All credit has to be given to the NFL who have not only completed the seventeen weeks of the regular season, but have managed to do that without cancelling a single game.
It wasn't all plain-sailing with some Covid-19 outbreaks meaning the schedule had to be shifted around, while the Denver Broncos had to play one game with a Wide Receiver at Quarter Back after the entire QB unit was either testing positive or being in close contact with someone who had.
While I praise the NFL and the protocols they have placed, I do think this is not the time to allow complacency to set in- the NFL PlayOffs could be compromised if we have another Denver situation, while schedule changes are much more difficult with the post-season played over the next three weeks; ultimately a team will suffer if they are forced to win games midweek and then play another top NFL team days later in the Divisional Round or Championship Game.
That is something that is difficult to factor in, but Aaron Rodgers made the best comment to his Green Bay team-mates leaving for a mini-break and that was simply be responsible, look after yourselves and 'don't get Covid'.
We are now down to the final fourteen teams in the 2020 NFL season and the new PlayOff format means only the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs will be enjoying a Bye over Super Wild Card Weekend. I think that is a real edge for those teams as they bid to reach the Super Bowl with home field advantage through the PlayOffs, although an upset is never that far away at this time of the season.
With the odds being released for Wild Card Weekend there will need to be some major upsets to prevent the top teams from making it through to the Divisional Round next weekend. My personal Ranking of the teams left in the PlayOffs has the likes of the Packers, Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills as those most likely to win the Super Bowl, although they are not that much further clear of the likes of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to believe it will be an easy path for any of the teams looking to play into next month.
It should be a really fun weekend with the extra couple of games expanding the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs and there are some good games coming up. You can read my Picks below from the Saturday and Sunday offerings.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The NFL PlayOffs are essentially a 'new season' and that is what all fourteen teams playing in the post-season will be feeling as the new Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs begin on Saturday. This looks like one of the better games on deck as the Buffalo Bills prepare to host the Indianapolis Colts and snap their long wait for a PlayOff win which stretches back twenty-six years.
There is going to be a pressure on the Bills with that long run without a PlayOff win hanging over their heads, but Josh Allen and the rest of the team have really shown another improvement on their 2019 form. The Quarter Back in particular has impressed, but Allen will know that he is going to be judged on how he plays in the post-season and whether he can show growth from last year when the Bills were beaten by the Houston Texans.
The Bills blew a big lead in that loss to the Texans and they were eventually undone in Overtime, but it was also a game played on the road. Finishing as the Number 2 Seed means the Bills are in control of playing the next two PlayOff Games at home as long as they can win on Wild Card Weekend.
Buffalo have lost their last six PlayOff Games, but the last four have been on the road and this Bills team is giving off a different vibe having won six games in a row going into the PlayOffs. They have shown a huge Offensive output which has helped the Defensive unit close out games, but they won't be taking anything for granted when the Indianapolis Colts come to town having won four of their last five games.
There has to be a 'nothing to lose' attitude from the Colts who needed the Bills beating the Miami Dolphins and then beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 to enter the PlayOffs. There is experience here through Head Coach Frank Reich and Quarter Back Philip Rivers, but the feeling is that the Colts need a bit of luck to break their way if they are going to work their way through the post-season towards the Super Bowl.
Some suggestions have been made that the Indianapolis Colts will be moving on from Rivers at Quarter Back at the end of this season regardless of how things go in the PlayOffs and some believe they could be in for Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles. Philip Rivers himself has admitted that he is not sure whether he will play another NFL season after this one comes to an end and the competitor in him will want to go out on a high.
He will be looking to lean on the Indianapolis Offensive Line and the likes of Jonathan Taylor at Running Back which has been the key for the Colts in getting into the post-season. Taylor had a huge game in Week 17 and the Colts Offensive Line have been able to open up some considerable holes in recent games, while they will be confident in doing that against the Buffalo Defensive Line which has given up almost 5 yards per carry across their last three games.
