The 2020 NFL season may have been played during a pandemic, but we are down to the final four as the Championship Games are played this weekend.
It is all credit to the NFL we have gotten here and I know I am grateful to the players for putting themselves out there for our entertainment- I have little doubt how much more difficult life would have been without the breaks given to us by the various sports and the NFL has really been a blessing over the last several months.
We will have a small break after this weekend with the Super Bowl scheduled to be played on Sunday 7th February at Raymond James Stadium and it looks like it is going to be a very strong game regardless of which two teams are going to compete in it.
Last week the NFL Picks had a bounce back week after the really poor showing in the Super Wild Card Round and I do look like completing a very strong season. To be fair it had been a poor run before the Divisional Round when the Picks went 3-1 and I am looking to back it up with the two Championship Games to be played on Sunday before the Super Bowl in two weeks time.
I do think these four teams are the best ones in the NFL and I would be disappointed if either game is a blow out. My feeling is that the Number 1 Seeds will prevail, but both road teams are not to be taken lightly as you will be able to tell when reading my thoughts below.
Before the Super Bowl my plan is to have my first Mock Draft ahead of the NFL Draft which will take place in April. I do think I will be able to create a couple of Mocks before the Draft as the Senior Bowl and Combine news comes out, while I would not be surprised to see some major trade moves made before the Draft takes place.
Teams will look a lot different by the time the NFL rolls back around next September and I am also trying to be as hopeful as possible as to how the 2021 season will look for the fans as well as the players.
My hope would be that fans will be back in greater numbers and that the International Series could be back too which means London will be fortunate to have some live NFL again.
Personally I am also keen on getting over for at least one game next year with the Dolphins playing road games in New Orleans and Las Vegas, and it is these kinds of dreams which can help the days tick along while we are all having difficulties through our day to day lives.
After the positive Divisional Round selections, you can read my Championship Picks below.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: They might not be the top two Seeds in the NFC, but it does feel like the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the best two teams in the Conference at this time in January.
The Buccaneers have had to win two road games against Divisional Winners to earn their spot in the Championship Game and now they are one win away from adding another piece of history to Tom Brady's long list of accolades in the NFL. Winning would mean Brady would be the first Quarter Back to play a Super Bowl in his home Stadium and there is a feeling the Buccaneers have picked up their play as each week has passed in the first with Tom Brady at the team.
After reports Brady and Bruce Arians were not on the same page, wins over the Washington Football Team and the New Orleans Saints have taken the Buccaneers to the Conference Championship Game. When Tom Brady was signed that would have been the minimum expectation for the Buccaneers in the 2020 season and the veteran Quarter Back doesn't look like he has missed a beat even at his advanced age.
Tampa Bay have won six in a row and they humiliated the Green Bay Packers in the regular season, although it did not dent the confidence of the Packers. That defeat was a bad one, but Green Bay finished with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and that means they are the only team in the Conference who have earned a Bye Week and they secured a comfortable home win over the Los Angeles Rams to earn their spot in the Championship Game.
As good as Tom Brady has been, Aaron Rodgers has been playing at MVP level for the Green Bay Packers and that is almost despite the lack of support given to him by the team. If the Packers had picked a top Receiver in the Draft last year I would have had them down as favourites to win the Super Bowl, but Rodgers is playing at an elite level and that is bringing out the best of those around him.
However I do feel just as much credit has to be given to the Green Bay Offensive Line which has been able to dominate the trenches despite the injuries they have picked up over the course of the season. David Bakhtiari is absent, but that did not stop the Packers from running over a very power Los Angeles Defensive Line last week and they have also protected Aaron Rodgers which has allowed the future Hall of Fame Quarter Back ample time to dissect teams down the field.
The battle in the trenches is going to be incredibly fun to watch on this side of the ball- the Packers Offensive Line have bullied teams and opened up big holes for the running game, but this week they are facing a Tampa Bay Defensive Line bolstered by the likely return of Vita Vea who has been activated and is ready to play according to all reports.
