Week 16 NFL Picks will be placed in this thread across the weekend. Merry Christmas to all those celebrating this weekend, even if we are not doing that in the usual way.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The feeling was that the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings meeting in Week 15 was going to be an important one in determining which of those teams would miss out on the PlayOffs. Both may eventually do that, but the losing team was going to be dropping to two games below 0.500 and in a loaded NFC that is a difficult place to be with two games left.
The upset home defeat to the Bears means it is Minnesota who have been left at 6-8 and it is going to take something miraculous for the Vikings to return to the PlayOffs.
In Week 16 they face the New Orleans Saints who won't have forgotten about the PlayOff defeat to Minnesota in this Stadium last year and who have previously been beaten by the Vikings in the post-season on a 'miracle' play at the end of the game. That should focus the Saints, but the two losses in a row to the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will only have underlined the need to turn things around.
Those losses look like they will cost the Saints the chance to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but Sean Payton will be keen for his team to at least go into the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs with some momentum in a couple of weeks time. Having Drew Brees is a boost for the team at Quarter Back, and I expect the veteran Quarter Back to find a way to get the better of the banged up Minnesota Defensive unit.
Drew Brees won't be throwing to Michael Thomas in the remainder of the regular season, but the Saints have yet to clinch the NFC South and I do think there are Receivers who have shown they can step up in Thomas' absence already this season. After a slow start last week, Brees found a rhythm at Quarter Back and that should mean Alvin Kamara is a bigger threat than he has been in recent weeks.
It will help New Orleans that they can ask Kamara and Latavius Murray to carry them towards success in this one with the Minnesota Defensive Line struggling to clamp down on the run. Keeping the Saints in front of the chains should make Drew Brees' life much easier in throwing the ball against the Vikings and a limited Minnesota pass rush should mean the Quarter Back has enough time to make his plays down the field and put up some points.
While the game is close I do think there is every chance that Minnesota can stay with the Saints and that is largely down to the fact that Dalvin Cook has been running the ball very well for them. The Running Back should be able to establish the run in this game as New Orleans have just struggled to contain the ground game in recent weeks and Cook will give the Vikings a chance to keep the New Orleans Offensive unit on the sidelines as they extend drives.
Moving the ball on the ground will also be a huge boost for Kirk Cousins at Quarter Back who has had his moments in the regular season, but who has also struggled for consistency. Making sure he is not having to hold onto the ball for too long will be huge for the Offensive Line who have struggled in pass protection and that is why Cook will be a hugely important weapon for Minnesota this week.
Any time the Vikings get behind the chains there will be issues for Kirk Cousins though and that will largely come from the pressure that is going to be in his face. He does have a couple of top Receivers that can make plays for him, but consistency may be an issue and it is very important for Minnesota to stay with New Orleans.
You have to respect the Vikings who are well Coached and they do have a tendency to perform well as the underdog. However they were blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I do think the New Orleans Saints will be able to take advantage of any disappointment in the visiting locker room after basically being eliminated from the post-season last week.
The Saints were beaten by the Vikings in the PlayOffs as a similar sized favourite at home last season, but I think Drew Brees and company will have a better balance Offensively than Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook may provide and that could prove to be the difference on the day. A couple of big plays from the Saints Defensive Line should swing this game in their favour and I think New Orleans will cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The season is already over for the Detroit Lions and they will be thinking ahead to the off-season and bringing in some new faces to turn this franchise around. Darrell Bevell continues what is effectively a job interview, but the Lions have not really responded to him as he may have wished and I do think the Lions will be looking to bring in a new Head Coach and General Manager.
At 5-9 you do have to wonder how motivated the Detroit Lions are going to be, but that won't be an issue for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tom Brady's arrival in this part of Florida has sparked the Buccaneers, although they have perhaps not been as good as so many thought they would be. Bruce Arians and Brady have not always been on the same page and that has raised some tensions, but the Buccaneers can still win the NFC South if they win both remaining games and the New Orleans Saints were to lose both games.