While the game is close I certainly think the Colts will have success running the ball and that will be key for the underdog who will want to keep the powerful Buffalo Offense on the sidelines for as long as possible in cold conditions. It is very important for Indianapolis to also keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains and thus giving Philip Rivers the best chance to have a big outing at Quarter Back as he looks to help lead the upset.
The Indianapolis Offensive Line has not been as effective in pass protection as they have in run blocking and so again it is important for the Colts to stay with the Bills as long as possible. Philip Rivers will want to avoid having to throw too many times into the Buffalo Secondary, which has improved down the stretch compared with their overall season form.
Throwing the ball could be a potential problem for the Colts, but they will also have serious concerns about defending the pass against Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills have seen Josh Allen come on leaps and bounds in 2020 despite a mini-slump during the course of the season, and they have also surrounded the Quarter Back with some huge talents that have helped in the development of the young player.
Josh Allen has found a chemistry with Stefon Diggs, but the likes of John Brown, Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis have all shown they can step up for the Bills in the passing game too. Injuries have slowed the Indianapolis Colts down the stretch and the Secondary have given up over 300 yards per game through the air in their last three games against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Houston.
I have no doubt that Josh Allen is able to maintain that kind of number against this Secondary as he has helped the Bills average over 350 yards per game through the air down the stretch. Buffalo have not been afraid to come out and throw the ball all over the field to put the pressure on their opponents and I think it will be difficult for the Colts to slow them down, especially with the Buffalo Offensive Line likely able to give Allen some time.
The Colts have been able to bring the pass rush pressure, but Buffalo will feel their Offensive Line can keep the pocket clean enough. Add in Josh Allen's ability to scramble around and move the ball with his legs and I do think Buffalo will be confident the passing lanes will open up for them on the Offensive side of the ball.
In recent games Buffalo also found a groove when it came to running the ball, but the Colts Defensive Line have been stout up front. The Quarter Back's ability to reach First Down markers with his legs may make it a touch more difficult for Indianapolis on the ground, while any Secondary struggles will also open the running lanes as players are sent into coverage to slow the Bills down through the air.
I've really liked the Indianapolis Colts this season and how they have been built, but I do think there have been some signs that they have been worn down over a long season. Philip Rivers was once a top Quarter Back, but I am not sure he will be able to compete in a shoot out with the younger and fresher Josh Allen who looks to have found a really good rhythm at Quarter Back.
It might be tense at times, which is down to the long absence of winning a PlayOff Game, but I think Buffalo will find the big plays in the passing game which will force Indianapolis to take to the air to keep up. Ultimately I am not sure Rivers can do that at this stage of his career and I like the Buffalo Bills to continue their strong covering ability, the mark of a very good team.
Buffalo are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the home favourite and they have covered the spread in their last eight games down the stretch. I do have to admit I really admire Frank Reich and the Head Coach does have the Colts playing competitively, but they are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog.
The Colts are not used to being the underdog and so they may use that as motivation to 'show their critics' but I think there is too much Buffalo Offensive firepower which leads to a win by a Touchdown.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: In Week 17 the Los Angeles Rams were able to end the season for one of their NFC West rivals and they will be looking to do the same on Super Wild Card Weekend when travelling to the Seattle Seahawks. These two teams shared out a win apiece in the regular season, but the Seahawks have got home field advantage having ended the year with the Number 3 Seed and with positive injury news meaning they could be going into the post-season at full strength.
There was also better news for the Los Angeles Rams this week as it looks like Jared Goff is on course to return at Quarter Back for the road team. The Rams have reached the Super Bowl with Goff at Quarter Back before and his return means John Wolford will return to a backup role for Los Angeles despite leading the win over the Cardinals in Week 17.
John Wolford was massively helped by the Defensive unit, while Jared Goff will likely need the same level of support as the Rams have struggled Offensively for some weeks. The Quarter Back will be making his return against the Seattle Seahawks who he was facing when he fractured his thumb, but I do think the Los Angeles Rams will be comfortable with their chances in the PlayOffs.
