NBA Play Offs 2018- First Round (April 14-23)

NBA Play Offs 2018- First Round Series

The NBA regular season is a little disappointing when you think more than half of those teams will make it into the NBA Play Offs, although the incredible race in the Western Conference went right down to the wire and provided plenty of entertainment.

Ultimately the real NBA season begins now with the start of the First Round Series in both the Eastern and Western Conference and there are some good looking Series in prospect.

For most the Cleveland Cavaliers will be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference having represented in three straight NBA Finals, but I do think both Conferences look very open with questions about every single team.

Of course it would be a real surprise to see the four lower Seeds in both Conferences making it through to the NBA Finals in June, but they have enough quality to challenge their higher Ranked opponents in the First Round. The Series I am particularly keen on seeing is how the Toronto Raptors deal with the Washington Wizards in a Number 1 vs Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference while the Houston Rockets have to prove themselves all over again as the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

I am going to split the NBA Play Off Picks into two threads with the first one covering the first four games in all of the Series set to be played and the second the remaining games that are necessary to play.

This season has been a different one for the NBA Picks with my last being made back in December. Illness and generally busyness meant I was not able to do the strong research I like for the Picks and that meant I decided to wait until the Play Offs begun to get back on track.

I had made a decent start back in December so there is a positive number to build on as we look forward to two months of Play Off Basketball before the Football World Cup Finals begin.

This thread will also be my 'Featured Post' from Sunday and interchanging with the Tennis and Football Picks to come over the next ten days.

I will be making Picks from every NBA Play Off Game, although some of those will have to be considered zero unit selections too.

Saturday 14th April

There are four Play Off games scheduled for Saturday with two each from the Eastern and Western Conference First Round Series.

San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Pick: This has been a different kind of season than the one the Golden State Warriors have enjoyed over the last three years when they have been the best team in the NBA. Instead of coming in as the Number 1 Seed as expected, the Golden State Warriors are the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference and have been rewarded with a First Round Play Off Series with the Number 7 Seed San Antonio Spurs.

This is a repeat of the Western Conference Finals played last season, but the San Antonio Spurs have also had a down year as they have failed to reach 50 wins for the first time in eighteen years. However they did keep their 20 year Play Off streak alive by scraping into the top eight in the loaded Western Conference although not many will be tipping up the upset.

The Spurs have been missing Kahwi Leonard for much of the season and they are not likely to see their star player return for this Series. That will mean there won't be a lot of sympathy for the Golden State Warriors who have lost Steph Curry for the First Round Series, although the Warriors can expect Curry back for the Semi Final onwards.

Losing Curry has been a blow for the Golden State Warriors who ended up losing ten of their last seventeen games and there has been some suggestion that Steve Kerr is not having the same impact as Head Coach. The question to answer is how much of the Golden State issues have just been a state of mind of a team who have been there and done it in the Play Offs over the last three seasons.

Even without Curry the Warriors have to feel comfortable with the match up with the San Antonio Spurs and they still have the scoring power to take any game away from the ageing Spurs team. There may still be some Play Off heroics from the likes of Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker but over the course of a best of seven Series I would favour the Warriors to come through even without Curry.

San Antonio have simply struggled for consistency Offensively all season to suggest they can score enough points to beat this Warriors team. However they have at least played them close in the last couple of games between these teams and have plenty of veteran experience that can at least give them a shot in Game 1 of the Series.

A 3 point loss in this Arena and a comfortable win at home will give the Spurs some belief, although the latter came in a game where the top four Golden State players were unavailable. Golden State are a dangerous team to oppose with the likes of Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson capable of getting hot and taking this game away from the San Antonio Spurs, but I think it is also difficult to turn form on and off like a tap.

That could mean San Antonio make a good, competitive start to this Series as they did in the Western Conference Finals before being blown out three times in a row. Recent games have seen Golden State playing a little out of focus which has seen their Defensive play down on the season totals, and that has to offer San Antonio some encouragement even they can be Offensively challenged.

The Spurs were not very good on the road, but Golden State have not covered in their last four home games against a team with a losing record on the road. This first game may see the Warriors just not quite completely focused which makes the number of points being given to the San Antonio Spurs look attractive.

Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors Pick: They may have finished with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but even the Toronto Raptors own fanbase are feeling a little nervous about their team now we enter Play Off Basketball. The Raptors have flattered to deceive in the Play Offs in recent years despite some strong regular season performances and Game 1 will be particularly nerve wracking the for fans.

The Toronto Raptors are making the Play Offs for a fifth straight season and they have finished in the top four of the Eastern Conference in each of those years. In that time they have played seven Play Off Series and Toronto have lost Game 1 in every one of those, while five of those losses came in games at home.

It is an incredibly poor record that DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry will be bidding to improve which will also improve their own standing in the NBA circles. Many times the Raptors were tipped as a dark horse only to lose Play Off Series as the favourites, although the last two seasons have seen the Cleveland Cavaliers knock them out twice.

That could be a potential Semi Final match up for the Raptors if both them and the Cavaliers can get through their First Round Series, but Toronto also have to deal with a ghost of recent Play Off past. In the 2015 Play Offs, the Washington Wizards swept the Raptors out of the Play Offs which began with back to back wins in Canada, and that won't have been forgotten by the players or the fans in what could be a tense opening game.

The 2018 Washington Wizards are not as good as the 2015 version with John Wall not quite up to full speed on his return from injury and tensions within the team. There is some real talent on the roster which will make Washington dangerous, but they are reliant on the three point shot and can struggle when that isn't dropping.

Losing six of seven games is not the way to enter the Play Offs either and this is not a great match up for the Wizards. The Toronto Raptors have the size to challenge Washington on the boards if the three pointers are not working, while their bench has been a revelation to give Toronto the kind of depth they have missed for years.

Add in the strong Defensive showings the Raptors have produced and I do think they are going to win this Series and just erase a few doubts about themselves. However I also think it is difficult to ignore the tension that is likely to be in this Arena if this game is close and that makes the points very appealing for Washington despite their poor play down the stretch.

Washington have tended to play up to the level of competition they have faced this season and they have a 7-3 record against the spread when given 6 or more points as the underdog. Games between the teams have gone down to the wire and Toronto may be without Fred VanVleet who has been huge coming off the bench. That is balanced out by the doubts about Otto Porto Jr's availability for Washington, but I expect him to play and Washington are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games here.

However they are not playing as well as they would have liked which reduces the enthusiasm for the points they are receiving. It may be home nerves which really helps Washington keep this one close and I will take the points with the road underdog.

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: If you have been 'Trusting the Process' in Philadelphia then you will have known all along that the 76ers would be soon back in the Play Offs. They are back in the post-season for the first time since the 2011/12 season although Joel Embiid is not likely to be suiting up for Game 1.

That hasn't mattered to the 76ers at the end of the season as they won their last fifteen regular season games which means they finished above the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Number 3 Seed in the Eastern Conference. It is a home Series with the Miami Heat that Philadelphia have to negotiate and some are expecting a lot from a young team without the Play Off experiences others can call upon.

With the Boston Celtics banged up, Philadelphia may be primed to not only have their first Play Off games in six years but they could be considered the favourites to make it through to the Eastern Conference Finals. No one here will be looking past the Miami Heat, but it just goes to show how well Philadelphia have played that optimism have reached such a level.

The 76ers have continued their roll without Embiid and they have a star player in Ben Simmons who has taken the League by storm. There is room for improvement for Simmons to produce to reach the next level, but he is the leading contender for the 'Rookie of the Year' spot and some think the Play Offs could be his break out moment to take the next step in his career.

Philadelphia do match up well with the Miami Heat in most aspects, although the Heat have plenty more experience at this level of Basketball. They may have missed out on the Play Offs last season, but Miami will look to drag Philadelphia into tough Play Off spots and see how their younger opponents can cope with the different pressures that come out of those spots.

On the face of things the 76ers have the size to match up with Miami and they have been an underrated Defensive team which could make it very difficult for Miami to score against them. There are some similarities with both teams getting some decent production off the bench to boost their chances, and games between these teams have been very competitive this season.

All four games in the regular season were won by the home team, but those came by 6, 2, 1 and 9 point margins. The Heat are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games against Philadelphia and both teams have strong trends at home and on the road respectively.

