Midweek Football Picks 2018 (April 10-12)

Has anyone in red come down from the high of the Manchester derby on Saturday?

It was one thing preventing Manchester City winning the Premier League title at the expense of Manchester United, but the fightback from 2-0 down at half time in a 2-3 win will set Manchester United up for a fine end to the season.

The attacking football on display in the second half was night and day from what was seen in the first half and Manchester City have to be rocking mentally ahead of their Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg against Liverpool. Being 3-0 down from the First Leg won't help, and it does feel like Manchester City's season will peter out if they are unable to turn around this Champions League tie on Tuesday.

I remember how that used to feel as a Manchester United fan.

In the two seasons after winning the treble in 1999 Manchester United dominated the Premier League and won the title at a canter, but the losses to Real Madrid in 2000 and Bayern Munich in 2001 in the Champions League Quarter Finals were frustrating for both the fans and the players and ended the season abruptly from an emotional point of view.

That is going to be the case for Manchester City fans and players if they are beaten by Liverpool in the Champions League Quarter Final and some may also suggest an underachieving season despite winning two trophies.


The draw for the Semi Final in the Champions League and the Europa League will take place on Friday this week, but first we have to complete the Quarter Final ties. The four Champions League ties look very one-sided after the First Leg results, while the Europa League ties look like producing three clear winners already too.

That might mean less drama this week, but football has a funny way of surprising us when we think we have all of the answers and it could still be a memorable week in both competitions.


Manchester City v Liverpool Pick: Last week was a stunning performance from Liverpool in the first half which has given them a huge advantage in this Champions League Quarter Final. The absence of an away goal for Manchester City means they are a significant underdog to get through this tie, although the layers are confident they can salvage some pride by winning the Second Leg.

You can't deny that Liverpool have matched up well with Manchester City with the speed on the counter attack exposing the spaces that Pep Guardiola's team do leave behind.

They may also be playing them at a time of the season when Manchester City have been most vulnerable having conceded three times in back to back losses to Liverpool and Manchester United. The defeat to Manchester United would have really concerned Guardiola as his team were 2-0 up and in complete control of the match at half time but capitulated after United got back into it in the second half.

It is hard to imagine a situation where Liverpool are not able to add to the three goals they scored in the First Leg and that would make it very, very difficult for Manchester City to turn the tables in this one.

However they did show against Manchester United that Manchester City can create plenty of chances at home. Better finishing on that day would have seen Manchester City win that fixture by half time, but the concern is how poorly they have defended in the last couple of games.

Manchester City do have the quality to score the three goals they need, but Liverpool will be a massive threat on the counter attack. Ultimately I can't see Liverpool not scoring here and I think this is a fixture that will produce goals.

Last week I picked four or more goals to be shared out and had 60 minutes for one more goal to be scored. However I will go back to the same market and look for Manchester City to be a little better this week in front of their own fans, even if I think they will come up short.

Manchester City will play one way and that should leave Liverpool with chances on the counter attack and I will back at least four goals to be shared out.


Roma v Barcelona Pick: The First Leg has effectively taken this tie away from Roma but they will want to show some pride when the Second Leg takes place in front of their own fans in the Italian capital.

One problem with being down by such a large margin is keeping the fans involved in the tie when it looks like the gap is too big to bridge.

However it should also means the Roma players can perform with some freedom with nothing to lose against their more illustrious visitors.

Barcelona might just have put their remaining focus on the Champions League this season with the Spanish title almost in the bag and a place in the Copa Del Rey Final secured. However this Barcelona team does not look as strong as the one that won the Champions League in 2015 and they have struggled for performances and results away from the Nou Camp.

On the other hand Roma have played well at home in the Champions League and have won their last 3 ties here.

My fear for Roma is the fact that they are chasing this Second Leg which could see them picked off by a Barcelona team that still contains Lionel Messi. That could easily be the outcome of this one, but Roma have shown they are tough to beat at home and Barcelona have struggled for wins away from home in the Champions League over the last thirteen months.

