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Sunday, 3 January 2021

NFL Week 17 Picks 2020 (January 3rd)

All credit has to be given to the NFL for making it through to Week 17 of the regular season with little impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the games being played.

There have been moments, but the fact that no games have been cancelled is a testimony to the protocols put in place, although no one should take it for granted that the PlayOffs will go smoothly just because the last seventeen weeks have largely gone to plan.

Week 17 used to be a pretty boring one in the regular season, but changes to the scheduling has meant more Divisional Games have been placed in this week to make it more appealing. Add in the new NFL PlayOff format and there is plenty to achieve for many teams in Week 17 before we go into the first six game Wild Card Round in NFL history next weekend.


Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: We have reached that time of the NFL season when you have to consider the motivation of teams and players with the post-season and the end of the season in sight. Much depends on how the season has gone, but this is a game between two NFC South Divisional rivals which will bring its own motivations to the table.

The Atlanta Falcons know their season is coming to an end and the fan base might be hoping the team don't ruin their current Draft position by winning what is effectively a meaningless game. At the moment the 4-11 record will be good enough for a top four Draft position later on in the year and the fans can't even hope to play spoiler for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have secured their spot in the post-season.

The Buccaneers hold a 10-5 record and will be playing on the road on Wild Card Weekend, but they are currently the Number 5 Seed which means they will face the NFC East Champions who look like being the weakest of the home teams that are due to play next weekend. Securing that spot has to be important for Tampa Bay who will be looking to enter the post-season with some momentum as they look to become the first team in NFL history to play the Super Bowl in their home Stadium.

Bruce Arians does love seeing his teams throw the ball down the field, but we are heading into January and Tampa Bay need to find a way to run the ball better than they have been. Ronald Jones could be back for the Buccaneers, but this may be another tough outing for the Buccaneers Offensive Line which has been much stronger in pass protection than run blocking.

They are not likely to enjoy a lot of success against the Atlanta Defensive Line which has continued to play hard up front, but Tampa Bay will be comfortable with Tom Brady at Quarter Back especially if he is still playing in what is largely going to be a clean pocket. Many know the only way to rattle Brady is by getting him to feel the pass rush pressure, but it is not likely to be the case against the Falcons and I expect his Wide Receivers and Tight Ends to win their one on one battles and exploit the Atlanta Secondary.

Tom Brady and company should have no problem throwing the ball and Mike Evans is likely to have a big game as he will be targeted early and often.

It will mean there is some pressure on the Falcons to try and keep up on the scoreboard and that is a big challenge when there is nothing to really achieve for the players. Changes are likely coming with a new Head Coach expected to be hired and that might have players thinking ahead, while Julio Jones is not going to be risked as he looks for a healthier 2021.

Matt Ryan has to be wondering what the future holds for him at Quarter Back, but he may be asked to have at least one more big game if the Falcons are going to stay competitive. It is unlikely that Ryan will be given a lot of support from the run game which means he is going to have to drop back and take risks throwing into an improving Tampa Bay Secondary.

There are some spaces for him to exploit, I have no doubt about that, but Matty Ice does not have anything near the same protection as Tom Brady is going to enjoy at Quarter Back. The Falcons Offensive Line have not been able to keep Ryan upright and now they will be facing a Tampa Bay pass rush which has plenty of talent getting after the Quarter Back and I do think it will be a major factor in the outcome of this one.

I do have to respect the fact that the Falcons have performed well as the road underdog and they do have a Quarter Back capable of strong drives to keep this one close and perhaps even sneak through the back door. However I think the Week 17 situation may see Tampa Bay have too much as they look to close out the Number 5 Seed in the NFC and I will back them to cover the line as it remains under a key number.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: This Week 17 game does not mean very much to the Pittsburgh Steelers who have a 12-3 record, but who suffered a three game losing run last month which meant the Number 1 Seed was out of reach. They are confirmed in finishing either with the Number 2 or the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and the change in the PlayOff format means the Steelers will be playing as a host on Wild Card Weekend whether finishing second or third in the standings.

An unexpected cancellation of a game during the regular season meant the Steelers have had to play without a Bye Week in 2020 and so it is perhaps not a surprise that Mike Tomlin has elected to give his starters some rest. It has already been announced that Mason Rudolph will be playing at Quarter Back instead of Ben Roethlisberger and that is going to be a major storyline going into Week 17.