However I will take a position with the Miami Heat in Game 1 as they perhaps take advantage of some nerves that the home team have in their first Play Off game for many of their starters. The 76ers are the better team, but the Heat have played Philadelphia close this season and taking the points in Game 1 looks the play.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: A poor end to the regular season is the reason the Portland Trail Blazers have not ended up with a record closer to the Golden State Warriors, but the Number 3 Seed in the Western Conference has been secured for some time. In a loaded Western Conference any First Round series has to be considered a tough one and the Trail Blazers will be very aware of how well the New Orleans Pelicans have been playing.

The injury to DeMarcus Cousins was supposed to keep the Pelicans out of the Play Offs, but Anthony Davis has been playing really well to earn a return to the post-season.

Much of the chances for success will depend on Davis and how much he is able to impose himself on this First Round series against a really strong Portland team.

The Trail Blazers have a strong back court which can produce some heady numbers and both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have produced some huge Play Off moments which will make Portland favourites to reach the Conference Semi Finals. Both players do have some questions to answer with Lillard banged up and McCollum struggling as the Trail Blazers slumped at the end of the regular season.

Momentum is not so much an issue for New Orleans who won five games in a row to ensure they did not slip out of the top eight in the Western Conference. Two of those wins have come against teams in the Play Offs and that should give the Pelicans plenty of belief that they can stun the Trail Blazers.

Having Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo in the back court to challenge McCollum and Lillard could be key for the Pelicans as both of those players have been playing well themselves. The Pelicans have been shooting really well from the field in their run at the end of the regular season and a key for them here is having shooters who can get hot from the three point range if Portland are trying to double team Davis.

Backing against Portland is tough with the way they have played at home, but New Orleans did win a game here in the regular season. Games between the teams have been very competitive but the momentum here is with the New Orleans Pelicans and they can keep this close.

Both teams have some strong numbers against the spread in home/away games respectively and I think this is going to depend on how well the New Orleans back court can contain the damage McCollum and Lillard are able to do. The recent form of McCollum is a worry for the home team though and I think I will take another road underdog in Game 1's being played on Saturday.


Sunday 15th April
The first four Play Off Games are played on Saturday and the remaining four are played on Sunday before we settle into two or three games per day over the next week.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Pick: If things had gone right for the Boston Celtics they would have been entering the Play Offs with the likes of Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Al Horford leading the team. The 'Big Three' were brought together last summer to get over the Cleveland Cavaliers hurdle, but Hayward was lost for the season in the opening minutes of the 2017/18 season.

More recently Irving has been lost for the season and Marcus Smart is another key player who won't be available for the Boston Celtics.

With that in mind, all credit to Boston for finishing as the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference, although they now look like a weakened opponent that other teams will be happy to match up with.

I would have imagined Boston would be the underdog against most teams in the Play Offs, but the bottom three in the Eastern Conference have major flaws and that includes their opponents the Milwaukee Bucks. This was supposed to be a much stronger season than we have seen and going into the Play Offs with an interim Head Coach is not a good look for any team.

Of course they have the Greek Freak Giannis Antetokounmpo back from an injury and he is capable of putting the Bucks on his back to win this series. All of the games between these teams in the regular season were close enough to offer Milwaukee encouragement, but the Bucks have been erratic in recent weeks which does make it tough to get a really good read on them.

Milwaukee will be challenged by the really good Defensive schemes cooked up by Brad Stevens, but there is no doubting that they seem to have the talent edge in this First Round series. The Celtics have shown they are gutsy and willing to fight all the way despite the injuries on the roster which have gutted their team and that makes them dangerous, especially with an expected edge in the Coaching department.

Even with that in mind, games between these teams have been close and I think the Bucks rally together to try and steal one on the road. The experiences from the Play Offs last season should stand Milwaukee in good stead and the four regular season games were decided by 8, 7, 11 and then 4 points when they met at the beginning of the month.

The Bucks only covered in one of the three games, but that came here in the TD Garden and they have covered the spread in two of their last three visits to this Arena. This is likely to be another really close game and Milwaukee match up well enough with the Celtics to be worthy of backing with the start.


Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: When the decision was made to accept a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder and allow Paul George to leave, most Indiana Pacers fans would have thought this was going to be a lost season for their team. Some even suggested Indiana would be one of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference, but instead they have overachieved to the point they almost earned home court in the First Round of the Play Offs.

Instead they finished with the Number 5 Seed and drew the short straw of facing three time defending Eastern Conference Champions Cleveland Cavaliers in the First Round. One bit of confidence for the Pacers is they have won three of the four regular season games against the Cavaliers, although Play Off Cleveland are a different proposition.

It could be a key Play Offs for the Cavaliers with rumours suggesting LeBron James is going to move on at the end of the season. A strong run might persuade him to change his mind, while a NBA Championship surely means James re-signs with the Cavaliers, but this is the weakest the Cavaliers have looked since he returned to his home town team.

Cleveland have struggled for consistency all season, but have shown flashes of what they can put together. The huge number of moves made before the trade deadline was a real surprise, but Cleveland will come in healthy and they still are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.

To win the NBA Finals, Cleveland are going to have to improve markedly when it comes to the Defensive side of the court. It will be interesting to see if this Indiana Pacers team have enough to expose those holes in a best of seven series and that is despite the fact they have won three of four against Cleveland in the regular season.

Offensively Cleveland have shown they are very tough to slow down and I do worry for the Indiana Pacers in this First Round series. The Cavaliers have strong three point shooting which could see them pull away from any opponent, although I think Indiana can make this a decent opening game with the way they have played this season.

Indiana have to find a way to challenge the Cavaliers on the glass if they have real ambitions of beating them but I think they can at least keep this one competitive. The Pacers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five visits to the Cavaliers who have been a terrible home team against the number this season.

It also has to be noted some of the really strong numbers Indiana have produced against the spread which represent the spot they are in on Sunday. Victor Oladipo has been a little banged up but he is going to be huge for the Indiana Pacers and I think they can at least keep this opening game competitive as they try and steal home court away from the Cavaliers in the next few days.


Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: It goes to show how tough the Western Conference Play Off race was that a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder were in danger of missing the top eight, but won four of their last five games to finish with home court advantage in this First Round series.

The Thunder brought together Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to join Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams as they looked to be competitive against the Golden State Warriors. There were some really positive moments for the three players, but they also had some tough times gelling together and it is hard to know what Thunder team turn up in the Play Offs.

Oklahoma City will be dangerous as long as they are alive in the Play Offs, but this is far from an easy First Round series when they face the Utah Jazz. Losing Gordon Hayward was a blow before the season began, but the Jazz have surprised with a strong season.

Most of the fans will be very grateful to rookie Donovan Mitchell who has been fighting it out with Ben Simmons for 'Rookie of the Year'. Mitchell has been a very good scorer for the Utah Jazz and his match up against Russell Westbrook is going to be huge on both sides of the court.

It should be a fun watch as two teams with surprising Defensive strength meet each other and the layers are finding it difficult to separate them. The spread for the first game tempted me into backing Oklahoma City who beat Utah twice at home in the regular season and both times fairly comfortably.

However Rudy Gobert is back and Utah have also added Jae Crowder to their roster which has improved their Defensive look and I think instead of the point spread that a look at the total points line is worth considering.

Both teams match up pretty well with one another which means the Defensive sets might be able to get the other into the half court and preventing those fast break points. Fouls could be an issue with teams going to the line meaning the game is extended but I think the total points line is a few points higher than it should be.

The 'under' beat out the 'over' in both team's regular season record. None of their four regular season games would have surpassed the number set for Game 1 in the Play Off and I think the Utah Jazz are a better Defensive team than they were when the majority of their regular season games were played.

The 'under' is also 21-7 in the last twenty-eight games between Oklahoma City and Utah and I do think the Defensive side of the court is where both teams are underrated.


Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Play Offs begin on Saturday, but the Minnesota Timberwolves will already feel like they are in the post-season. They ended a 14 year wait for a Play Off berth by seeing off the Denver Nuggets in Overtime on the final day of the regular season which was essentially a Play Off game with the losing team missing out on the post-season.

