Tennis Picks 2018 (April 11th)

The opening Tennis Pick of the week came back as a winner on Monday evening but nothing really appealed in strong enough fashion on Tuesday.

I am focusing on the ATP Tour so far this week and the two events in Marrakech and Houston being played on the clay courts. A part of the reason is the heavy rain in Bogota and Lugano where the two WTA events are being played which means there are going to be a number of players having to do double duty to get the tournaments back on track.

Later in the week that may have changed and there is some rain forecasted in both Marrakech and Houston, but I would expect the matches to get through the schedule as expected on Wednesday.

The reason I don't like backing players in matches where they have to play twice in a single day is that there is a chance that the focus is lost and maybe they are looking ahead to other tournaments being played. It's different in Grand Slam events or the bigger tournaments that are played, but these are not tournaments with huge prize money and Ranking points to keep the motivation as high as it could be, while the fields in Bogota and Lugano are not the most impressive as far as I am concerned either.

By the time we get to the Quarter Final matches the quality should also improved, although it may be difficult to find angles then too.


I am beginning this thread with a couple of Picks from the ATP Marrakech tournament, and I will add any selections from Houston once the order of play for Wednesday is confirmed.


Andreas Seppi - 1.5 games v Radu Albot: This First Round match has been pushed back to Wednesday to account for the players being involved in Davis Cup action this past weekend.

Andreas Seppi did lose the opening Rubber for Italy against France, but he should be well rested since then and I do think he can get the better of Radu Albot on the clay courts.

The veteran is comfortable on the clay courts, but Seppi's numbers have not been the most impressive but he showed plenty of heart and character in his battle with Lucas Pouille in the Davis Cup. Andreas Seppi has also managed to keep his World Ranking in a decent spot thanks to his performances against those outside the top 50 and his numbers are much stronger when faces those players.

That is what he will be facing when Seppi takes on Albot in this First Round match and it does have to be said that the latter has decent but not spectacular numbers on the clay. The serve has worked well for Albot but he has not returned as effectively as he would have liked and I think that is going to be a key difference between these players.

Seppi has beaten Albot on the hard courts and grass courts previously and I think he can add a clay court win over him here. It does potentially need three sets to separate these players, but I think Seppi will do enough to win the match and he should be able to cover this number even in a competitive win.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 games v Alexey Vatutin: In the last couple of years Albert Ramos-Vinolas has not only picked up his form on the clay courts but he has been able to go deep into some of the biggest events played on the surface.

2018 has not started as effectively as he would have liked when taking in the Golden Swing in South America in February, but Ramos-Vinolas still remains a solid opponent on this surface.

The main reason his results have not been better than they have been is down to the poorer return numbers as he has not taken the chances to break serve. That number is significantly down on the last couple of years on the Tour which has to be a concern, but I also think it is a matter of time before Ramos-Vinolas starts converting a higher percentage of break points which should see his overall break number improve significantly too.

Ramos-Vinolas dominated an overmatched Wild Card opponent in the First Round, but this time he faces Alexey Vatutin who has come through the Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw. Vatutin beat Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round to keep his roll going but he hasn't played too many players of that quality in his career.

In fact it was only the fifth time he had played a top 100 World Ranked opponent and Vatutin snapped his run of four losses to those opponents. Vatutin had been dominated by those top 100 opponents prior to the win and he is facing someone who is very comfortable on the clay courts in this one.

As long as Ramos-Vinolas doesn't take too long getting to grips with what is coming from the other side of the net I would expect him to win and cover this number of games on the clay courts.


Nicolas Kicker - 1.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: This match has only just got to the level I want to be able to back one of the players involved in the Second Round matches scheduled for Wednesday at the ATP event in Houston.

The layers are anticipating a close match and I have little doubt that Nicolas Kicker and Tennys Sandgren are going to provide a competitive match like when they met on the clay courts in 2017. On that occasion it was Sandgren who won in a three setter, but I think Kicker can get the better of the American in this meeting.

His numbers have been a little stronger on the clay courts although the big question is whether he can serve well enough against an opponent who has not returned the most effectively, but whose own serve will be tough to recover.

That was the only downside to Kicker's comfortable win over Donald Young in the First Round, although his own return was more effective than it has been for much of the season. There is room for improvement for Kicker who has not taken the chances as well as he usually does to break serve and that is likely going to lead to another close match.

Ultimately I think Kicker is in slightly better form than Sandgren who is still to produce a run anything like the one he had at the Australian Open. The American did play well on the clay courts last season which makes him dangerous, but I think Kicker will edge him out here and cover this number of games.

MY PICKS: Andreas Seppi - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Nicolas Kicker - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.66 Units (2 Units Staked, + 83% Yield)