The Rams had lost two in a row before finishing the regular season with a victory over the Arizona Cardinals, but there is a feeling that they can have considerably more Offensive success against this Seattle Defense than they did when they met last month. On that occasion Los Angeles were only able to muster up 9 points, but both teams struggled to move the ball with consistency so there is going to be some pressure on Jared Goff if he does get rewarded with the start.
Most will be interested to see who Sean McVay picks as his starting Quarter Back, but there are a couple of key performers who need to be cleared on this side of the ball. Andrew Whitworth is hoping to be able to play on the Los Angeles Offensive Line and Jamal Adams is adamant he will play for the Seattle Seahawks at Safety and both players are very important for their respective teams.
An improvement in the Seattle Defensive Line's performances against the run have been critical for the Seahawks producing four wins in a row to end the season and clinch the NFC West Division. It has come at an important time as the Seahawks Offense has not really found the groove they had earlier this season and it will be up to Seattle to try and win at the line of scrimmage to take control of this game.
You know Sean McVay will look for ways to get the Rams moving even if the run is stopped and that may be by employing short passes, screens or Wide Receiver screens to try and stay in front of the sticks and give Jared Goff the best chance for success. John Wolford showed off his ability to run the ball last week in the win over the Cardinals and if he starts at Quarter Back it may give the Rams Offense another crease, but I do think Los Angeles will struggle for consistency running the ball as they did when the teams met in this Stadium last month.
The more important question for the Rams has to be whether they can get more from the passing game which was not able to expose the holes that have opened up in the Seattle Secondary all season. There have been some obvious signs of improvement from the Seahawks who tend to be a 'bend, don't break' Defensive unit, but even then you would expect any Quarter Back to have more success than the Rams enjoyed against Seattle in their most recent meeting.
It will be interesting to see if Whitworth is up to speed on the Offensive Line because he will be facing a Seattle pass rush which has come alive in recent weeks. They will be looking to force Goff or Wolford to throw the ball much more quickly than they would like and it will also aid the Secondary in being able to make a few stops in this one.
Stopping the run will be something the Seahawks will feel they can do, but I really think the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line is the best of the Lines along the trenches. In recent games Seattle have been able to get Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde going, while Russell Wilson is capable as a runner too, but the Seahawks did not have much success on the ground against the Rams in their last meeting and there is little to suggest they will have a lot more in this one.
However, one positive is that the Seahawks Offensive Line looks like it could be as healthy as it has been in several weeks and that may be good news for Russell Wilson. After opening up with massive MVP credentials, Wilson has come off the boil as his protection has weakened and the game plan has perhaps been adjusted to establish the ground game.
Russell Wilson will need all the protection he can get against this Rams Defensive Line led by Aaron Donald and it is the extended time that may see him find a way to exploit the Rams Secondary. Jalen Ramsey has been playing at an incredibly high level and will feel he can lock down DK Metcalf again barring the Seahawks moving the big Receiver to different spots in the field where Ramsey may not follow, but Tyler Lockett is a big threat for Seattle.
The Quarter Back situation definitely feels like it is giving the Seahawks and edge and you can't discount a team that has won every home PlayOff Game under Pete Carroll. If Jared Goff was at 100% I do think the Rams could cause problems, but Seattle look to be playing with confidence and momentum and that can roll over into this game.
The home team has won the last five games between these Divisional rivals and Seattle won by 11 points when hosting the Rams last month.
Los Angeles are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games in Seattle and I do think the Seahawks will be able to get one or two big plays from Russell Wilson which helps them win this game and cover the number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team Pick: Most fans have been pretty down on the NFC East this season and there were plenty out there making it clear that winning the Number 5 Seed in the NFC was effectively going to mean an easy win on Wild Card Weekend. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers locked that up and they are considered big favourites to beat the Washington Football Team who might have been thankful to Doug Pederson in securing the NFC East Division title in Week 17.