It is now up to Minnesota to pick themselves up to go again from a huge emotional effort put forth on Wednesday. Of course they have a few days to recover emotionally and get ready to go in Game 1, but they have the added task of taking on the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

The Houston Rockets made some bold moves in the off-season to get James Harden the help to get closer to the Golden State Warriors and they were the best team in the regular season. However Harden and Chris Paul have a point to prove in the Play Offs having failed to have the success they would have wanted and that is some real pressure for the Rockets to be dealing with.

Houston should feel comfortable with the match up having swept the regular season against the Minnesota Timberwolves who are still trying to find the Defensive identity that Tom Thibodeau feels most comfortable with. He has signed a number of his former Chicago Bulls players to speed up the change in culture here and Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson are going to play a huge part in this series.

On the face of things you would say Minnesota should match up pretty well with the Houston Rockets but that has not been the case so far. They have the size and they shoot well enough from the field to challenge the Rockets and to stay with them, but a big difference is the way the two teams shoot from outside the three point arc.

Not many can shoot the ball as well as Houston can from that distance, but to double the three point output that the Minnesota Timberwolves have over the course of a season is a huge difference. The three pointer was also the key shot in the four game regular series between these teams and that is likely to prove to be the difference maker in this one too.

It could be a game where Houston struggle with the weight of expectation on their shoulders having earned the Number 1 Seed. However the match up has worked out in their favour over the course of the season which may ease those tensions in this Round and I think the Rockets will be a little too good for Minnesota.

It also would not be a huge surprise if Minnesota just struggle to stay in this one from a mental perspective having put in a huge effort to make the Play Offs. This is a new experience for so many of their younger players and Houston have been strong enough to expose some of the Defensive shortcomings Minnesota have.

This is a big number for Houston to cover though when you think they are 9-17 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season. However I do expect the Rockets to score their points and it will be up to Minnesota to try and stay with them which should produce a game that covers the total point line.

The last three regular season games between these teams would have covered this total points line and I think we could see plenty of three pointers attempted in this one which can help this one surpass the number too.


Monday 16th April
Every single Game 1 of the NBA First Round Series are in the books and the home teams have been very good at holding serve. A couple of them failed to do that with Portland and Cleveland both losing, but it was a strong start for the teams favoured to move through.

Adjustments will be made as we get into the Game 2's which begin on Monday and I will have to make some too after perhaps putting too much faith in a couple of overmatched teams.

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The underdogs did not have a lot of success through Game 1 of the NBA First Round Series and one of those looking to bounce back are the Miami Heat. They were leading at half time of their game against the Philadelphia 76ers before being blown out in the second half and the news hasn't got much better for the Heat now that Joel Embiid is on the road back to getting into the rotation.

It is unlikely that Embiid is going to take part in Game 2, but the Philadelphia 76ers continue to produce a huge outpouring of points as they destroyed Miami from the three point arc in Game 1.

That saw them blow the game wide open in the second half having gone into the half time break down in the first Play Off Game in a number of season. However the second half was played exactly how the 76ers would have liked with the quick pace suiting them far more than the Miami Heat, while a dominant home record since the turn of the calendar year is only going to give this team more confidence going forward.

You have to think Miami are going to call upon all of the experience they have to try and make the adjustments to what the 76ers were able to do in the second half of Game 1. There is a clear Play Off advantage when it comes to the Head Coaching experience the Heat can fall back on, but ultimately this could easily come down to a talent differential between the teams.

Hassan Whiteside continues to be on a different page to Eric Spoelstra and his limited impact in Game 1 has to be a real worry for the Miami Heat. They may ask Dwyane Wade to carry more of the load for the team, but Wade is in the back part of his career and I am not sure extra minutes are going to improve his efficiency in this Series.

The Heat will have to play much better Defense from the three point line if they are going to make this a really competitive series, and recent performances of allowing teams to shoot at over 40% from that distance won't get it done. I do have to feel the Heat are going to be better for longer in this one, but I am concerned for them having lost all three games in Philadelphia this season.

It was also the third blow out the Heat have suffered in their last four games and they are facing a really hot Philadelphia team who have won sixteen in a row and been scoring points for fun. That has inspired more energy on the Defensive side of the court and around the glass and Philadelphia are capable of taking this Game 2 away from their visitors very quickly too.

Only one of the last fourteen games for Philadelphia have ended in a win by less than 7 points and they are also now 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games against Miami. I would be surprised if the Heat shoot as badly as they did in the first game, but I was impressed enough by the 76ers to change my mind on Game 2 compared with Game 1 and I will look for the home team to move to 2-0 both straight up and against the spread.


San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Pick: With Kahwi Leonard out of the line up, the San Antonio Spurs are simply not ready to compete with the very best teams in the Western Conference. Their struggles in the regular season saw them miss 50 wins for the first time in a generation and their long Play Off streak was only barely extended.

Even with that in mind I thought the Spurs would come out and play their basketball with some freedom as most would have ruled them out of being capable of upsetting the Golden State Warriors in this First Round Series. The Warriors have not been at their best in the last few weeks so they looked vulnerable, but I could not have been more wrong with the Spurs selection to cover the number.

Instead of playing at the kind of levels we have seen with the Warriors, the defending Champions went back to their basics and dominated Defensively as they shut down the San Antonio Spurs. We all know Golden State can score plenty of points so being able to hold the Spurs to the 40% from the field was always going to lead to a blow out.

That also means there are a number of adjustments Gregg Popovich will have to make to ensure the Spurs are more competitive in Game 2 and perhaps making this a competitive Series. It is tough and Popovich hinted at that in his post-game presser on Saturday, while having a day of rest is not a lot of time to get things back on track before the Series heads to Texas for two games later this week.

There is a chance the blow out in Game 1 only frees up the San Antonio players even more while Golden State have to make sure there isn't any complacency in their game. If that happens there is chance for the Spurs to try and steal home court, but it looks a long shot with the Warriors in 'Play Off mode' and having a significant edge in talent to rely upon.

A deep rotation means the Warriors are once again big favourites to beat the Spurs and I can't argue with that. I really thought the Spurs would make a fight out of Game 1, but the worry now is that the Series slips away much like it did in the Western Conference Finals as San Antonio were swept away with 36, 12 and 14 point losses in Games 2, 3 and 4.

Another Defensive showing like the one produced on Saturday will make it very difficult for the San Antonio Spurs to compete with the Golden State Warriors and they need a lot of things to fall their way if they are going to close the 21 point gap from Game 1. I am not convinced they have the time to do that here and Golden State looked primed to improve their 6-2 record against the spread from the last eight games between these teams.

I admire Gregg Popovich, but I am not sure the Head Coach has enough options to do much better with his Spurs team barring the Golden State Warriors having an off day.


Tuesday 17th April
I couldn't believe the way the Philadelphia 76ers fell off a cliff in the Second Quarter of their Game 2 loss to the Miami Heat, especially when you think they outscored the Heat in the other three Quarters.

Unfortunately that wasn't good enough for the 76ers who are tied 1-1 with Miami as they head to South Beach for two games.

The other Series played on Monday is once again seeing the Golden State Warriors dominating the San Antonio Spurs. It is hard to see how the Spurs can play better than they did in Game 2 which still resulted in a double digit loss.

Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat Pick: The Washington Wizards felt they had every chance to extend the Toronto Raptors misery in opening games in Play Off Series, but ultimately they didn't even cover the spread. There was a key moment in the middle of the Fourth Quarter where Mike Scott was called for a foul which sent the Wizards into a tailspin as a one point lead quickly became a nine point deficit.

They were not really able to close that gap significantly and the Wizards are now looking to make the adjustments to try and steal home court before Games 3 and 4 are playing back in DC.

The important numbers from Game 1 were clearly from the three point range where the Wizards struggled for a real impact while the Toronto Raptors hit a franchise record 16 three pointers in a Play Off Game. Some of those came from role players coming off the bench, but the Wizards were comfortable with the shots they allowed those players.

It wasn't all positive from Washington who need to show some real Defensive improvement in this Game 2. They allowed Toronto to hit over 50% from the field which is not going to get it done against a confident Number 1 Seed, and closing on the three point shooters is important with Scott Brooks identifying the difference in amount of points scored from that range as the difference maker in Game 1.

A concern for the Wizards is that they have not been very good at defending the three point line in recent games, but they will also force the Toronto role players to hit the same shots they made in Game 1.

