Midweek Football Picks 2018 (April 3-5)

It is still a little sore looking at the Champions League Quarter Final line up and wondering how Manchester United are not a part of the last eight in the competition this season.

Hopefully the football on the pitch will help me move on with some quality looking fixtures to come on Tuesday and Wednesday before some good looking ties in the Europa League Quarter Final with those four ties set to play their First Legs on Thursday.

At this moment you would have to say that there looks to be a couple of clear winners in both the Champions League and Europa League Quarter Finals and then a couple of ties which look pretty finely balanced.

We will have a different view by Friday morning once the First Leg matches are in the books.


Juventus v Real Madrid Pick: This looks to be a quality Champions League tie in the making and I am not surprised that the layers are finding it difficult to separate Juventus and Real Madrid in the First Leg.

Both teams will have their ambitions from the First Leg, but you have to think Juventus must believe they are going to need a lead to take to the Spanish capital next week.

That should perhaps enable a very good game of football to develop with the way these two teams end up matching one another.

I would have to expect Juventus will play an attacking brand and try and force the lead, but that may also leave them a little open for the counter attack. Real Madrid showed in Paris Saint-Germain they still pose a real threat going forward, but they are a team that can be vulnerable defensively and it should mean Juventus have their own successes going forward.

Defensively Juventus have not looked as strong as previous years though and I think that is where Real Madrid will also play their part in an exciting fixture.

The last 10 Real Madrid away Champions League games have featured three or more goals shared out, while 4 of the last 6 Juventus home Champions League ties have done the same. The 2-1 scoreline from 2015 when these teams last played here is a real consideration for the outcome of this tie, and the last 3 times Juventus have hosted Real Madrid there have been at least three goals scored each time.

At odds against I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing goals in this one.

With the two teams approach to the fixture, I think Real Madrid and Juventus will combine for three or more goals in this one and I will back that to be the outcome of this one at odds against.


Sevilla v Bayern Munich Pick: The Champions League Quarter Final matches look to be decent ties, but there are a couple of them where there looks to be a clear winner.

One of those is Bayern Munich in their Quarter Final against Sevilla and I don't believe the German Champions will make the same mistakes Manchester United did in both Legs of their Last 16 tie against Sevilla.

The First Leg is still intriguing with Sevilla showing toughness at home and they will have been encouraged with the way they played for large parts of the 2-2 draw with Barcelona on Saturday. They led 2-0 that day and will believe they can trouble Bayern Munich, although I do worry about a team who have conceded as many home goals as Sevilla have of late.

Sevilla have also drawn 3 of their 5 home Champions League ties this season and were 0-3 down to Liverpool in one of those which again would concern me if I was a fan of the Spanish club.

Bayern Munich are also playing as well as any team remaining in the competition and they have been very strong on their travels in the Champions League. The side have won 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League including the last 3 in a row and they have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks which will encourage them to come to Sevilla and express themselves.

They have scored at least twice in each of their 5 away wins in the Champions League over the last twelve months including a 1-2 win at Real Madrid before going down in extra time last season. With the attacking options Bayern Munich have at their disposal, I do expect they will break down this Sevilla team who have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 home games which is not a good look.

The away side are short enough in the prices, but they are just under odds against to win a game which features two or more goals and I do think Bayern Munich could hit that number themselves. They likely need to score at least twice to win here, but I do think Bayern Munich can do that and I will back them to secure a First Leg lead which sets them up for passage through to the Semi Final.


Barcelona v Roma Pick: It feels like it would be a pretty big surprise if Barcelona are not able to beat Roma in the Champions League Quarter Final over the next seven days even if I remain a little unconvinced about how strong this current Barcelona side are.

This has been a season in which Roma have overachieved in the Champions League but they have to be respected for some of the performances they have produced.

The stand out performances came against Chelsea in the Group Stage, but Barcelona may be a tougher prospect for a group of players who will remember the 6-1 defeat here in the Group Stage two seasons ago.

Roma have also been beaten at Atletico Madrid this season and they have been a poor travelling team in the Champions League. Now they have to face a Barcelona team who have won plenty of games at home both domestically and in the Champions League and who will have the majority of the ball in the First Leg as they look to build a lead to take to the Italian capital next week.

I do think Barcelona will come away with a lead and I think the control of the ball will restrict the chances Roma are able to create.

While I am not convinced Barcelona are as strong defensively as other teams in Europe, they have been good enough at home to earn plenty of clean sheets. Barcelona have only conceded 1 goal in 4 Champions League games here this season, while they have conceded just 2 goals in 12 at home in all competitions.

Barcelona may be able to play well enough to contain Roma in this First Leg too having beaten Italian Champions Juventus 3-0 in the Group Stage. Their visitors have already failed to score once in a defeat in Spain this season and I am going to back Barcelona to win this one with a clean sheet at odds against.


Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: All eyes in England will be on this Champions League Quarter Final as the two representatives remaining in the competition from the Premier League play one another.

Liverpool and Manchester City have already produced two high-scoring games in the Premier League and there is every chance the Champions League tie over the next seven days will also feature plenty of goals.

Both Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola will recognise how well the other's team have played when it comes to the attacking side of the game and both have to feel the biggest weakness of Liverpool and Manchester City are both in defensive areas.

I would be surprised if those vulnerabilities are not attacked in both Legs of this Champions League Quarter Final and I don't think either manager can play for a draw with the way they have defended at times. Both Liverpool and Manchester City have some tremendous attacking options which should be able to create chances against their defensive opponents and I am expecting to see at least four goals here.

Games between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield have produced plenty of goals in recent seasons including the 4-3 win for Liverpool back in January. That result has to give the home team confidence even though they are the home underdog and I think Liverpool have to be respected in this one.