Roma's recent form in Italy has been disappointing too, but they may just be able to challenge Barcelona in this Second Leg and give them something to think about. Backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap should give us a run with Barcelona not as strong as they once were, although I am looking for Roma to show plenty of pride here and not chase the big deficit they are in.


Bayern Munich v Sevilla Pick: The First Leg was the best chance for Sevilla to have a real chance of making it through to an unexpected Semi Final place in the Champions League, but defeat means they have a mountain to climb in the Second Leg.

The performance by Sevilla was a good one but ultimately the quality Bayern Munich had was too much for them and I think it is going to be much more difficult for Sevilla to try and impose themselves here.

Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun at home and at some point Sevilla have to try and come out and score the two goals they need.

You also can't ignore the fact that Sevilla have not been as strong away from home as they have at home and this is one of the toughest European venues for any team to visit. Bayern Munich have a really intimidating home record and the goals being scored should see them ease through to the Semi Final of the Champions League yet again.

They are being asked to cover a big handicap in the Second Leg, but Bayern Munich are capable of putting Sevilla to the sword in front of their own fans. Even in the Champions League Bayern Munich have scored plenty of goals in home wins and I think they are capable of winning this one by a comfortable margin to make a statement to the remaining teams in this competition.

Sevilla impressed at Manchester United, but this is a much different test for them and they have taken some heavy losses away from home. If Vincenzo Montella decides to send his team out with 'damage limitation' in mind it could be more difficult for Bayern Munich, but I would still expect the German Champions to be too strong on the day and win well.


Real Madrid v Juventus Pick: When you have a lead like the one Real Madrid have from the First Leg it is easy for players to lose some of their intensity in the Second Leg of a Knock Out tie.

That has to be the biggest concern for Zinedine Zidane in this Champions League tie although Juventus have to be feeling a little sorry for themselves too.

Much is going to depend on the Juventus attitude and you have to believe the veterans in the squad will be urging their team mates to play with plenty of pride.

However Juventus have found Spanish opposition very difficult in the last few years and have lost by three goal margins to Real Madrid (twice) and Barcelona in the last twelve months. They may also be more focused on the Italian title race now they have a huge mountain to climb in this Second Leg and Real Madrid may be looking to make another statement to potential Semi Final opponents.

Cristiano Ronaldo is in magnificent form in 2018 and he will likely lead the line again, while Real Madrid don't have to rest too many players as none are on the edge of a suspension. That should mean Real Madrid are able to dominate the Second Leg with their strong home record in the Champions League and I think Juventus could capitulate for a second time here.

Juventus were fortunate at Wembley Stadium when being outplayed by Tottenham Hotspur before stunning their hosts, but I don't think this experienced Real Madrid team are caught out.

It is tough to back a team on the handicap when you think of the lead they have, but I do think Real Madrid can win this one by a comfortable margin too and move through to the Champions League Semi Final in impressive form.


CSKA Moscow v Arsenal Pick: The First Leg has almost certainly put this Quarter Final tie out of the reach of CSKA Moscow, but they will still want to finish with some pride in the Second Leg in front of their own fans.

That won't be easy against an Arsenal team who will play a strong team in the Europa League as they look to work their way back into the Champions League and one who have the quality in forward areas to expose a slow CSKA Moscow defence.

The Gunners showed that in the First Leg as they hammered CSKA Moscow in the first half and I think they can get the better of them again.

Arsenal have won both away ties in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds so far and CSKA Moscow have been a little erratic at home in European competition. CSKA Moscow are also distracted by the battle for the top three in their domestic League and won't have been helped by the schedule makers which meant they played their last League game on Monday evening.

It may be the case that this game actually means more to Arsenal than CSKA Moscow and I think that could help the Premier League club earn another victory.