Toronto will feel relieved to have won Game 1 and that may help the entire team grow as they look to defend home court for a second time. The depth continues to be a huge advantage in the rotation even though Fred VanVleet missed Game 1 and could potentially be ruled out in Game 2 too.

Dwane Casey will be asking for more of the same from his players who recovered from a half time deficit and made a big run in the Fourth Quarter to pull away for the victory. They have to make moves to the adjustments Washington will make, but Toronto are expecting another tough game and I have to feel the same way.

Games between these teams have been close all season and John Wall is going to be another couple of days healthier and I will look for the Wizards to cover having also been behind them in Game 1 when they earned a push. I would expect the Raptors role players to perhaps have a step back game after a huge Game 1 performance, while Washington can play a little better which may allow them to keep this one competitive.


Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Pick: It has to be considered one of the crazier endings to a Play Off Game so far when the Milwaukee Bucks forced Overtime against the Boston Celtics thanks to a 'Hail Mary' three pointer with less than one second left on the clock. That was fun to watch, but not fun for my Game 1 Pick as a miss would have meant the cover for the Bucks who eventually lost in Overtime by 6 points thanks to a foul given away with less than five seconds left on the clock.

I must have been as frustrated as the Milwaukee Bucks players who feel they missed an opportunity to steal home court advantage against the banged up Boston Celtics. Some of the issues were with some bad calls going against them in the final couple of minutes of Overtime with the game on a knife-edge.

Al Horford stepped up for the Celtics in Game 1 and much is going to depend on how much of a load he can carry in Game 2. Having a day of rest between games is a tough spot for a stretched Boston Celtics rotation, but Horford will hope some of the other role players can step up as they did to make some big plays in Game 1.

Brad Stevens is a very good Head Coach, but there is only so much he can do with the current rotation at his disposal and that means going to the well for the second time with a similar game plan. He has to be hoping that Horford has recovered after looking tired going into Overtime and also trying to second guess what the Milwaukee Bucks are going to do.

The Bucks will be looking for more out of their back court after seeing Eric Bledsoe and Tony Snell struggling in Game 1 and they will also be looking for an improvement from the three point line. Other than that they will recognise how well they played in Game 1 and slightly more composure when the tight moments arrive would have swung the pendulum in their favour.

Picking a winner doesn't look very easy but the sharp money has come in on the Milwaukee Bucks which has seen this spread come down 1.5 points from Game 1. However I think it is tough to call the winner with a slight lean towards the home team making it 2-0, and instead my focus is on the total points line.

Overtime was the only reason the total points were covered in Game 1, but I think the number has come down enough to take the 'over' here with the expected better shooting the Bucks should be able to produce.

Neither team has been playing as well Defensively as they would like, while the battling inside could lead to foul trouble early in Quarters which lengthens the game. The 'over' is actually 9-1-1 in the last eleven games between these teams in Boston and I think they can get to this number in regulation in Game 2.


New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: Most of the NBA Play Offs First Round Series begun with wins for the home teams defending their home court advantage. One of those that were not able to do that were the Portland Trail Blazers and they will be desperate to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole ahead of two games in New Orleans to come.

It was a close Game 1 which was won by the New Orleans Pelicans thanks to some late Free Throw shooting from Anthony Davis. The superstar for the Pelicans was very happy to have won his first Play Off game and Davis has been carrying the load for the New Orleans Pelicans since DeMarcus Cousins was lost for the season with an injury.

Davis had some big numbers in Game 1, but he can count on the support that Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday who were very important in the back court. Holiday's numbers were particularly eye-catching with a 50% success rate from the field which is huge when you think how good Holiday has been on the Defensive side of the court.

Rondo and Holiday got the better of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard in Game 1 which was huge in helping the Pelicans beat the Trail Blazers. Both McCollum and Lillard have a point to prove after an under-par showing Game 1, although McCollum has been in a slump for a while now.

Lillard is much easier to get behind with an ability to get mighty hot when he begins to feel his basketball and he is going to be very important in helping the Trail Blazers improve their under 38% shooting from the field from Game 1. Even with that in mind the Trail Blazers came close to edging out the Pelicans in Game 1 and that is going to give them confidence to take into Game 2 against a team who have matched up well with them this season.

Portland did create enough opportunities for a better shooting day and I think they can bounce back here. The trends favour them with Number 3 Seeds who have lost to Number 6 Seeds as a home favourite going 50-26-2 against the spread if they are home in the next game too.

There is every chance New Orleans just relax slightly having taken home court advantage and the Trail Blazers will be looking to respond. The number is a point bigger than it was when these teams met on Saturday, but this time I am backing the Trail Blazers to win and cover.


Wednesday 18th April
Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: It has simply not been something LeBron James will be used to, but his team are 0-1 in the First Round Series of the Play Offs for the first time in his career. The Cleveland Cavaliers home loss to the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 was not really down to a poor performance from James, but the lack of support the Cavaliers have given him were highlighted under the bright lights of the post-season.

An 18 point home loss will have hurt the players, but the Cavaliers have had two days to try and get back on track and they are once again being asked to cover a big number. Teams who have lost at home as the favourite and then play at home in their next Play Off Game have a very strong record of covering, but Tuesday saw the Portland Trail Blazers fall in that spot.

Not many will tip up Indiana to make it 2-0 in this First Round Series, but they look to be given a lot of points for the second time in a row. The Pacers will use that as motivation that this is a team that is simply not believed capable of securing the upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers despite a strong regular season against them and a Game 1 win in the bag.

There is a concern that the Pacers could relax with home court stolen from the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the way their team has come together would make that a surprise to say the least. The Pacers have also openly been speaking about not quite playing to their full potential in Game 1 which could make them even more dangerous in Game 2, especially when you think it was only the second time Indiana failed to score triple digits against the Cavaliers this season.

While they are expecting an improvement, Indiana also have to be ready for a reaction from the Cleveland Cavaliers who remain the favourites to win the Eastern Conference as long as LeBron James is healthy. James had a triple-double in Game 1, but expect to see the All-Star try and make an impact in this Game 2 from the off having only scored his first points when Indiana were 20 points up in Game 1.

The Cavaliers need James at his best as they have continued to show little improvement on the Defensive side of the court and that has been a big reason they have struggled against the spread all season. The Pacers have the energy and confidence to keep this Game 2 close as long as they haven't been over-celebrating the Game 1 win which would be a surprise.

Indiana have won straight up and covered in four of the five games between these teams including Game 1, while their sole loss to Cleveland came by 7 points. The Pacers are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six in this Arena and I am going to take the points in this one too.


Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: When the Oklahoma City Thunder brought together Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to join Russell Westbrook they were hoping they were bringing together a team to challenge the very best in the Western Conference. For much of the season there have been inconsistencies in the way the Thunder have performed, but they may be rounding into a gelled team at just the right time.

The Thunder ended the regular season in good form and they opened this First Round Series with a strong win over the Utah Jazz. Making it 2-0 before heading to Utah for two games won't be easy, especially if 'Play Off P' George is not able to go.

George has plenty of big time Play Off experiences from his time with the Indiana Pacers, and he made a franchise record eight three pointers for the Thunder in a dominant performance in Game 1. The hip injury which saw him sit the final minute of the win was a concern, but George is expected to suit up for the Thunder who will try and make it 2-0 here.

The injury to George will worry the home fans, but the Utah Jazz fanbase will also be looking forward to finding out if Donovan Mitchell is able to go in what has been a stellar rookie campaign from the young man. Mitchell played really well in Game 1 of his first Play Off start too, but he is playing with a banged up foot although he is not expected to miss Game 2.

Game 1 was a close contest and Game 2 is expected to go the same way. The battle on the boards is vital for both teams and getting something going from a player other than the two key ones in Rudy Gobart and Russell Westbrook is going to determine the winner of each game these teams play.

Oklahoma City do have a mental edge though having the last four games against the Utah Jazz this season and they have also covered the spread in the last three. However I think the Jazz are better than when the majority of those games were played and they can certainly make a game of this with two closely matched teams.

There wasn't a lot between the teams in Game 1 and very slight adjustments can make this closer than the 8 point gap that developed on Sunday. I will take the points with the road underdog who will be desperate to avoid a 2-0 hole here.


Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets did not perform to the standards set in the regular season, but that didn't matter as James Harden put the team on his back and carried them to a Game 1 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The road team have to feel they missed an opportunity to secure an upset and a steal of home court advantage but on the other hand they have to be happy with the game plan which made it a competitive game.

It was much different when the teams met in the regular season with the closest margin of victory for the Houston Rockets being 9 points in their four regular season wins over the Timberwolves.

One of the main reasons for the blow out wins for the Rockets over the Timberwolves was the vast discrepancy between the teams when it came to the three point shooting. That was not on the court in Game 1 as Houston struggled for the kind of performance they can usually produce from that distance and Minnesota have to be careful not to overplay the paint and allow the shooters to get off.

The Timberwolves will believe they can make it a much more competitive series than advertised if they can get more out of Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns. Both players underperformed in Game 1 and you have to think the adjustment will be to try and get both players going early in Game 2.

That won't be easy for Butler as he is having to guard James Harden on the other side of the court which does take a lot of energy for any player. However Butler has plenty of Play Off experience from his time with the Chicago Bulls and you have to think he can produce a much bigger game, even if he is not at 100%.

Houston won't be too concerned if they can get their own shooting back on track and I am going to believe in their ability to do that. I picked the 'over' in Game 1 which was quickly on the back foot, but I can't expect Houston to shoot as poorly from the three point range for a second game in a row.

I also think that will force Minnesota into a shot for shot quick game and they have scored 98 points or more in every game against Houston this season. These teams have enough Offensive quality to get into triple digits again and I think there will be more scoring than Game 1 as we get the 'over' this time.


Thursday 19th April
You'd have to be a real heartless piece of work to not love the NBA and being unable to sympathise with the great Gregg Popovich whose wife Erin passed away on Wednesday.

Your heart just goes out to Pop and his whole family.

It really does put things into perspective.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Pick: You may have been forgiven for thinking you were watching a Play Off Game from 2008 and not 2018 when seeing the kind of performance Dwyane Wade produced in Game 2 of this First Round Series. A vintage performance from Wade from the field including some critical plays in the Fourth Quarter helped the Miami Heat steal away home court from the Philadelphia 76ers as these teams meet for two games on South Beach.

Just when it looked like the Philadelphia 76ers were going to retrieve a win from the jaws of defeat Wade stepped up again, but asking the veteran to produce that level again may be clutching at straws. It's not completely beyond the realms of possibility with Wade's ability to step up when it comes to the Play Offs, but I do think he is very much on the slide in his career.

It was Wade who took the headlines out of Game 2, but the effort the Miami Heat made on the Defensive side of the court was clear to see. They challenged the 76ers from the three point line with long, rangy players managing to disrupt the home team who had bludgeoned them in Game 1.

There was a differential of eleven 'three pointers' from Game 1 to Game 2 and it is up to the 76ers to do better when they find themselves in the looks that have been key to their strong end to the regular season. This should still be a big focus for a team who were punched in the mouth in the Second Quarter of Game 2 yet were still in the contest down the stretch and narrowly beaten.

Ultimately that is down to the fact that Joel Embiid continues to miss games for the 76ers despite voicing his frustrations at being 'babied' by a franchise that won't clear him until they feel he is completely healthy. That is obviously the right way to go about things, but I can also feel Embiid's frustrations as he has long wanted to take the 76ers into the Play Offs and missed both home games in the Series.

Both teams have to feel good about their chances in Game 3 with the way they have played in the Series so far and I do think this is going to be in the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers. If they shoot as they did in their seventeen game winning run then they should have too much for a Miami team who used a big run in the Second Quarter to pull away and then hold on for their win in Game 2.

Another poor night from the three point range will give 76ers a tough road to win this one against this experienced Miami team, but I am not expecting another 11/16 effort from Dwyane Wade either. The Heat are a rugged outfit who have won both home games against Philadelphia earlier this season, but I think the 76ers shooting power even without Embiid's presence has to be respected.

One poor Quarter is the reason this Series is 1-1 going into Game 3 and I am looking for the 76ers to bounce back with a rare success in Miami.


Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: When you are the lower Seed in the First Round of the NBA Play Offs winning one of the first two games in the Series has to be considered a big achievement. The New Orleans Pelicans took it a step further by winning both games at the Portland Trail Blazers which means they are the only lower Seed in the Play Offs who have a 2-0 lead after the first two games have been played.

Now the Pelicans return home for two games and they have to make sure they are not showing any complacency in a Series which is still finely balanced. There haven't been a lot between the Trail Blazers and the Pelicans and the higher Seed are not losing their heads about their situation just yet.

Instead they are keeping things simple and know they have to try and win twice in New Orleans over the remainder of this Series, although Portland also accept they don't need to win both in Game 3 and Game 4. There should still be some real urgency in the Portland play when Game 3 begins and this is the first chance I will have to play a trend that has been gold for NBA bettors against the spread in the last three years.

New Orleans will feel they can complete the sweep over the next few days with the way they performed on the road as Jrue Holiday continues to shine. Most thought the Portland back court duo would be the key players in this Series, but Holiday's play at both ends of the court have proved to be the decisive factor in the Pelicans having a 2-0 lead.

Holiday will look to continue to harass Damian Lillard who has not played anywhere near his best in the first two games. Both Lillard and CJ McCollum have not played well at the same time either and Portland will need more from both players if they are going to work their way back into this Series and avoid the desperation of falling into a 3-0 deficit.

There has been little answer to Holiday on the New Orleans Offensive side of the court and that has helped Anthony Davis who continues to play at All-Star level. The Pelicans have to try and match the urgency their visitors are going to play with in this one and that has been difficult for teams who have a 2-0 lead in the NBA Play Offs in recent seasons.

No one can doubt why that is the case and I think backing Portland on the first half line is the way to go. The Trail Blazers led at half time in Game 2 before falling away to another loss and they should be the more focused team immediately out of the block.

The layers will cotton onto the first half situation, but I like taking the points with the road team at half time thanks to a strong trend in recent seasons.


Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: We all love the NBA, but sometimes life will remind you that other things are far more important.

Wednesday was one of those days with the news that Gregg Popovich's wife Erin had passed away.

Like many who either play or manage in the NBA, or those like me who love watching, Popovich is the kind of person you can only be drawn towards both for his professional and private comments. I admire Pop and I can only feel for what he is going through.

Emotion is going to be at an extreme level on Thursday when the San Antonio Spurs are scheduled to take to the court for the first time since the news broke about Erin Popovich's passing. The Spurs are 0-2 down in the First Round Series against the Golden State Warriors, but that is almost going to be a secondary thought for everyone in the building on Thursday and it's going to be an incredibly tough atmosphere in which to perform.

The San Antonio Spurs players will have been extremely affected by the news and it will be difficult to not be able to stand next to their Head Coach who won't be expected to Coach during this difficult time in his private life. However I also think they are going to be pumped to give their best for their hurting Head Coach and I expect the Spurs to ride the emotion of the building.

There is a lot of respect for Gregg Popovich from the Golden State Warriors side of the court too and I think this is going to be just as difficult for those players to perform. Head Coach Steve Kerr is close to Popovich too and I do think they could struggle slightly more than the home team in this intense environment that no one can become used to playing in.

San Antonio were leading at half time in Game 2 and I think the situation is going to see them come out hard in Game 3 too. Add in the trend for the teams 0-2 down in a Play Off Series and their first half performances in Game 3 and I am looking for the San Antonio Spurs to at least be tied at half time in this one.

Regardless of the scoreboard, most of us will be thinking of Gregg Popovich during these difficult times.


Friday 20th April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The opening Quarter of Game 2 highlighted to the Indiana Pacers how angry LeBron James was, but the underdogs took the early haymakers and fought back to narrowly go down. That has inspired the Pacers who return home to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers in two games in a row with the First Round Series tied 1-1.

The original goal for the Indiana Pacers was to steal home court so they won't be too down on themselves for not taking Game 2 as well as Game 1. The way they rallied in Game 2 has offered Indiana encouragement to take into the rest of this First Round Series and the players have been talking up the experience it is going to be to play in front of the raucous home crowd.

