It had been a difficult start to the week at the Monte Carlo Masters, but Thursday proved a good day to turn things around with a 3-0 return from the Tennis Picks made.
Nothing was easy on Thursday, but I have stuck with the methods that have been successful the last couple of months instead of losing heart after some disappointing luck contributed to a couple of losing Picks.
The numbers were on my side in the matches played on Thursday, but this time I also had the bit of luck that is always needed when it comes to the break points being converted and that saw the three selections coming back as we wanted.
On Friday the four Quarter Final matches are set to be played back to back and I have three selections from the four matches scheduled for the day.
Grigor Dimitrov v David Goffin: This has all the makings of a good Quarter Final even if there are a couple of doubts about both Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin. The former is someone who has yet to show the consistency on the clay courts fitting of a top 5 Ranked player, while the latter has not really shown his best tennis since returning from an eye injury.
The wins this week will have given both Dimitrov and Goffin confidence, but you can't dispute the mental edge has to be with the Bulgarian having beaten Goffin in nine of their ten matches since turning professional.
Only one of those matches took place on the clay courts though and that was a long time ago to be virtually irrelevant, although the big wins over the last six months over Goffin will certainly be fresh in Dimitrov's mind.
Dimitrov's numbers are not that bad, but he has to find a way to be a little more effective when it comes to the break of serve. He wins enough return points but perhaps has to knuckle down mentally to produce his best tennis when the chances come his way, chances that should come against Goffin's serve which can be erratic to say the least.
The basic Goffin numbers indicate that it is his return game which has proven so effective on the clay, which is not a big surprise. However those return games take a significant nosedive when Goffin faces top 20 Ranked players on this surface and Dimitrov's serve has proven to be effective enough regardless of who he faces to give him the edge in this one.
The head to head underlines his strength and Dimitrov can be backed as the underdog to win this Quarter Final.
Marin Cilic v Kei Nishikori: This is a classic match up of the big server and big hitting Marin Cilic taking on the faster, better mover around the court in Kei Nishikori and the winner is going to be the one who can impose his game on the other more often than not. It is no surprise to me that the head to head is as close as it is between Nishikori and Cilic and the layers are expecting another close match on Friday.
Where Kei Nishikori has needed to win three matches to get through to the Quarter Final, Cilic has needed to win just one having received a bye in the First Round and then seeing Milos Raonic withdraw from the Third Round match before they had taken to the court.
That could mean Cilic is a little undercooked on this surface which would be a concern as the feeling is that Nishikori is perhaps the superior player on the clay courts. However Cilic has produced some eye-catching numbers on the clay courts over the last couple of seasons thanks to a very strong return game and that could be a key to this match too.
We know Cilic is going to produce some big serves which can give him a chance to get on the front foot immediately, but he will also challenge the Nishikori second serve as he bids to move into the Semi Final. This is also a difficult time for Nishikori who is only recently back from an injury which means he is not going to be used to playing as much tennis as he has so far this week.
There were a few signs of tiredness from Nishikori in his tough win over Andreas Seppi in the Third Round and I think Cilic is going to exert some mental pressure with a strong return throughout this match. It won't be all Cilic's way with the Nishikori performances so far this week, but I am looking for the Croatian to battle through for the win and secure his final four spot.
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This has been the second solid week in a row that Richard Gasquet has put on the board, but reaching a second consecutive Semi Final on the clay courts won't be easy. He did beat Mischa Zverev in straight sets on Thursday, but now Gasquet has to face the younger Zverev brother who looks to have a big future in the sport.
Alexander Zverev has not been in the best form when you consider he has needed three sets to beat both Gilles Muller and Jan-Lennard Struff to move into the Quarter Final. The stand out issue is clear as he has not served anything close to the level he usually produces and that has meant Zverev has had to work much harder to win his matches.
Despite the poorer serve numbers, Zverev has won matches thanks to an effective return and he will feel he can get into the Gasquet service games. On the other hand Richard Gasquet will feel he can do the same against Zverev if the youngster is not serving at his peak level although I do think it is a matter of time before Alexander Zverev gets it right.
Matches between these players may have all landed in favour of the German but Gasquet has been competitive in every one. He has played a lot of tennis over the last ten days though and Gasquet's serve has not been as strong as he would like and I think that is tested to the full by Zverev.
It could be another close one between these two players, but I think the higher upside remains with Zverev and I think he redeems the family name with a win and a cover on Friday.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Matin Cilic @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 5-4, + 0.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment