Weekend Football Picks 2014 (October 25-27)

I don't know what it is about this week, but I do feel that time has run away from me- I didn't get a chance to put down my Champions League picks, which was a shame, but hopefully this last weekend in October can start changing some of my fortunes.

The late goal for Crystal Palace against Chelsea killed a pick last week which could have made the week at least a positive one, but that was the way things have been going for me. I do need a bit of luck to go my way to change things around as it looks like being three straight losing months after only going through two losing months during the whole of last season.


West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: Last weekend, Manchester City were involved in a high-scoring game at Saturday lunchtime to open the weekend Premier League action and it seems that a similar pattern could emerge from this game.

Manchester City have scored plenty of goals away from home and have proven to be very effective on their travels in the Premier League and in Sergio Aguero they have arguably the top striker in the Premier League. To be honest, I can't imagine too many will argue with that assertion about Aguero and I think he will give West Ham United some problems having scored three times in two games at Upton Park last season.

On the other hand, West Ham United are a much improved team from last season and are playing with a lot of confidence at the moment. Beating Liverpool here has shown the team what they are capable of and they have a 5 game unbeaten run to protect.

The Hammers are attacking and scoring goals and Manchester City have been vulnerable at times when teams have attacked them so there is every chance that West Ham will have their chances in this one.

However, the issue might be at the other end and keeping Manchester City from scoring the goals that gives them the edge in this game. I am expecting goals in this early game, but it is also a game I believe Manchester City will edge and I will back them to win a game that has at least three goals scored.


Liverpool v Hull City Pick: There has been a lot of criticism for Mario Balotelli in the face of his recent performances for Liverpool and you have to say that the gamble Brendan Rodgers made in signing him looks to have backfired. I personally believe the Italian is a decent player, but his lack of effort at times is infuriating and I would not be surprised if he is left out of the starting eleven for this game.

Liverpool will be looking to bounce back from their heavy Champions League loss and keep their Premier League form going in the right direction, but they look an uneasy favourite in this one.

I do expect Liverpool are going to win the game, but their defensive vulnerability is likely to be exposed, especially if they continue to 'defend' set pieces in the manner they have. Hull City are a side that are capable of putting decent balls into the box and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were to score in this one.

Hull City have scored in their last 7 away Premier League games and 10 of their last 11 and the set pieces are likely to cause some panic for Liverpool who only have a couple of days to work on them having conceded twice from that avenue against Real Madrid. On the other hand, Hull City have conceded at least two goals in 6 of their last 7 away Premier League games, including their last 3 in a row, and Liverpool will be looking to expose those issues even in the absence of Daniel Sturridge.

The side have rode their luck in a couple of League games to earn the three points and I think Liverpool are likely to find a way to the three points in this one with the attacking threat they do pose. However, it should be far from straight-forward and I expect Hull City will play their part in the game too as they showed when pushing Manchester City and Arsenal in recent League games.


Sunderland v Arsenal Pick: After the heavy beating that Sunderland took at the hands of Southampton, you have to feel there will be something of a response from the side in this one. The defending last week was disgusting once the side fell into a big hole and the last three or four goals were absolutely embarrassing, but Gus Poyet will have had a week to work on this and to get a real response from Sunderland.

This isn't the best game for Sunderland considering their recent set of results against Arsenal and I do think the attacking capability that the Gunners have are going to be tough to deal with.

However, Sunderland will also get some joy when they go forward against an Arsenal team that haven't had many clean sheets this whole season and that should make this a much closer match than the layers believe.

Arsenal scored twice in the last 25 minutes last season to beat Sunderland 1-3 at the Stadium of Light and games here have been far from easy for the men from North London. I think this one will be closer, although it is a game that I feel Arsenal can win, and I think backing them to win by a single goal margin may prove to be far more of a run than simply backing Arsenal to win at short odds this weekend.


Burnley v Everton Pick: The Premier League has looked a big step up for the Burnley players and even the excitement of promotion has produced a lot of positive results for the side in the early going.

They are entrenched in the bottom three and I think it will take a huge achievement from Sean Dyche to keep Burnley in the Premier League, but the financial gain should at least set the club up for the foreseeable future. Even playing at Turf Moor hasn't been making life easier for Burnley as they were beaten comfortably by both Chelsea and West Ham United here and the home team have been struggling for goals.

Everton themselves haven't won away from home for several weeks now since a 0-2 win at West Brom, but they do look a team that has more goals in the team than Burnley and I think they are likely to be too strong for Burnley in this game.

Playing in the Europa League and then balancing that with the Premier League has been a tough task for teams in the past, but Everton did win their last League game and will be looking to ride that momentum into this weekend. With the attackers at their disposal, Everton should find a way to grab the three points.


Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Pick: There have been plenty of funny results in the Premier League this season and every time you think you have a team in the right place, they throw in a disappointing result to set them back.

Tottenham Hotspur have put in some impressive performances, but also some really poor ones and it is tough to know which team will come out for this one. They did at least end their European hoodoo by beating Southampton following a Europa League game after their second Group game and Mauricio Pochettino will be expecting his team to make it another three points this weekend.

The side were ruthless in forward positions in a 5-1 win in the Europa League on Thursday, but Newcastle United have shown signs of life over the last couple of games. They fought back twice to earn a draw with Swansea, but Newcastle remain a team that has struggled on their travels in the Premier League with 7 losses from their last 9 away games.

Newcastle's win over Leicester City has eased the pressure on Alan Pardew, but they were a little fortunate to get that victory and it'll be tough to back that up at White Hart Lane. The side did win here last season, but this has not usually been a good trip for Newcastle United and I do think Spurs are likely to have just enough to earn the victory.

It wouldn't surprise me if this is a tight game, but Spurs to win looks the call this weekend.


Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: For about a week, I have really had the gut feeling that Manchester United can win this game against Chelsea, but the defensive mistakes made against West Brom won't be helpful to that prediction. If Manchester United leave the gaps they did against the Baggies on Monday night, Chelsea have the players and the confidence to exploit them and my big concern is how United deal with the counter-attack and the pace Chelsea have in that situation.

Missing Diego Costa and Loic Remy could see Jose Mourinho play the same false nine system he used at Old Trafford last season and he still plays a more cautious style when facing the best teams in the Premier League. Chelsea set up to defend in numbers against Manchester City and returned to that shape once they took the lead, even though the home team had just ten men.

Louis Van Gaal is unlikely to change his system too much to accommodate what Mourinho will do, but he needs Manchester United to try and impose themselves and to keep up a high demanding physical game for the entire 90 minutes. That has been a problem for United who have struggled in the later stages of matches, although the saving of a point at West Brom with a late goal might show the players are beginning to understand those demands.

Concentration is the big key for Manchester United at the back as some of the gaps West Brom were exploiting are a real worry for fans, especially with the game against Chelsea quickly followed by Manchester City and Arsenal.

However, at Old Trafford, Manchester United will feel they can create chances with their range of attacking options and they have made very fast starts where they have looked capable of putting teams to the sword in the first half hour of games.

Like I say, a gut feeling says United can win this game, but the chance for goals is probably much more likely. Mourinho can play a cautious style away from home against the top teams, but an early goal, which United are capable of getting, can change all game plans.

Goals have been the feature of all the Manchester United games, bar Burnley, this season and Chelsea have certainly scored plenty on their travels to suggest they can take part in a high-scoring game.

MY PICKS: Manchester City to Win and Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Arsenal to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Everton to Win @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur to Win @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
Manchester United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

October Update: 7-13, - 8.63 Units (37 Units Staked, - 23.32% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 20-40, - 22.20 Units (92 Units Staked, - 24.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)