I have to say I love the NFL PlayOffs, but I did not love the way the Super Wild Card Round Weekend ended for the Picks.
We move into the Divisional Round which has been a little predictable in recent seasons with the rest that the top two Seeds used to get, but things have changed in the 2020 season and now only one team was resting last weekend from each Conference.
It will be interesting to see what kind of trends come out from the Number 2 Seed in each Conference in the coming years with their activity in the Wild Card Round, although I would expect the NFL to decide to expand the PlayOffs to eight teams from each Conference sooner rather than later. That is likely to happen even though the regular season will move to seventeen games, perhaps even as soon as 2021, although I do wonder if it will weaken the need for teams to push themselves for the Number 1 Seed in the years ahead.
There does look to be four very good looking games in the Divisional Round of the 2020 PlayOffs and I am looking forward to seeing them all. The second game on both Saturday and Sunday is the one I am most keenly interested in on both days, but it should be a very good weekend regardless.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Super Wild Card Round lived up to the expectations, but the Divisional Round looks like it could be even better with the NFL down to eight teams who can win the Super Bowl. First up is the opening PlayOff game for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC as the Green Bay Packers face the Los Angeles Rams who upset the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Wild Card Round.
Winning any PlayOff game has to be celebrated, but it was not a perfect day for the Rams who lost their starting Quarter Back John Wolford very early on in the victory. John Wolford has already been ruled out for the Divisional Round game and that means Jared Goff will have to show he has overcome the pain and awkwardness that is associated with a broken thumb, although the Quarter Back is more positive about his diagnosis than Head Coach Sean McVay sounds like he is.
Regardless it is Goff who will be starting on Saturday, but the other key elements from the win over Seattle has to be the injuries sustained by Aaron Donald and Cooper Kuup. Both are not going to sit out the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs, but you do have to wonder if they are going to be anything near as effective as they can be at their best and that is an issue for the Rams against a rested Number 1 Seed.
Both Donald and Kuup have said they are feeling ok and are ready to go, and they are going to be very important for the Los Angeles Rams who will also be dealing with some incredibly tough conditions. It is doubly difficult when you are used to Californian weather in January rather than Wisconsin and I do think that will be an issue for the Rams that is much more difficult to factor in.
It is going to be difficult for Jared Goff and the entire Offensive unit when it comes to moving the ball with some consistency and it was the Defensive side of the ball which helped them see off the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Wild Card game. The entire Rams playbook is opened up by how well Los Angeles are able to run the ball so they will lean heavily on Cam Akers again this week and over the years it has been a weakness for the Green Bay Packers to shut down the run.
While the game is close and competitive I do think the Rams can have some success moving the ball on the ground and that will open up the game for Jared Goff. Even then I do have to wonder how Goff's thumb is going to feel in the cold of Green Bay in January, while he will also be well aware that the Packers pass rush has been efficient and the Secondary is the strength of this Defensive unit.
The Rams can thank their Defensive unit for helping the team score 30 points last week, but before that they had not scored more than 20 points in three consecutive games. That should underline the issues the team may have in this one in scoring enough points to win the game, although Los Angeles will be looking to lean on the Defense again in this big game.
Stopping Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers team which has scored at least 24 points in each of their last nine games is going to be a big challenge for the Rams no matter how well they have played of late. Aaron Rodgers has played like the MVP all season as he has continued to get the best out of the Receivers he is working with, while the Quarter Back is very much on the same page as his Head Coach despite some suggestions they don't see eye to eye last season.
That is a positive, but more of a concern for the Number 1 Seed is the injuries on the Offensive Line- that Line has been key to keeping Aaron Rodgers upright and also opening some big holes on the ground, but both aspects of the game could be challenged by this Rams Defensive Line which has been a huge success for Los Angeles this season.
There have been signs that the Defensive Line is now a little banged up and that is possible that the likes of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams can have success running the ball, but that would have been a stronger feeling if Green Bay had their full Offensive Line available. Both Jones and Williams will be important to just give the Packers the balance they are going to need and to also keep Rodgers and the passing game in front of the sticks.
