Weekend Football Picks 2018 (April 28-30)

The Premier League is coming down to the final three weekends of action and there doesn't look like a lot of storylines which are going to grab the attention. The title race has been run and the top four and bottom three look pretty secure, but things can change very quickly even at this time of the season.

Second guessing managers and working out motivations of teams is always a challenge at this time of the year, but there are plenty of big games this weekend.

Chelsea will be hoping to put some pressure on Tottenham Hotspur for 4th place in the Premier League as they get to play two days earlier and are 'only' 5 points behind them. They have a big game at Swansea City with implications at the top and bottom of the Premier League.

Southampton also host Bournemouth on Saturday to give themselves a chance of closing to those teams outside the relegation spot. The next three games all look winnable for Southampton and this has to be a game they win if they want to survive, something I believe they can do.

It's another busy weekend before we conclude the European Semi Finals during the week as the run to the end of the season picks up pace.


Liverpool v Stoke City Pick: You have to second guess what manager Jurgen Klopp is going to do with his team selection on Saturday as Liverpool host Stoke City in between the two Champions League Semi Final ties with Roma.

The 5-2 home win in the First Leg may make it easier for Klopp to try and maintain the rhythm his side have picked up by picking a strong team. The top four places in the Premier League are far from assured too which means Liverpool should be aiming for the three points to ensure they can fully focus on the Champions League the rest of the way.

Playing at home against Stoke City should be ideal for Liverpool as the visitors have to begin to feel that relegation is inevitable having dropped points rom winning positions against West Ham United and Burnley in back to back weeks.

Paul Lambert has made Stoke City a tougher team to play against, but Liverpool are in really strong form at Anfield. They have won 4 straight games here and have scored at least three times in each of those wins and getting to that number will be very difficult for Stoke City to be competitive.

A lack of goals has cost Stoke City and I am expecting a strong looking Liverpool team being in a comfortable position by around the 70 minute mark which will then see Klopp make some changes. Liverpool have beaten Stoke City 4-1 on the latter's back to back visits to Anfield and I think the home team win by a comfortable margin on Saturday too.


Burnley v Brighton Pick: Both Burnley and Brighton look to be coming into their final Premier League games in a position to achieve more than was expected of them back in August.

Burnley and Brighton may both have been tipped up for relegation back then, but instead Burnley are just about set to play Europa League Football next season and Brighton are almost certain to avoid the drop.

Both Sean Dyche and Chris Hughton preach hard work though and I think both will be asking for the players to produce one final push in their final three weeks of League Football.

Burnley being at home looks to be the right side to back here as they have been in fine form for much of the season at Turf Moor. A lack of goals can be a concern, but Burnley have been better in recent weeks and are facing a Brighton team who have had some difficulties at the back.

One goal could be enough for Brighton to feel they can earn a result here though and that is part of the reason I can imagine the layers have Burnley as a tempting odds against shot to win this fixture.

That concerns me a little, but I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap which at least returns half the stake in the event of a draw. Burnley are playing really well of late and their two up front system is confusing teams which could play a part in creating chances against this Brighton team.

Burnley have won many games like this over the last eighteen months which has seen them become as successful as they have and I think they are more likely than not to win this one.


Crystal Palace v Leicester City Pick: There is probably one more win needed for Crystal Palace to ensure they don't avoid the drop into the Championship and recent form suggests they can find that in their final 3 League games.

Facing an unmotivated Leicester City could present the best chance for Crystal Palace especially if The Foxes have a similar attitude to the one they had in their goalless draw with Southampton ten days ago.

Having had a few days off, I do expect more from Leicester City who have scored goals away from home with their counter attacking style working perfectly well on their travels. They will feel they can get after the Crystal Palace defence which has conceded plenty of goals of late, although The Eagles will be confident in their own ability to score goals at Selhurst Park.

I do think Crystal Palace have dealt with the tense situations well in recent weeks and they have the attacking players to win this one. Keeping Leicester City completely quiet won't be easy though and I imagine there could be goals produced when these teams meet on Saturday.

The last 3 League games between them have featured three or more goals shared out, while the last 3 Crystal Palace home games have also hit that mark. 8 of the last 10 Leicester City away Premier League games have also seen three or more goals and I will back that to be the outcome of this one.


Huddersfield Town v Everton Pick: Nothing is guaranteed for Huddersfield Town with the season ending with games against Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal, but the late winner over Watford last weekend was a huge result when it comes to their chances of survival.