Washington had to win at Philadelphia to win the Division, but the game was very, very competitive going into the Fourth Quarter before Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson decided he would put in what is effectively a third string Quarter Back. Unsurprisingly things went pear shaped for the Eagles from there and the decision drew the ire of the New York Giants who missed out on a PlayOff spot.
Ron Rivera won't care how his team got into the PlayOffs and the Head Coach has shown he can motivate teams to play above their level in one off games before. His 7 win Carolina Panthers team won the NFC South in the 2014 NFL season and that team were able to upset the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals at home in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.
There are similarities here as his 7 win Washington team face an 11 win Tampa Bay team on Saturday evening, but Ron Rivera will be reminding his players that every team begins at 0-0 in the PlayOffs. A bigger concern for the Head Coach seems to be getting Quarter Back Alex Smith as healthy as possible and Rivera did admit that he would have loved to have been given one of the Sunday slots this Wild Card Weekend to give his veteran player as much time to recover as possible.
Over the course of the season you would think the Quarter Back would be the best chance for Washington to earn the upset, but down the stretch the Buccaneers Defensive Line did begin to struggle when it comes to stopping the run. The overall numbers remained strong, but the Buccaneers have given up 4.4 yards per carry across their last three games and it is only the points being scored by the Tampa Bay Offense which may have forced opponents to have to move away from the run.
The Football Team will be hoping Antonio Gibson is going to be healthier than he looked last week as he remains the premier Running Back on the roster and it will be important for Washington to run the ball. Controlling the clock is important and it may also benefit Alex Smith who should have success throwing against the Tampa Bay Defense.
It is also important to run the ball to help the Washington Offensive Line when it comes to protecting Alex Smith as it could just slow down the Tampa Bay pass rush for long enough to allow him to make some plays. Last week the Eagles were able to get a lot of pressure on Smith throughout the game which has meant the Quarter Back has been nursing some injuries over the week, but the Football Team may feel they can at least have a touch more consistency behind their Offensive unit.
Scoring enough points to be competitive won't be easy for Washington if Tampa Bay continue to play as they have been with Tom Brady leading the way. The suggestion is that Mike Evans will be ready to go having come out of the Week 17 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and that means Brady will have some talented Receivers to make plays for him.
On the face of things you would think the Buccaneers are able to have considerable success throwing the ball, but the Washington pass Defense has been the strength of the team and the reason they have made the PlayOffs. Much of that is down to the front four who have some extremely talented youngsters leading the way and it will be the pressure on Tom Brady which will be key to slowing down the Buccaneers.
In the past we have seen Tom Brady rattled by teams who can get an intense about of pass rush player with limited numbers rushing him and that is something that fits this Washington Defensive Line to a tee. Chase Young is the headline name, but there is talent across the line and I do think they will be able to at least give the Football Team a chance of the upset.
A lot will come down to that battle as any time being given to Brady will result in his classy Receivers finding spaces to exploit. It is also hard to really believe in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette can establish the run to the point where they slow down the Football Team pass rush and I do think this Defensive Line will be able to keep this game close.
While Tampa Bay have been strong against the spread in the last few weeks, Washington have to be respected having gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games as the underdog.
The Buccaneers are the more likely winners as I am not entirely sure that Washington can score enough points to secure the upset, but Tom Brady is 0-4 against the spread in late primetime slots this season. This is the same slot the Buccaneers have on Saturday night and in the past it is those teams with fearsome Defensive Lines that have been able to give Brady some trouble and I will look for Washington to remain within the number set.
I will expect the Football Team to be highly motivated by the oddsmakers line for this game and that disrespect coupled with their Head Coach's experience of overcoming the odds in the Wild Card Round is important here. Ron Rivera's Carolina Panthers actually beat Bruce Arians that season in the Wild Card Round too and I think Rivera may get the better of Arians when it comes to this spread too.
