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It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Tuesday, 26 January 2021

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (January 26-28)

That honestly felt like one of the longest GameWeeks we have seen in Fantasy Football as it covered over a week of matches, but it has turned out to be a decent one and without having to use any of the Chips we have over the second half of the season.

The games keep coming in this congested season and the next four GameWeeks are going to be played over a two week period which means you have to be aware of rotations so having a deep bench is going to be imperative. More on this below, but first my thoughts about the ten Premier League games to be played between Tuesday and Thursday.


Crystal Palace v West Ham United Pick: In recent years the West Ham United fans have been far from convinced about the direction the club were moving in, but they will feel much happier with what they are seeing at the moment.

David Moyes is really getting the best from the squad and 5 wins in a row in 2021 is giving the team confidence as they progress up the Premier League standings and also in the FA Cup. The manager was able to rest some key players in the 4-0 Cup win over Doncaster Rovers this past weekend, but that took nothing away from what looks a stronger squad than the one he had last season.

There is still a hope that another striker can be brought into the London Stadium to ease the burden on Michail Antonio, but for now West Ham United will make the relatively short trip to Selhurst Park with plenty of belief behind them.

Defensively they have been very good and that has resulted in a single goal conceded in their last 5 games in all competitions. The numbers back up those successes and I think West Ham United can make life difficult for Crystal Palace.

However, Roy Hodgson has had a number of days to prepare for this fixture after his team were beaten in the FA Cup Third Round at Wolves earlier in the month. It should mean Wilfred Zaha is available having missed the 4-0 defeat at Manchester City, although Crystal Palace continue to be inconsistent in the final third.

They have not scored in their last 3 games in all competitions, but all of those fixtures came away from Selhurst Park. At home Crystal Palace have largely managed to find the net and that makes them dangerous even against the strong system West Ham United have been playing in.

Games between these teams have usually produced goals for both, and they did draw 1-1 at the London Stadium around six weeks ago. However it was not a game blessed with a lot of chances and I think the recent performances of the two teams suggest one of these sides will fail to find the net.

Crystal Palace are perhaps being under-rated as the home underdog, but my bigger feeling is that one of these teams will fail to find the net with two organised managers in charge. The last 7 between Crystal Palace and West Ham United have seen both teams score, but I am looking for that run to end here.


Newcastle United v Leeds United Pick: The next two weeks could be absolutely huge for Newcastle United and especially manager Steve Bruce with 3 of the next 4 Premier League games being played at St James' Park. The feeling is that Mike Ashley doesn't really want to have to sack Bruce, but Newcastle United have to arrest the slide towards the relegation zone and the fixture list is one from which they should be earning positive results.

First up is Leeds United who have lost their last 3 games in all competitions without scoring a goal, although Marcelo Bielsa has had a number of days to prepare his team for this fixture. That is an important development for Leeds United who have perhaps not played as poorly as the results suggest, while also giving the players the chance to just reset after the defeats.

This is a team that will continue to play the same way and that means Leeds United will be getting forward and looking to attack a vulnerable Newcastle United team. The Magpies have looked a mess at the back which has given teams some big chances to score goals against them, while they have been struggling for goals themselves that only increases the overall pressure on the team.

Steve Bruce is trying to find the right formula to change the feelings around the club, but Newcastle United do look vulnerable to a team like Leeds United.

The visitors have lost 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games, but those have come at Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford and the new White Hart Lane. This is a much more winnable game for Leeds United who have visited 3 clubs that are currently below them in the Premier League table and have won 2 of those.

Leeds United should have the goals to take this game away from Newcastle United and I think they can win here. I expect Newcastle United to have better successes going forward, if only because of the Leeds United style, but the visitors should be well prepared and I think Marcelo Bielsa will have his team ready to win here.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: Anyone who watched the FA Cup Fourth Round tie between Southampton and Arsenal on Saturday will be expecting another tight and competitive game between the two teams.

Ralph Hasenhuttl went with a stronger looking team than Mikel Arteta and the Austrian was rewarded with a 1-0 win for Southampton.