The last time Rudolph started against the Cleveland Browns in this Stadium it ended in a brawl and multiple suspensions in 2019, but both teams are playing things down and that is important for the Browns who need to produce a win.

A surprising loss to the New York Jets on a day when the Receivers were all isolating means Cleveland are still looking to lock up a PlayOff spot despite reaching ten wins already in 2020. The situation is in their own control as a win would be enough, but a defeat would leave the fans scrambling to hear how Indianapolis and the other teams around them are getting on.

Cleveland can't think too far ahead and they are expecting to have those missing Receivers back while also benefiting from the fact that the Steelers are not going to be playing their starters. There is every chance the Browns will be heading to Pittsburgh for the Wild Card Round and so they won't want to give too much away, but the team will also be aware that they can't afford to hold too much back and somehow miss the post-season.

With the expected changes that the Steelers are going to make, Cleveland should be able to have a relatively comfortable day moving the ball. The Pittsburgh schemes will make them solid enough Defensively, but ultimately they will likely be playing second and third string players and that should mean the Browns are able to move the ball and score enough points to win this one.

More importantly I do struggle to see how Pittsburgh will move the ball with any consistency as Mason Rudolph has proven to be little more than a backup. He really struggled to throw the ball against the Browns Secondary in their game last year and I do think Rudolph is going to have problems with the key Pittsburgh Receivers sitting down.

It is a very big spread, but Cleveland beat Pittsburgh by 14 points when facing Mason Rudolph last year. I think the Browns are going to use the motivation of facing a disliked Quarter Back to really rally them for this game as they look to lock down a PlayOff spot.

The Steelers have been a very good road underdog to back against the spread, but I think it will be hard to stay focused with the back ups out there. The Browns may need to stop a couple of late drives to avoid a backdoor cover and are likely to use vanilla Offensive play-calling if they get into a healthy lead which is a concern, but they should be able to win this one fairly comfortably on the day.


Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: At 6-5 the Baltimore Ravens had to be wondering if they were going to reach the PlayOffs, but a run of four straight wins means they have control of their own destiny. Beating the Cincinnati Bengals will be enough to secure the Ravens a spot in the Wild Card Round next weekend, but a defeat means they will be needing to work out the permutations to determine whether Baltimore will be playing more Football this season.

At this stage no one associated with the Ravens are going to be wondering about what happens if they lose- simply put Baltimore will feel they have more than enough to beat a banged up Bengals team despite the fact Cincinnati have won two in a row.

One of those was an upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers so the Bengals will need to be highly respected by the Ravens, although I do think Baltimore match up better than the Steelers. The main reason for that is while Pittsburgh have struggled to run the ball consistently, Baltimore have three players who have all had at least 600 yards on the ground this season and the Ravens Offensive Line should control this game.

It has been an issue for Cincinnati to stop the run and I don't think they are going to have much joy in this one. Lamar Jackson is capable of doing plenty of damage with his legs, but he has also shown improvements throwing down the field and with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown I do expect the Quarter Back to have success throughout this game whether running or throwing the ball.

With little pressure being generated by the Browns, Baltimore should have their way Offensively although there are bigger questions to answer on the other side of the ball. Injuries means the Ravens are short of some of their better Defenders and that could give the Bengals a chance to at least cover even if they come up short when it comes to winning the game.

Brandon Allen has played well enough at Quarter Back even it is clear that he is no Joe Burrow, but it will all come down to the back up because Cincinnati are unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball. Being behind the sticks does mean Allen is going to facing up to the Baltimore pass rush which has been able to generate plenty fo pressure, but the Secondary have given up some plays and that is where Brandon Allen can have some success.

An issue for the Quarter Back is that he could be without Tee Higgins in Week 17 after a strong rookie season from the Wide Receiver. That may make things a little more awkward for Cincinnati who have a chance for a backdoor cover, but who are facing a Baltimore team who have blown out those teams they are expected to beat.

The Ravens have covered spreads of 8.5 points and higher in three of their last four wins and they are 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the favourite. They are also 7-1 against the spread in their last eight when facing Divisional rivals and they are 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve on the road.

