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Friday, 3 October 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (October 3rd)

We have reached the Quarter Final stage for the tournaments in Beijing and Tokyo after a frustrating Thursday for the picks. It's rare that you will pick one player with an injury, but two was not a good bit of research at all.

Simona Halep and Serena Williams both failed to cover, but both won their matches, with the latter the more frustrating as she won the first set 61 and the final set 62, but didn't cover because she went walkabout mentally in the second set which was lost 16.

That does mean the week is still in a profit, but it could, and perhaps should, have been a lot better with a little more focus applied.

Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: I was quite interested to see the spread as big as this one considering how competitive some of their matches have been in the past. Grigor Dimitrov is an improved player from their early matches and he is was unfortunate in some ways that he didn't push the Wimbledon Semi Final into a fifth set, and I think Novak Djokovic is going to have to dig deep to see him off here.

This is a tournament that Djokovic has enjoyed and he does have a long winning run to defend, but Dimitrov has plenty of motivation on his side of the court as he looks to push his way into the top eight in the Race to London.

It has been easy to this point for Djokovic this week, but Dimitrov has a serve that can help him set up the points, while he also has plenty of confidence in the long rallies to believe he can find a way to penetrate the Serb's defences.

Djokovic has found his form following the US Open the last couple of years and I can understand he is going to be the favourite to progress, but it would surprise me if this is as easy as the layers think it potentially could be and I will take the games.

Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v John Isner: On the hard courts, you would think John Isner's big booming serve would make it very difficult to break him, but he found his biggest weapon broken three times by Tommy Robredo in the last Round. Another similar performance would make it very difficult for Isner to improve his head to head record against a motivated Tomas Berdych who is trying to reach the World Tour Finals again.

Berdych has been in good form to open the week in Beijing as he looks to add some vital points to his current 8th place in the Race to London and he did see off Isner here last season at the same stage very comfortably.

The big serve that Berdych possesses should give him a chance to consolidate any breaks of serve he is able to conjure up and I think the added motivation of the points on offer will keep him very motivated on the task at hand.

Expect a lot of rallies that end before five shots are played, but if Berdych can force Isner to play enough on his serve, I fancy he will find at least a break more than the American and come through 76, 64.

Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Roberta Vinci: I was surprised that Roberta Vinci got the better of Ekaterina Makarova in the last Round in Beijing, but she would have invested quite a bit emotionally which suggests that Petra Kvitova is able to see her off in the Quarter Final.

While Vinci was coming through a three set match, Kvitova was handed a walkover to this Round and the confidence has been flowing in a player that has won a title in Wuhan last week.

The last three matches have been very close between these players, with the Italian surprisingly winning two of them, but Kvitova is playing at a higher level than she has for some time and I think that power and accuracy will be tough for Vinci to deal with.

In saying that, Vinci causes problems with her slices which takes away the pace and forces Kvitova to push a little more to find her power rather than using anything that is coming towards her. However, that shot won't hurt Kvitova consistently either and a rested Wimbledon Champion could win this 75, 62.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-7, + 2.06 Units (30 Units Staked, + 6.87% Yield)

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