The last couple of weeks have seen steady scores from my team, but it has not been as smooth as I would have liked and much is down to the uncertainty of this season with late postponements making things a little more awkward to manage.
I will have further thoughts on that below, but first you can read my thoughts on the six Premier League games that are to be played over the next three days.
Sheffield United v Newcastle United Pick: The Premier League is back on Tuesday and there are fixtures to be played virtually every day through to the following Thursday ahead of the FA Cup Fourth Round weekend.
With Covid-19 cases on the rise throughout England, there is a need for flexible scheduling although the feeling remains that elite sport will not need to be postponed.
It does mean that fixtures are likely to be changed at short notice, especially with no fans being allowed into Stadiums, but that does also make it difficult for players and managers to prepare as they would like.
At least Chris Wilder and Steve Bruce would have been well aware of this fixture on Tuesday which looks a big one for both Sheffield United and Newcastle United. The latter were knocked out of the FA Cup on Saturday and have been in poor form, while the former are trying to use their Third Round Cup win as a spark for their Premier League form.
Wilder is definitely going to be more disappointed with the League form that Sheffield United have displayed compared with Steve Bruce and Newcastle United. It looks a long road back to avoid relegation, but Chris Wilder is still being supported by the board and the players although he needs results not pats on the back.
A win on Tuesday will at least give Sheffield United some belief to take into fixtures going forward, but it won't be easy as they continue to struggle in front of goal. For all the criticism of Newcastle United's recent results, they have defended pretty well and they should make life tough for their hosts.
However Newcastle United have also struggled for goals having failed to score in their last 3 away games in all competitions. The last two of those have been at tough grounds against Manchester City and Arsenal, but it chances are not being created in abundance and the feeling is that this is a fixture that may see one of the teams fail to score.
Both should feel like they can pose a threat from set pieces and look to pressure the other with some pace on the counter, but both League games last season finished with one failing to score (both Sheffield United in the 2019/20 season) and I do think a lack of goals could be the outcome of this Premier League fixture where the first goal could prove to be the winner.
Burnley v Manchester United Pick: There are plenty of things that have occurred over the last twelve months that many would not have believed if you had told them what was to come in January 2020.
For those leaving Old Trafford on the night of the 22nd January 2020 there must have been a feeling that Manchester United were a long way away from where they wanted to be. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was under intense pressure after a 0-2 home defeat to Burnley and Manchester United had played two more games than leaders Liverpool, but were a mammoth 30 points behind their great rivals.
Flash forward to the 12th of January 2021 and Manchester United could finish the night top of the Premier League table if they can earn a measure of revenge over Burnley, albeit this time at Turf Moor. Any point earned would mean Manchester United will make the short journey to Anfield on Sunday as the Premier League leaders and that is a remarkable position considering where the side were just a couple of months ago.
Much of that is down to a very competitive Premier League in what has been a strange season, but no one associated with Manchester United will care as they feel their decision to stick with the manager has been vindicated.
However it does have to be said that this is a fine line the club are treading and you would see a totally different narrative if Manchester United are to lose their next 3 League games which are all played away from home. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is not getting carried away with the League position in January and it is important for Manchester United to give Burnley all the respect they deserve.
Burnley have been in decent form for a number of weeks and the side have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at home. A new owner is promising a bright future for Burnley, but those recent solid results at Turf Moor have come against clubs that are not competing at the top of the Premier League.
Sean Dyche himself has admitted this is a much bigger challenge for Burnley who have a few injuries to contend with. They have also struggled to compete with the top clubs in the last couple of years and that has seen some comfortable home defeats to the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur.
Manchester United have a good record here and I do think they score too many goals for the hosts to stay with a team looking to move to the top of the table. The side have scored at least twice in 16 of their last 17 away games in all competitions and Manchester United had scored at least three away goals in every Premier League game this season before the 2-2 draw with Leicester City.
I do have to respect the Burnley results of late, but Everton created a lot of chances here and deserved more than they got. I expect the home team to cause problems from set pieces and they will be putting a lot into this fixture which will make them push Manchester United, but I do think the recent results of the visitors makes them a strong enough favourite here.
4 of the 7 away Premier League games played by Manchester United have ended in either a draw or a win by a single goal margin, but 3 of their last 4 wins at Burnley have come by at least two goal margins.