The more immediate concern for Tampa Bay is simply securing a PlayOff spot and they can do that with a victory on Boxing Day. Ronald Jones will be absent, but the Buccaneers should still be able to establish the run and that is important for their Quarter Back as it really opens up the playbook when they are moving the ball on the ground.
I do think the Buccaneers can do that and Tom Brady should really be able to expose the Detroit Secondary especially with the limited pass rush that has been generated by the Lions. With time Brady has some top Receiving threats that will win their battles and the Buccaneers should be able to move the ball pretty consistently through the course of this Week 16 game.
If the Lions were fully healthy and motivated I would have little doubt that they could have some successes Offensively too, but there has to be question marks about this team. For starters the season is over for the Lions and secondly Matthew Stafford is very much banged up and that is not ideal for the home team.
The Detroit Offensive Line has struggled to open holes for their Running Backs on the ground all season and that has been the case recently too. This means it is hard to imagine the Lions being in third and short spots too often and instead they are going to have to rely on the passing game to keep the chains moving and that means needing a healthy Quarter Back.
Matthew Stafford has shown throughout his career that he is a very capable performer, but being banged up behind this Offensive Line means he really doesn't want to be playing in obvious passing down and distance. That is especially the case when you think of the pressure that Tampa Bay have generated from their Defensive Line when pinning back their ears and getting after the Quarter Back and I do think the Lions will have some problems.
I do think the Buccaneers will need to see a big improvement from their Secondary if they are going to have a deep run in the PlayOffs, but in this game I think the Lions might not be able to capitalise as they may have done if Stafford was fully healthy. Even then he would have been without Kenny Golladay and the Lions passing game is not as strong in his absence.
There will be moments from Matthew Stafford, but I am not sure he lasts the entire sixty minutes on Boxing Day. Chase Daniels is a capable back up Quarter Back, but I think between the two there will be issues moving the ball as consistently as Detroit will need to keep up with the Buccaneers in this one.
Detroit are 6-13 against the spread in their last nineteen games as the underdog, while the blow out loss to the Tennessee Titans suggests they may have called time on the season.
It is a big spread without a doubt, especially for a road team to cover, but Tampa Bay look like they can score enough points to make it hard for Detroit to keep up on the scoreboard. The Buccaneers may need a late stop Defensively to prevent a backdoor cover from Matthew Stafford, but they could just as easily knock him out of the game and win comfortably moving away from their hosts.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: A win on Saturday will confirm that there will be PlayOff Football for the Arizona Cardinals next month, but anything else is going to leave them wondering if they have left the door open to other teams.
They have a home game against an eliminated Divisional rival, but one that has used this Stadium for home games over the last month so the San Francisco 49ers should be very comfortable in the surroundings. Being eliminated is a blow to the Super Bowl representatives for the NFC last season, but there should be a motivation to play spoiler for others within the Division in the remaining two weeks of the season.
Like for much of this season, San Francisco are banged up heading into Week 16 of the regular season. Jimmy Goroppolo has missed much of the year at Quarter Back and he is unlikely to be rushed back even though he is eligible to come off the IR this week.
That could mean the 49ers are down to a third string Quarter Back after Nick Mullens suffered an injury in Week 15 and it is almost certain that CJ Beathard will be given the opportunity for them. Some skill players are missing for the 49ers which makes it hard to believe they can move the ball consistently and that has to be the biggest worry on this side of the ball.
George Kittle is eligible to play, but Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert are both absent and I do think that takes away some of the San Francisco play-making talent on the Offensive side of the ball. They would likely have had some difficulties running the ball anyway, but losing a player like Samuel who can run the ball from sweep plays and make some big catches for the Quarter Back is much more difficult to cover up.
