arteta beginning to feel their seats warming up considerably.


Wolves v Chelsea Pick: It was a disappointing weekend for many of the top teams in the Premier League, but Chelsea have an opportunity to at least put the pressure on some of their potential title rivals.

They get to play first during the week in the latest round of Premier League fixtures and Chelsea look to have a good chance to extend the poor run of form Wolves find themselves in.

Wolves won at Arsenal, but they were inspired to play for their team-mate Raul Jimenez who suffered a nasty injury during the game. Since then Wolves have lost back to back Premier League games and failed to score a goal without their talismanic Mexican leading the line and I do think this is going to be a real concern for Nuno Espirito Santo for as long as Jimenez is missing.

A tight Division, those back to back losses have dropped Wolves into the bottom half of the table. The manager has insisted he wants to make Wolves a regular name in European Football, but they have not found the consistency they would have wanted without the demands of playing every few days.

That is something Chelsea have had to deal with, although it was no excuse for the 1-0 defeat at Everton on Saturday. Another mistake at the back was costly this time, but Frank Lampard will feel his team deserved more than they got on the day.

You do have to worry about some of the injuries in the wide areas and I do think that makes Chelsea less threatening. They had scored at least twice in 5 away games in a row before the loss at Goodison Park, but missing the likes of Christian Pulisic, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Hakim Ziyech does reduce the attacking options.

Pulisic could be back this week, but this could be a tight game against a Wolves team who are still defending pretty well. They have been much better at the back at home especially and I do think this could be a fixture in which one of these sides could struggle to break down the other.

An early goal could change the entire complexion of the fixture, but I do think both Wolves and Chelsea have defended well enough barring a couple of mistakes here and there. If they can play a cleaner game all around, both teams will feel they are set up well enough to keep the other at arm's length and it would be no surprise if one of these teams fail to hit the back of the net.


Manchester City v West Brom Pick: There may have been some criticism with the way Manchester City approached the derby on Saturday, but Pep Guardiola will point to a clean sheet, a positive result and the feeling that his team had the best chances on the day.

With the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur all dropping points after the Manchester derby was played, the manager may also see the draw at Old Trafford in greater light now.

Anything less than a win would not be acceptable in this League fixture though, but Manchester City have to balance the squad as they continue playing every three or four days. A big game at Southampton is on deck, but Pep Guardiola will be demanding his team continue getting on top of teams early at the Etihad Stadium.

In their last 2 Premier League games here Manchester City beat Burnley 5-0 and Fulham 2-0 and in both fixtures they scored early and often. That has to be a real concern for Slaven Bilic who saw his West Brom team concede inside a minute at Newcastle United on Saturday and also within ten minutes against Crystal Palace the previous weekend.

The manager has given his team a stable platform in games against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United which will be encouraging, but much is going to depend on whether West Brom can get through the early minutes at the Etihad Stadium.

In 6 of the 9 games Manchester City have hosted this season the home team have scored inside 20 minutes and I imagine they are going to make a fast start in this one. Pep Guardiola will be looking for his team to get into a comfortable position as soon as possible so he can rest some players and give others some more minutes in the leg and I do think Manchester City have proven they are capable of doing that here.

To be fair to West Brom they have been pretty good at the beginning of matches away from home not including the performance at St James' Park this past weekend.

However it will be difficult to contain Manchester City in this fixture who have scored inside ten minutes against Leicester City, Burnley and Fulham in the Premier League.

The first goal could come early in this one barring another VAR intervention which chews up three or four minutes as we saw at Craven Cottage this past Sunday. Manchester City will be looking to get on top early and they are the ones most likely to do that.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: Another home Premier League game ending in another defeat has really ramped up the pressure on Mikel Arteta. Reports are suggesting players are not happy with their manager and that the Spaniard may have lost the dressing room, but there isn't much time to recover from the really disappointing 0-1 defeat to Burnley.

They face a much tougher opponent on Wednesday and one that is in very good form after a comfortable 3-0 win over Sheffield United on Sunday.

Southampton have won at Aston Villa and scored plenty of goals when hosting Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, although defensive vulnerabilities have been clear in all of those games. That is something that has to encourage Arsenal, but Southampton will be aware that the likes of Leicester City, Aston Villa and Burnley have all won without conceding a goal at the Emirates Stadium.

Last week this would have been a very interestingly priced game- most layers had Arsenal down as an odds on favourite, but that price has disappeared and now the expectation is that this will be a much closer game.

