Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (April 18th)

The Monte Carlo Masters moves into the Second Round on Wednesday and that means the majority of the big names in action this week will get their tournament underway.

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will garner the most attention, but there are some quality matches to come on Wednesday as the Monte Carlo Masters moves forward.

Tuesday was a mixed bag with the Tennis Picks going 1-1, but much of that was down to the fact that Kyle Edmund did not take the chances that came his way. The scoreboard may say different, but the numbers don't lie and Edmund will be kicking himself for losing to Andreas Seppi in the First Round.

At least Richard Gasquet came through a couple of difficult moments to win his First Round match, but I am hoping for a stronger day on Wednesday.


Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: It still feels like Kei Nishikori is on a road back to the very top of the ATP Tour with his injury issues only recently behind him. The impressive performance against Tomas Berdych in the First Round will give Nishikori some confidence, but it won't be a big surprise to note the inconsistent performances he has produced since returning to the main Tour.

His draws have not always been the best and Nishikori is likely to be challenged by Daniil Medvedev who is part of the 'Next Gen' of talent on the ATP Tour.

Medvedev has shown he is capable of playing with the very best players on the Tour and has stunned Stan Wawrinka in a Grand Slam in his young career. However Medvedev has not shown a lot of form on the clay courts and that is the reason I am going to back Nishikori in this Second Round match.

While his opponent has not shown a lot of form on this surface, Nishikori has been one of the better clay courters out there and has some very strong numbers on the red dirt. There is the concern that Nishikori is only just back from a serious injury which curtailed his 2017 season, but I think the clay courts suit his style of play.

Some may also be concerned by the service numbers, but Nishikori may get some help from Medvedev who needs to show more patience on the clay. He goes for his shots, but on the slower clay courts you have to build points a little better and I think that is where Nishikori can frustrate his younger opponent.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: There are very few players that can frustrate as much as Fabio Fognini who shows flashes of tremendous talent, but also feels like he is never far away from a meltdown on the court.

The Italian is at his best on the clay courts though and he has some solid looking numbers when he is facing those players Ranked outside the top 50. Fognini play one of those on Wednesday in Jan-Lennard Struff, but anything less than his best will give Struff the chance to earn the upset.

Struff is very comfortable on the clay courts himself, but he has yet to really take his Challenger form onto the main ATP Tour. His win in the First Round was expected, but Struff still impressed and has to be respected with his serve being a potent weapon and one that he can protect even on the slower surfaces.

That serve will be challenged by Fognini who has produced some very good returning numbers on the clay courts and those have remained steady when facing players outside the top 50 of the World Rankings on this surface. This year he is 7-0 in clay matches against those opponents and his 80% hold and 39% break numbers are very strong.

Fognini was not quite as strong as that last season, especially when it comes to the hold of serve which is obviously the concerning side of his game when asking him to cover any spreads. He may be aided just enough by Struff who has struggled with his break numbers against top 100 Ranked players on the clay and I will look for Fognini to get the better of him with a couple more breaks over the course of the match.


Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: There are plenty of signs to show Fernando Verdasco has declined as a player on the main Tour, but he still is able to produce some big weeks when he does put his tennis all together. Verdasco battled past Pablo Cuevas in the First Round and now has to face Marin Cilic, but he has tended to play the Number 2 Seed very tough.

The veteran is going to want to show what he still has left in the tank and playing on the clay courts suit Verdasco just fine.

However there is no doubting the kind of test in front of him and I am pretty high on Marin Cilic as a player. He has a strong serve and heavy artillery off the ground which will always make him a tough opponent, but Cilic is also an underrated returner and can shift the pressure of a rally onto his opponents almost immediately.

Since the beginning of 2017 Cilic has broken serve at a huge rate and he should be very comfortable on the clay in Monte Carlo. It should also be noted that those numbers come down markedly when Cilic is playing top 50 Ranked players on the clay and that is where I think Verdasco can at least keep this match competitive.

Cilic's serve remains a potent weapon, but he perhaps would like to be a little more clinical when the break point chances come his way in those matches against top 50 Ranked opponents. The Verdasco serve is a big weapon for him on the clay too and I think that will help him at least keep this close with every chance the Spaniard is able to win at least one set in this Second Round match.

I do worry about Verdasco's ability to crumble in matches which could see him fail to cover even in a three setter, but he would have done that in three of the last four matches against Cilic. He has also won their sole clay court match in 2015 and I will take the games with Verdasco in this Second Round encounter.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 1-2, - 2.56 Units (6 Units Staked, - 42.67% Yield)