All season we have seen Aaron Rodgers produce some big drives as he targets Davante Adams, but that connection is likely to be disrupted by Jalen Ramsey. The lockdown Corner Back has been able to get the better of every Receiver he has faced this season and is expected to follow Adams wherever he lines up, although I do think Green Bay's Head Coach Matt LaFleur will be looking to scheme Adams open where he can.
It will mean others need to step up for Rodgers in the passing game, although the Rams Secondary have continued to play at a high level and finding spaces won't be easy. Aaron Rodgers will have to be careful of Interceptions, but I do think having the time to prepare and having Matt LaFleur's inside knowledge of Sean McVay's workings will give the Packers the edge.
Number 1 Seeds as the home favourite having not played well against the spread in the Divisional Round in recent seasons, but I do think there are enough factors to favour the Packers here. Key players are banged up for the Los Angeles Rams, the weather is going to be a really difficult one for the Rams to deal with and Aaron Rodgers has generally been very strong at home through his career with Green Bay.
The Rams do have a solid record as a road underdog and covered in that spot in the outright upset in the Super Wild Card Round, but Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home PlayOff games. They are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the PlayOff favourite and I do think Aaron Rodgers will be able to make a few more plays than Jared Goff which will make the difference on the day.
I did mention that Number 1 Seeds as Divisional Round favourites have not played well in recent seasons, but teams coming off an upset win in the Wild Card Round are 25-35-1 against the spread in their next game.
I also love the fact that teams who lost in the Conference Championship Game are 21-3 against the spread in their first PlayOff game the next season when facing an opponent off a double digit win.
Teams who are also playing consecutive road games in the PlayOffs are just 3-9 against the spread in the last twelve in that spot and I think Aaron Rodgers will make enough plays to win the game and cover the mark.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There are some quality Divisional Round games in the NFL PlayOffs this weekend, but there is an argument to be made that this may be the best of the lot.
Both the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens have played really well in the 2020 season and I really don't think either will feel inferior to the other. That isn't always the case with teams even at this stage of the PlayOffs and I really do think the game could go down to the wire as both of their Super Wild Card Round games went last week.
The weather conditions may be the biggest factor of all with cold and potential snow around, conditions which have already worried Lamar Jackson who is simply not used to running on fields that have been affected like they could be in Buffalo on Saturday. At the end of the day there is nothing that Jackson can do about the weather and the key for the Ravens is making sure they can play their game as confidently as they can.
There is no doubt that Baltimore want to play a certain way Offensively and that is largely running the ball and having dual-threat Quarter Back Lamar Jackson keeping teams guessing with what he is going to do whenever he drops back. It was Jackson's legs which helped the Ravens see off the Tennessee Titans in the Super Wild Card Round Weekend, but only big plays from the Defensive unit covered up some of the Offensive difficulties.
If Jackson and company had some problems scoring against Tennessee, they are going to have a much more difficult time against the ever improving Buffalo Bills. Earlier in the season the Bills Defensive unit struggled, but they are improving at all levels and Sean McDermott is a Defensive minded Head Coach who will believe he can limit this Ravens Offense.
When the Ravens won here last season, they only managed a total of 257 Offensive yards so McDermott will be confidence in the schemes his team can put together here. Having a tough field underfoot will only aid Buffalo's Defensive Line who have still struggled to really clamp down on the run as well as they would have liked, but I also believe they will be looking to make sure Baltimore have to try and beat them through the air in this game.
Lamar Jackson doesn't have the best Receiving corps, but there is enough talent here to believe he can have some successes throwing the ball down the field. I would expect the Quarter Back to have some time to make his throws and I do think the likes of Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown will be able to get open for him, although Jackson will find things much more difficult if he is stuck in third and long.
I do think Baltimore will have their Offensive successes, but it is also difficult to see them having consistent success considering how they have played in recent weeks. Add the tough conditions which don't really suit the Ravens and the Defensive mind they are facing, Baltimore will need their own Defensive unit to step up and try and slow what has been a very productive Buffalo Offense.