I think I would have been interested in picking Southampton to avoid a defeat last week, but with those prices looking very short I do think this is a fixture that needs to be watched.

As poor as the Arsenal results have been, they have been creating chances at home at the very least and this Southampton team have been far more clinical in front of goal to overachieve. They could so the same here with Danny Ings and Che Adams up front, but I think it is a hard game to really feel confident about.

If the Arsenal players haven't given up on Arteta, I do think they have the potential to earn a result. However I also think Southampton have to be massively respected and this is a fixture that could go any which way.


Leeds United v Newcastle United Pick: This should be a decent game of football on Wednesday even if you don't always equate an attacking style with Steve Bruce.

That is largely down to Leeds United and the approach they will have to every Premier League game, although you do have to be concerned with their lack of final product of late. The final touch is the one that has been missing to the good football being played and it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Leeds United have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 5 League games here.

Delve a little deeper and you will note that Leeds United have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 6 Premier League games since beating Aston Villa 0-3 at Villa Park.

At the same time they have been a team that have been hit and miss at the back and that should encourage Newcastle United who have pace on the counter which they used very effectively in their last couple of Premier League games.

The Leeds United numbers do suggest they will eventually put a game together where they hammer someone as everything they touch turns to gold. This is a team who have been creating a lot of opportunities but poor finishing has let them down, but Leeds United should be able to challenge a Newcastle United team who could be missing their first choice centre halves.

Like Friday night, I do think the visitors will play their part here against a Leeds United team that leave spaces behind them when they get forward.

I was tempted with picking Newcastle United to avoid a defeat here considering the lack of goals being scored by Leeds United, but they may need to score twice to do that if the home team get things right in the final third.

My feeling is that they will eventually do that, but I will look for a high-scoring game for the second time in a row at Elland Road.


Leicester City v Everton Pick: After impressive home wins this past weekend, Leicester City and Everton are sitting in the top seven places in the Premier League table.

Brendan Rodgers and Carlo Ancelotti will both believe they have a squad that can at least earn a place in Europe next season.

However I would suggest that Leicester City are in a slightly superior position of the two teams with their squad looking a little healthier all around.

I was concerned with the chances of Leicester City winning home games after their start to the Premier League season here, but they have built some momentum. Leicester City have won 5 of their last 6 games here in all competitions and they have kept clean sheets in each of those victories including a 3-0 win over Brighton on Sunday.

A fast start means the players should at least be rested for this fixture having had twenty-four hours less than Everton to prepare.

There have been signs that Everton are returning to their early season form and their 1-0 win over Chelsea will give the entire squad plenty of belief too. However I do think they are not the same team without James Rodriguez, who is a doubt for the game, and Lucas Digne's absence means there is an imbalance at the back.

I do think Everton can cause problems, but Leicester City should have spaces to exploit and James Maddison and Jamie Vardy can build on their Sunday performance.

It should be a decent game of football with both teams looking to earn the three points and so taking some chances to get forward. The recent form of Leicester City looks encouraging ahead of two very big games against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, and I do think they can edge to a victory against an Everton team who have not been picking up the best away results in the last month.


Fulham v Brighton Pick: If Fulham had shown even a little more cutting edge on Sunday they would have beaten Liverpool and it needed a somewhat controversial Penalty to prevent them winning that fixture.

In recent weeks Scott Parker has to be given credit for turning around Fulham's form and the team certainly look more capable of surviving at this level. They have used pace in the final third to become much more threatening going forward and there are small signs that Fulham are getting things right defensively.

A home game against Brighton has to be targeted as one that they have to win if they are going to avoid the drop, but the visitors are a team who can be hard to predict.

Graham Potter's men were dismissed in the first half at Leicester City on Sunday, but they have rarely produced back to back disappointing efforts. Once again Brighton are finding it difficult to balance their attacking and defensive responsibilities though and I do think this could be a highly competitive fixture.

I am surprised to see Fulham down as the home underdog with recent improved results in mind- they have not been the best at Craven Cottage, but Brighton can't really say they are playing up to the level of recent visitors to this ground so I would be surprised if the home team lose.

With that in mind I am simply not quite convinced about which Brighton will show up- at their best they could win here like they did at Aston Villa, but a lack of goals has to be a concern. Fulham also don't score as many goals as their recent play has deserved, but I do think the home team are the more likely winners of the fixture.

