Weekend Football Picks 2018 (April 21-23)

The biggest news in English Football was the decision made by Arsene Wenger to step down as manager of Arsenal after twenty-two years in charge of the club.

While Wenger has rightly been lauded in many quarters since the decision was revealed, I also think it is impossible to ignore the fact that Arsenal have slid massively in the last few years of his tenure at the Emirates Stadium.

Stubbornness has not helped Wenger who has refused to make the signings that everyone has been crying out for which would have made Arsenal more competitive. And it does feel this decision is a few years later than most Arsenal fans would have wanted, although at least Wenger is going to be given a positive send off which is the least he deserves.

Winning the Europa League would be the perfect way to underline his time at Arsenal, but that is for another day with another round of Premier League games to be played this weekend. We also have two FA Cup Semi Final ties to be played on Saturday and Sunday.


West Brom v Liverpool Pick: This is a chance for Liverpool to put the Premier League to the back of their minds and concentrate fully on an assault to win the Champions League if they are able to win on Saturday.

A win would likely be enough to secure a top four spot in the Premier League which is the main goal for Liverpool this season and they are certainly good enough to earn that at The Hawthorns.

You have to consider the fact that Liverpool could make changes to the starting eleven for this fixture as they are facing Roma in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg on Tuesday. If they rest some of the big names for that First Leg then winning at The Hawthorns will be that much more difficult, but I am going to second guess Jurgen Klopp and expect a strong team to be named to secure a top four berth and then rest players the rest of the way.

They will need to be at their best to beat West Brom after the relegation threatened club secured a stunning 0-1 win at Old Trafford last Sunday. That should focus the Liverpool minds, but I also think West Brom were given a lot of belief by a poor Manchester United performance.

In recent weeks West Brom have not had a lot of belief in what they are trying to do and that saw them lose 9 games in a row before sacking Alan Pardew. The players are playing for Darren Moore, but they were poor two weeks ago in a 1-1 draw with Swansea City and this Liverpool team are capable of putting them to the sword and then being able to rest their key men in the second half.

I expect that will be the request from Klopp and Liverpool are capable of winning with some comfort on the day. West Brom can score goals at home, but Liverpool have defended much better in recent weeks and I will back the away side to give themselves a boost for the Champions League with a good looking win on Saturday lunch time.


Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: The end of the last couple of Premier League seasons have seen Watford struggle to maintain their concentration once their relegation battle has been concluded with a success. The same has happened this season as they have been beaten in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games and that won't be good news for those teams still fighting against relegation.

The reason for that is Watford host Crystal Palace this weekend and the away side come in with plenty of motivation and also positive form as they bid for another victory. The three points on offer could be enough for Crystal Palace to ensure they avoid relegation and they are playing well enough to do that.

Wilfried Zaha is in fine form and Crystal Palace have their attacking players back to give them a boost in confidence. They need the goals because Crystal Palace have continued to struggle defensively and Watford have been stronger at home which suggests they could take advantage of those problems at the back.

Watford have scored in their last 13 home games in all competitions and I think they are still showing enough to think they can create chances. However Watford have not looked that convincing defensively which is where Crystal Palace should have their joy and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see at least three goals in this one.

Both teams could easily score and the three points on offer should mean Crystal Palace are pushing to score the goals to earn those points. With Watford at home they will be pressed by the fans to attack too and I can see there being enough chances in this fixture to see goals arrive.


Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: It has been a long time coming, but Arsene Wenger has finally decided to step down as manager of Arsenal with the team on course for their lowest finish under his tenure. While most Arsenal fans will be happy, the players have a chance to show their appreciation for the manager with a strong end to the season and a possible return to the Champions League.

The team selection did not help Arsenal's cause in their defeat at Newcastle United last weekend, but it was also a real indicator of how they have played away from home. Once again they lost a game in which they had led and that has been a source of frustration for Arsene Wenger all season.

Playing at the Emirates Stadium has been much more positive for the Arsenal players and it has been suggested a strong team will be picked even with the Atletico Madrid Europa League tie in mind.

Wenger wants momentum and he wants his key players to be mentally ready for the Europa League Semi Final so he will also expect a big performance from those players. It can be difficult for players to avoid the distraction of bigger games to come, but the loss last weekend should be enough to keep them focused.

They will need to do that against a West Ham United team who are unbeaten in 3 Premier League games and still searching for one more win to ensure they avoid the drop. David Moyes will look to set his team up to frustrate their hosts, but West Ham United have not been as good at doing that away from home although they have found a way to score goals.

Unfortunately they do concede plenty of chances and a strong Arsenal team can go into the Europa League Semi Final First Leg with some positives behind them. I will look for the home team to have a little too much creativity in the final third and break down this West Ham United team for a win by a couple of goals on the day.


Stoke City v Burnley Pick: The performances from Stoke City under Paul Lambert have not been bad, but a lack of goals and losing winning positions have put them on the brink of being relegated from the Premier League. Anything less than a win on Sunday may be costly for Stoke City who probably need 3 wins from their final 4 League games to have any chance of escaping the drop.

This may be a fixture that represents a good chance to earn the first of those wins after Burnley had a tough evening on Thursday competing against Chelsea. There won't be many changes to the Burnley starting eleven which means tiredness could work against them as this game goes on, but Burnley have proven themselves to be defensively resolute.

The home team have simply not scored enough goals to be warranted as a pretty short favourite to win this game, especially when you think of the lack of wins under Paul Lambert.

Stoke City do get on the front foot and have some talented players that could cause problems for Burnley, but I imagine Sean Dyche will have his players well drilled for this fixture even on the short turnaround from Thursday's game.

Burnley may not have the best recent record at Stoke City, but they have played with a lot more belief than their hosts all season. As long as Burnley remain as tough as they have been defensively, I think they will have an opportunity to at least earn a point here and backing the visitors with a start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go.