You have to respect the Bengals in how well they have played when set as the home underdog, but I think Baltimore will prove too much and find the big runs on the ground to pull clear and earn their Wild Card spot.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: Nothing can be decided about PlayOff spots in this big NFC East Week 17 game, but the losing team will know they are out of contention. Even the winning team will need to wait for Sunday Night Football and hope eliminated Philadelphia can beat the Washington Football Team which would send the winner of this one into the post-season.

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants are going into Week 17 in different moods too- the Cowboys have won three in a row when seemingly out of contention, but results have landed their way, while the New York Giants have lost three in a row and that might have been a costly losing run at this stage of the season.

Injuries have not helped either of these teams through 2020 but there are no excuses at this stage of the year and players will be looking to dig deep. Both could be missing some key players on Sunday too which will not help, but I do like the kind of rhythm that has been built up by the Cowboys even if they do end up coming up short when it comes to hosting a PlayOff game next weekend.

Andy Dalton has really offered the team a spark since returning from a concussion and he does look to be on the same page as his Wide Receivers which is going to be a huge part of this game. The Receivers are very, very talented and have been making plays for the Dallas Offensive unit, although they will be challenged by a New York Giants Secondary which is keeping the team in games.

There does look to be an opportunity for Ezekiel Elliot to make up for what has been a sub-par year as he will be given the ball to run against a Giants Defensive Line which has looked a little worn down in recent games. Tony Pollard is another who can come in and have success on the ground as well as a Receiver coming out of the backfield, and I think that will set Dalton up to have a decent game.

No one should doubt the Giants Secondary and their ability, but being in front of the chains gives Andy Dalton all of the Offensive options in the play book and that should mean the Cowboys are able to move the chains.

Injuries on the Defensive side of the ball should mean the New York Giants are feeling good about themselves when it comes to an Offensive bounce back week. Even then you can't ignore the fact that the Giants have not scored more than 13 points in any of their last 3 games as they have hit a losing run and some of that is down to the Quarter Back who has been slowed by issues with his body.

Daniel Jones has shown enough to have people in the organisation believing in him, but when he can't move as he would like it does make it very difficult to use his skills as you would like. The limitations have meant the Offensive Line have struggled to protect Jones and one aspect where the Cowboys have done well enough this season when it comes to the Defense is getting after the Quarter Back.

He won't be helped by the injuries to key Receivers, but Jones is hard to trust with his own issues and I think this is the main reason I believe the Giants will struggle as the home underdog.

We have seen teams run the ball all over Dallas all season and that may be the best bet for the Giants when it comes to the Offensive play-calling, but it would feel different if Saquon Barkley was healthy rather than Wayne Gallman. Even if Daniel Jones was healthier to offer a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position it may have been different, but that is not the case and I do think Dallas will have enough firepower to pull away and win this game.

The Cowboys have had the better of this rivalry of late with seven straight wins against the Giants and that may not be far from the minds of the players.

Dallas have not been a very good favourite or a road team to back, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when facing a team with a losing record.

The Giants are just 3-14 against the spread in their last seventeen as the home underdog and I think they will come up short here.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Things are going to look pretty clear for the Indianapolis Colts by the time they kick off in the late afternoon spot in Week 17 of the NFL season. The 10-5 Colts blew a big lead against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16 and that means they are no longer in control of their own destiny despite having every chance of finishing the year with eleven wins.

Ultimately they need to win and hope at least one of the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns or Tennessee Titans lose. By the time this game kicks off the first three of those teams would have completed their final regular season games, but the Colts will still look to play hard even if they have all won.

There is no doubt it would be deflating if the Wild Card spots are all locked up and you do have to wonder what the Colts will do if the Tennessee Titans are then up with a big lead at the Houston Texans in a game being played at the same time. Keeping the players focused on themselves will be the challenge for Head Coach Frank Reich and Indianapolis are big favourites to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars who have locked up the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft having won just one game all season.

The sole victory came against the Indianapolis Colts and the Jaguars can afford to play spoiler here which should motivate the players. However, it is hard to know how Jacksonville will flip the switch considering how uncompetitive they have been over their last three defeats and the decision to start Mike Glennon at Quarter Back has not gone down well.

Injuries have racked up on both sides of the ball and the Jaguars are going to be down their top Running Back and Wide Receiver in this game so it is very difficult to imagine Mike Glennon having consistent success. Running the ball against the Indianapolis Defensive Line has been very difficult in recent games and I am not sure the Quarter Back has the talent or the skill players to take advantage of the holes that have opened up in the Colts Secondary.