Over the last eighteen months Burnley have lost 13 home games in all competitions and 8 of those have come by two or more goal margins. I will back Manchester United on the Asian Handicap to add to that here.
Wolves v Everton Pick: This looks to be a really difficult game to call between two clubs who will feel they should be operating much higher up the League standings in the weeks and months ahead.
Injuries makes the fixture more uncertain and I think you could make a serious argument for any of the three results- Wolves should feel good playing at home having won their FA Cup Third Round tie against Crystal Palace here last week. They have also beaten Chelsea in recent weeks at Molineux, but Everton have produced their better results away from home over the last couple of months.
However it sounds like Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be missing and that is a big issue for Everton.
He has been leading the line very well for Everton all season and I do think the drop to Cenk Tosun is a considerable one.
With that in mind I do give a narrow edge to Wolves, but they are not the same team without Raul Jimenez and the best approach may be to give this one a wide berth.
Manchester City v Brighton Pick: If you are a Manchester City fan (and I've been told there are a few out there) you have to be really happy with where the team sits as we move into the second week of the 2021 calendar year.
While the media will focus on the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United ahead of a big game between those great rivals this weekend, Manchester City can move right behind the leading teams in the Premier League in the next eight days.
They play three home games in that time and Manchester City will believe they may even end up top of the pile by the end of those if they can secure three wins. No one associated within the dressing room will be looking too far ahead and Manchester City are trying to take it game by game as they look to put wins together and keep the momentum behind them.
I would expect Manchester City to be too strong for Brighton on Wednesday even though Graham Potter's team have only lost 1 of their last 5 away games in all competitions. The absence of Yves Bissouma looks a tough one for Brighton and you would not be massively surprised if Graham Potter chooses not to risk any players who are doubtful with a 'more winnable' game at Leeds United to come this weekend.
The style of play that Potter has implemented does make it easier for the bigger teams to play against Brighton and Manchester City's two heavy wins over them last season almost underlines that point. Top teams have found goals easy to come by against Brighton, although the style does mean that Brighton will try and get forward and score goals and they are more dangerous even against the better teams.
However I am not sure they will find much joy out of this Manchester City team who have been very good defensively since partnering Ruben Dias with John Stones at the heart of the defence. Ederson is likely going to be back in goal on Wednesday too and I think Manchester City should have enough to break down Brighton and then keep the backdoor tightly locked too.
Brighton could be a threat from set pieces, but Manchester City are not giving up too many chances and backing the home team to win with a clean sheet looks the right approach.
Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Pick: This fixture was originally scheduled for last month, but a Covid-19 outbreak at Fulham meant a late postponement.
Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham have been given late notice that they will have to meet this week after the outbreak at Aston Villa meant their Premier League fixture against Spurs had to be postponed.
It is not ideal for the preparation of either set of players but the season is one in which you can't afford to kick postponements down the road and hope there will be spaces in the calendar to re-arrange fixtures. Jose Mourinho made it clear that Tottenham Hotspur were running out of space and he would not want to be forced to play three times in six days and so this decision was made on Monday to have one of their three postponed fixtures given this new date.
They were due to meet only a couple of weeks ago so a lot of the preparation would already have been done and within recent memory. That should help, but it is still a difficult spot for any players to be in although one they will just have to deal with.
Both teams progressed in the FA Cup while resting a number of key players and that should help the managers.
You do have to respect how well Fulham have been playing under Scott Parker over the last month and they have been difficult to beat. That will be an issue for Tottenham Hotspur, but I do think Spurs have come out of a difficult period and look to have more momentum behind them.
Tottenham Hotspur have been particularly good at home and I do think they have rested key players who will be keen to get on the front foot here. Even with the improvements made by Fulham, they are still a team who do give up some big chances and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to take advantage of that at home where they have won 8 of their last 9 games in all competitions.
The victory over Brentford in the League Cup shows that Tottenham Hotspur should be able to deal with a team of Fulham's level, but it will be important for Jose Mourinho's team to score first and then capitalise on spaces that may open up. They should be too good when it is all said and done and I think Spurs will likely be able to win by a comfortable margin on the night.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace Pick: In this season I do think momentum is going to be important and Arsenal have that with 4 wins in a row after a really poor few weeks.