Manchester City v Swansea City Pick: A party atmosphere in the stands can sometimes filter down to the players, but I would be surprised if Pep Guardiola allows his Manchester City team to ease off the throttle in their final League games. Instead I imagine this is a time when he will want this team to lay down a marker for next season and underline their desire for future success too.

The game on Sunday does look a good opportunity for Manchester City to express themselves as they go up against a Swansea City team who have not been as secure defensively as they once looked under Carlos Carvalhal. The Swans have kept the points ticking over to keep their head above water in the Premier League, but they were clearly second best in a 2-0 loss at Manchester United at the end of March and it is a big test for them here.

They don't have anything to lose so Swansea City can try and express themselves, but that might leave them a little open to a Manchester City team who have been in imperious form at home for much of the season.

And it could be dangerous to be too open against a team who are trying to snap a 3 game losing run at the Etihad Stadium, although I am not convinced Swansea City will get much here regardless of the system employed.

If you defend in numbers you can limit the damage done by the home team, but Manchester City are well rested and ready to celebrate and I can see this being a comfortable win for the home team. They have struggled to win their recent home games against Swansea City, but this Manchester City team look much stronger than recent editions and I think it could be a long afternoon for their visitors.

Manchester City won 0-4 at the Liberty Stadium, but they could settle for a margin of one less than that. Regardless, I am going to back Manchester City to cover a big Asian Handicap as they celebrate the title with a stylish win.


Everton v Newcastle United Pick: For most fans the difference between finishing 9th and 10th in the Premier League table may not be here nor there, but for clubs there is a financial reward for a higher League finish. That may be the only thing on the mind of those in the board room when Everton host Newcastle United on Monday Night Football, but the players should be free enough to perform as they would like.

Newcastle United are on a very good run of 4 consecutive wins which has pulled them away from the bottom three, and they won their last away game at Leicester City. That should give them enough belief they can head to Goodison Park and pose problems for an Everton team who have not won any of their last 3 League games.

However you can't ignore the fact that Everton have played 2 of the top four in that time and they have generally performed better at home. Some of the football has been disappointing under Sam Allardyce and that has put the fans off from backing him to stay in charge of the club, but no one can deny it has mainly been effective to make sure Everton were not involved in a relegation battle.

The home form has generally been pretty good under Allardyce and only the 1-1 home draw with West Brom under the former England manager could be seen as a poor result. Everton have beaten West Ham United, Huddersfield Town, Swansea City, Leicester City, Crystal Palace and Brighton at home since Allardyce took over as manager and the other failures to win games here outside of the West Brom game have been against top five clubs.

Everton have a strong record at home against Newcastle United and I think they can win this fixture too. I don't doubt that Newcastle United are playing well enough to earn a result here, but I lean towards Everton and backing them on the Asian Handicap will return half the stake if this does end in a draw.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is a heatwave in the United Kingdom with some unusually high April temperatures in London which could play a real part in this FA Cup Semi Final. The fans will be hoping the football on the pitch can match the weather as Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet for a place in the Cup Final on May 19th.

Both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have some questions to answer having had an up and down week in the Premier League in the chase for one of the top four positions.

At least Manchester United bounced back from a stunning loss to West Brom by beating Bournemouth on Wednesday night whereas Tottenham Hotspur have failed to win either of their last 2 League games.

Losing back to back games at Wembley Stadium will also be on the mind of the Tottenham Hotspur players despite their familiarity with what has been 'home' in the 2017/18 season. That has given Tottenham Hotspur an edge in this Semi Final and has to be considered one of the main reasons they are favoured to beat Manchester United having done the same in the Premier League in January.

That game was changed completely after Tottenham Hotspur scored in the opening seconds, but this time Manchester United may come in with more belief having beaten the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City recently. The loss to West Brom was a strange day, but the bounce back at Bournemouth and 7 wins from 9 games means Manchester United do come in with confidence.

Tottenham Hotspur's familiarity with Wembley Stadium may give them plenty of belief of their own and I think this will be a good Cup Semi Fina.

My lean is that Manchester United do earn the result to take them through to the FA Cup Final for the second time in three years. However Tottenham Hotspur won't go down without a fight either and the attacking players should have opportunities in this one with every chance of seeing three goals shared out by the teams.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: This FA Cup Semi Final may mean a great deal more to Chelsea than Southampton in the grand scheme of things, but playing at Wembley Stadium with a trophy just two games away is not something to ignore for the Southampton players.

This is a team who reached the League Cup Final last season but things have taken a rapid downward swing since that day. Now it looks like Southampton are destined for relegation down to the Championship as they have slumped in the Premier League and the focus has to be in avoiding the drop.

Of course they won't want to throw away the FA Cup Semi Final, but Mark Hughes has suggested he will freshen things up and I think he may consider resting key players for the final four League games.

Antonio Conte's focus is much easier to understand as he bids to help Chelsea win their remaining fixtures regardless of how that will affect his future as manager of the club. Winning out will give Chelsea an outside chance of a top four finish, but Conte will get the chance to sign off with a trophy and that has to be at the forefront of his mind.

Recent Chelsea performances will encourage Conte with impressive wins over Southampton and Burnley particularly the way Chelsea have rallied under pressure. The win over Southampton gives Chelsea a real mental advantage in this Semi Final and they will feel they can expose what has been a shaky defensive unit to say the least.

Chelsea look more secure with their formation and the team that is likely going to be picked and I would be surprised if they can't make it three wins in a week. The likes of Eden Hazard and Willian are well rested and should be ready to make an impact in this Semi Final and I am going to back Chelsea to win by a couple of goals on the day as they punish Southampton for chasing a way back into this one late in the day.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Watford-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)