Midweek Football Picks 2018 (April 24-26)

It was a great weekend to be a Manchester United fan after seeing the side recover from a goal down to beat Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup Semi Final.

A 2nd place Premier League finish and a Cup success would constitute a better than average season, although Chelsea will be anything but a walkover in the Final on 19th May.

That's for another day and the focus this midweek for general Football fans will be on the four European Semi Final First Legs to be played from Tuesday through to Thursday. All have their own intrigue and it is a big week for the teams involved as they can smell European success now they have reached the last four of the Champions League/Europa League.


Liverpool v Roma Pick: This may be the Semi Final that all Liverpool fans would have been hoping for when the draw was made a couple of weeks ago, but no one at the club will be overlooking a Roma team who have overachieved to get to this stage of the competition.

The 3-0 win over Barcelona in the Quarter Final Second Leg to overturn a 4-1 First Leg defeat will live long in the memory for Roma fans, but they won't want the journey to end.

It is going to be a pivotal opening half hour for Roma in an intense Anfield atmosphere which saw Manchester City crumble in the Quarter Final First Leg. Roma have to make sure they don't give too much away if they are going to have a chance to keep the Second Leg alive.

Unfortunately Roma have not travelled well in the Champions League this season and have conceded at least twice in away games at Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and Barcelona. They are facing a Liverpool team who can score plenty of goals at home and Roma were beaten in the last 3 away games in the Champions League.

However they have scored in all but one away game and came back from 2-0 down at Chelsea to earn a 3-3 draw. Away goals could be critical for Roma and they will be going up against a Liverpool defence which has kept 4 straight home clean sheets in the Champions League.

My lean is that Roma will struggle in Liverpool like they have in recent away Champions League games. They could play a part by getting on the scoreboard though and Roma can be in a position where the Second Leg is the pivotal one in this Semi Final tie.

Realistically though I think Liverpool will win a high-scoring First Leg with Roma's defensive shape not as strong away from home in this competition. Backing the home team to win a game featuring three or more goals at odds against looks a decent price.


Bayern Munich v Real Madrid Pick: Both Champions League Semi Final ties have their intrigue, but the one that will capture the imagination of most fans comes between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.

It says something about how much Bayern Munich did not want to play Real Madrid that the likes of Arturo Vidal were seen watching the final minutes from Madrid in the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg rather than his team's own Second Leg against Sevilla.

The disgust at what was initially perceived a controversial decision by Michael Oliver to hand Real Madrid a final minute penalty might have been down to the reminder of the injustice Bayern Munich felt last season. They missed a penalty at half time in the First Leg to move 2-0 ahead before losing 1-2 at home and in the Second Leg a controversial Arturo Vidal sending off meant Bayern Munich were overwhelmed in Extra Time after winning 1-2 in normal time in the Bernebeu.

It will be important for Bayern Munich to use that energy in the right way on Wednesday with the fans likely to be intense and the players fully reminded of how the Quarter Final played out last season. There is plenty of experience to think Bayern Munich will handle the occasion in a positive manner, but the dangers Real Madrid pose will also be clear to all.

Real Madrid are 'all in' when it comes to the Champions League and wins in Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus underlines the danger they pose to Bayern Munich. Cristiano Ronaldo continues to produce goals in big games and Bayern Munich have lost their last couple of home games against Real Madrid which will be on the minds of everyone associated with the club.

I can't see a low-scoring game here and neither can the layers.

Picking a winner is more difficult but I am going to lean towards Bayern Munich to find a way to get into a lead ahead of the Second Leg. They weren't very good against Sevilla, but I think that was a game they were very comfortable in and I think Bayern Munich will be looking to right the perceived wrongs from last season.

Real Madrid have enough quality to play their part in the First Leg too, but I will back Bayern Munich to earn the lead with the goals they have been scoring. They likely need two goals, at least, to win and I will back them to win a game featuring three or more goals at a big price.


Arsenal v Atletico Madrid Pick: Arsene Wenger is hoping his decision to announce his departure from Arsenal as manager at the end of the season will unify the fan base for one strong push to end the campaign.

Winning the Europa League will give Arsenal a chance to return to the Champions League, but this was the Semi Final opponent they were hoping to avoid.

However it has to be said that Atletico Madrid have not been in the best recent form, especially away from home where they have lost 4 of their last 6 in all competitions. The performance in the 1-0 defeat in Lisbon to Sporting was not good enough from Atletico Madrid and will give Arsenal hope they are perhaps playing them at the right time.

The First Leg at the Emirates Stadium is huge for Arsenal who simply have not turned up on their travels far too often throughout the 2017/18 season. They have been in fine form here in recent weeks with their last 6 all won while scoring at least three times in each.

The concern has to be the continued defensive lapses which have seen the likes of Milan, CSKA Moscow score away goals in the Europa League and Southampton and West Ham United score goals in losses here in the Premier League. Atletico Madrid have more than enough attacking talent to score here too and I think they will get an away goal having scored at Leicester City and Chelsea over the last thirteen months in European away games.

However I also think Arsenal have played with enough confidence at home to score too and I will simply look for both teams to score here.


Marseille v Salzburg Pick: These teams met in two low-scoring games in the Europa League Group Stage earlier this season, but there is a lot more on the line when Marseille and Salzburg meet in the Semi Final tie over the next eight days.

Both teams have shown considerable heart and determination to come through the Knock Out Rounds already and that should mean there is plenty of confidence on display from the players on the field.

Despite the goalless draw between these teams in the Group Stage, I do have to lean towards Marseille having a lead from the First Leg. They have won 7 of their 8 home Europa League games and Marseille have scored 10 goals in their last couple of games here

Marseille have also scored at least three times in their last 3 home Europa League games and they are facing a Salzburg team who do have a tendency to concede plenty of goals on their travels.

I do expect the home team to score at least twice in this one, but Marseille will have to be aware of the threat Salzburg pose on the counter attack. Salzburg have scored twice in Real Sociedad, Borussia Dortmund and Lazio in the Knock Out Rounds and they certainly will feel they can score here.

Both teams should create the chances to get onto the scoreboard, but I will have a small interest in Marseille winning a game in which both teams have their successes.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win @ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal-Atletico Madrid Both Teams to Score @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marseille Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)