Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2018 (April 6th)

The Davis Cup Quarter Final ties will make headlines of their own, but most fans will be keeping a close eye on Rafael Nadal who makes his return since pulling out of the Australian Open Quarter Final match against Marin Cilic.

Nadal is playing the second rubber of the Spanish tie against Germany in Valencia, but his team have made it clear that the current World Number 1 is not at full health as he looks to defend plenty of points over the next couple of months in the lead up and during the French Open.


The four Davis Cup ties have provided some options for the Tennis Picks which have made a good start to the week from the WTA Charleston event. Any Picks from the United States vs Belgium tie and from the two WTA events will be added to this thread on Friday, but the Picks below are from the Spain vs Germany and Italy vs France Quarter Final ties which begin early on Friday morning.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The big question for Alexander Zverev is how he has managed to handle himself emotionally having lost the Miami Masters Final to John Isner a few days ago. He hasn't got a lot of time to prepare for the move from the hard courts onto the clay courts, while Zverev will be playing against another crowd supporting his opponent as he looks to give Germany a strong start in the Davis Cup tie against Spain.

A few years ago the prospect of facing David Ferrer would have been a scary one for any player, especially on the clay courts where the movement and defensive skills Ferrer possesses made him a tough opponent to beat.

However Zverev has already beaten Ferrer twice on the hard courts in 2018 to give himself a mental boost for this match, while I also have to say that the Spanish veteran is simply not as strong as he once was.

Ferrer's numbers against top 50 opponents on the clay courts over the last couple of years have deteriorated badly from his peak and I think that is an issue when facing Zverev. You can't ignore how well Zverev is able to play on the clay courts as he showed when winning the Rome Masters last year and his stronger service numbers and solid return numbers give him the edge in this first rubber.

I do think Ferrer will have his moments and he could even take a set, but I would expect Zverev to settle into the match and begin to take control of proceedings. He can produce some big time tennis on this surface and I would expect the stronger serving and very effective returning can help him get past Ferrer and cover the number of games being asked of him.

Coming off the hard courts onto the clay courts shouldn't be a big problem for Zverev, and he has had a few days to get himself physically ready for this match. I am looking for him to just be a little too good for Ferrer and give Germany the perfect start to this Quarter Final tie.


Lucas Pouille - 5.5 games v Andreas Seppi: On first glance I have to say this does look a big number of games for Lucas Pouille to cover, but the clay courts have been a surface on which he has been able to produce better returning numbers than on other surfaces.

He had a decent time on the clay in 2017 and Pouille certainly has some decent numbers on the surface which makes him someone to respect. The serve has continued to be a strong weapon for the Frenchman, but he has found his feet when it comes to the return on this surface and I think that is key against Andreas Seppi who has seen his own numbers declining on the clay over the last couple of years.

One of the bigger issues for Seppi is when he has come up against players Ranked in the top 50 when he really has seen a sharp downward trend on both his serving and returning numbers.

The home crowd can at least get behind Seppi and give him a boost in this one, but I do think the majority of the play will be on Pouille's side of the court and he will be the player creating the majority of break point chances.

Pouille can be a hard player to back because he does tend to struggle to retrieve breaks and that can lead to silly dropped sets, but I think he is the better player in this one. It will take Seppi turning back the clock to earn the upset and I will back Pouille to create the break points to win and cover the handicap.


Fabio Fognini - 6.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: I might need my head testing in picking two players who can be very, very erratic when the mood strikes them, but I am going to back Fabio Fognini to cover a big number against Jeremy Chardy in the second rubber of the tie between Italy and France.

With the home support behind him, Fognini will certainly feel he has the edge on the clay courts over Chardy even if the latter has been able to snap his run of losses to Fognini by beating him on the hard courts in North America over the last month.

Chardy has a very good serve when he is feeling at his best and it is a weapon that can give Fognini some problems even on the clay courts. The Frenchman has been able to maintain strong hold numbers on the clay courts but his bigger issue is trying to out-rally players on this surface for long enough to earn the break point chances.

The serve will be tested by Fognini who has a decent return and has produced some of his best tennis in Davis Cup. Not many would have forgotten the way he dismantled Andy Murray in Italy on the clay courts before and I do think this is the kind of situation in which Fognini does seem to bring his very best to the court.

Over the course of a best of five set match I do think Fognini will be able to break down the Chardy game and I think that will give him every chance of covering this number. Fognini has maintained some strong numbers on the clay courts over the last few years and I think he can continue the fine form he has shown on this surface already in 2018.

I think Chardy's returning issues could be a real factor in helping Fognini in covering the number in this second rubber and I will back the Italian to do that.


Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Bernarda Pera: The WTA Charleston event has reached the Quarter Final stage which means all of the players in this tournament have shown decent enough form.

It may be a surprising run for Madison Keys who has not produced her best tennis on the clay courts in the last couple of years, although she has played a Charleston Final before in her career.

Keys is very much a confidence player who has to see the serve working to the usual standards to make sure the rest of her game is up to scratch. That has been the case so far this week and I do think she will be able to put Bernarda Pera under pressure as a player who is still getting accustomed to this level of tennis.

Pera has shown she has plenty of quality in her own tennis and playing left-handed can be a problem for opponents to solve. She has some decent wins this week too which will have given her confidence, but I have to believe Keys is familiar with what Pera wants to do on the court and I expect the bigger hitting from the higher Ranked American to prove to be a difference maker on the day.

As long as Keys maintains her focus behind serve, I expect her to come through this match and cover these games by earning a break more in each set of a straight sets win.


Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Alize Cornet: Alize Cornet won her grudge match against Caroline Garcia on Thursday, but she is going to have maintain some heady standards if she is going to beat Kiki Bertens.

So far this week Cornet has been in fantastic form which has to be respected, but the numbers are far superior to the usual kind of levels the Frenchwoman finds on the clay courts.

Confidence is high so nothing suggests she will be dropping backwards, but Kiki Bertens presents a very difficult challenge for any opponent on the clay courts.

Bertens might not be playing at the same level that Cornet has produced this week, but her numbers are much more in line with those she has produced on the clay courts in the last two seasons. It does suggest Bertens can maintain these levels for longer than Cornet and I do think her serve is a big weapon for her in this match.

That serve can set up a few cheaper points for Bertens and I think she will be able to put Cornet under pressure in the match when it comes to protecting her own serve. The head to head may lean towards Cornet, but I think Bertens is one of the better clay court players out there and I am expecting her to have some strong runs over the next couple of months on this surface.

The superiority on the clay courts should show up in this match and I will back Bertens to come through and cover the number in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.12 Units (6 Units Staked, + 85.33% Yield)