Both managers will still approach this Quarter Final First Leg with the same philosophy that has worked well for them in the Premier League this season and so anything other than goals would be a real surprise. I expect to see plenty of attacking threat throughout this First Leg and I don't think either team will settle for a narrow win if they have got some momentum behind them.

With attack likely to be an important part of the game for both teams throughout this one, I will look for this to be the third game in the 2017/18 season between Liverpool and Manchester City that has at least four goals shared out.


Arsenal v CSKA Moscow Pick: This is arguably the best of the remaining seven teams that Arsenal could have faced in the Europa League Quarter Final, but anyone taking CSKA Moscow for granted could be in for a big surprise.

While Russian teams have not been the best of travellers in recent seasons, CSKA Moscow have shown some toughness this season and they have won 4 of 7 away European games. That includes wins at Benfica and Basel in the Champions League Group, but the most impressive victory came at Lyon in the Last 16 of the Europa League when CSKA Moscow overturned a 0-1 home defeat from the First Leg.

They also led at Old Trafford before losing 2-1 to Manchester United back in December and CSKA Moscow have to be respected against an Arsenal team that are still some way short of being in top gear.

It may be a positive for Arsenal fans that despite being a little below their best that their team have won 4 in a row in all competitions. They have won their last 3 at the Emirates Stadium while scoring three times each time against Watford, AC Milan and Stoke City although the absence of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is a real loss for the side.

Arsene Wenger has managed to rest some key players now and the return of Alexandre Lacazette is a bonus for his team and I do think Arsenal will have enough to win this one.

However I think CSKA Moscow have shown they can cause problems for teams with the pace they have and I think the Russian side will give themselves every chance of earning their place in the Semi Final. That will begin by at least earning an away goal at the Emirates Stadium and backing both teams to score at odds against looks a big price when you consider how well CSKA Moscow have been playing themselves.

Since CSKA Moscow entered the Champions League Group Stage, 4 of their 5 away European ties have ended with both teams scoring. Arsenal have conceded in 3 of their 5 home Europa League ties and both teams scoring at odds against looks the call in this one.


Atletico Madrid v Sporting Lisbon Pick: Just because a team looks to be the clear favourite in any competition they enter, there is still some hard work to do to make sure all the goals are achieved and that is true for Atletico Madrid who are five matches away from winning the Europa League.

A manager like Diego Simeone is unlikely to allow his players to become complacent and Atletico Madrid are rounding into magnificent form with 13 wins in 15 games in all competitions.

The First Leg at home looks a very good chance for Atletico Madrid to put themselves into a strong position in this Quarter Final. They have won 8 in a row at home in all competitions and kept clean sheets in each of those games, while Atletico Madrid have won 3 European home games with clean sheets in those too.

They could be facing Sporting Lisbon at the right time as the Portuguese team have lost half of their last 6 games in all competitions. Defeats in 3 of their last 4 away games has to be a concern for Sporting Lisbon who will try and frustrate Atletico Madrid and then hit them on the counter attack.

Sporting Lisbon are just not quite as good on their travels as they are at home and defeats in Barcelona and Juventus show they can struggle to compete at the level on which Atletico Madrid usually operate.

Scoring an away goal will be difficult for Sporting Lisbon in this Stadium and I think Atletico Madrid have found some real consistency going forward which makes them very dangerous. They have scored 18 goals in their 8 straight home wins and I think they are going to be earn a way into a very strong position at the end of this First Leg.

I will back Atletico Madrid to win by a couple of goals, at least, on the night at odds against.


Lazio v Salzburg Pick: For most people Lazio will be a clear favourite to get by Salzburg in this Europa League Quarter Final, but I think this has the making of a tough tie for them.

While they may play at a higher level more consistently, Salzburg have shown they can step up in the Europa League and beating clubs from Spain and Germany as the underdog will have given the players confidence. The success against Borussia Dortmund in the Last 16 was a particularly strong result for Salzburg and they have the makings of a team that can upset the odds for a third straight Round.

Salzburg have been unbeaten for a long time which will have given the players more belief in what they are trying to achieve, while they have proved tough to beat at European level with a run of 10 away ties without a defeat behind them.

Lazio have been strong at home, but they have drawn 2 of their last 3 Europa League ties here, while they had not won any of 4 home games prior to the win over ten man Benevento. While I accept Lazio are a tough team to beat, this could be a First Leg where Salzburg are able to do enough to secure a result to take back home.

It would be a surprise if Salzburg were able to win here, but they have played well enough to become the third team in four visits to Lazio to leave with a draw. I think that is worth a small interest in this First Leg of this Quarter Final in a tie where Lazio are odds on favourites to have a lead before the return in Salzburg next week.


Leipzig v Marseille Pick: Both Leipzig and Marseille are in a position to finish in the Champions League places domestically but both will also feel this is a Europa League Quarter Final tie they can win and move a step closer to earning their Champions League spot by winning this competition.

Both Leipzig and Marseille play a good brand of football and I do think there will be goals when they meet in the First Leg in Germany.

Leipzig have shown they have a team that can create chances against any they face, but they have also been defensively vulnerable and I expect that will show up here.

The only concern for me has to be the poor form Marseille showed away from home before the win in Athletic Bilbao. They hadn't been scoring many goals away from home in the Europa League, but they do come into this First Leg in decent form which eases those concerns.

I expect to see both teams have their opportunities in this one and I would expect the tie to be in the balance when they resume in the south of France next Thursday. With the kind of attacking players on show I will look for Leipzig and Marseille to combine for at least three goals in the First Leg.

MY PICKS: Juventus-Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Barcelona Win to Nil @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal-CSKA Moscow Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lazio-Salzburg Draw @ 3.75 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Leipzig-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)