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Wednesday 25 April 2018

Tennis Picks 2018 (April 25th)

There are four tournaments which are being played this week but I couldn't find any Tennis Picks from the first two days of the events in Barcelona, Budapest, Istanbul and Stuttgart.

That may be a surprise to read, but this season continues to move in a positive direction with another winning week put together in Monte Carlo last week. With that in mind I am sticking to the research and putting the numbers together like I have been over the last couple of months and so far it is working out as well as I could have hoped.

To be fair only a couple of matches came close to being picked and I won't lie here but instead admit that none of those would have been winners. I have to be positive that they didn't hit the threshold I am looking for which have produced good results, but hopefully it is just an indication that those were not good enough Picks and not highlighting a poor turn of results about to come out.


On Wednesday I do have five Tennis Picks which cover the ATP events in Barcelona and Budapest and the big WTA event in Stuttgart.

There are some big names out there this week with the majority of them getting underway on Wednesday having received byes or delayed First Round matches through the first couple of days.

They are going to be played across the day so let's hope for another strong week to add to those being experienced in the last couple of months as the clay court season goes on.


Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: Over the last couple of years Aljaz Bedene has reserved his best tennis for the clay courts and even the loss to Rafael Nadal last week in Monte Carlo won't have knocked too much confidence.

Bedene has to feel he can produce some really good weeks on the Tour during this part of the season as long as he can avoid being given an early test against Nadal who continues to look head and shoulders above his competition on this surface.

The field in Budapest is certainly one in which Bedene should feel comfortable and his numbers on the clay courts are very strong. On Wednesday he meets Italian Qualifier Matteo Berrettini who is making his biggest impact on the Tour at this level.

Bedene's record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay courts has improved to 19-0 over the last fifteen months, and both the serving and returning numbers have been impressive.

He will be challenged by Berrettini who is very comfortable on the clay and built confidence and momentum with his run in Budapest. The serve can be an important weapon for Berrettini, but I think Bedene will challenge him on the return in ways the Italian will not have been used to.

His own return could have problems getting to grips with the Bedene serve and I think the higher Ranked player wins with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: There are plenty of matches scheduled in Barcelona on Wednesday when the entire remaining Second Round is completed.

However only one takes my fancy and it has all the makings of a tough one between Karen Khachanov and Leonardo Mayer.

Both players are very well adapted to the clay courts and I think both will believe this is a winnable match for them on this surface. The serve is a huge weapon for both Khachanov and Mayer and I do think there will be plenty of holds of serve throughout the Second Round match.

There isn't a lot between these players and the layers are about right to have it close to a pick 'em contest, but I think the young Russian may be an improving player when it comes to the return of serve. That could be the key element to the outcome of this match with the expectation that Khachanov will earn the majority of the break point chances where those should come at a premium.

Mayer is a tough out on the clay courts and he has shown tremendous fight in his losses on the surface in 2018. However I think it will be Khachanov who makes the big plays when they matter the most and I will look for him to win in either two or three sets which will still give him every chance of covering this number.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 games v Veronika Kudermetova: This is a battle between a veteran of the WTA Tour and a youngster looking to make a name for herself, but I think that is going to be a big test for Veronika Kudermetova to do that.

For starters she has simply not been used to playing opponents who are in the top 100 of the World Rankings let alone one who is towards the upper echelon of the Tour.

Suarez Navarro is even better when it comes to playing on the clay courts and she has reached the Quarter Final in the usually tough field of Stuttgart four years in a row. The serve can be very vulnerable on any surface and especially on the clay courts which does reduce some of the enthusiasm in backing the Spaniard, but she has dominated those players she has played from outside the top 100 of the World Rankings on this surface.

The younger player will have nothing to lose and it may take Suarez Navarro a bit of time to work out her game which gives Kudermetova a chance to be competitive in the first set.

However I fully expect Suarez Navarro to get to grips with things and her consistency from the back of the court should be enough to help her hold a couple more times than Kudermetova and eventually cover this big number.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: It may be something of a surprise to note the relatively poor results Angelique Kerber has had on the clay courts over the last thirteen months. You would expect her defensive ability to be a strength on the slower surfaces, but her serve becomes even more vulnerable and I think she is in for a tough afternoon on Wednesday.

Kerber faces Petra Kvitova in a match which feels completely out of place as a First Round match in any tournament. That underlines the depth of the WTA Stuttgart field and Kerber also has to recover mentally from being destroyed by Kvitova when they met in Fed Cup action over the last weekend.

That match actually took place in the same place the Stuttgart tournament is played and Kvitova was a comfortable winner while Kerber was also beaten by Karoline Pliskova. Kvitova's win over Julia Goerges was another key result in the Fed Cup Semi Final as the Czech Republic moved past Germany away from home and I think Kvitova can double down on her win over Kerber.

Her serve is much more likely to bring up cheaper points than Kerber's, even on the clay courts, and I think that is a key difference between the players.

Kvitova's confidence can't be understated here either and I am looking for the Czech player to record another impressive win over Kerber.


Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Magdalena Rybarikova: I would expect Simona Halep to be amongst the favourites to win the French Open at the beginning of June, although she is going to have to cope with the pressure that comes with that expectation.

The clay courts are where Halep has tended to play her very best tennis, although still effective on all surfaces, and I would expect her to be too good for Magdalena Rybarikova who has not had a lot of competitive clay court tennis in recent years.

Injury have played a part in that, but I also think Rybarikova's game is suited to the quicker surfaces out on the Tour. She does have a solid looking win over Daria Kasatkina in the First Round which has to provide a real boost in confidence, but Rybarikova is going to be challenged by the exceptional returning Halep can produce on the clay courts.

This is a big spread when you think the indoor clay court in Stuttgart does have a different feel to the majority of clay court tennis the players will be used to playing. However I think Halep's returning numbers on the surface give her every chance to beat Rybarikova with a big enough margin to cover.

Rybarikova may feel she can cause some problems for Halep with her own return, but eventually I would think the Romanian can put a run of games together which helps her pull away for the win in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 24.68 Units (488 Units Staked, + 5.08% Yield)

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