Tennis Picks 2014 (October 20th)

This is the final week of the WTA Tour in the 2014 season with the Finals taking place in Singapore as the top eight players in the world fight out for the last prize of the year. We also are going to see two ATP 500 events which could really begin to highlight which eight players will be competing in the ATP World Tour Finals in three weeks time as five of the eight participants have been confirmed.


Well that might be pushing things as Rafael Nadal has booked his place in London for the Tour Finals, but admitted last week that he is going to take part in Basel and then reevaluate whether he will take his place in London. Nadal has been suffering with his appendix and is certainly going to have to go in for surgery, but he was hoping to delay that until the end of the season, although those plans look to have changed following his surprise loss in Shanghai.

I do believe Nadal wanted to end the season with some positive momentum, but he had a long time off the Tour and I think I would have advised him to sit out before the appendix issue showed up as the indoor hard court season hasn't been the most productive for him. Of course winning the Tour Finals is arguably the last prize in tennis that Nadal needs to win and it is clear that means something to him as he has previously argued for the surface to also be changed rather than consistently played on indoor hard courts.

I think that was the motivation for him to come back and compete, but at this stage it wouldn't be a surprise to hear he has pulled out of the event, although it might need an early exit in Basel for that to come about.


If Nadal does decide to miss the Tour Finals, it will make the final two weeks a little less exciting to see which players make it to London- Kei Nishikori is almost certainly going to be the sixth man which means that four players are fighting for two places, but the exit of Nadal would open up another place to lessen the intrigue just a little.

Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych strengthened their positions last week by beating David Ferrer and Grigor Dimitrov in Finals, the current Number 9 and Number 10 in the Race to London. All four players are in action in Basel/Valencia this week which could be the pivotal one in determining which players are competing in the Tour Finals, although the last Masters event in Paris presents a lot of points to earn too.


I took a week off from the picks last week as I tend to do at this time of the season, but the season still looks to be an improvement on the 2013 one although not to the levels of 2011 and 2012. There have been some real ups and downs during the last ten months, but hopefully a strong last month will end the 2014 with a positive feeling.


Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Simone Bolelli: After all I have said about Rafael Nadal and his health, this is the kind of match that the Spaniard should be winning fairly comfortably and I think there has been an overreaction to some of his health concerns. There is no doubt that Nadal isn't at 100% with the appendix bothering him, but I imagine he has taken his place in the Basel draw because he feels he is capable of bringing some quality tennis to the court and that may be too much for Simone Bolelli to match.

I always respect a qualifier as they will have become accustomed to the conditions compared with the other players in the draw and Simone Bolelli had to dig deep to come through those qualifying rounds. He won both matches in three sets and the indoor courts should aid him in this match with the serve one of the weapons he has when it is firing on all cylinders.

The first serve should give Bolelli a chance, but he needs to make sure he gets a high percentage in play if he is to surprise Nadal for the first time having lost all three previous matches against him. The issues Nadal is having with his health has to give the Italian some more belief in creating an upset, but I am not sure he has the full mental belief to win a match like this.

Nadal will have to play better than he did in his loss to Feliciano Lopez in Shanghai, but I was still expecting this handicap to be at least a game higher and I can see Bolelli fighting hard in the first set before falling away in a 76, 63 loss.


Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: The big question about the WTA Finals is the health of a number of players taking part considering all the withdrawals the top players were having in the final weeks of the season.

They have all arrived in Singapore for the final tournament of the season which suggests those withdrawals were more for cautionary reasons and the first group games will be played over the next couple of days.

I fancy Serena Williams to get off to a strong start against Ana Ivanovic despite the distraction of what a Russian official said when describing the Williams sisters as the 'Williams brothers' on Russian TV. Williams has made it clear how much that has angered her, but I can see her coming out and putting on a statement match to try and focus on the tennis.

Ana Ivanovic has given Williams fits in two matches this season, winning one of those at the Australian Open, and she has been in decent form with plenty of wins behind her. However, the Serb can sometimes be rattled by the best players on the Tour and quickly get down on herself if she doesn't immediately open competitively and the first few games will say a lot about this match.

If Williams makes a fast start, Ivanovic could be blown away and focus on her remaining two matches as her best bet of getting out of the group and I can see the American producing a 63, 63 sort of win.


Eugenie Bouchard v Simona Halep: Eugenie Bouchard can sometimes be a frustrating player to watch as her style of play can lead to a lot of errors which looks like she is giving away a match, but her power is also the reason she has reached the business end of some many big tournaments this season.

The young Canadian is making her first appearance in the WTA Finals, but so is opponent Simona Halep so I do think there will be nerves on both sides of the net. That is going to be coupled with the additional pressure of believing this is the match that has to be won if they are to progress to the Semi Finals and I think this will be closely contested.

Halep is the better mover and defender of the two, but Bouchard does have the shot-making to hit through her as long as she is serving well and cutting down on the unforced errors. Generally the indoor hard courts have favoured Bouchard of the two players and I think she can back up her win over the Romanian at Wimbledon by beating her here too in what has been set as a pick 'em match. 

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)

Season 2014: + 28.14 Units (1505.5 Units Staked, + 1.87% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units