His presence on the Defensive Line might just give the Buccaneers a boost having been strong against the run all season, but showing some signs that there was some wear on the players up front. Now having a healthy Vea back will only make it that much more difficult for Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and the Green Bay Offensive Line to have the same kind of success they have been enjoying in recent weeks.
This is the key to the game on this side of the ball- if the Packers can get any kind of a run game going I do think they will open the field for Aaron Rodgers against a Tampa Bay Secondary which has given up some big yards. Last week the Buccaneers were able to expose the deterioration of Drew Brees who looks set to move into retirement, but Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as he has throughout his career.
Stopping Aaron Rodgers is a far bigger challenge than Drew Brees at this stage of their careers and I do think Green Bay will be able to move the sticks through the air. Davante Adams is a big time Receiver for the Packers and he was schemed up to pick up 66 passing yards and a Touchdown in the win over the tough Rams Secondary in the Divisional Round.
Other Receivers have stepped up to make plays for Rodgers when Adams has not been open and I do think Green Bay can have success through the air. The key for Aaron Rodgers is avoiding the turnovers that Tampa Bay used to blow out the Packers in Week 6 of the regular season, but he will feel he is playing at a much better level now and I think Green Bay will have success and find better balance than some may believe in light of the Vita Vea return for the visiting team.
It does sound like it will be cold and possibly snowy in Green Bay at kick off on Sunday, but I think the Packers will be able to at least stay in front of the chains behind this Offensive Line.
Those conditions may not be ideal for teams coming from warmer climates to play in, although Tom Brady has plenty of experience from his time with the New England Patriots. It will be up to his team-mates to show they can cope with what could be difficult field conditions to run on, but Tampa Bay are playing well and their own Offensive Line may feel they can have success if they pick up from where they left off in the Divisional Round.
Namely run the ball.
Leonard Fournette had a strong game against the New Orleans Saints Defensive Line despite the fact the Saints had been playing the run pretty well all season. He backed up the change in pace at Running Back through Ronald Jones and it will be up to the Tampa Bay Offensive Line to try and move people around and give the two Backs a chance of keeping Tom Brady and the entire Offense in front of the sticks.
Stopping the run has been one of the weaknesses of the Green Bay Defensive unit which has played pretty well all season. In the Divisional Round Cam Akers led the Los Angeles Rams to over 5 yards per carry against this Green Bay Defensive Line and it will be important for the Buccaneers to not only keep their own team in third and manageable spots, but also keep Aaron Rodgers freezing on the sidelines by extending drives and controlling the time of possession.
I expect the Buccaneers will have some success with the two Running Backs they will trot out onto the field, but ultimately this game will still come down to Tom Brady and the vast amount of weapons he is working with these days. Antonio Brown looks set to be ruled out which is a blow, but Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are viable threats down the field and will give Tom Brady an opportunity to reach yet another Super Bowl.
They will be facing the power of the Green Bay Defense though with an ever improving Secondary and a decent pass rush up front that may be able to at least rattle the Quarter Back. It won't be easy to get to Brady, but injuries on the Tampa Bay Offensive Line have not cleared up and so the likes of Preston Smith and Za'Darious Smith should be able to at least get Tom Brady to throw the ball quicker than he likes when he is in obvious passing downs.
And then that will be Tom Brady throwing into the Green Bay Secondary which has some serious talent and an ability to at least slow some of the top Receiving options for the veteran Quarter Back. Stopping Tampa Bay completely looks out of the question with the experience they have at Head Coach and Quarter Back, but Green Bay will certainly feel they can do enough on both sides of the ball to eventually earn their place in the Super Bowl.
The elephant in the room has to be that Week 6 game between these teams which saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers score thirty-eight points in a row to erase an early deficit and beat the Green Bay Packers 38-10 at home. The Packers were undone by turnovers that day, but over the years we have seen a number of occasions where the team hosting the Championship Game was beaten in the regular season by their opponent and on the road.