That result means Southampton have kept 4 clean sheets in a row at St Mary's, although they are going to be missing what most would consider to be three of the first choice back four in this fixture. It will put pressure on the home team who have defended well and then punished teams with the quality that James Ward-Prowse, Stuart Armstrong, Danny Ings and Che Adams have been able to produce in the final third.

Southampton have not been creating a lot of chances though and those players have made the best of what they have been given. It is hard to sustain that over a length of time and now they face an Arsenal team who had kept 5 clean sheets in a row before the 1-0 defeat here over the weekend.

Mikel Arteta's team have looked to be playing with more confidence of late, but Arsenal are still not creating as many chances as the manager would like. That has made those clean sheets very valuable and Arsenal have managed to do that in their last 2 away games at West Brom and Brighton.

I am expecting another tight game between these teams who have shared out three goals across 180 minutes against one another in the last six weeks. Both teams will want to get forward, but they could be faced with tough defences that are playing with some confidence and limiting the amount of chances opponents have been able to create against them.

4 of the last 5 games between these clubs have ended with less than three goals shared out and I would not be surprised to see that being the case again on Tuesday. The injuries and suspensions in the Southampton backline have to be a concern, but the system should keep the home team strong and hard to break down, while Arsenal have been focusing on their defensive performances to the detriment of their attacking output of late.

One of the teams failing to score would not be a big surprise and I am expecting a low-scoring fixture to be played out.


West Brom v Manchester City Pick: With 19 Premier League games to play and with a 6 point gap to Brighton outside of the bottom three you do have to believe that every point will matter to West Brom if they are going to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

The Baggies have appointed Sam Allardyce to aid them in their bid to avoid relegation and ten days ago West Brom won for the first time under the former England manager.

They have had time to prepare for this fixture having lost in the FA Cup Third Round, but Allardyce is a pragmatic manager and he will know which games West Brom need to target if they are going escape their current plight. He has made it clear that anything from this fixture would be a bonus, but West Brom face Fulham and Sheffield United over the next week and there is no doubt that The Baggies will be looking for results in those games.

It could mean Sam Allardyce is perhaps looking at this fixture as little more than a distraction in preparing for those games against fellow clubs inside the bottom three. Ultimately the manager has indicated that a win in this one will mean nothing if West Brom were not able to beat fellow relegation candidates and I think that could influence team selection.

Manchester City may be more vulnerable to an upset without Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero and last month West Brom rode their luck at times to earn a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium. That will be encouraging, but West Brom didn't create a lot and I expect a defensive performance from the hosts which should help Manchester City move into a position to earn another clean sheet.

It should be noted that Manchester City are perhaps more vulnerable away from home having only kept a single clean sheet in their last 4 games on on their travels in all competitions. However two of those were Cup ties with changes made and Chelsea scored very late on having trailed 0-3 in the other game in that time.

West Brom have not scored in their last 3 home games and offered little threat against Aston Villa, Leeds United and Arsenal. I think they may not want to run their key players into the ground before the big games coming up and I think it will result in a comfortable Manchester City win on the day.

Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero are big absences, but Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva have been rested and Phil Foden is in fine form for the visitors. I expect they will have enough quality at both ends to earn the three points and likely with yet another clean sheet for the John Stones-Ruben Dias centre defence partnership to enjoy.


Burnley v Aston Villa Pick: This has the makings of an intriguing Premier League fixture and one that both Sean Dyche and Dean Smith will be confident that their team can produce the three points.

Burnley and Aston Villa have both been in positive form and I do think there is enough to like about the way the teams have been approaching fixtures to believe this could be a better game than some would think.

Aston Villa have been creating chances, but this is a team who have not defended as well as their overall numbers would suggest. It has especially been evident in recent away games, although Aston Villa will point out that those fixtures have come against some of the better teams in the Premier League.

Now while Burnley are not on the same level as Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs, they have been playing well enough in recent weeks to believe in themselves. Even in the 0-1 defeat to Manchester United, Burnley did create chances although they have been struggling to contain teams at the back too.

When these teams met last month it ended goalless, but Aston Villa created a host of very good chances in that fixture and I do think they will do the same here.