With the lead from the First Leg there is some doubts about how much Arsenal will push for the victory, but I do think they will have chances to expose CSKA Moscow on the counter attack throughout this one. The likes of Manchester United, Basel and Lyon have all won here in Europe this season and CSKA Moscow were also beaten at home on Monday night in the League and I think Arsenal can become the latest to do that.

At odds against Arsenal can be backed for a win in the Second Leg to progress to the Semi Final in comfortable fashion.


Marseille v Leipzig Pick: Both Marseille and Leipzig will understand the importance of moving through to the Europa League Semi Final as they chase a place in the Champions League for next season.

Both teams have a real battle on their hands to do that domestically so keeping their chances alive to win the Europa League is important to both teams in a tie which is in the balance.

Last week Leipzig beat Marseille 1-0 at home and that could be a huge advantage in the Second Leg which is likely to be another competitive match. An away goal would be very difficult for Marseille to overcome, but they can fall back on the fact they have won 6 of their 7 home Europa League games this season.

On the other hand Leipzig have won 2 of their last 3 away European ties including a win in Monaco which will be something they look to replicate. That should give them confidence, but Leipzig did have to play their League game on Monday night and didn't rest their key players for this Second Leg.

The schedule could play a part in this one and I do think this is going to be a really competitive fixture with very little between them.

However home advantage could prove to be the difference and I would not be all that surprised if this tie needs extra time to determine a winner. Marseille's recent form has not been the best, but they have performed well in the Europa League and I will back them to win this one.

I will take Marseille on the Asian Handicap because an away goal for Leipzig could really leave Marseille open on the counter attack. The Asian Handicap will return half the stake in the event of a draw too but I do favour Marseille enough to back them with some confidence.


Salzburg v Lazio Pick: The First Leg was a brilliant game of football with the pendulum swinging one way and then the other before Lazio were able to just earn the edge over Salzburg.

A 4-2 win means Lazio have a decent lead to take to Austria for the Second Leg, but they will remember how dangerous Salzburg were in Italy and will have to expect the same here.

For Salzburg they will still believe they can turn this tie around with the goals they have been able to produce at home, although the challenge will be finding the balance to prevent Lazio from extending their lead.

Lazio have scored at least twice in 4 straight away games in all competitions which makes them a dangerous team to take too many chances against and I can imagine this Second Leg has a similar feel to the First Leg. Both teams are likely going to give it a go and that will likely leave spaces for the other to try and exploit and both teams should play their part in this one.

The onus isn't on Lazio to get forward, but they have shown the quality to be dangerous on the break and Salzburg have to go looking for goals at some point. These teams could combine for another high scoring game as Lazio try to match Roma by reaching a European Semi Final and I will back at least four goals to be shared out on Thursday in what could be another cracking tie.


Sporting Lisbon v Atletico Madrid Pick: Scoring after one minute was the perfect start to this Europa League Quarter Final for Atletico Madrid and they dominated Sporting Lisbon for the majority of the First Leg to move into a commanding position in the tie.

The defeat Barcelona suffered from a really strong position may just have focused the players a little more to make sure they earn their spot in the Europa League Semi Final and I fully expect Atletico Madrid to do that.

The onus is on Sporting Lisbon to get forward and try and get back into this tie, but they looked some way short of the quality that Atletico Madrid bring to the table. It was almost like Atletico Madrid were content with their 2-0 lead and they could move up another gear if they needed to and I think that will likely be the way the Second Leg goes too.

This time Sporting Lisbon have to take a few more chances which should leave more gaps for Atletico Madrid to exploit and I think the Spanish side can record a third straight away win in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds.

Sporting Lisbon have to be respected for the way they have played at home in Europe this season with some tough performances against the likes of Barcelona and Juventus. However this is Knock Out Football and Sporting Lisbon have to take a few more chances in this one and I think Atletico Madrid win here to move through to the Semi Final with relative comfort.

MY PICKS: Manchester City-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Roma + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marseille - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg-Lazio Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)