If Mullens was playing I do think there would be a reason to believe San Francisco would have success moving the ball, but CJ Beathard is hard to trust as would any third string Quarter Back. There are some spaces to attack in the Arizona Secondary, but Beathard may not expose those as much as other Quarter Backs could have done.
Instead the 49ers will have to lean on the Defensive unit to keep them in this game and I do think they match up pretty well with the Cardinals Offense. Kyler Murray is a very important player for the Cardinals, but he might be forced to rely on his arm in this one more than his legs as the 49ers Defensive Line have stiffened and clamped down on the run.
That may see the Cardinals having to make plays from third and long spots at times, but Murray should be able to target DeAndre Hopkins with successes in this one. However, he could be without Dan Arnold and Larry Fitzgerald on Saturday and that will just make things a little more difficult for Arizona when it comes to consistent drives ending with Touchdowns rather than having to settle for Field Goals
Games between these Divisional rivals have been very competitive in recent years and I do think this has the makings of one too.
The 49ers are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games as the road underdog, while Arizona are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite.
The road team is also 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine in this series and I will look to take the points in this one.
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: For the second season in a row, a late season collapse has cost the Las Vegas Raiders a place in the PlayOffs and they can only look to play spoiler through the remaining two weeks of the season. The Raiders have dropped four of their last five games to slip back to 7-7 and even though they are mathematically alive, the chances of making the post-season under Jon Gruden have all but disappeared in the 2020 season.
They will be hosting the 9-5 Miami Dolphins who have once again overachieved under Brian Flores who has to be given more time to keep the progression going under his watch. The Head Coach has been an excellent capture by the Miami Dolphins and another high pick in the NFL Draft is coming up thanks to the strong trade performances over the last couple of years.
While they control their own destiny, the likelihood is that the Dolphins have to win out if they are going to reach the post-season and that means beating two teams that do not have losing records. This looks to be the 'easier' of the two games left on the schedule, although the Miami Dolphins might be hoping the Buffalo Bills have nothing to play for in Week 17 when they are set to face the AFC East Champions Elect.
For now Brian Flores will be trying to focus the players on the task in hand and that means overcoming some injury concerns which have just hit the team in recent weeks. Offensively the Dolphins could be without Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker in Week 16 and that would be a huge blow to Tua Tagovailoa despite the obvious improvements the rookie Quarter Back is making in each passing week.
The match up does look like one that Tagovailoa can take advantage of, but it won't be up to the Quarter Back alone. For starters he will have Myles Gaskin back in the backfield and coupled with Salvon Ahmed this is a big opportunity for the Miami Dolphins to control the clock with some huge gains on the ground.
Neither player may be considered amongst the best in the NFL at the Running Back position, but both play hard and the Miami Offensive Line has been bullying opponents up front. Add in the fact that there have been signs of real wear and tear on the Las Vegas Defensive Line and I think the Dolphins can hand the ball off to either Running Back and make sure the Offensive unit is in front of the chains.
That will open things up for Tua Tagovailoa who is capable with his legs, but who has begun to look comfortable throwing the ball at the pro level. The Quarter Back is facing a banged up Secondary and the lack of pressure generated by the Raiders pass rush should mean he is able to make some big plays down the field, while Tagovailoa will be even stronger if one or both of Parker and Gesicki line up.
There has been extra time for the Las Vegas Raiders to prepare for this game and it looks like it will be enough for Derek Carr to be passed fit to return at Quarter Back. He played one series last week before being knocked out of the eventual defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers, but Derek Carr has practiced this week and will likely be given the starting role despite the strong outing from Marcus Mariota.
If Mariota is given the start you could see the Raiders having more success running the ball as his own wheels have to be respected, but otherwise it could be a really difficult time for Las Vegas. Josh Jacobs is a very good Running Back, but he has not been at full strength of late and the Offensive Line have not been able to really open the kind of holes they had been managing earlier in the season.