Those teams are 14-8 outright and they are 4-3 against the spread in the last seven after the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Tennessee Titans in that spot last season. Even those that have been blown out (loss by ten or more points) in the regular season game have recovered for a 5-3 against the spread in the Championship Game and that should encourage the Green Bay Packers.
I have to respect Tom Brady and his ability, while Tampa Bay have a decent record as an underdog in recent games in that spot including winning outright last week at the New Orleans Saints. However, the Green Bay Packers are a strong home favourite and they have been a very good team to back in recent PlayOff Games even though Aaron Rodgers is just 2-2 against the spread in his four previous NFC Championship Games.
Two of those losses for Aaron Rodgers have come on the road though and he is a much better Quarter Back at home and I think his Packers team will find the balance to have the edge. Tom Brady is just 6-7 against the spread in his thirteen previous Championship Games with the New England Patriots and I think the Green Bay Packers will find the plays to edge to the win here, although it should be a really good game to watch.
In recent years the team that have won the regular season game have tended to do the same in the Championship Game rematch, but I think there are enough factors to believe the Green Bay Packers can overcome that. The conditions should suit the home team, they should have the superior balance Offensively even with the likely improvement in the Tampa Bay Defensive Line and I think Aaron Rodgers will play well enough at home to avoid the turnovers which have fuelled the Buccaneers in their win the regular season as well as the one over the New Orleans Saints in the SuperDome in the Divisional Round.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The top two Seeds in the AFC have long looked the best teams in this Conference and I think this Championship Game was the more predictable of the two we are going to see on Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs were able to hold on to beat the upstart Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round and it was a case of holding on when Patrick Mahomes went down with an injury. That saw the Quarter Back entering the concussion protocol, but Mahomes has been on the practice field all week and he is set to go on Sunday.
That win came after the Chiefs received the one and only Bye Week in the PlayOffs on the AFC side of the bracket towards the Super Bowl. The Chiefs did what they needed to, but the Buffalo Bills have arguably looked more impressive in their wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens, especially the latter victory, although both games were played at home and it is a different ask having to travel to Arrowhead Stadium to earn a big result.
Those wins have been well deserved and the Buffalo Bills have won eight in a row which will give them a confidence boost. They will need all of that to beat the Kansas City Chiefs who may not be dominating teams, but the Super Bowl Champions have won eleven of their last twelve games and the sole loss came in Week 17 of the regular season when they rested key starters.
It will not be the case on Sunday in the Championship Game and there is a hope that important skill players like Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be available with both being limited in practice. Those two players will be important to give the Chiefs a bit more balance Offensively, but the Offensive Line may also be back to full health which is very important to Patrick Mahomes and the entire Chiefs team.
A fully functioning Offensive Line will give the Chiefs an opportunity to establish the run and especially if Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell are ready to play. With Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back you know the Bills will concentrating on shutting down the passing lanes, but that did not work out very well for them when these teams met in the regular season and the Defensive Line have not really been able to contain the run as well as they would have liked in recent games.
The Bills will point out the successes they had against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round, but they did not respect Lamar Jackson's passing ability as much as they will have to respect what Patrick Mahomes can do and that is a vital difference. It should mean Andy Reid is able to scheme up plays to move the ball on the ground, although I imagine Mahomes is not going to be keeping too often in this one to avoid any more unnecessary hits that could see him knocked out of this game.
Buffalo have a strong Secondary in terms of the pure talent on the roster and a Head Coach who is Defensive minded, but there have been holes in this unit which are sure to be exposed by Patrick Mahomes. If the Bills do decide to contain the run, Mahomes should have a big game and this really is a 'pick your poison' kind of day for Buffalo.
It will mean there is a pressure on the Buffalo Bills Offensive unit to potentially have to keep up in a shoot out and for Josh Allen to show he belongs with the elite Quarter Backs in the NFL. I have to admit I have been largely impressed with the development of Josh Allen in the 2020 season, but he has also been helped by the moves made by the Buffalo Bills which have improved the Receiving options considerably for the young Quarter Back.