They may still need some points though to ensure they are not dropping into the bottom three on the final day of the season.

A 6 point lead over Southampton in 18th looks a very strong one, but Southampton don't have that bad a fixture list remaining with a distinct possibility of earning at least 7 points from their next three games. Swansea City could have a similar success from 17th place and that would put Huddersfield Town in a desperate position.

However I think a point could be good enough for The Terriers and they are capable of earning that against Everton this weekend.

Sam Allardyce's future as manager remains unconvincing in the long-term and Everton have not nearly been as effective away from home as they have at Goodison Park. The players looked short of motivation for much of their 1-0 win over Newcastle United last Monday and Huddersfield Town should be capable of avoiding defeat if they put in the hard work and raise their energy levels for their penultimate home game.

There is a chance Huddersfield Town surprise Everton too, but I think the focus will be to earn another point and see where they stand going into their final three Premier League games. David Wagner's team have been organised enough to get that especially with a few difficulties scoring goals and a low-scoring draw looks the likely outcome.


Southampton v Bournemouth Pick: Could Mark Hughes really be the man who effectively takes over at two clubs and has both relegated in the same season? It would be harsh to pin Southampton's blames on the Welshman's shoulders, but Stoke City's plight is down to Hughes and both of those clubs are now favourites to be playing Championship Football next season.

Southampton have a better chance than Stoke City of avoiding the drop and that is mainly down to the remaining fixtures. The game at Swansea City looks like it could be a huge one for Southampton in ten days time, but the focus is on this weekend and a winnable League fixture against south coast rivals Bournemouth.

There has to be better defending from Southampton to be in a position to do that, but they have created chances in recent games with Hughes looking for the players to take more risks in their play. A fit Charlie Austin could be huge for Southampton, but mentally they are a little fragile as shown in their 2-3 defeat to Chelsea when they looked to be the dominant team at 2-0 up.

With their opponents having nothing to lose, it could be difficult for Southampton especially as Bournemouth will look to get forward and score goals.

However Bournemouth have not been in the best recent form and I really do think this is a big chance for Southampton to earn a priceless three points. They have still looked iffy defensively, but the returning Jack Stephens could help, while Southampton have found a little more creativity in the final third to help their cause.

Risking two up front has helped Southampton and I think they are in a position to earn the win although Bournemouth could play their part. The Saints are very, very short for a team who have not won a home Premier League game since back in November but backing them to win a game which features at least two goals could be the way to go.

That is offered at odds against and it feels like Southampton will need to score twice to win this fixture. They are facing a Bournemouth team who concede goals away from home and I will look for Mark Hughes to ease some of the personal criticism he is getting by giving Southampton a chance to avoid the drop.


Swansea City v Chelsea Pick: The second live game from the Premier League on Saturday afternoon comes from the Liberty Stadium as both Swansea City and Chelsea search for key points to achieve their goals at the top and bottom of the table.

Swansea City are trying desperately to keep their heads above water while Chelsea are trying to put some pressure on the top four chasing teams.

With that in mind I can see both teams both playing with the desire to win the game and it could be a decent football match on Saturday.

Games between Swansea City and Chelsea in Wales have tended to be good scraps and it is hard to fancy Chelsea at short odds here. They have won back to back games at Southampton and Burnley, but were fortunate in one of those at St Mary's and Chelsea have looked far from watertight.

Chelsea have the attacking players to give Swansea City problems to deal with, but the home team have been good enough at home to think they can earn a result here.

Under Carlos Carvalhal Swansea City have won 7 of 10 home games in all competitions and beaten the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool in the Premier League. That will give the team confidence, although it is how they handle the pressure if Southampton or Stoke City have won earlier in the day to close the 4 point gap to The Swans to just a single point.

Even with that in mind, I think Swansea City have been tough to beat here and Chelsea's away form has been erratic to say the least. Swansea City have shown they can create chances when they get forward at the Liberty Stadium and Chelsea's defence have had 1 away clean sheet in their 7 away Premier League games this calendar year.

The Blues have also scored in 6 of those 7 away games and I am surprised the odds against quotes are available for both teams to score here. Swansea City have scored in their last 5 home Premier League games and I am going to look for both teams to get on the scoreboard in this late afternoon live fixture.


West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: There is still a little bit of work for West Ham United to do to make sure they are not being dragged back into a relegation scrap and the pressure may be ramped up if the likes of Stoke City, Southampton and Swansea City earn positive results on Saturday.