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans Pick: A five game winning run has helped turn the Baltimore Ravens season around after it looked like they may have missed out on a PlayOff spot at 6-5. There is a confidence that this team is peaking at the right time and they have a chance to earn some revenge for the Divisional Round loss to the Tennessee Titans at home last year.
The Titans are back in the post-season, but this time they go in as the AFC South Division Winners and that means they will be hosting at least one PlayOff Game. Last year the Titans managed to reach the AFC Championship Game and led against eventual Super Bowl Champions Kansas City, while road wins at New England and Baltimore will mean this Titans team has plenty of experience to fall back upon.
What they don't have is a very good Defensive unit and I do think that has to be a major concern for Tennessee entering the PlayOffs this season. You can't expect to beat some of the best teams in the NFL with a team who literally can't stop anyone on the other side of the ball, but the Titans have managed to somehow win 11 games including three of their last four to secure the AFC South.
I do think there is a chance for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens to move the ball with some consistency in this big PlayOff Game and I would be disappointed if the Quarter Back is not able to have a big outing. There is some pressure on Jackson which he will acknowledge himself and that is down to losing both PlayOff Games that he has started for the Baltimore Ravens including the upset defeat to Tennessee as a double digit favourite last season.
However this game looks like a good chance for Jackson to have success both with his legs and with his arm- the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to stop teams running through them throughout the season, while the Secondary has been exposed by injuries and very little pass rush pressure generated up front.
Lamar Jackson is able to run the ball himself, but he will be well supported by JK Dobbins who has taken over as the main Running Back for the Baltimore Ravens. Both should be able to keep the Ravens in front of the chains and earn some big gains on the ground and that should open the door for the Quarter Back to hit his Receivers Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown down the field for some big plays.
The Ravens should have a very good balance Offensively which makes them very dangerous, but this should be anything but a one-sided game. While Baltimore will expect to dominate behind their Offensive Line, the Titans will also believe they have an Offensive Line which is going to be able to rip open some huge holes for what many may consider to be the best Running Back in the NFL.
Everyone knows that the Titans want to establish Derrick Henry early and often, but that has not made it any easier to stop a Back who has put up over 2000 yards on the ground this season. I do wonder if that will catch up with him as we enter the PlayOffs, but Henry smashed the Houston Texans in Week 17 and looks to be getting stronger as Defensive Lines begin to get banged up down the stretch.
Derrick Henry is the key and he will be keen to get after the Baltimore Defensive Line which has allowed teams to produce 5 yards per carry on average in their last three games. Those have been against weak teams, but the Titans are anything but a weak Offense and I do think Henry will open things up for Ryan Tannehill.
The Quarter Back is capable of making plays with his legs when teams focus in on Derrick Henry, but the big question for Ryan Tannehill is whether he can make enough plays with his arm to keep the Ravens from crowding the line of scrimmage. Ryan Tannehill has really played well for the Titans since taking over as the starting Quarter Back, and I am not going to put a lot of stock into the recent Baltimore performances when it comes to defending the pass.
Baltimore have simply not played very good Offenses as they have put the wins together and I do think the likes of AJ Brown and Corey Davis can win battles on the outside to give Ryan Tannehill options in the passing game. The Ravens may have better balance Offensively, but the Titans are likely going to feel pretty good about the way they can move the ball and they have to be motivating themselves with feelings that people still don't believe in them.
Over the last twelve months they have upset the Ravens twice on the road, yet here the Titans are set as the home underdog and a relatively big one too. The line doesn't make much sense to me if I am being honest, and I was expecting this to perhaps be a pick 'em with the feeling that Baltimore are going to be a team that is publicly backed.
In reality I do think the Titans have matched up well with the Ravens and they can perhaps win this game outright, but I will look to take the points on offer.
You may have to take a shorter price to go through the key number 3, but I think that would be very important with this game likely to end with a Field Goal win either way.