However I think Burnley are playing pretty well at home and they should be able to have some opportunities of their own. Both games in the Premier League between these clubs finished with at least three goals last season and I do believe an early goal could open this fixture up with both teams perhaps offering up more good scoring chances than their managers would really like.

Burnley home games have been low-scoring throughout the season, but Aston Villa can help open things up and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Chelsea v Wolves Pick: There was some surprise in the English media that Frank Lampard was sacked as manager of Chelsea, but this is a club that tolerates very little underachievement.

The reality is that Chelsea have spent a lot of money in the summer and they would have expected to be much closer to the top. Instead Chelsea have been left in 9th place and they are 5 points behind the top four in a season where the top of the Division has been wide open.

For whatever reason, you can't deny that Chelsea have been in miserable form for almost two months having looked like a genuine title contender. I am not sure if the players knew there were some who were uncertain about Lampard and decided to down tools, or whether confidence has just been shot to bits, but Chelsea have not been getting the results they would have wanted.

Thomas Tuchel is the latest man expected to take over at Stamford Bridge and he will know all the about the pressure that comes at clubs like this. He had been under that pressure in his last job at Paris Saint-Germain, but the German will be tasked to turn the form around and at least help Chelsea get back into the Champions League.

He won't be in charge on Wednesday, but Tuchel may pick the team and Chelsea have been playing better than some of the results have suggested. The Blues have creative players and they should be able to do that against Wolves who have been in miserable form themselves and don't look the same without Raul Jimenez leading the line.

Wolves did come from behind to beat Chelsea at Molineux last month, but they had lost 3 away Premier League games in a row before the 3-3 draw at Brighton. The chances that teams have been creating against Wolves is a real worry for Nuno Espirito Santo and I think we will see a big reaction from the Chelsea players on Wednesday afternoon.

There may be a sense of freedom or maybe they had lost faith in Frank Lampard and will be looking to show a new manager what they are capable of. Chelsea have been creating enough chances and playing well enough at Stamford Bridge to get the better of Wolves and I think they will be able to break down an out of form team in the victory.

The Blues were unfortunate to lose to Wolves when they met earlier this season, but I think they earn a measure of revenge here and begin the move back up the League table.


Brighton v Fulham Pick: Over the next two weeks there are some very big games between those clubs at the bottom of the Premier League table.

The teams in and around the bottom four are meeting one another regularly in that time and by the end of those two weeks we should have a good idea as to which of the clubs are able to avoid relegation.

Brighton have to find a way to win at the Amex Stadium having failed to do so in over six months in the Premier League, but they have won back to back games and that will be encouraging for Graham Potter. A win on Wednesday will really open the gap between Brighton and the bottom three and the side have played better than their overall results would suggest.

There will be a confidence in the home squad, but Fulham have to find a way to match that having lost 3 games in a row in all competitions. All 3 losses have come at home and Fulham were dumped out of the FA Cup on Sunday, but Scott Parker knows his team have an opportunity in front of them.

In the next few days Fulham visit Brighton and West Brom, the teams currently sandwiching them in 18th place, and wins in both would really inspire the players. However there is always the other side of the coin which says defeats in both games would leave Fulham struggling to find the belief to avoid the drop and so this is a very important week for the entire club.

Avoiding defeat would likely be acceptable in one game as long as Fulham can win the other game, but this is a team who have been struggling to find the balance at both ends of the field. While they have looked a bit better defensively, Fulham have not been creating a lot of chances and we may see a similar game as to when these clubs met at Craven Cottage which finished goalless.

Chances didn't come easy that day, although Brighton may feel a touch more fortunate to have come away with the draw. This time I expect Brighton to have the better of the play, but these are two teams who won't want to give a lot away and I think we will see a tight and competitive game produced.

It may result in one of the teams failing to find the net as they look to prevent giving too much encouragement to the other and this may be a relatively low-scoring fixture.


Everton v Leicester City Pick: Both Carlo Ancelotti and Brendan Rodgers have to be very satisfied with what they have seen from their Everton and Leicester City teams respectively as we approach the end of January.

