The Bowl Picks worked out pretty well over the last month, but the College Football PlayOffs were another thing altogether.
One Pick I got completely wrong, while I was undone by a backdoor cover in the other. With the National Championship wrapping up the 2020 season, I am hoping for better.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Two blow out wins in the College Football PlayOff Semi Finals have taken the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes into the National Championship Game. Both teams are unbeaten, although the Crimson Tide knocked off the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as a big favourite a couple of weeks ago.
Things were different for the Buckeyes who were an underdog against the Clemson Tigers, but rammed back taunts of not being considered in the top ten for best teams in the nation when crushing them. The Ohio State Buckeyes never looked like losing, let alone failing to cover, but the layers are not convinced that they will be able to keep up with the Crimson Tide who have looked like one of the stronger editions of what has become a regularly National Championship contender.
There are some factors at play which are hard to really gauge as to how important they could potentially become- the Buckeyes have had a number of Covid-19 outbreaks throughout the 2020 season and are rumoured to be suffering another which had some believing the Championship Game could have to be moved, but they are going to go on Monday as far as it sounds.
Ohio State have shown they can manage those outbreaks and not lose any momentum, but there is also the injury suffered by Quarter Back Justin Fields in the win over Clemson Tigers which may limit him. On the other hand you do have to wonder if the Buckeyes are peaking at the right time with a short season meaning they are heading towards the peak of the performance compared with the Alabama Crimson Tide who have already come through a number of very tough games to remain unbeaten.
The Crimson Tide have won 12 games this season compared with Ohio State's 7 games and so there is more wear and tear on their team, but Nick Saban is not going to be concerning himself about excuses nor giving Ohio State any bulletin board material like Dabo Swinney did before the Clemson Tigers were beaten very easily.
The injury to Justin Fields could be critical because there is a feeling he won't be able to run as much as he might have done if at full health. It did not slow him down against the Tigers, but the Alabama Crimson Tide won't have to make in-game adjustments to Fields as they are likely going to anticipate him being at his best, but also planning for how they will defend against Fields if he is not at 100%.
I still think you have to respect Justin Fields who will be keen to remind people why he was considered one of the top two Quarter Backs coming out into the NFL Draft. Some have suggested he might have slipped behind Zach Wilson in the scouting reports, but Justin Fields can turn all that talk on its head with a strong performance in the National Championship Game even if the Buckeyes were to come up short.
As well as the Crimson Tide have played all season, we have seen the likes of Ole Miss and Florida have success throwing the ball down the field against this Secondary. Justin Fields has the talent around him to have success in this game too and I think there will be chances for the Buckeyes to move the ball, although Alabama will be well Coached and there is no less talent here that can make some big plays for the favourites.
Mobility is going to be the key for Fields as he looks to make sure he can stay away from the much respected Alabama pass rush that should be able to get through this Ohio State Offensive Line. If Justin Fields can at least move better than he looked like he could in the second half against the Clemson Tigers, it will be a big boost for Ohio State who will be looking to dominate the line of scrimmage as the did against the Tigers.
After establishing the run in the manner they did against the Tigers, I have to give the Ohio State Offensive Line enough respect to think they could so the same against Alabama and that despite how strong the Crimson Tide Defensive Line has been up front. It could be all important to the outcome on this side of the ball as any one-dimensional Offense is going to have problems against Alabama, but Ohio State should be able to make this a competitive game.
The line of scrimmage is massively important on both sides of the ball, because the Buckeyes are coming in off a game in which they really forced Clemson to lean on Trevor Lawrence. Now Lawrence may be going into the NFL as the next great generational Quarter Back, but the Buckeyes were able to slow down the Tigers without the balance they would usually have relied upon and I think that is going to be very important for them here.
Alabama have quality talent throughout their skill positions and it is difficult to believe the Crimson Tide will see Najee Harris shut down completely, but I do think he will have to work for his yards. The question is whether I believe Ohio State can shut down the run to the extent they did against Clemson? Realistically I do not think that will happen with the talent Alabama have on their Offensive Line, but the fact I have to ask the question means it could see the Crimson Tide needing Mac Jones to loosen the line of scrimmage.
Mac Jones has played so well in 2020 and I do think some fans will have forgotten about Tua Tagovailoa, but no one is going to dispute the amount of talent he has to throw to. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman Trophy and the Wide Receiver looks like one that is going to have a huge impact at the next level, while Alabama may also be boosted by the return of Jaylen Waddle who has been listed as Questionable.
The Buckeyes Secondary has given up some big numbers throughout the season, but they have also been able to make big plays to turn momentum when they have needed to. One concern has to be the lack of consistent pass rush pressure and that may give Mac Jones the kind of time that will make Alabama very difficult to stop when you think of the kind of players he will be throwing to in this game.
I think Alabama will win this game, but you can't ignore the possibility of a backdoor cover.
Having more than a Touchdown of points with a team as good as Ohio State does look appealing and they are 19-7 against the spread in their last twenty-six games as the underdog. That includes winning outright against the Tigers in the College Football PlayOffs while Ohio State are also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight post-season games.
I was undone by a backdoor cover when the Alabama Crimson Tide crushed the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while the Crimson Tide have not covered in their last four National Championship Games.
However Alabama are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games as the favourite and I do think they are the superior team and won't underestimate Ohio State. I have a feeling that Clemson did that to some extent and motivated the Buckeyes by disrespecting them in the build up to that PlayOff Game, but Nick Saban won't do that and his team look to be stronger than Ohio State.
I expect the Buckeyes issues in the Secondary to be highlighted here and they may not have as much joy across the lines of scrimmage as they did against Clemson. Justin Fields may show why he is considered one of the top players coming out in the next NFL Draft, but Mac Jones has the talent around him to out-perform Fields and lead the Crimson Tide to another National Championship title.
MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
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