However there look to be better options out there during the week even though the 2/1 shout on Fulham will tempt a few in I'm sure.


Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There are going to be 2000 fans at Anfield for Liverpool's home fixture with Tottenham Hotspur and it should be a time for reflection after news of Gerard Houllier's passing on Monday.

The Frenchman had a huge impact in his time managing Liverpool at the turn of the Century and the fans and players will spend some time remembering him.

After that the focus will have to turn to try and win this Premier League game as Liverpool play this top of the table clash with Tottenham Hotspur.

Recent form has seen Liverpool doing enough to get through games, but they have not been dominant and I think that will give Tottenham Hotspur a chance here. A late Penalty helped Liverpool earn a point at Fulham on Sunday, but it does mean they have not scored more than a single goal in 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions.

Fatigue may be an issue or it may be the injuries at the back meaning they don't want to take as many risks going forward, but Liverpool have not conceded more than a single goal in any of their last 5 games. Finding the balance is the challenge for Jurgen Klopp and particularly against his opposite number.

I think you would have to be living under a rock if you are not sure how Jose Mourinho is going to approach this game- in recent games against Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal we have seen Tottenham Hotspur looking to counter attack and defending in numbers and clean sheets in all 3 of those suggests Mourinho has been justified in setting up his team in the manner he has.

However it didn't work on Sunday as Tottenham Hotspur conceded late in their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace and this time Mourinho was not happy with the lack of control his team displayed.

Despite the points picked up against those three opponents I mentioned, Tottenham Hotspur have not been creating a lot of chances. They did manage a total of four in those three games, but it was clinical finishing rather than the number of opportunities created which helped Tottenham Hotspur score their goals and I think Mourinho will be looking to employ the counter in this one.

It may be successful, but I also think it may mean a fixture where we don't see a lot of goals.

In recent Liverpool games goals have not exactly been flowing, while Tottenham Hotspur have played low-scoring games in each of their last 5 Premier League fixtures. Defensively Spurs should be difficult to break down, but I don't think they will be taking too many risks in the opposite direction either.

Goals have tended to be flying when these teams have met in recent seasons at Anfield, but the sole Jurgen Klopp versus Jose Mourinho Liverpool versus Tottenham Hotspur game ended with a single strike. One goal may be enough for either to win this and I do think the layers may be underestimating the chance of this being a relatively low-scoring fixture.


West Ham United v Crystal Palace Pick: After having 2000 fans back in to see their last home Premier League game, West Ham United would have been hoping to have the same for this London derby.

However things have changed which means we are back to playing behind closed doors, but both West Ham United and Crystal Palace could entertain those who have to watch from home.

David Moyes and Roy Hodgson may be described as managers that will set their teams up to be well organised, but in recent games both West Ham United and Crystal Palace have been creating chances going forward.

At the same time neither has been particularly solid defensively and I do think we are going to see a decent game of football here. Both teams have allowed opponents to create some good chances against them and we should see goals between these clubs.

5 of the last 7 between these clubs have ended with at least three goals shared out including both last season. 5 of the last 6 hosted by West Ham United have done the same and there is every chance that both teams will score with an early one really opening the fixture up.

Goals are not really a huge feature of Crystal Palace games, but I do think they could have successes in this fixture with Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke looking dangerous in the last couple of games. The layers are not convinced, but recent fixtures played by West Ham United and Crystal Palace suggests there will be at least three goals in this game on Wednesday evening.


Aston Villa v Burnley Pick: Both Aston Villa and Burnley had impressive 0-1 wins in the Premier League this past weekend and they should have had plenty of time to prepare for this fixture.

There isn't much of a turnaround to the next set of Premier League fixtures, but the focus has to be on this one on Thursday as both teams look to build some momentum heading into a very busy festive period.

Playing at Villa Park has been far from easy for Aston Villa in recent weeks and they have lost all 3 games here since beating Liverpool 7-2. They have been scoring goals and creating chances, but Aston Villa have been defending poorly and that has to be a concern for them.

However I am not sure Burnley are going to expose those defensive vulnerabilities of the home team having scored a single goal in 4 away Premier League games.

Sean Dyche's men have long over-performed the underlying stats and that has to be respected- what I mean when I say that is that Burnley have tended to be resilient and keep themselves in matches even when teams are seemingly creating a lot of chances against them and that has allowed them to pick up some surprising results.