Both clubs are still in the FA Cup and both are dreaming of a return to the Champions League which only increases the importance of this fixture.

While Everton have been a little inconsistent at home in recent weeks, Leicester City have won 5 in a row overall and 5 of their last 6 away games which will give them confidence. Even the absence of Jamie Vardy until next month has not been a major concern for Leicester City who feel there is a real depth at the club that makes them dangerous.

Last season's experiences should help Leicester City who have quality in the final third that will make life very difficult for Everton. I expect The Foxes to create chances here, although the last time Leicester City were beaten came in a fixture against Everton.

That win for Everton at the King Power Stadium last month was deserved and the first team look as healthy as they have since the beginning of the season. At that stage Carlo Ancelotti was getting plenty out of his players and I think they are going to be dangerous too in what looks to be a decent fixture on paper.

Goals have tended to flow when these teams have faced one another and I do think both Everton and Leicester City are playing well when looking to attack. At the same time there are one or two vulnerabilities in defensive areas which can be exposed by the other and 11 of the last 12 between these clubs at Goodison Park have ended with at least three goals shared out.

On current form I would think a 2-1 victory either way can't be ruled out and I do think this will be a fixture in which goals will be the outcome.


Manchester United v Sheffield United Pick: At the start of this latest round of Premier League fixtures this is one featuring top versus bottom, although Manchester United will likely be kicking off in 2nd place assuming Manchester City beat West Brom at The Hawthorns.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer won't be worrying about League position at kick off, but will be expecting Manchester United to focus on the task in hand which is making sure they don't drop any silly points. It has been the foundation of success for Manchester United who have won all of their League games played against the current bottom seven in the League standings.

Manchester United's win over Liverpool in the FA Cup Fourth Round will only add to the confidence of the players and this is a game they should win. They have won 5 of their last 6 at Old Trafford in all competitions and there has been an improvement in the performances both going forward and defensively.

It is certainly expected to be good enough to beat a Sheffield United team who have looked out of their depth in the Premier League this season. They haven't been as bad as only managing 5 points, but Sheffield United have once again struggled for goals and defensively they have certainly taken a step back from last season.

Teams have been able to not only get after Sheffield United, but Aaron Ramsdale has struggled to replicate the success Dean Henderson had which has left Chris Wilder's team in a vulnerable spot.

Sheffield United have looked a little stronger at home, but they have not created a lot in their most recent away games. The Blades have only scored a single goal in their last 5 away Premier League games and that lack of a cutting edge is likely going to be costly for them here.

It does have to be said that Manchester United have not really dealt in clean sheets as much as they would have liked, but they have produced 4 in their 9 home League games this season. Manchester United beat Sheffield United 3-0 at Old Trafford last season too and I think they are likely going to win this game fairly comfortably on the day and with a clean sheet to boot.


Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: The final game of this round of Premier League fixtures looks a very important one, especially when it comes to a potential title challenge for either Tottenham Hotspur or Liverpool.

Both managers will likely expect the two Manchester clubs to win their Premier League fixtures that are played on Tuesday and Wednesday and that will open up a considerable gap to these two teams.

With that in mind I would expect Jose Mourinho and Jurgen Klopp to understand the importance of the three points which will keep them in touch with those leading teams. Anything less than the win on Thursday will put pressure on Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool and that goes as far as the pressure building on a top four chase.

When they met at Anfield last month Liverpool scored a late goal to win the game, but Tottenham Hotspur really will feel they deserved a lot more than they got. Now the onus is on Tottenham Hotspur playing in their own Stadium, although I expect Jose Mourinho will be looking for the counter attack to expose a Liverpool team that have been struggling.

They may have lost at Old Trafford, but at least there were some signs that Liverpool's attacking football was rediscovering the lost rhythm of recent weeks. Liverpool have still not scored in 4 Premier League games, although they have created some chances and it is unlikely that the front three will continue to misfire.

The goal scored at Manchester United might turn things around, but Tottenham Hotspur will feel they can pick up where the current Premier League leaders left off and that is using their speed and counter attacking to hurt the Champions. Playing on Monday evening in the FA Cup Fourth Round was not ideal, but Tottenham Hotspur have played well in recent games and they are a difficult team to see off.