Mike Glennon could also face some pass rush pressure in this game and I do think the Jaguars will have a difficult time staying with the Indianapolis Colts who had been in good form before blowing their lead against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts will also have a motivated Quarter Back taking to the field as Philip Rivers could be playing his last professional game having admitted he will have to have a serious think about retirement in the off-season.

There is no doubt that Rivers is not the player he once was, but he has been efficient at Quarter Back and taken advantage of the strengths of the Indianapolis Offensive unit. A strong set of Running Backs have been able to produce some big gains behind this Offensive Line and the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are also capable as safety blankets for Rivers in the passing game.

With the Jacksonville Defensive unit banged up at all levels, even the shifting Indianapolis Offensive Line should be able to take advantage and help the Colts rip off some big gains. Being in front of the chains should also mean Philip Rivers can look to throw the ball down the field with a limited pressure around him and with his Receivers likely to win their battles against a banged up Secondary.

Indianapolis have had a really poor recent record against Jacksonville which is a concern, but I think it should also keep them focused. The Colts have also bounced back from losses as they have gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games following a defeat, while the Jaguars have been blown out as big underdogs in their last three games.

I do worry about a backdoor cover in this one, but I think the Indianapolis Colts have enough to cover as they look for revenge for an earlier defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars.


Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Pick: Like their AFC South rivals the Indianapolis Colts, the Tennessee Titans will be hoping at least one of the teams in the current Wild Card spots have lost earlier in the day. Somebody will be paying attention to the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns games that are being played in the early slot, but Mike Vrabel is a Head Coach who will be demanding his players to take their futures into their own hands.

The simple equation for the Tennessee Titans is winning this game and winning the AFC South Division which would mean hosting a PlayOff game next weekend. A defeat will open the door for the Indianapolis Colts and also leave the Titans vulnerable to missing the PlayOffs a season after reaching the AFC Championship Game.

Tennessee are big favourites to win here, but this is one of those games where the 'need' is shaping the spread rather than anything the Titans have done on the field. Last week they were blown out comfortably by the Green Bay Packers and there are some major questions about the Defensive unit that makes it hard to believe in them.

However you do have to wonder what kind of motivation we will see from the Houston Texans who have a 4-11 record, but who won't benefit from having a high Draft Pick as it is being given to the Miami Dolphins. That will at least mean the Texans will be looking to end the season on a high knowing they don't hold their own First Round Pick, but there have been questions as to how long they want to keep their better players on the field.

Deshaun Watson was a little hurt at the end of the Week 16 defeat against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he is insisting he is playing and Interim Head Coach Romeo Crennel has also suggested the Quarter Back will be good to go. It is so important for the Houston Texans to have Watson playing even though he is short of much help, although in this game the team would be facing a horrible Tennessee Defensive unit.

David Johnson could have a huge impact in this game because the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to control the line of scrimmage and running the ball has been something the Texans have been able to do in recent games. Their Quarter Back is able to make plays with his legs too and I do think Deshaun Watson and the Houston Offense will also find considerable success throwing the ball down the field.

You do have to question how the Houston Offensive Line has played when it comes to protecting Watson and that is a key reason most thought the Quarter Back may sit in Week 17. However the Titans have virtually had no pass rush in recent games and so I expect Deshaun Watson to have some time in this one to keep the chains moving.

Moving the ball on the ground won't only be a successful game plan for the Houston Texans and Derrick Henry will be ready to have a big week for the Tennessee Titans. He is a difficult Running Back to stop at the best of times, but players have been trampling all over the Texans Defensive Line and I fully expect Tennessee to be able to move the ball on the ground through Henry and his power.

It will ease the pressure on Ryan Tannehill who has not been playing very well in recent games. However like Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill will have time to throw the ball down the field in this one and the Houston Secondary is completely banged up to suggest the Quarter Back is going to be able to find his big targets in the passing game.

Both teams should feel good about their Offensive schemes in this one and we could see a similar game to the one between the Divisional rivals earlier in the season which was decided in Overtime. It certainly makes the points being given to the Houston Texans look really appealing in this one with every chance of a late score to get within the key number that the point spread is going through.