Mikel Arteta will feel there is a real chance for Arsenal to keep that momentum going with consecutive home fixtures to come against Crystal Palace and Newcastle United. Arsenal will be favoured to win both of those games, but that brings a pressure of its own and Newcastle United showed in the Cup game that this is a team still learning and one that can be kept at arm's length if you are well organised defensively.
That is exactly what Crystal Palace should bring to the table under Roy Hodgson even if they have been in poor form of late and conceding chances and goals like it is going out of fashion.
Having an almost full week to prepare should mean Hodgson has had time to bring back some key personnel who will make Crystal Palace a little better organised defensively, while The Eagles have pace and quality in the forward areas that should make them very dangerous on the counter attack.
In the last couple of seasons that has helped Crystal Palace produce two big results at the Emirates Stadium and I think they have the chance to earn another one here.
A lack of goals is a slight concern, while Crystal Palace have suffered some heavy away losses at Chelsea and Aston Villa in the Premier League. However both of those teams are much higher up the League standings than Arsenal who have only won 1 of their last 5 at the Emirates Stadium and might be a little overrated thanks to a narrow win at Brighton and the comfortable result at West Brom.
Yes, they did beat Chelsea in their last League game here, but I would expect Crystal Palace to cause problems of their own and backing them on the start on the Asian Handicap looks the approach to this fixture. Over the last three seasons Crystal Palace have tended to give some of the better teams troubles when visiting them and they are also capable of scoring here having had plenty of time to rest and prepare.
With the results at this Stadium in mind, I think Roy Hodgson's men can earn the upset result on Thursday.
MY PICKS: Sheffield United-Newcastle United BTTS NO
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester City Win to Nil
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Crystal Palace + 1 Asian Handicap
Fantasy Football GameWeek 18
This is a season in which the best laid plans can quickly turn to dust and that has been the situation for my Fantasy team over the next two GameWeeks.
A few weeks ago I mentioned I would likely going into GW18 with between 9-11 players in action and I would then potentially Bench Boost in GW19 with all of my players expected to play twice.
However this is a Covid-19 affected season and it has meant late postponements and games being shifted at short notice. That has been the case in GW18 with the Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur game being postponed after the home team became the latest Premier League club affected by a major outbreak of Coronavirus meaning a huge portion of their first team have been forced into self-isolation.
On the face of things bringing the Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham game into the GW made a lot of sense for the Premier League, but it has not had a huge impact for me.
If the Aston Villa-Tottenham Hotspur game had gone ahead I would have had four players in action, but that has been halved with the postponement. It also means I have only six players involved in the six players this week and has made the Free Hit Chip look a better play even though I would have preferred to keep that aside for later in the season.
A week I had been targeting to use the Free Hit would have been one of the late DGWs that we usually get, while another play would have been FA Cup Quarter Final weekend. After the draw for the next two Rounds of the FA Cup were made, I could see as many as seven Premier League games being postponed in GW29, while that would also mean a number of fixtures that would need to be re-arranged later in the season.
It is going to be possible to prepare for that week with the transfers in the weeks between the FA Cup Fifth and Sixth Round, but it makes things more awkward and the second Wild Card looks to be a vital chip going forward.
The use of the Bench Boost will almost certainly be used later in the season when the Wild Card is activated to make sure of the DGWs that are left, especially with news that the Leeds United vs Southampton game that was due to be played next week is likely going to be shifted to make space for a Southampton postponed FA Cup Third Round tie.
In the next thread I will have a look at where some of the upcoming postponed games will land, while I also think this is a good time to keep an eye on the FA Cup runs that teams are likely to have in order to prepare best for later in the season.
So what are my plans for GW18? It will either be taking a four point loss and adding two players to the squad to take me up to eight players that will be eligible to play and keep the Free Hit for another time, or activating the Free Hit and then likely taking at least one hit in GW19 to try and have as many players on the DGW as possible.
It is one I will likely think about down to the deadline with an idea of what a Free Hit team would look like this week, but also with the thoughts still running about whether the chip is more valuable later in the season.
I know there is a consensus around that the FH is the play this midweek, but I still want to take care before making my final decision with key players from the favourites already in my team. My feeling is that I could have another solid asset or two with the FH activated, but it may not be as important as keeping the powder dry for later in the season when postponements may be easier to predict as the vaccination is rolled out around the United Kingdom and the warmer conditions prevents the transmission at the rate we are seeing now.
No comments:
Post a Comment