As the home underdog I do think Tottenham Hotspur are worth backing and especially when you look at how Liverpool have played away from home all season. The feeling is that Liverpool are a little more predictable with their attacking play and Tottenham Hotspur should be well prepared to deal with what is in front of them.

Spurs have played well enough to believe they can expose the defensive vulnerabilities of their visitors, and I think Tottenham Hotspur are worth backing to avoid defeat.

In recent seasons Liverpool have had the edge when these teams have faced each other, but they have been fortunate to win their last 2 games against Spurs. In those games Tottenham Hotspur have played well and deserved more than they got, and they have created enough chances in recent fixtures to believe they can perhaps edge out Liverpool.

The neutrals should enjoy this fixture and I think it will be a close game, but Liverpool look short considering their recent form and overall away record. It may not ebb and flow as much as the Cup tie at Old Trafford on Sunday, but Jose Mourinho should be able to employ the counter attacking approach he favours and that may be good enough to pick up a positive result.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-West Ham United Both Teams to Score- NO
Leeds United
Southampton-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester City Win to Nil
Burnley-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals
Brighton-Fulham Both Teams to Score- NO
Everton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester United Win to Nil
Tottenham Hotspur + 0.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 20
Any time you pick up close to 100 points in a single GameWeek without using any chips has to be considered a very good return, but I still feel a little disappointed.

Kevin De Bruyne's injury one minute before the 60th minute mark meant I got a very low return from the Captain choice in the DGW, while I have to ask the entire midfield what fascination they had with picking up bookings.

Example? Hakim Ziyech has had one booking all season, but somehow managed to pick up a yellow card in both games played and earned just 2 points from his DGW, a terrible signing for that week.

Marcus Rashford had two games and earned 3 points, Tomas Soucek had two games and earned 4 points so those three midfielders really let me down. So with that in mind to pick up 93 positive points (with the four point hit included) is a better return than I may have imagined if you had given me those totals before a ball had been kicked.


It was not an ideal week with De Bruyne picking up an injury and Rashford looking like a doubt after scoring against Liverpool in the FA Cup, but having to leave with a knee injury. Instead of wanting to move through GW20 without making a transfer, I can't have two 'premium' assets potentially missing a number of games and it may need a third hit in consecutive weeks to shape the squad as I would like.

The injury to Marcus Rashford does not sound like a serious one, but I do think he will miss the fixture against Sheffield United and that is a big blow for my team. It is frustrating too, considering the moves made to have the squad in a good position heading into early February, but this is one of those seasons where the best made plans have fallen by the wayside and there really isn't much you can do about that.


Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has stated Marcus Rashford has been in training on Monday and Tuesday, and it is something that is perhaps going to prevent me taking the hit. I have a decent looking bench this week if he doesn't play, but there is always the worry that Rashford comes on for a cameo as he did at Fulham last week.

Kevin De Bruyne's absence is much clearer and replacing him is the major thought process I am working with ahead of GW20- the options are pretty clear for me as I look for the Manchester City replacements considering their three games coming up over the next week, although I have considered one or two other names.

Those have come from Leicester City (Harvey Barnes, James Maddison and Ayoze Perez look like good options, the last of those looks like being the main replacement for Jamie Vardy who will be back in February).

Another team with some good looking fixtures coming up is Everton and they are looking healthier than they have at any time over the last two months. James Rodriguez would be the main target and with three decent looking games to come, although for now I think I may wait to upgrade other positions with their assets.

There is also a feeling that Everton are going to have a couple of DGWs coming up very soon which will bolster my squad so that is something to keep in mind.

However my lean is with the Manchester City midfielders who have three good fixtures to come and with players in decent form. Bernardo Silva has thrived in the past when KDB has been missing games, while Phil Foden and Ilkay Gundogan are very strong options too which opens the door to upgrading assets in other positions.

The deadline is coming up at 4:30pm on Tuesday and I think it will be a decision I make as close to that time as possible, but my leans are fairly clear.

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