You have to think the Pacers fans have been itching to see the Play Offs begin in their home Arena and it is going to be a challenge for Cleveland to deal with the emotion that is going to be around. However any team that can give the ball to LeBron James is gong to feel good about their chances against any team they face and there is plenty of other experience in the rotation to help Cleveland deal with a difficult situation.

It is also important for the Pacers players to stay level headed in their home Arena with the encouragement from the fans perhaps seeing one or two pushing a little too much. Turnovers were a killer for Indiana in Game 2 and they need to make sure they are going back to basics in Game 3 with those adjustments critical to the outcome of this one.

Of course there is no accounting for LeBron James coming out and hitting everything and from everywhere like he did in Game 2. I imagine he is going to want to make a big impact immediately like he did last time out with the rest of the Cleveland players feeding off the energy generated by their talisman.

Kevin Love is set to go despite banging up his thumb in Game 2 but it is a tough place for Cleveland to visit having lost twice here in the regular season. Both times the Indiana Pacers were the home underdog though and I do wonder if they can avoid buying into their own hype in this Series as the narrow favourite to win Game 3.

Ultimately I do think the Pacers match up horribly for the Cleveland Cavaliers who have to play almost perfect basketball to beat them. The Cavaliers are capable of doing that and will be inspired by being the underdog here, but it does feel like they are going to need to play to a really high level and hope Indiana are overawed by the occasion.

The Pacers are 8-3-1 against the spread in their last twelve home games against Cleveland though and I think they will come out and make the right adjustments to take Game 3 in what could be a great Play Off Game 3. Keeping some kind of containment on LeBron will help, but the Pacers will believe they've taken his best shots and narrowly lost last time out and can overturn that here.


Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pick: Twice I have picked the Washington Wizards to cover against the Toronto Raptors and I have not been rewarded with a push and a loss as they went down 2-0 in this First Round Series. I mentioned the trend in the first half of Game 3 for those teams in the Play Offs who have fallen into a 2-0 hole but I am not going to play it here with the feeling the layers have made the adjustments.

That may also mean they have begun to overestimate the recovery of those teams and that may be the case when the Toronto Raptors cross the border to face the Washington Wizards on the road. So far the Wizards have shown little aptitude to do the necessary Defensive work and that has led to the Toronto Raptors being able to use their deeper rotations to pull away from their opponent.

The same could happen in the capital of the United States on Friday evening unless Washington can find a way for a better effort on the Defensive side of the ball. They have shown they can score plenty of points against the Toronto Raptors, but that won't mean anything if they can't stop a team scoring.

Three point shooting from the Raptors has been a devastating difference in the Series so far and the Raptors have shown the confidence of a Number 1 Seed by not panicking when Washington have made runs. Instead Toronto have made a strong run of their own to maintain their leads and this is a team looking like they want to exorcise the ghosts of Play Off failures past by destroying the Wizards in the same manner Toronto were in 2015.

Earning a sweep in the NBA is far from an easy proposition though and Toronto know how good Washington can be when they put their pieces together. They are also preparing themselves for an early onslaught from a desperate Washington team, but the Raptors are 4-1 against the spread in their last five trips to DC and have the mental belief in their own game that has previously been lacking.

The bench is at full health with Fred VanVleet expected to be available for Game 3 and Toronto will use the fact they are underdogs as inspiration here. That will suggest people still don't fully believe in the Raptors in a wide open Eastern Conference, and I think they use that to rally back after a strong Washington start.

Washington will make some adjustments and have considered bringing in Mike Scott to play 'small ball' after seeing the impact he made in Game 2. That could help in some regards, but might mean Toronto dominate the point too and I think the Raptors just match up too well with the Wizards barring the latter finding some huge Defensive improvements.

The Number 8 Seed in the NBA First Round Series have really struggled when facing a Number 1 Seed off back to back straight up and spread wins which is where Toronto stand in the final number. Those 8 Seeds are 10-24 against the spread in that spot.


Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: It will be a surprise to the Milwaukee Bucks that they are 2-0 down in this First Round Series because the raw numbers have almost suggested they have been the better team. They have shot better from the field and the rebounding numbers are almost identical and that is despite playing both games on the road.

The key has been turnovers.

Milwaukee have been terribly loose with the basketball and that has seen the Boston Celtics get out in transition and make them pay. The break down in the Defensive unit is all down to the turnovers the Bucks are giving up which means they are chasing shooters and have been made to pay with Boston making their big shots when they have arrived.

It has been highlighted by the Bucks the last couple of days that they have to clean up their play and that is good news for the fans who will arrive for the first home Play Off Game of the Series.

Highlighting the issues is one thing, but Milwaukee have to come out and make their plays and not try too hard which can lead to more mistakes. If they are able to clean up their game Milwaukee will still feel this Series is retrievable especially if they make Boston work for their points in half court Offense and not just allow them to break free in transition.

Milwaukee also should do well to begin to respect the role players of the Celtics who have stepped up. Eric Bledsoe came off like a spoiled brat when suggesting  he did not know who Terry Rozier is despite Rozier being a huge part of the reason Boston are 2-0 up in this Series and especially more baffling considering Bledsoe has been outplayed by Rozier in one on one situations.

I can't imagine the Bucks are that foolish though and they will come out with some real intensity to set the tone for a much better game. Cleaning up the turnovers should give Milwaukee the chance to not only win this game, but cover the number too.

I do think the Bucks can win and they look in a good spot to take a look at the Half Time Spread trend for those teams who are 2-0 down in the Play Offs. Both games on Thursday failed to hit, but I think Milwaukee are playing better than Portland and San Antonio and this is really on their own heads if they fail to get back into the Series.

A cleaner start is expected from the Bucks when it comes to the turnovers and I will look for them to be leading by a healthy margin by Half Time.


Saturday 21st April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Pick: This NBA First Round Play Off Series has been firmly in the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers and whether they have made or missed their three pointers. In Games 1 and 3 the 76ers have managed to hit 18 three pointers, but they only managed 7 in their Game 2 loss.

Regardless, the 76ers will continue to push the pace and look for their shooters to make the plays when the ball reaches them. It has worked so far with the 76ers taking back home court advantage from the Miami Heat who have struggled to impose themselves in any of the games.

Let's be honest for a moment, Miami don't want to be playing at the pace all three Play Off Games have been played at. Both teams have been pushing the tempo and that is only going to give the 76ers every chance of securing another win and moving to the brink of a place in the Conference Semi Finals.

Joel Embiid's return only helped Philadelphia even more in Game 3 and he looked comfortable back on the court despite talking about the discomfort he has playing the mask. Unfortunately Embiid will have to keep the mask on for the remainder of this Series at the very least, but his performance in Game 3 underlines the difficulties Miami are going to have to slow this opponent down.

You have to expect Miami to make some adjustments to at least make life more difficult for Embiid, but that adjustment may mean 'small ball' basketball with Hassan Whiteside missing out. Whiteside has been an almost non-factor in the Series and this not a game that will suit him if Philadelphia continue to produce the spacing on the court.

The Heat have got some fine shooting from their role players, but ultimately it has been hard to rely on those players for a full 48 minutes. They have tried to go toe-to-toe with the Philadelphia 76ers from the three point arc and had some success doing that, but I do think the 76ers are the all around better team and can really grab a hold of this Series.


Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: Most expected the Portland Trail Blazers to get the better of the New Orleans Pelicans in a close First Round Play Off Series, but this could not have gone any differently. We are only a week into the post-season, but the New Orleans Pelicans are the first team to get the brooms out and look for a sweep of their visiting Trail Blazers.

This could be important for the New Orleans Pelicans who will want to have a few days to rest a team that has really exceeded most expectations. With a likely Conference Semi Final Series with the Golden State Warriors to come, New Orleans will want to make sure Anthony Davis is well rested especially as it looks like the Warriors could be ready for a sweep too.

Davis has been his usual dominating presence for the New Orleans Pelicans, but it is the performance of the back court in Rajon Rondo and particularly Jrue Holiday which would have garnered plenty of attention. Holiday has shown himself to be amongst the most in-form two way players in the NBA and he continues to stamp his authority on this Series.

It has been difficult for the Portland Trail Blazers to get on track and their own back court have struggled badly despite coming in with big reputations. Both CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard have struggled and they saw their team being blown out by as much as 33 points in Game 3 in the second half despite those two players having their best combined effort in the Series.

