Wednesday proved to be a really frustrating day for the Tennis Picks at the Monte Carlo Masters with both Fabio Fognini and Fernando Verdasco failing to return to the winner's enclosure.
Fognini never looked like he was going to be a winner, but Verdasco should have won the second set against Marin Cilic which would have given him every chance to cover if he was not able to win the match.
Hopefully I am going to have a little more luck with the Picks the rest of the week after a poor first three days.
David Goffin v Roberto Bautista Agut: The head to head does read 3-1 in favour of Roberto Bautista Agut, but I think David Goffin may have the better clay court pedigree of the two players. The one concern in backing the Belgian is that he has not had a lot of tennis over the last couple of months since a freak eye injury in his match with Grigor Dimitrov in Rotterdam, but he did have a solid win in the Second Round.
His opponent had also been struggling for form since winning the title in Dubai and Roberto Bautista Agut has won back to back matches for the first time since them this week in Monte Carlo.
The layers are finding it difficult to separate the two players, but I am not convinced Goffin should be the small underdog in what is close to a pick 'em match.
Some of the Goffin numbers on the clay courts have been very impressive in the last couple of years during his move into the top 20 of the World Rankings and he may have an edge over Bautista Agut. While the Spaniard is a solid competitor on the surface, the majority of his wins have come against players Ranked outside the top 20 and his numbers are significantly weaker when he has played the top players on this surface.
There could be a number of breaks of serve during the course of this match and one or two key points could make all the difference in the final outcome of the Third Round encounter. Goffin's holding serve numbers have been the slightly superior to Bautista Agut and he is an effective returner who can win this match.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: In the last couple of years Grigor Dimitrov's numbers on the clay courts have been very disappointing considering his standing on the ATP Tour. The next seven weeks could be a tough stretch for Dimitrov, but he did play well to recover in the Second Round after falling a set behind although now the challenges get that much tougher.
First up is Philipp Kohlschreiber who looks like he is a declining force on the Tour.
The German has had two solid wins this week which are going to give him plenty of confidence, but Kohlschreiber has perhaps taken advantage of a kind draw. You can't ignore the fact that Kohlschreiber can still be very effective at looking after his own serve, but his return numbers have shown a steady decline in each of the last four years and that has to be a concern for the veteran.
His numbers have also taken a big hit when facing those players Ranked in the top 20 and Kohlschreiber may find Dimitrov getting the better of him again on a clay court like he did last season in Madrid.
Dimitrov's own return numbers on the clay courts have not been as strong as he would like, but I do think he can get the better of Kohlschreiber in a competitive two sets.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: Two big servers will meet in the Third Round at the Monte Carlo Masters and you do have to think that both Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic will be able to hold onto serve for much of this match.
Chances will be limited, but I would suggest Raonic is not quite as comfortable as Cilic on the clay courts and that could see the latter come away with a win and a cover of this number of games.
Raonic has to be respected with the wins he has put together since the Indian Wells Masters, but his numbers on the clay courts against the best players on the Tour have not been the best. While the serve continues to be a big weapon for him, his return numbers have been poor to say the least and I am not sure Raonic is going to get a lot of change out of the Cilic serve if the Croatian is anywhere near his best.
Another key difference is the way the two players have managed to return on this surface and Cilic is someone who is able to generate plenty of success on the return. He has really shown that off in the last couple of years on the clay courts, but the Raonic serve is a tough one to get the better of with any consistency.
I do think Cilic will find a couple of breaks in the match though and I believe that will be enough for him to win this match and cover the mark. It won't be easy, but Cilic did record a win over Raonic in the Final in Istanbul on the clay last season and can frank that with a victory over him in Monte Carlo on Thursday.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The two wins Kei Nishikori has produced this week have been impressive and he continues to show that he is one of the better clay court players out there.
The lack of competitive tennis over the last twelve months saw Nishikori make a slow start back on the Tour, but I think the next couple of months could be huge for him. Wins over Tomas Berdych and Daniil Medvedev have seen Nishikori produce some strong numbers and his returning ability on the clay courts is one of the keys to his success on the surface.
Andreas Seppi is the Third Round opponent having battled through two tough matches in the main draw after a more comfortable progress through a couple of Qualifiers. Seppi has needed three sets to win both matches in the main draw, but he has perhaps rode his luck a little bit to get to this stage, particularly in his First Round win over Kyle Edmund.
The return of serve is an important part of the Italian's game too and he will feel he can put some pressure on Nishikori who does not possess the biggest serve on the Tour. However Nishikori has looked after that side of his game better than Seppi even if the latter's numbers are a little better thanks to the strong performance when he is facing break points.
It has to be said he is saving those break points at an unsustainable level and I think Nishikori can be a little more effective than Edmund and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez were when the chances came their way.
Matches between these two players have tended to be very compettiive, but they haven't played for some time and Nishikori is much improved since then. I also think veteran Seppi has declined since their previous matches and Nishikori can record another good win on Thursday.
MY PICKS: David Goffin @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 2-4, - 4.96 Units (12 Units Staked, - 41.33% Yield)
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