Neither team has very strong trends to lean on, but Houston do have a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six home games against this Divisional rival. I do like the Texans in this one and I think they can at least make this a competitive game as the Titans feel the pressure of trying to secure their own PlayOff spot.


New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There is still a chance for the New Orleans Saints to finish as high as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and earn the only Bye in the Conference on Wild Card Weekend. However they are going to need some help to do that and there is a feeling in my mind that Sean Payton could rest a number of starters if he hears news of other results which are likely going to mean the Saints are playing next week.

The main player Payton will want to protect has to be Drew Brees as the Quarter Back is still favouring his ribs after the injury he suffered earlier this season. The Saints will know how important Brees is for them if they are going to make the Super Bowl again and so if the Number 1 Seed is beyond them it would be foolish not to give the Quarter Back a bit more rest in preparation for next week.

Regardless of the full intentions of the Head Coach, the New Orleans Saints are going to be without some big Offensive weapons in Week 17. Alvin Kamara may have tied a NFL record last week when scoring six Touchdowns on the ground, but he has tested positive for Covid-19 and will sit out in Week 17, while the rest of the Running Back corps are also going to sit as close contacts of Kamara.

Taysom Hill and Ty Montgomery could have their successes against this Carolina Defensive Line which has worn down over the course of the season, but the absence of a pass catching Back like Kamara is a big blow to the Offensive unit. The Saints may use more Wildcat looks with Hill at Quarter Back if they do wish to give Brees a little more time to rest, while the Quarter Back is also without his top Receiving target Michael Thomas.

It has not effect last week in the win over Minnesota, but I do think the Carolina Panthers will be highly motivated to stop the Saints becoming the first time to sweep the entire Division in a single season in the NFC South. Teddy Bridgewater has spent time with the Saints and he should also want to underline his ability to take Carolina forward as the Panthers continue their rebuild.

For much of the season Carolina have been very competitive, although they are also missing some key players in Week 17 as the season winds down for them. Losing Mike Davis means having to work down the depth chart at Running Back, while Bridgewater will be well aware of the quality of the New Orleans pass rush which could rush his throws.

Even then I do think the Panthers will have some successes and a backdoor cover can't be ruled out if the Saints decide to give their better players rest time as the game develops. Finishing with the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed is not a major difference, and certainly not one that will see Sean Payton pushing to do one or the other, but I would not be surprised if the Saints do just enough to win this without covering.

As I have mentioned, the Panthers have been competitive for large parts of the season and they are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine as the underdog. They are also 5-1 against the spread in the last six games against the New Orleans Saints, while Carolina covered as the underdog when these teams met earlier this season to push the dog to 11-2 against the spread in the last thirteen between these Divisional rivals.

There is plenty to like about the Saints over the next month as the PlayOffs get going, but I think the Panthers can do enough to make use of the points on offer here.


Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: These two old rivals have so much to play for in Week 17 of the 2020 season and I do think there is every chance that it goes down to the wire.

The Green Bay Packers have won the NFC North and confirmed they are going to host at least one PlayOff Game, but they have control of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and this season it feels extra important to earn that spot. For starters they are the sole team to receive a Bye in the NFC and the extra rest as well as home field advantage through the PlayOffs is absolutely massive for a team who will feel they should have won more Super Bowls during the Aaron Rodgers era.

Aaron Rodgers has been playing really well all season and has to be the stand out name when it comes to the award of the regular season MVP. He has gotten back on the same page with the team who seemingly Drafted their future at Quarter Back last year and who did not bring in the kind of talent that would have taken Rodgers even further ahead.

He has made lemonade out of the lemons most felt the Green Bay Packers have given him in 2020 and the Packers are big favourites to win here.

However it has not only been good news for the 12-3 Green Bay Packers as they lost key Offensive Lineman David Bakhtiari for the season and that will put some pressure on Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back. It may also affect the running game which has been important for the Packers all season and we will see how they handle the Chicago Defensive Line which has not played as well as they would have liked up front.

Both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams should be ready to go in this one, but Green Bay have some real depth at Running Back now and they will still believe they can move the ball on the ground despite the issues on the Offensive Line. And any team that has Aaron Rodgers will always believe they can throw the ball with success, although the injury to Bakhtiari may be felt most keenly when it comes to pass protection and especially against this fierce Chicago pass rush.