Burnley have only lost 1 of their last 5 Premier League games, but the opponent have had the majority of chances in 4 of those games. Aston Villa are likely to be the latest to do that, but they have also been scoring enough goals to believe they can punish Burnley if the visitors are still giving up as many opportunities as they have been.

Last season Aston Villa scored twice in both Premier League fixtures against Burnley and I think they will be able to manage that here. Burnley did come back twice at Villa Park to earn a 2-2 draw, but they have not been creating a lot of chances of late and I am not sure they have two goals in them this time.

Backing Aston Villa to win a game featuring at least two goals looks the play here in what could be a decent watch for the neutrals.


Sheffield United v Manchester United Pick: A draw against Manchester City has to be largely accepted as a decent result in most circumstances, but the Manchester United performance was not the best on Saturday.

Coming days after the Champions League exit it felt like the manager was a little unsure about taking risks to win the game and Manchester United created very few chances.

A positive is that they didn't really give up a lot either and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be looking for Manchester United to ease some pressure on him by winning yet another away Premier League game. They have won their last 9 on their travels in the League and Manchester United have scored a host of goals in those games, although one concern remains the fact they have continued to fall behind before fighting back.

It would be a big disappointment if Manchester United had to do that at Bramall Lane on Thursday when taking on a Sheffield United team that seem to be lacking any confidence.

A 3-0 defeat at Southampton means Sheffield United have lost 7 Premier League games in a row and they are rooted to the bottom of the table and expected to be sitting there on Christmas Day. Chris Wilder has really turned the fortunes of the club in his time in charge, but it is looking beyond him this season and the big question is do the Sheffield United board make a change to try and reverse the form.

Sheffield United have been better at home, but they are lacking goals and simply not defending as well as they did last season.

A better, more organised defence conceded three times in both Premier League games against Manchester United last season and the amount of goals Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team have been scoring away from home has to be a major concern for The Blades.

Teams are creating chances against Sheffield United and Manchester United are doing the same away from home in the League. They have even managed to score at least twice at Paris Saint-Germain and Leipzig in the Champions League and I do think Manchester United will be too good on the day.

Sheffield United have been tougher to score against here, but a lot of that has to do with some poor final third play from Manchester City and West Ham United. Those teams had the chance to match the two goals that Leicester City scored here with a better performance in the final third and I do think Manchester United have shown they have played better away from Old Trafford.

There may be a few goals on Thursday night, but the majority should go for Manchester United in another away win.

MY PICKS: Wolves-Chelsea Both Teams to Score- NO
Manchester City-West Brom First Goal Before 21 Minutes
Leeds United-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals
West Ham United-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals
Aston Villa & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 13
The week could have been better, but then again it could have been a lot worse after putting up 61 points in GameWeek 12 of the Fantasy Football game.

My decision to replace Harry Kane with Patrick Bamford was not one that worked to be honest, although it has meant I am able to at least replace Diogo Jota this week and with plenty of options available.

In fact I have enough money to purchase anyone outside of the top four Midfield options and so there are plenty of choices to be made- initially my idea was to bring in another Manchester City asset considering the good looking fixture list they have, but rotation is always a worry with Pep Guardiola and the schedule is not ideal especially not the Boxing Day (26th) and Monday (28th) coming up in the next couple of weeks.

Heung-Min Son continues to overperform and could be a valuable asset once Tottenham Hotspur get through their next couple of games, but the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford also look like good choices even though Manchester United have been hit or miss all season.

I did consider options further down the list with Pascal Gross now on Penalties for Brighton, a team who have a good looking set of games coming up beginning with Fulham on Wednesday.

With a Tuesday deadline fast approaching a decision will have to be made soon, but I am definitely going to be removing Jota who has been ruled out for up to two months.


So I have begun to do some potential research on GW18 already and that is because it is a midweek round of fixtures that are seemingly going to be split before and after GW19.

What is the importance of that? For any Fantasy player it should be the ring, ring, ring of a Double GameWeek and a Blank GameWeek in the relatively early part of the season.

In recent seasons we have mainly had to wait until March before the first really big Double GameWeek is in play, but the press release from the media suggests GW18 will be split in half with five games played in that round and a further five played the week after.

It will mean for ten teams there is a Double GameWeek in play and I can imagine managers looking at their Bench Boost and Triple Captain chips while salivating about the prospect of a monster week.