There are some strong trends favouring the Baltimore Ravens, but I do think Mike Vrabel will get the very best out of the Titans with the 'no one believes in us' line likely to have been used over and over this past week. The Titans look to be underrated here and I think they can be backed with the points being given to them.
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Teams that won at least 10 games missed out on the PlayOffs on the AFC side of the bracket, but the 8-8 Chicago Bears are one of two teams without a winning record that are playing on the NFC side. They held their own destiny in their hands in Week 17, but the blow out loss to the Green Bay Packers meant the Bears were thankful to the Los Angeles Rams who beat the Arizona Cardinals.
That might mean the Bears can enter the post-season with a 'nothing to lose' attitude as all teams begin at 0-0, but they are going to need to be a lot better if they are going to progress any further.
And while the majority of players may feel it is a bonus to be playing in the PlayOffs after a poor stretch in the middle of the regular season, the likes of Head Coach Matt Nagy and Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky have to show they are capable of taking the Bears forward in the months ahead. I do think the PlayOff spot means the Head Coach will remain in charge, but Trubisky's position at Quarter Back remains unsure and an early loss in the PlayOffs coupled with the blow out defeat in Week 17 to the Packers will have many believing the Bears should look for a new signal caller.
This does feel a very difficult match up for Trubisky with the New Orleans Saints Defensive unit continuing to play at a high level and I think it may be one that underlines the belief that the Bears need to look elsewhere when it comes to the Quarter Back position. During a strong end to the season Mitchell Trubisky has been able to lean on the Chicago Offensive Line which has opened up some big holes for David Montgomery, but the Saints Defensive Line have been capable up front and that will mean the pressure is all on Trubisky.
He struggled against the Green Bay Secondary which is a strong one, but Mitchell Trubisky can't hope to have a lot more success against this Saints Secondary which is talented. They will be looking for the pass rush pressure to get around Trubisky and force him into some poor decisions, but Chicago have to hope their Receivers can stand up for their beleaguered Quarter Back and at least give him a chance to make some plays.
While the game is close the Bears will be able to run the ball and try and control the clock, but things change dramatically if New Orleans are able to move a couple of scores ahead. The last couple of weeks has seen Drew Brees improving as he continues his recovery from a rib injury, but he will also be boosted by some key returns this week.
Alvin Kamara has been taken off the Covid-19 list and he should be available with the entire Running Back corps who missed out in Week 17, while the passing game will benefit from the return of Michael Thomas who has had an injury hit season. In Thomas' absence, New Orleans have found a couple of other Receivers to make plays for Drew Brees and I think the addition of their top Wide Receiver will make the Saints very dangerous.
Holes up front on the Chicago Defensive Line have allowed teams to establish the run against them and I do think Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be able to have strong performances running the ball. The Saints Offensive Line have been very strong both when it comes to run blocking and pass protection so the feeling is that the Saints will be able to move the ball with a lot more consistency than the Chicago Bears.
As strong as the Chicago Bears Defensive unit has been, there is an opportunity to attack the Secondary and Drew Brees still looks to have enough to be successful in this game.
I do have to be concerned with the way the Saints have seen their recent seasons ended in the PlayOffs with upsets and some miracle plays going against them. That make the number look very big on the spread on Super Wild Card Weekend, but the Saints looks considerably stronger with the likes of Kamara and Thomas back, while the Chicago Bears have been fortunate to reach the PlayOffs.
The Saints are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the favourite and double digit favourites in the PlayOffs are 7-1 against the spread going back to 2011.
We have seen the Chicago Bears struggle to be competitive as a big underdog and they are 0-4 against the spread when given 6 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are also 6-18 against the spread in their last twenty-four games when coming off a double digit loss at home and I think the Saints will have too much Offensive firepower here as they move into the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: A number of starters were rested for the Week 17 game at the Cleveland Browns, but the Pittsburgh Steelers almost came close to the upset which may have knocked the Browns out of the PlayOffs. There was every chance that the Steelers were going to have to host Cleveland again in the Super Wild Card Round so the decision to rest key starters looks like being a good one by Mike Tomlin who knows anything less than a place in the Divisional Round will make this a disappointing season.