Gabriel Davis is not expected to suit up for the Bills, but Stefon Diggs has been huge for them since being traded from the Minnesota Vikings. Cole Beasley, John Brown and Dawson Knox do offer Josh Allen some serious Receiving threats, but Josh Allen will know it will be far from easy against this Kansas City Secondary and he will have to show what he has learned from the regular season game against the Chiefs when Buffalo were held to 206 yards and Allen has just 122 passing yards.
Most of the problems come from the fact that Buffalo have not really run the ball as effectively as they would have liked and that can be a big problem when we get to January. It hasn't cost them so far and Buffalo have looked good, but Josh Allen will need his team to keep him in front of the sticks and his legs will be as important as his arm in this one.
There are some holes on the Kansas City Defensive Line which does allow teams to establish the run, but Buffalo have schemed away from that and it will aid the Chiefs. I still expect Josh Allen to lead some nice drives, but he will be under pressure from the Kansas City pass rush and this is a Chiefs Secondary that are capable of making some big plays when necessary as they showed when stopping the Cleveland Browns on the goal-line before half time in the Divisional Round win.
The feeling is that we are going to get a close game here, but Kansas City have the mental edge having deservedly beaten the Buffalo Bills in the regular season. Now they get to host the AFC Championship Game and they will certainly believe they can build on the 7-2 record teams who won the regular season match up have built in the Championship Game rematch.
On the scoreboard the regular season game was competitive, but Kansas City had over double the total yards of the Buffalo Bills and I still think they have the superior team.
The key is Patrick Mahomes- he has stated he is out of the concussion protocol and will play on Sunday, but if the Chiefs have to go with Chad Henne I am not at all convinced about their chances of winning this game. With Mahomes at Quarter Back I think they will have too much scoring power and especially if the Offensive Line is intact after injuries over the last few weeks.
Buffalo are 7-1-2 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog and they are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten overall which are numbers that have to be massively respected.
At the same time Kansas City have been failing to perform to the level of 'good teams win, great teams cover' as they have not managed to do that in their last four as the home favourite and are just 1-8 against the spread in the last nine overall. That includes failing to cover against the Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round, but they may have felt their options were greater if Patrick Mahomes had played the whole game.
Even then the Chiefs have not been covering which is a concern, but I think this spread is low enough to be a manageable one for them. Not many teams have gotten the better of the Bills in the 2020 season, but Kansas City handled them really well on the road and I think they are looking pretty healthy right now which will give them the edge.
Buffalo can come again in 2021 with Josh Allen having another year under his belt, but for me the defending Super Bowl Champions will be able to make it repeat, not revenge, in this AFC Championship Game after beating the Bills in the regular season.
Covering small spreads as favourites has not been a winning formula in the last ten seasons with none of the three favourites of less than 3.5 points being able to do that. However I think Patrick Mahoms is an elite Quarter Back which is underlined by his 26-14 record against the spread when favoured by less than double digits and I expect him to come out and dominate this game against a challenger to his throne in Josh Allen.
The team which won the regular season meeting is 5-2 against the spread in Championship Game rematches and I think Kansas City will extend that after the Green Bay Packers get the better of that trend.
MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Divisional Round: 3-1, + 3.36 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)
Wild Card Round: 1-5, - 8.18 Units (12 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)
Week 17: 4-5, - 3.10 Units (18 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
Week 16: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)
Week 15: 3-4-1, - 2.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 14.88% Yield)
Week 14: 5-3, + 3 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.75% Yield)
Week 13: 5-5, - 0.82 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.10% Yield)
Week 12: 5-4, + 0.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 11: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3-1, + 1.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.13% Yield)
Week 9: 2-6, - 8.36 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 6.60 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.25% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3-1, + 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.87% Yield)
Week 6: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)
Week 3: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.27% Yield)
Week 2: 7-3, + 7.10 Units (20 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)
Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)
Season 2020: 78-63-4, + 13.46 Units (292 Units Staked, + 4.61% Yield)
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