Monte Carlo Tennis Picks 2018 (April 16th)

A strong Saturday showing from the Tennis Picks meant adding some more positive numbers to the season totals.

That came after a poor middle of the week so any positive to add to the season totals after putting another week in the books has to be seen as a good week.

This week the ATP Tour moves onto the first major tournament of the clay court season in the build to the French Open as the Masters in Monte Carlo has gotten underway. Some of the big names may be missing, notably Roger Federer who won't be seen on the Tour until June once the grass court tournaments begin, but Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are both in the draw this week.

Rafael Nadal is going to be a clear favourite for every clay court tournament he enters and he did look good in Davis Cup action for Spain which makes him the player to beat on the ATP Tour. He will be looking to underline that with a win in Monte Carlo and receives a bye through to the Second Round.


On Monday there are a number of First Round matches scheduled to be played, but I didn't really find a lot of angles that appealed to me.

It all adds up to the one sole pick from the matches which can be read below.


Aljaz Bedene - 4.5 games v Mirza Basic: After being involved in back to back Masters tournaments on the hard courts in North America, Aljaz Bedene will return on the clay courts in Monte Carlo. On first glance this is a lot games for a player to cover when playing the first clay court match in a couple of months, but Bedene has really enjoyed clay court tennis in recent seasons and has to be confident of making a strong start to this tournament.

He is facing a Lucky Loser in Mirza Basic who was beaten comfortably in the final Qualifying Round before earning a backdoor entry into the main draw. The two matches he has played in the Qualifiers will give Basic a slight edge with the conditions more familiar to him than Bedene, but I am not convince that will be enough to keep this match closer than the number indicates.

Earlier this season Basic won a title on the indoor hard courts, but he has yet to show any kind of form on the clay courts. He did beat Robin Haase in Marrakech last week which is a solid win, but Basic is going to have to be even better if he is going to beat Bedene who has been dominant on this surface.

Bedene has been particularly strong when he has faced players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and he is 24-1 on the clay courts against those players since the beginning of the 2017 season. You could not possibly say he has been fortunate either with a tremendous hold percentage of at least 84% in those each of the last two seasons backed up by strong returning.

He will believe he can get after the Basic serve on this surface and he can outwork him in the rallies which tend to be a little longer on the clay. Bedene is a player that could have another strong clay court season if he is given the right draws, although the winner of this tie is going to be facing Rafael Nadal in the Second Round.

If Bedene can get anything near the numbers he has produced on the clay courts over the last fourteen months I would think he can see off Basic effectively. This is a big number of games to be covered, but Bedene has the return game to put himself in a position to do that and I will back him to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 21.80 Units (464 Units Staked, + 4.70% Yield)