The Steelers have lost some momentum with four losses in their last five games, but they did finish with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and will believe having some of their better players resting last week will really benefit them.
That also means Pittsburgh would have kept some of their Offensive plays under wraps for this Wild Card Game, but the same cannot be said for the Cleveland Browns who had to dig deep to beat the Steelers last week. It has snapped a long wait to return to the PlayOffs for the Browns, but they are considerable underdogs this week.
It has been a difficult week for the Cleveland Browns who will be without their Head Coach and a number of other players through positive Covid-19 tests. Olivier Vernon suffered an injury which means his season is over and the Browns are going to be challenged by this Steelers team who have had a number of their own players return with the additional time to recover.
Joe Haden will be missing in the Secondary, but the Browns will be looking to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rather than first time PlayOff Quarter Back Baker Mayfield. Both Chubb and Hunt have played well behind a powerful Cleveland Offensive Line and they should have some success establishing the run against a Pittsburgh Defensive Line which has given up some big plays on the ground throughout the season.
Teams have had to focus on establishing the run to loosen up the Pittsburgh pass Defense, but that has been difficult all season. There is a considerable pass rush the Steelers are able to generate and even the injury to Bud Dupree has not slowed down the pressure up front, and it could be hard for Cleveland to keep Baker Mayfield upright if he needs to move the chains from third and long spots.
As long as the game is close the Browns will feel good about their chances of moving the ball, but they won't be looking for Baker Mayfield to have to put the game on his shoulders. The Quarter Back has been inconsistent behind the Offensive Line and Mayfield has shown some inaccuracy which could be a real problem against this strong Pittsburgh Secondary.
Much seems to depend on how competitive the Browns can keep the game, but I do think the rest will help Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Offensive unit to get back on track. Earlier this season we saw the veteran Quarter Back playing at a very good level and I do think he will have benefited from having two weeks between games having not had a Bye Week during the course of the regular season.
There are some talented Receivers that the Steelers can look to and the return of Eric Ebron is another huge boost for the entire Offense. Injuries and positive tests look to have hurt the Cleveland Secondary and I do think Roethlisberger is going to have a strong outing which can help take the game away from the Browns.
Even Mason Rudolph was able to have some success against Cleveland last week and the Pittsburgh Offensive Line looks strong and capable of giving Big Ben as much time as he needs. With the Receivers looking like they have rediscovered a way of holding onto the ball rather than having the drops that were blighting them a few weeks ago, I think the Steelers will be able to move the ball through the air with consistency and strong success.
For much of the season the Steelers have leant on Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back and that is because Pittsburgh have not been able to establish the run as they would have liked. The Steelers Offensive Line has struggled to open holes for James Connor or Benny Snell, and I think they are unlikely to get much joy from the Cleveland Defensive Line.
With that in mind I think we will see Pittsburgh looking to throw the ball around and I do think the conditions will allow Roethlisberger to do that.
I like the Steelers to win and cover this final Wild Card Game and that is largely because I feel they are going to have too much Offensive power for the Browns to stay with them. Baker Mayfield is a first time PlayOff Quarter Back and those players have tended to struggle in their debut start in the post-season, while the Browns have a poor 1-4-1 record against the spread in their last six games at Heinz Field.
The Steelers have a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine at home, while the Browns have an awful record on the road and as an underdog. Cleveland have some important players missing and I think Pittsburgh look healthier at this stage of the season which will give them the edge and the ability to put up enough points to cover the mark.
Cleveland struggled when playing against their AFC North rivals in the regular season and their poor record in Pittsburgh is likely to be extended here.
MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Washington Football Team + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
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