Failing to run the ball will put a lot of pressure on whoever begins at Quarter Back because the Miami Secondary is filled with talented players. In recent weeks we have seen the Dolphins pass rush really pick up the pace, but protecting the Quarter Back has been a strength for the Raiders although that doesn't mean they will sustain drives against this tough Defensive unit.
The numbers produced by Derek Carr suggests he will have his moments in this one, but the Miami Defense is better than the ones that Carr has faced in recent games and that is important to note.
Miami are 5-0-1 against the spread in the last six games against the Raiders.
The Raiders have struggled down the stretch and have not covered in four straight games and effectively being eliminated on the final play in Week 15 might have dented all confidence or motivation. It hasn't been often I've believed in Miami to win a road game as a favourite, but I think that is what we will see in Sin City in Week 16 as the PlayOff hopes go into the final game of the regular season.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Pick: It is only the second time since the Cleveland Browns have been reformed that the franchise have finished with at least ten wins and they can return to the PlayOffs for the first time in eighteen years by winning in Week 16. They actually failed to reach the post-season when finishing with ten wins in 2007, but the Browns control their own destiny and there is still an opportunity for them to win the AFC North with a strong end to the season.
Not many would have expected that when the Pittsburgh Steelers opened the season with an 11-0 record, but three losses in a row for the Steelers coupled with the Browns winning five of their last six has just opened the door. If the Browns win in Week 16 and the Steelers lose, Cleveland will be hosting Pittsburgh in Week 17 with a PlayOff spot locked up and the chance to win the Division.
That has to be encouraging for the Browns who head into this game as a big favourite against the one-win New York Jets. However that win was secured by the Jets in Week 15 and one that may have the fanbase tearing out their hair as it means the Jets could miss out on the Number 1 Pick in the Draft when Trevor Lawrence looks the clear selection for any team in that position.
It might have revitalised the franchise, but the Jets look more banged up this week and upsetting the odds two weeks in a row is a big ask. There are also rumours that Adam Gase will be relieved as Head Coach on Monday if the Jets were to lose in Week 16 and that may see some of the players begin to down tools now they are avoiding a winless season.
The Jets have struggled Offensively all season which is a devastating indictment of the Head Coach who has been considered an Offensive mind. They may have some success running the ball in Week 16 against the Cleveland Defensive Line which has just been a little banged up of late, but you couldn't really have a lot of faith in veteran Frank Gore to find the holes consistently as he reaches the twilight of his career.
It is all so important for the Jets to establish the run and make sure Sam Darnold is playing in front of the sticks, but any time the home team are in third and long it is going to be difficult for the Quarter Back. Time has not been given to him by the Offensive Line and the Browns do get after the opposition Quarter Back and that may protect a Secondary which has given up some big plays.
Ultimately it is hard to trust this New York Offensive unit to do enough to challenge Cleveland on this side of the ball and they will not be helped by the injuries on the Defensive side either.
No one will deny it is difficult to believe in the Browns as a big favourite on the road and especially as they only won by 2 points at the Jacksonville Jaguars a few weeks ago. Some of that is down to the inconsistent performances from Baker Mayfield, although we have seen some of the best from him in recent games that will encourage Cleveland fans as we approach the post-season.
The Cleveland Offensive Line is one of the strengths of the whole team, but they will be looking to establish themselves in the trenches more than they have in recent games. With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield, Cleveland will expect to run the ball and put their Quarter Back in a strong position to make plays even without Odell Beckham Jr in the line up.
They look like being helped by further injuries on the New York Defensive Line and I do think both Chubb and Hunt will have strong outings. Both can also be key in the passing game as they provide a safety blanket for Baker Mayfield who should be given enough time to expose the Jets Secondary which has been struggling.
A lame duck Head Coach and climbing down from the emotion of winning a first game in 2020 is going against the Jets here as well as the injuries that have piled up at the end of a long season.
Cleveland do struggle massively as a road favourite when it comes to covering the spread, but the favourite is 10-1 against the spread in the last eleven between these Conference rivals and I think the Browns may be able to do enough for a late cover.
Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: The situation has really cleared up for the Jacksonville Jaguars- lose both remaining games and they are going to end up with the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft next year and that will likely mean the start of the recovery of the franchise. With Trevor Lawrence coming into the pro ranks, the obvious franchise Quarter Back will be sitting there for the Jaguars who have been given this opportunity thanks to the New York Jets win in Week 15.
Most professional players still have some pride, but the Jaguars have looked really bad the last couple of weeks as they have been blown out by the Tennessee Titans and the Baltimore Ravens. Even the return of Gardner Minshew at Quarter Back was unable to spark the Jaguars and you do have to wonder what their motivation will be in a non-Conference game with two weeks left of the regular season.
Motivation for the Chicago Bears will be easy to find as they control their own destiny as far as the PlayOffs go.
It has been a season of streaks for the Bears who have won two in a row just as it looked like 2020 would be a lost season and much of that has to be down to Mitchell Trubisky who has shown he is more than a bust at Quarter Back. No one associated with the Chicago Bears will be willing to put their neck on the line that Trubisky has finally got it, but the Quarter Back has really sparked the Bears and that has to be respected.
Injuries to the Jacksonville Defensive unit should make things easier for Trubisky, although the Chicago Offensive Line will be looking to put the game on their back. They have really begun to dominate the trenches of late and opened up some big holes for David Montgomery who has been playing at a very high level in the last few games.
I expect David Montgomery to have a very strong day running the ball and that should put the Bears in front of the down and distance and allow Mitchell Trubisky to hit some of his Receivers that have also stepped up their play. Allen Robinson is returning to Jacksonville and I expect him to have a strong game as the Bears move the ball up and down the field without too many issues.
The injuries on the Defensive side of the ball will be hurting Jacksonville, but they may also be without James Robinson who has played really well at Running Back for them. It could mean the Jaguars do have an issue running the ball consistently and that will mean leaning on Minshew at Quarter Back to throw the ball against what has been a banged up Secondary.
Gardner Minshew has shown he can do that and Jacksonville have Receivers who can make plays, but the Quarter Back is also likely going to be dealing with a strong Chicago pass rush and that can lead to mistakes.
Turnovers could really help the Bears pull away in this one and I do think they can be backed even though Chicago are another poor road favourite to back when it comes to covering marks.
However I haven't seen much fight from Jacksonville over the last two weeks and those were against Conference and Divisional rivals so I am not expecting a lot more from them here. The final game is against the Indianapolis Colts which may be the more important game left for the Jaguars and I expect a motivated Chicago Bears team to win well and then hope the Green Bay Packers clinch the Number 1 Seed in the NFC later in the day.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: There isn't anything but Divisional pride on the line for two franchises that are hoping 2021 will bring much better than 2020. At least the Los Angeles Chargers know the direction the team are heading in under rookie Quarter Back Justin Herbert, while the Denver Broncos might have lost faith in Drew Lock and could be looking for a new Quarter Back in the next NFL Draft.
Both teams are at 5-9 on the season and this game is as much to do with Draft positioning as anything else, although the Chargers have some momentum behind them. Los Angeles have won back to back games, while the Broncos have lost three of their last four as injuries have piled up on both sides of the ball.
The Chargers should also be playing with some motivation of wanting revenge against the Broncos who had a massive comeback to win the first of the Divisional games between these teams this season. It was part of a number of late sloppy play which cost Los Angeles a few wins and that should at least make Herbert and company more interested on the field to make sure they can show what they have learnt.
This should be an opportunity for Justin Herbert and the entire Offensive unit considering how Denver have declined through the injuries on the Defensive side of the ball. The Defensive Line has allowed an eye-watering 6.6 yards per carry on average in their last three games and teams have been able to pile up the yards on the ground which has just opened up a Secondary missing some important players.