You still have to feel the Packers will move the ball and score points, but the return of Mitchell Trubisky has galvanised the Offensive unit and the Chicago Bears are now streaking in a positive direction. It is hard to really trust Trubisky on his own, but the key for the Bears may be the performance of the Offensive Line and David Montgomery who has shown why there were so many raving about the Running Back before a tough start to his professional career.

It is so important to be able to run the ball against the Packers Defensive Line if only to make life easier for your own Quarter Back with the strength of the Green Bay Defense being the Secondary. An additional bonus is that running the ball will keep Aaron Rodgers freezing on the sidelines and cool off the Packers Offense and allow the Bears to remain competitive in this game.

There has been enough from the Bears Offensive Line to believe they can run the ball and the mobility of the Quarter Back will really help too. That may just ease up the Green Bay pass rush and it will be up to Mitchell Trubisky to make sure he is accurate when he does look to target some talented Receivers and Tight Ends down the field.

I do like the Bears here as they look to earn the win which will take them into the PlayOffs, but backing them on the spread means we are going through a key number with the home underdog.

Green Bay have won eight of the last nine against Chicago and they blew them out at the end of November which makes it hard to believe in the Bears.

However Chicago are 14-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty games as the home underdog and I think I will be happy enough taking the Bears with the points.


Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: In a terrible NFC East it says so much about badly Philadelphia have played this season that the Eagles are the sole team out of four that cannot make the PlayOffs in Week 17. They can play spoiler for the Washington Football Team though and a 'no hat rule' is in place inside the Eagles locker room as they refuse to let another Divisional rival celebrate on their own patch.

Things are very simple for the Washington Football Team who will be hosting a PlayOff Game on Wild Card Weekend if they can win in the Sunday Night Football slot this week. That will be a challenge for a team who have been struggling Offensively as they have dropped back to back games, although Alex Smith is back to lead the Football Team on Sunday.

Dwayne Haskins was the starter over the last couple of weeks, but he has long been out of favour with the Washington Coaching staff and no one was that surprised when he was released between Week 16 and Week 17. That means there is a hope that Smith is over his injuries and ready to compete at Quarter Back, and he will be helped by the fact that the Eagles have nothing to play for and are giving banged up veterans the chance to rest.

Ron Rivera will be keeping his fingers crossed that the likes of Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurinare able to suit up on Sunday as the big time Offensive weapons that will propel Washington forward. The Football Team will be looking to move the ball on the ground and at least try and make life easier for Alex Smith, although the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the Eagles banged up Secondary which has allowed big play after big play in recent weeks.

I do think Alex Smith will have successes, but I am not entirely convinced it will be a consistency to the drives through the game.

There should be some pressure on the Quarter Back when he does drop back to throw the ball and Alex Smith has not really felt comfortable throwing the ball down the field. Instead he will be looking to stay in front of the chains and hope the Philadelphia Secondary continues to bust coverages as much as they have been.

The Football Team should be able to have some strong Offensive drives, but the Philadelphia Eagles will believe Jalen Hurts will offer some positive drives of their own. The Quarter Back has given the Eagles a boost since coming in for Carson Wentz, but he has been inaccurate at times and made some poor decisions and that has proven to be costly for the Eagles.

There are some key players missing for the Eagles on this side of the ball which may make them a little inconsistent and I am not convinced they will run the ball as well they have been. Hurts is capable of moving the ball with his legs, but Miles Sanders may miss out which means Boston Scott is taking the bulk of carries again.

Again it is very important to stay in front of the sticks and I do think the Eagles will be capable of doing that, although the Washington Defensive Line remains very strong at breaking through and getting to the Quarter Back. That will likely be evident in this Week 17 game and that pressure up front has made it difficult for teams to throw the ball against the Football Team Secondary.

I do think that will eventually be the key to the outcome of the game and I think the Eagles are too short-handed and banged up to stay with the Football Team.

Washington have a 9-4 record against the spread in their last thirteen games in Philadelphia.

The Eagles do have a good record as a home underdog and Washington are not exactly a great road favourite to back, but I think the situation and the Offensive balance favours the Football Team to earn a big win. The Football Team have also played well enough against Divisional rivals to believe they can win this by around a Touchdown and I will back them to cover in what might be a tight, tense game decided by a huge Defensive stand from Washington in the Fourth Quarter.

MY PICKS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Washington Football Team - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

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