In all honesty it would be a surprise if West Ham United are pulled back down towards the bottom three with the current 6 point gap to those places, but they can't afford for complacency to take over.

Complacency is likely to be punished significantly by Manchester City if West Ham United are not at the races and the fans may be a touch concerned. For starters Manchester City can play with the freedom that comes after securing the Premier League title and they also won 0-4 and 0-5 at the London Stadium last season when not considered as strong as they have been this time around.

Manchester City have also looked to have recovered from their 3 consecutive losses earlier this month and they have been very good away from home all season. The side have won 4 away Premier League games in a row and all of those have come by two or more goal margins with Manchester City showing plenty of attacking intent.

That is going to be tough for West Ham United to deal with, but Joe Hart will want to make a point to his former club with a big display in goal if he is given the chance to start. That may not be enough for West Ham United though and their best chance may be to try and get after a Manchester City backline that have shown some vulnerabilities in recent weeks.

West Ham United have been tough to play at the London Stadium and have had some solid results here under David Moyes which has to be respected. However they have also found it tough when the best teams have been in their best form and I think they are facing Manchester City at the wrong time.

I will look for Manchester City to continue their strong away run in the Premier League with a 5th straight away win by two or more goals.


Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: This is the last time Arsene Wenger will take an Arsenal team to Old Trafford but the line up may not be that familiar with the expected first team players likely to be rested for a huge task in the Second Leg of their Europa League Semi Final against Atletico Madrid.

With the First Leg played on Thursday there is no doubt that Wenger will appreciate that the mental and physical effort put in by his team will mean players are a little fatigued. The body blow of conceding a late equaliser against a team who played with ten men for over 80 minutes will really have hurt Wenger especially as it means they are firm underdogs to go through to the Europa League Final.

The fixture at Old Trafford against Manchester United will conjure up some famous memories for Arsene Wenger who guided Arsenal to wins here in 1998 and 2002 which helped his team go on and win the Premier League title. Sentiment means this remains an important game, but the reality is that Arsenal don't achieve a lot by investing a lot of energy into winning this game and being punished for the effort in Madrid next Thursday.

That is not to say the players coming in won't want to win, but it does mean I expect wholesale changes to the Arsenal team who have been vulnerable away from home all season.

Manchester United are back at home for the first time since the West Brom debacle and Jose Mourinho will expect his players to want to right that wrong. They have already beaten Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea at Old Trafford this season and the win in the FA Cup Semi Final last week should mean players are ready to show the manager they should be picked for the Final in mid-May.

It might not always have been the free-flowing football the Manchester United fans would like to see, but Mourinho's team have been effective and have performed well in the big games for the most part. Against a weakened team whose focus may be elsewhere I would expect Manchester United to be too strong on the day.

The layers all have that in mind with the prices reflecting that, but I think Arsenal's away form doesn't offer a lot of encouragement for them. West Brom did win at Old Trafford a couple of weeks ago, but Manchester United have recovered from that setback and I think they can ease by Arsenal in this Premier League fixture.


Tottenham Hotspur v Watford Pick: It was a real surprise to hear Tottenham Hotspur fans as down about their team as they were in the wake of their 2-1 defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup Semi Final. A club that has really enjoyed the elite in England are desperate for some trophy success to underline their progress even if Mauricio Pochettino is less concerned unless it is winning a Champions League or Premier League title.

Pochettino's language following the defeat to Manchester United was a little concerning with the suggestion it is hard to reach his ambitions with the restrictions Tottenham Hotspur have financially.

That should worry the Tottenham Hotspur fans more as their side look to bounce back from 3 consecutive losses at Wembley Stadium.

Playing Watford looks a good chance to get back to winning ways with the visitors looking like they are back in their usual late season swoon to the finish line. Since hitting 36 points, Watford have lost 4 of 6 Premier League games and their away form has been nothing to write home about.

Losing 10 of 11 away games in all competitions and only scoring twice in that entire run will mean Tottenham Hotspur are big favourites to win this fixture. The recent Tottenham Hotspur form has not been the best though which makes it harder to believe in them covering a big Asian Handicap which is focused on Watford's seemingly loss of focus in the last few weeks of the season.

However the lack of Watford goals can't be ignored and I think Tottenham Hotspur will find a way to win this fixture. Backing them to win the game with a clean sheet looks an appealing price despite the recent setbacks at Wembley Stadium and I think Tottenham Hotspur can do that.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Everton Draw @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Southampton Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Swansea City-Chelsea Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)