After looking at the FA Cup Third Round fixtures and assuming the GW will be split in half, my feeling is that these are the fixtures that will be played in GW18 and those that will be pushed back into the GW19 Double anticipated.

(Disclaimer: I am guessing here, but the January fixture announcement is fast approaching and we may have a real schedule sooner than we think. Also remember GW18 is in the midweek between the FA Cup Third Round and next set of Premier League fixtures in GW19).

GW18
Fulham vs Manchester United (Both play FA Cup games on Saturday)
Sheffield United vs Newcastle United (Both play FA Cup games on Saturday)
Wolves vs Everton (Home team play on Friday in the Cup, Everton on Saturday lunchtime)
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace (Arsenal play Saturday, Palace play Friday)
Liverpool vs Burnley (Home team play on Friday, Burnley on Saturday).


GW19
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs play on Sunday in the FA Cup)
Leicester vs Chelsea (Away team play their FA Cup tie on a Sunday)
Leeds vs Southampton (Leeds play their FA Cup tie on Sunday)
Man City vs Brighton (Both teams play on Sunday in the Cup)
West Ham vs West Brom (Already been announced to be moved to the midweek of GW19)


Now I could be wrong in the assumption that the schedule will be split exactly in half (although I wouldn't understand if it wasn't) and obviously the way I've split the fixtures is my guess with the FA Cup fixtures scheduled as they are.

It would mean DGW19 is the biggest one we will have in the Fantasy game this season, although much will depend on the FA Cup draws further down the line with the Quarter Final and Semi Final dates clashing with Premier League games currently in place.


I don't believe we are going to have a DGW for those clubs that are going to reach the League Cup Final though- my reason for that is that there is a midweek free between the scheduled date of the League Cup Final and the next set of Premier League fixtures and with at least one of those Finalists expected to be involved in European action there won't be much time to reschedule their League fixture further down the line and especially not if those same clubs have strong FA Cup runs.

We will know a lot more about that over the next month though and so I am not concerning myself about those fixtures in late February through to mid-April just yet.


Three games have yet to be played from the Premier League schedule up to this point- Aston Villa, Burnley, Manchester City and Manchester United all were missing in action in GW1, while the Aston Villa vs Newcastle United game is the only one that has yet to be postponed due to the Covid-10 pandemic.

If the split is how I have put together then it is unlikely that the Aston Villa vs Newcastle United game will be played in January, but it is a potential DGW candidate for late February/early March. Neither team is in Europe so there is a possibility it could be moved to an early kick off slot in one of those midweeks too, but this is definitely an extra DGW fixture.

The key for us players will be whether they have two good looking fixtures to want to double or treble up players, but I doubt that will be the case for Newcastle United players and my team at any time this season. I have already had a triple Aston Villa approach and I think their players could be mainstays in the squad despite the difficult fixtures coming up.


While the Aston Villa vs Newcastle United game has a number of slots in which it could be placed, that is not the case for the Manchester City vs Aston Villa and Burnley vs Manchester United fixtures.

Both Manchester clubs are still in the League Cup so there is a real possibility they will have another postponement when the League Cup Final is played in late February, and both are involved in Europe and have had deep FA Cup runs in recent years.

The point? I am not sure they can really wait too long to make up those GW1 fixtures which were postponed.

Again I am only assuming my fixture split is something like what we will see in early January, but if those do come out that way there is the possibility of Manchester City vs Aston Villa landing in GW18 and Burnley vs Manchester United landing in GW19.

Neither Manchester club will be happy they are still playing every few days through January and not earning the break that others may enjoy, but it may also present the best chance to make up for postponed games. That is especially the case this season where you don't want to leave too many games for the end of the season as postponements through Covid-19 can't be dismissed even though it has not had a deep effect on the fixtures to this point.


For those who have kept their first Wild Card it is possible to prepare for the split of GW18 better than those of us who can't, but I am not planning on doing too much with my team.

At this stage there is no need to think too hard about those fixtures until they are confirmed, but I am hopeful that we will get the January fixtures sooner than later. I could suggest the Free Hit being a potential play, but I would rather hold onto that until later in the season barring more than 50% of the Premier League clubs being knocked out of the FA Cup before the Fifth Round.

At least two are going out in the Third Round, and we will get the draw for the Fourth Round before GW18 is set to be played which may change direction for my approach towards it. However I do think it will be possible to take some short-term pain with long-term gain in mind.

As we move through the festive period I am sure I will address this again.

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