The blow out means the two teams should be ready to go in Game 4 with the starters not playing as many minutes as they are used to. However it looks like the Portland rotation will be short-handed with injuries taking a toll on a team who look bereft of any confidence.

Teams in this situation do struggle to compete in the First Round of the Play Offs too. When a team drops to 0-3, they have gone 25-45-4 against the spread in Game 4 and that is even tougher for road underdogs of 4 or more points who are 8-24 against the spread.

The Pelicans could potentially be a little more complacent with a big lead, but I think they will want to have a few days off after this Game 4 and they have dominated the Series. New Orleans have covered in each game in the Series and I will back them to cover a big number on their way to the sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers.


Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: James Harden had a really hard day in the office in Game 2, although his issues came on the Offensive side of the court with some describing his Defensive play as good as anything he has produced in his career. Harden is not going to be worrying about his shot which is going to heat up again soon and he really won't worry if he makes two shots from the field and his Houston Rockets are still able to blow out an opponent.

The supporting cast stepped up Offensively and the Houston Rockets were able to strangle the Minnesota Timberwolves Defensively which meant another win for the Number 1 Seed in this First Round Play Off Series.

That win also means Houston have won all six games played against the Timberwolves in the 2017/18 season and it is going to be a real challenge for Minnesota to make the adjustments to try and get back into the Series.

Minnesota's key players have struggled, but they get a chance to return home for Game 3 and play in front of their fans who have been waiting fourteen years for a Play Off Game at home. They should be pumped, but the key for the Timberwolves will be what they can do on the court and not what the fans produce in the stands.

They have to find a way to get Karl-Anthony Towns going if the Timberwolves have serious ambitions of prolonging this Series for long enough to get a trip back to Houston onto the schedule. It has been tough for Towns to feel comfortable and it is difficult for Minnesota to find the balance to challenge the Houston Rockets which suggests Game 3 is going to be another heading for a win for the Number 1 Seed.

Being 2-0 down in the Play Off Series means Minnesota could be in line to be backed on the Half Time spread which is now 2-2 against the spread in the 2018 Play Offs. However the Number 8 Seed has usually struggled to compete against the Number 1 Seed and the Rockets have proven to match up very well with the Timberwolves all season.

At some point I would really expect the Rockets to put it all together and reach their usual levels of shooting which has been missing in the first two games. They have beaten the Timberwolves by at least 9 points in five of their six wins over them this season and I will back Houston to move into a 3-0 lead with a win and a cover on the road.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz Pick: Out of all the NBA Play Off First Round Series that are being played, the one that looked the toughest to call was between the Utah Jazz and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The regular season wins the Thunder earned against Utah all came several months ago and the latter had been much improved down the stretch, although Oklahoma City also looked more comfortable with the 'Big Three' players in their starting line up.

Both of the first two games in the Series have been very competitive but it was Utah who managed to hold themselves together in Game 2 to steal away home court advantage. Game 4 is played on Monday, but first Utah host the Thunder in what has usually been a key Game 3 on Saturday.

There are similarities with the way both the first two games went, even though the two games were split. Both the Thunder and Jazz have a clear number one option Offensively, but it has been the likes of Paul George (Game 1) and Donovan Mitchell (Game 2) who have made the key contributions to help their teams win.

I imagine Game 3 will be similar with the two teams looking to get their complement players going to build some confidence. The two teams are also very competent when it comes to their Defensive performances and it was the Utah Jazz holding Russell Westbrook, George and Carmelo Anthony scoreless from the field in the Fourth Quarter which helped them take Game 2.

Defensive performances are going to be in this Game 3 too and I do think the total points line looks a little too high. None of the regular season games combined for 200 points, while only one of the two Play Off games have managed to reach that number.

It is a risk with the way the Thunder can get off Offensively, but I imagine there will be plenty of tension in a pivotal Game 3 and I will look for the 'under' to come out.


Sunday 22nd April
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Game 3 was a pivotal one for the Milwaukee Bucks as they looked to avoid falling into a 0-3 hole in this First Round Play Off Series. They played with plenty of determination and were able to blow out the Boston Celtics and now the Bucks are searching for a way to get back to 2-2 before the Series heads back to Boston.

The key to Game 3 was always going to be how well the Milwaukee Bucks could look after the ball and they were successful at doing that. Turnovers have killed Milwaukee in their two losses in Boston, but this time it was the Celtics who gave the ball away.

That saw the Bucks take a commanding lead of Game 3 in the First Quarter and they were able to then lead from wire to wire.

Now they will be looking to make sure they come out with similar focus as well as getting the same kind of production off the bench as they received on Friday. One element that has remained consistent is the success Milwaukee have been able to have Offensively and they will feel that will always give them a chance to win games against Boston.

Offensive play has been an issue for the Celtics when not turning the ball over and getting into transition.The half court Offense is when you see how much they miss the likes of Kyrie Irving and Boston struggled from the field in Game 3.

Boston will take some encouragement from the fact that some of their younger players played better the longer Game 3 went on. A first road start in the Play Offs is an eye-opener for any player and it took a bit of time for the Celtics to settle in, although that could mean they are in a better place to try and take a road victory here.

It won’t be easy if Milwaukee are as strong with limiting their turnovers as they were in Game 3. The superior shooting of the Bucks will mean they have every chance to win the game as long as they don’t keep shooting themselves in the foot.

The Celtics do have the slight edge when it comes to collecting the boards, but it won’t be enough to stay with the Bucks if the latter continue shooting as they have been. I am looking for the home team to get back to 2-2 both straight up and against the spread in this First Round Series.


Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: It is a difficult time for the San Antonio Spurs family who will be without Gregg Popovich for Game 4 who is away with his family on compassion leave following the passing of his wife.

Basketball clearly comes a long way second to things like what Popovich is going through, but the fans will come to the Arena on Sunday desperate to see their Spurs avoid a sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors for a second year in a row.

It looks a tall task for the Spurs who have been dominated in all three games played so far as they have struggled for the scoring to stay with the Warriors.

They could be given a boost and a chance to head back to the Oracle Arena if both Kevin Durant and Shaun Livingston miss out in Game 4. Durant would be a huge loss for the Warriors who will want to get a few days rest before the Conference Semi Finals begin, but Head Coach Steve Kerr remains confident that both Durant and Livingston will play Game 4.

Golden State will be looking to pick up from where they have left off in each game in this First Round Series. They have been very good Offensively, but it has been the step up to Play Off level Defense which has helped the Warriors win all three games by wide margins.

You have to expect San Antonio will try something new to change the way the Series is going, but they just don’t look to have the same shooting power as their opponents. Perhaps they can get hot from the field and make this a surprisingly competitive game, but it is hard to go against the Warriors when analysing how the first three games have gone.

The Warriors are now 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in San Antonio.

Covering this kind of number on the road is far from an easy task for any team in the NBA, but I do wonder if San Antonio are spent physically and emotionally. Keep an eye out on the status of Durant and Livingston, but I am expecting both to be in the rotation and the Warriors can get the brooms out for the sweep as they get set to face the New Orleans Pelicans in the Western Conference Semi Final Series.


Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pick: It was difficult to see how the Washington Wizards were going to turn around a First Round Series in which they had struggled in back to back road games at the Toronto Raptors. When the Raptors made a fast start in the First Quarter of Game 3 it looked like it was going to be more of the same, but the Washington Wizards found their shot and were able to move back to 2-1 down in the Series.

Much of the Toronto problems can be traced back to a period in the first half where they gave the ball away too many times and you have to expect them to have worked on keeping better control of the ball in Game 3. Turnovers allowed the Washington Wizards to get into transition and make easy baskets, but the Raptors have to be a little concerned with their Defensive schemes.

Toronto have struggled Defensively throughout the Series but managed to mask those issues with strong Offensive play, but it can be tough to make your shots consistently on the road. The Defensive numbers are not good and have to give Washington plenty of belief they can head back to Canada with the Series alive after leaving in a big hole a few days ago.

There is no disputing the talent Washington have in their rotation, but they would have been boosted by the strong bench play. That was an area that many thought Toronto would dominate throughout this Series, so managing to win the bench battle will have given the Number 8 Seed a huge shot in the arm.