The last meeting between Buffalo and Baltimore saw the Ravens leave here with a seven point win, but Josh Allen had an awful game. He has come on leaps and bounds in 2020 barring a small run where the Quarter Back had struggled, and Buffalo have really aided Allen by providing him with some big time Receiving threats.
I would not get that carried away by Baltimore's recent performances in the Secondary because they have not played a team with the kind of passing capabilities as the Buffalo Bills. Even last week they faced a Tennessee team which likes to run first and hope that opens up the passing lanes, and there was a real opportunity for Ryan Tannehill to make some plays late on which may have turned that game in the favour of the Titans.
Simply put I am not sure Josh Allen will allow those same opportunities to pass him by with Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox all capable of having big games. That is not even counting Gabriel Davis who has played well as a rookie Receiver and I do think Allen is going to erase memories of the last time he faced the Ravens when he had just 105 passing yards.
Josh Allen is also capable with his legs, but he will predominantly be leaning on Devin Singletary now that Zack Moss has been lost for the season. At least Singletary will be fresh having split carries all season and he has shown he is capable of being the clear number one at Running Back so I do think the Bills will have decent balance Offensively which may give them the edge in what feels like a very competitive game.
I have a lot of respect for both of these teams and I do think it is going to be incredibly tense right down to the final pass.
However I do like the way Josh Allen has grown into his role at Buffalo and I do think Lamar Jackson may have one or two issues with the conditions expected as they are.
Lamar Jackson has led Baltimore to a 7-1 record against the spread in the last eight games as the road underdog which is not easy to ignore, while the Ravens are considerably more experienced with the post-season than the Buffalo Bills.
However the Buffalo Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite, while I have already mentioned the trend that teams on consecutive road games in the PlayOffs are 3-9 against the spread in the last twelve in that spot.
I did think there were one or two nerves shown by the Buffalo Bills in their win over the Indianapolis Colts on Super Wild Card Round Weekend, but that may have been down to the inexperience. Coming through that game was very important to the development of the Bills and I think Josh Allen outplays Lamar Jackson at key times to help his team reach the AFC Championship Game, one they could host if the Cleveland Browns earn another upset on Sunday.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The Wild Card Round lived up to its billing with one of the wildest First Quarters you will see in the PlayOffs being produced in the final game of the weekend. The Cleveland Browns found themselves 28-0 in front of the Pittsburgh Steelers thanks to some monumental mistakes from their hosts and they eventually held on for the victory and a place in the Divisional Round.
The Covid-19 issues and the absence of the Head Coach looked like it would be too much for the Cleveland Browns to overcome, but they took full advantage of the unimpressive start made by the Steelers. There has to be a concern with the amount of success Ben Roethlisberger did have when throwing the ball though and that is especially the case as the Browns prepare to take on the AFC Number 1 Seed and defending Super Bowl Champions.
A well rested Kansas City Chiefs team will be very difficult to stop, especially at Arrowhead Stadium, but the Cleveland Browns have to focus on themselves and do what they do best when they have the ball.
Namely that is run the ball, score Touchdowns instead of settling for Field Goals and try and keep Patrick Mahomes and the powerful Kansas City Chiefs Offense on the sidelines for as long as possible.
A strong Cleveland Offensive Line is going to be the key for the Browns if they want to be competitive against what many will consider to be the team to beat in the post-season. The Browns have seen that Offensive Line open up some big holes for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and it may have been lost in the overall performance and result as to how well the Line played against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.
I did mention in the break down of that game that the Steelers had shown vulnerability on the Defensive Line, but it is also an issue for the Kansas City Chiefs who have given up some big plays on the ground throughout the season. As long as this game is competitive, I would expect Cleveland to be able to keep the Offense in front of the chains by running the ball with Chubb and Hunt and both could also be key performers in the passing game as Cleveland look for some balance on this side of the ball.
Baker Mayfield played a largely strong game last week at Quarter Back and he will be feeling pretty good about his chances in this game too. There are some question marks about Mayfield and his accuracy and temperament at times, but I do think he has found a decent rhythm and should be given the time he needs to survey the field and look to attack this Chiefs Secondary.
He will have to be accurate when he does throw the ball down the field because the Chiefs thrive on picking up mistakes, but there are holes in the Secondary that can be exploited too. Odell Beckham Jr has missed much of the season, but his absence has not prevented Baker Mayfield being able to make plays down the field with the likes of Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper becoming more important in each passing week.
The Browns should be able to move the ball, but the bigger factor in this game is whether they can stall Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for long enough to potentially secure the upset. The Chiefs will be well rested having been the only team in the AFC with a Bye through the Super Wild Card Round, but it hasn't meant a return to the full complement of their starting Offensive Line and that may be a potential issue for the big favourites.
I really do focus on Mahomes because I think the Quarter Back is going to have to make the plays with his arm if Kansas City are going to win this game. They have lost Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell has proven to not be as effective a runner between the Tackles, although he is a threat in the passing game as we saw in his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Even if Bell had been playing better than we have seen, Kansas City's Offensive Line won't be able to blast holes through the Cleveland Defensive Line who have been able to clamp down on the run in recent games. Of course they might leave some more spaces up front as they drop men into coverage to slow Patrick Mahomes, although the injury report seems to be leaning towards the Browns having key Corners returning after missing some time.
That may give Cleveland more belief in their Secondary without the extra players dropping in, but even then this is a Kansas City team with a host of top Receiving threats that are likely going to have the edge in the game. Patrick Mahomes may have a bit more pressure around him with the issues on the Offensive Line, but not enough to believe the Quarter Back is not going to have another big post-season outing as he did when leading the Kansas City Chiefs to the Super Bowl twelve months ago.
It is a threat that demands massive respect even if the spread looks a very big one in this game and raises some doubts, but I do think Cleveland are being given too many points here.
While I have gone with the trend that sees teams on back to back road games struggling in the second of those games in the PlayOffs, Cleveland are also off an upset win in the Wild Card Round and those teams have really found it difficult when it comes to backing up the performance in the Divisional Round.
Double digit favourites have a 6-1 record against the spread in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs over the last eleven years, and Andy Reid is coming off a Bye week when he usually is able to Coach his players to successes.
That all goes against Cleveland, but I do think this has the makings of a closer game than expected and this is a lot of points to be getting in the PlayOffs. Teams who have won eleven games in the regular season are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine PlayOff games when set as the double digit underdog and the Browns have to use the layers as motivation with a 'no one believes in us' mantra to drive them forward.
Baker Mayfield has a poor record as a double digit underdog, but Patrick Mahomes is only 5-7 against the spread when being asked to cover at least 10 points. His PlayOff performances from last season are intimidating and hard to oppose, but Cleveland do look to match up well with Kansas City as long as they don't overthink things.
The Chiefs have not covered the spread in their last four home games in the regular season and they did find themselves in tough positions in the PlayOff games last season before fighting back and destroying Houston and Tennessee. That would be a fear in this one, but I think the Browns will be able to lean on their running game and have Mayfield make enough big throws to stay with the Number 1 Seed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: When Tom Brady decided he would move to the NFC South with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it felt inevitable that we would see his team facing off against rivals the New Orleans Saints in the PlayOffs. This is the game with two former Super Bowl Champion Quarter Backs, and two future Hall of Famers at the position, facing each other for the right to play in the NFC Championship Game next week and I do think it is the game that will be bringing in the most eyes to the NFL on Divisional Round Weekend.
No one will doubt what Brady and Drew Brees have achieved, but I do think the latter will only really be happy moving into what looks like a retirement if he can get his hands on the Vince Lombardi Trophy for a second time. Most are expecting Brees to hang his helmet up for the last time at the end of this season regardless of how it finishes up, but he is playing well enough and has a bunch of talented, healthy team mates who will think the Saints deserve their spot back in the Super Bowl having been undone by a number of ill-timed plays over the last few years.