While I am not sure that the Chargers can take full advantage of the ground game, they should at least offer Justin Herbert the chance to play from third and manageable spots and that is where the rookie Quarter Back can have a very strong outing. Last week he was very good against the Las Vegas Raiders having led the Chargers to consecutive wins and there isn't expected to be a very ferocious pass rush to disrupt drives.
I fully expect Justin Herbert to have a very good day and that is going to have to be matched by Drew Lock if the Broncos are going to beat Los Angeles for a second time in 2020.
As injuries have begun to clear up on the Chargers Defensive Line, the team have been able to clamp down on the run and doing that here will put a lot of pressure on Lock at Quarter Back. The Broncos will feel they can establish the run while the game is close, but the improvements shown by Los Angeles should make it very difficult for the Broncos to sustain drives and find Touchdowns instead of Field Goals or Punts.
Denver do have a very good record in recent years against the Chargers, but I think the home team are the right play here.
I have to respect the fact that the Broncos have been a very good road underdog to back and they do tend to bounce back from sub-par efforts, but Denver look banged up and I think the Los Angeles Chargers can ride their momentum to a win and a cover.
Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Both of these teams are looking very likely to be playing in the PlayOffs next month, but there is still a lot on the line despite being a non-Conference game. The Green Bay Packers are still working towards the Number 1 Seed in the NFC which will give them the sole Bye in this Conference, while the Tennessee Titans are trying to win the AFC South and earning at least one home game in the post-season.
The two teams have some solid momentum behind them with the Packers having won four in a row to move to the top of the NFC, while the Titans have won four of their last five to narrowly lead the AFC South.
On Sunday Night Football we should see plenty of strong Offensive play when these teams meet each other and I do think having the hook over the key number 3 will be huge for the road team.
Last week we saw the Green Bay Packers Offense just lose their way in the second half against the Carolina Panthers, but they have still be producing a huge effort behind Aaron Rodgers. You would imagine a bounce back from the whole team when going up against this Tennessee Defensive unit which has really struggled to stop teams throughout the year and especially more so in recent games.
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams should be able to put the Offensive unit on their back if that is what the Packers want and they have combined to really make this team dangerous on the ground. That will at least get the Titans guessing about what is to come, but the Offensive Line is still a little banged up and so it is also important for the Green Bay Packers to make sure Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a clean sheet.
There will not be a massive concern about that because the Titans have gotten little pressure up front and I do think the Green Bay Packers are going to be able to have a lot of success throwing the ball. Tennessee's lack of pressure up front means the banged up Secondary has been exposed and I would be surprised if Rodgers doesn't bounce back from what is a relatively weak Week 15 performance from the expected MVP of the League.
Green Bay should move the ball when they have it, but Tennessee are likely able to do the same with their own Offense finding a rhythm. Derrick Henry is the main threat, but the Titans Offensive Line and the powerful Running Back are still very difficult to stop despite teams knowing what they are going to face.
In recent seasons the Green Bay inability to slow the run has proven costly in the post-season and that has to be the concern for the Packers in this game and going into January. In recent games teams have shown they can run the ball against the Packers Defensive Line and I have no doubt that Henry will get plenty of carries to wear down Green Bay up front while cooling Rodgers down on the sidelines.
Establishing the run is huge for the Titans who will know that the Green Bay Secondary and the pass rush is the strength of the Packers Defensive unit. Doing so will just slow the pass rush and also have the Safeties and Linebackers edging closer to the line of scrimmage which will give Ryan Tannehill a chance to hit Corey Davis and AJ Brown down the field.
I do think the Titans are going to be able to move the chains Offensively and that is why I believe this will be a very competitive game with the hook over the key number being key. Both teams should score plenty of points and it does feel like a late Field Goal could decide this either way.
The Titans have been a strong road underdog to back under Head Coach Mike Vrabel and I do think his demands of his team will help them keep this close. Derrick Henry should be tough to clamp down and I think taking the points is the right play here.
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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