Playing at home continues to be a comfort for the Wizards and you can add the Toronto road problems against Play Off level teams to suggest Washington can win this Game 4. However it does feel more has to go right for them in terms of winning the bench battle, turnovers and making sure the shooters stay hot to do that which makes it hard to believe in them.

What is easier to believe is this Series will continue to push the pace and that means plenty of shots and another high-scoring game is on the cards. All three Play Off games have soared through to 220 points or more total combined and that has also seen the total points line hit a high for Game 4.

It may still not be quite high enough with the shooting these two teams have been able to produce and neither Defensive unit looks to have stepped up. It could be another battle of the three pointers with the turnovers proving to be the key factor in determining a winner, but I will back the total points to be surpassed.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: This is an unfamiliar situation for LeBron James with his team trailing in the NBA Play Offs First Round 2-1 to the Indiana Pacers having blown a big lead in a Game 3 loss on the road. Game 4 takes place in Indiana on Sunday and all the questions that need to be answered are coming from the Cleveland side of the court.

Even when the Cavaliers decided to make a host of trade moves ahead of the trade deadline in February the feeling was that the team would gel together and play their best basketball of the season once we got to the Play Offs.

It has been anything but the case.

LeBron James is doing his best as he is performing up to the level associated with the best player in the world and the only reason the Cavaliers have been close to winning the last two games is down to the impact James has had. He has not been supported well enough by his experienced team-mates Kevin Love, JR Smith or Kyle Korver, while some of the younger players traded for are having difficult moments.

And this is all happening against an Indiana team who are comfortable with one another and who trust each other to make the critical plays when they are needed. That has seen the Pacers have different players making huge plays down the stretch in games and there is likely to be a real disappointment that they are not 3-0 up and about to clinch a sweep.

They haven't allowed the disappointment of not taking Game 2 to linger though as Indiana rallied from a big deficit to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3. Indiana have made shots when they have needed and have been able to accept what LeBron James is going to do from the field but made sure they have not allowed anyone else to get into a hot streak from the field.

The slow tempo has made this one of the low-scoring First Round Play Off Series this season and it would be a surprise to see either suddenly get out and push the basketball. However, there have only been a day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4 and that could potentially lead to fatigue and tiredness which could work against the Defenders chasing players off the three point line.

The 'under' has come in all three previous games, but that has meant the layers have shrunk the total by 8 points from Game 1 to Game 4. That may have gone too much the other way and I will look for these teams to combine for more than the total points line set.

Monday 23rd April

I have to admit I was highly frustrated with the Sunday NBA Play Offs after seeing the Milwaukee Bucks blow a huge lead from the middle of the Third Quarter and then seeing 87% Free Throw shooter Jeff Green miss a Free Throw to ensure the Indiana-Cleveland Game 4 finished 'under' the mark.

That is really irritating and made a big hole for the NBA Play Off Picks in these First Round Series.

Monday is the final Game 4's to be played and I will have Picks from both below, but I will create a new thread on Tuesday which will cover the rest of the First Round with the games due to be played through to the end of the week.

Once the Conference Semi Finals begin, I will have a new thread for that which will cover the first four games of all the Series before again splitting the Picks with a thread that will cover the remaining games of the Series.

Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: Mike D'Antoni has warned that he would not be resting his Houston Rockets starters down the stretch in the regular season as he was worried they would lose some rhythm when it came to the Play Offs. Even though that decision was made, the Houston Rockets have not looked anything like the team that won the most games in the regular season even though they play Game 4 with a 2-1 lead in the Series.

That lead was cut in half by the Minnesota Timberwolves who will be looking to hold serve at home for the second time in three days. It was a huge performance from the Timberwolves who finally got Karl-Anthony Towns going and found huge support from the likes of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler who have had plenty of big time Play Off experience during their time with the Chicago Bulls.

Minnesota actually matched their season high in three pointers hit and once again saw James Harden struggle for the Rockets which will offer them encouragement in front of their raucous home fans.

Any time the Timberwolves can match the three point output of the Houston Rockets will make them believe they can win that game and they will be looking to pick up from where they left off on Saturday. There is still more room for Towns to have a bigger impact in this Game 4 and confidence won't be in short supply for the home team.

And there are some real questions for the Houston Rockets to answer.

Finishing with the best regular season record will mean nothing to the Rockets fans if they are surprised in this First Round Play Off Series and they have to show they haven't spent their energy to finish with the best record. Harden's struggles will be a real concern for the Houston Rockets organisation especially as the whole Offensive set is catered around his strengths.

The Rockets have yet to score more than 105 points in any of their three Play Off games which is a surprise considering they managed at least 116 in each of their four regular season games against Minnesota. You have to expect Minnesota will come out very intense in front of their home fans again and it is up to the Number 1 Seed to show they are able to handle the pressure of a road Play Off Game.

Houston can spark themselves by returning to the kind of Defensive effort that shut down the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first couple of games at home in this First Round Series.

I do think they are going to find a way to get back on the horse and I am looking for a much better effort from the road team all around in this one. Number 8 Seeds have found it tough against the Number 1 Seed throughout Play Off history in the NBA and I think Houston will be able refocus and get back to their usual standards of play.

The Rockets have been strong off a loss and I will look for them to show that in the Play Offs.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder put their version of the Big Three together in a hope to move into a position to challenge for the NBA Championship. However the Thunder have seen Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George struggle in the Fourth Quarter in Game 2 and Game 3 and that has seen them drop into a 2-1 deficit to the Utah Jazz.

This has already been a season in which Utah have overachieved after losing Gordon Hayward in the off-season at the end of the 2016/17 season. With a rookie leading the team, most would have thought a low Play Off Seed or missing out altogether in a transitional season was the most likely outcome of the 2018 season.

Donovan Mitchell has quickly adjusted to the NBA though and he has shown some ice cold skills in the Play Offs to ensure Utah have ridden out some tough moments on their way to a 2-1 lead over the Thunder.

Mitchell may get the headlines, but it was Ricky Rubio's triple double which helped the Jazz just pull away from the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. Rubio's performances have improved in each of the first three game in this Series and that has not gone unnoticed by the Thunder and Russell Westbrook who has promised to shut down Rubio's influence in Game 4.

Maybe Westbrook is simply trying to light a fire under his own team, but that is also going to be comments that Utah will likely use. The fans certainly will remind Westbrook of them if he is struggling, but Oklahoma City have to feel they can get back into the Series if they can just hold themselves together in the Fourth Quarter.

Westbrook, Anthony and George have plenty of post-season experience so they won't be panicking just yet, but they have to match the energy Utah have shown in the clutch moments. The Thunder have the scoring power to win this Game 4, but they have to go back to basics when it comes to the way they play Defensively so far in the Series.

One way is to show more energy around the glass after seeing Utah dominate the last two games when it comes to rebounding. The Thunder are capable of better all around and this feels like it could be another close game in a Series of close games.

MY PICKS: 14/04 San Antonio Spurs + 8 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

14/04 Washington Wizards + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

14/04 Miami Heat + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

14/04 New Orleans Pelicans + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/04 Milwaukee Bucks + 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/04 Indiana Pacers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/04 Oklahoma City Thunder-Utah Jazz Under 206.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
15/04 Houston Rockets-Minnesota Timberwolves Over 216.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/04 Golden State Warriors - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
17/04 Washington Wizards + 7 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
17/04 Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks Over 197.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
17/04 Portland Trail Blazers - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/04 Indiana Pacers + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/04 Utah Jazz + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
18/04 Houston Rockets-Minnesota Timberwolves Over 214.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/04 Portland Trail Blazers + 1.5 Points Half Time Spread @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/04 San Antonio Spurs + 0.5 Points Half Time Spread @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Indiana Pacers - 1 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Toronto Raptors + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
20/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points Half Time Spread @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
21/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
21/04 New Orleans Pelicans - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
21/04 Houston Rockets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
21/04 Utah Jazz-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 207 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
22/04 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/04 Washington Wizards-Toronto Raptors Over 218 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/04 Indiana Pacers-Cleveland Cavaliers Over 204.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
23/04 Houston Rockets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
23/04 Oklahoma City Thunder + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 11-18-1, - 7.99 Units (30 Units Staked, - 26.63% Yield)

Season 2018: 45-36, + 7.16 Units (79 Units Staked, + 9.06% Yield)