The Saints were comfortable winners on Super Wild Card Weekend and they have the mental advantage of not only hosting this Divisional Round game, but they have also swept the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season. And while the Buccaneers were able to see off the Washington Football Team last week, most will accept it was a much closer game than they anticipated and there are some question marks about the health of some of the key players on the roster.
Casual fans will be looking out for how Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Ronald Jones have all been limited in practice this week, although it would be a surprise if the two Receivers are missing. Jones is already considered a game-time decision, but it does sound like Tom Brady will have his full complement of passing options.
However bigger news may be the injury on the Offensive Line which sees Alex Cappa missing and it is something that will concern Brady. In the past we have seen the teams who have had the most success against Tom Brady have been those who can get into his face without having to blitz, and New Orleans will certainly fit that bill and even more so with an Offensive Linemen missing for the Buccaneers.
The Saints should be able to bring the pass rush because the Defensive Line have remained very strong when it comes to playing the run and they should be able to keep Tampa Bay in awkward passing downs and distance. That will allow this Line to get after Tom Brady who may have to target Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin out of the slot as Mike Evans has regularly struggled to deal with the Saints coverage in his career and is banged up.
I find it very difficult to believe Tom Brady is not going to have some success in this game, but his performances against the Saints this season have to be a slight concern. While the Buccaneers are averaging almost 300 passing yards per game through the season, they have been held to 224 yards and 186 yards through the air against the New Orleans Saints and even the arrival of Antonio Brown is unlikely to really burst those numbers open.
Sean Payton will believe the Defensive side of the ball can look after themselves, but he will be looking for his own Offense to kick on and pick up from where Washington left off last week. Devin White is back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and that cannot be underestimated, but the Buccaneers have been struggling Defensively down the stretch and the Football Team were able to move the ball effectively against Tampa Bay on Super Wild Card Weekend despite starting a third string Quarter Back.
Drew Brees is not a third string Quarter Back even if he does look like a player that is on the downward slope of his career. Over the course of the season the Buccaneers have played the run very well, but in recent games there have been signs of wear and tear on the Defensive Line and so Brees should be able to hand the ball off to Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara and at least be placed in front of the chains.
I also expect this Saints team to scheme in some plays for Taysom Hill out of the Quarter Back position and so they may have more success on the ground than some may imagine. Even then, it is likely that Alvin Kamara will be a big threat sneaking out of the backfield and catching passes from Drew Brees and then producing solid yards after catch to keep the Saints moving.
A big piece of the Offense is back too and Michael Thomas looked good last week and can only be better with another week of practice under his belt. The Wide Receiver has had a difficult season with injuries, but Thomas is back at the right time and just opens up the passing lanes for the Saints with teams needing to make sure they double the top threat.
It should mean Drew Brees is able to pick up from where Taylor Heinicke left off last week and the Quarter Back was able to dissect this Defensive unit when helping the Saints crush the Buccaneers on the road in the regular season.
The veteran Quarter Back is well protected by his Offensive Line and I do think the Saints are the right play in this Divisional Round game.
Beating a team three times in the same season has regularly been seen as a difficult task, but teams have managed to do that more often than not in the PlayOffs in recent years. Those teams are 5-2 straight up in the last seven occasions we have seen the match ups occur and I do think the Saints showed they are a stronger team than the Buccaneers by a wide margin in the regular season.
It is not often you can take Tom Brady as an underdog and even rarer to see that in the PlayOffs, but the Saints do look to match up well with Tampa Bay on both sides of the ball. It should be key to the outcome and I do think the Saints are the right team to back. And make a note that Brady is 'only' 4-3 against the spread in the seven previous games he has been set as the underdog in the PlayOffs.
I am really looking forward to this game and I think it could be great viewing, but I think the New Orleans Saints will see their veteran Quarter Back make more plays than Tom Brady and it will see the home favourite win and cover.
MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 10 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
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