The first five weeks of the season have been difficult to find some consistency from the picks I have made and I do almost feel I am almost over-researching some of the picks I have made. While the NFL picks have been going pretty well, inconsistency means I had a losing week last week and remain trying to turn the season around.
Hopefully a Week 6 full of some really big games can begin the recovery as Conference play really gets going with some huge games in the Big 12 and SEC through Saturday.
SMU Mustangs @ East Carolina Pirates Pick: Over the first four games, I have backed against the SMU Mustangs at least three times as they have looked a school in disarray and there is little doubt in my mind that a lot needs to change. The Mustangs have lost their Head Coach, are down to a fourth string Quarter Back and will be desperate for the bye week in two weeks time to try and right a few of their wrongs.
It is fair to say that the Mustangs have taken on a very powerful schedule to open the season, but the East Carolina Pirates have had it far from easy and have been winning those tough games. That should have instilled a lot of confidence in the Pirates team that they are capable of big things in the American Athletic Conference and I think they show up big on Saturday.
Shane Carden has been very strong from the Quarter Back position and figures to have a big game with his arm and his legs, while he also has the luxury of simply being able to hand the ball off. The Mustangs have shown little ability to slow any kind of running game being established and East Carolina could be ripping off big gains that set Carden up for another strong day.
It is hard to see the Mustangs making this competitive as they have scored just 12 points in their first four games and have failed to even register a point in two of those games. They haven’t surpassed 6 points in a single game and even getting up to 10 points might not be enough.
East Carolina are coming off a bye so they should have been given enough time to focus on the task at hand and could be clear of this spread by the half with the way the Offense has been rolling.
Iowa State Cyclones @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: The Oklahoma State Cowboys lost JW Walsh in the Quarter Back position, but they haven't let them miss a beat and they are looking for their fourth win in their last five games against the Iowa State Cyclones. Those four wins have come by large margins and I think they can blow out the Cyclones in Stillwater on Saturday.
Those four wins have come by 30 points per game and they have had a few more days to prepare for this game having beaten Texas Tech ten days ago. The Cowboys should be able to move the chains consistently through the air and on the ground in this game, although the Offensive Line can be a attacked by a pass rush that the Cyclones can send.
Iowa State will have some success throwing the ball against Oklahoma State, but the problem is that they won't be able to establish a running game which means all the pressure will be on Sam Richardson at Quarter Back to make plays.
Like I say, the Cyclones should make some plays through the air, but the Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection and that is an area that Oklahoma State have excelled in the early games played. Add in the ball-hawking nature of the Secondary and the Cowboys could create extra possessions with short fields that could be key for them to cover this spread.
The Cowboys have also improved to 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 home games as the favourite and their three home wins over the Cyclones have come by 21 points or more and I like Oklahoma State to cover.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: The Texas A&M Aggies had to fight out of a big hole to beat the Arkansas Razorbacks last week and it will be interesting to see whether they can ride the emotions of that win or whether there isn't much left in the tank.
They face another unbeaten SEC West team who are well rested coming off a bye which was preceded by a surprise win over the LSU Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs have to be confident they can knock off another big rival.
However, I like the Aggies in this one with the points because I believe a little more in their Offense than I do in Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs Offense. Kenny Hill should have a real chance to have a big game throwing the ball against a Secondary that has allowed over 300 yards per game through the air. Aside from the LSU game, the Bulldogs haven't played any team that should have contributed to those numbers which should make Hill confident he can continue his hot start to the new season.
The Aggies Defense is under-rated too and I think they can get some pressure up front on Prescott which could see Texas A&M force some mistakes from the Quarter Back which can give them the extra possessions to perhaps win this game outright.
Texas A&M have improved to 7-2 on the road in SEC play and they have also knocked off Mississippi State twice in a row and I do think Hill will have the ball last which should see the Aggies keep this close and potentially win outright.
Oklahoma Sooners @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: What makes this game fascinating is that the two Defenses are playing against Offenses of the strength they wouldn't have seen so far this season and so it will be interesting to see which of those units is for real.
Trevor Knight has played well at times for the Oklahoma Sooners at Quarter Back, but he has made too many mistakes too which is always going to be something that could potentially prevent the Sooners playing for the National Championship. Bob Stoops would have had a week to prepare and get rid of some of the errors his team have made and that bye week could be critical for Oklahoma to beat the TCU Horned Frogs on the road in this huge Big 12 game.
I like what TCU have done from a Defensive standpoint to open the season, but they haven't played a team that is anything like the level of Oklahoma and I think that is the biggest question mark here. While I think Trevone Boykin can make some plays against the Oklahoma Secondary, it won't be as easy for him in third and long situations if the Sooners slow down the rushing yards that the Horned Frogs gain.
So can Oklahoma move the chains with any level of consistency to win this game? They have proved they can find running room against the TCU Horned Frogs much vaunted Defense the last two seasons and the Sooners outgained them in yardage in back to back seasons. Doing that again will give the Sooners a real shot to make it three in a row against the Horned Frogs in a similar scoreline to two years ago when they last met here.
The Horned Frogs are 1-3 against the spread as the home underdog over the last two seasons, while Oklahoma are 4-2 against the spread in road games coming off a week rest. The Sooners are also 7-1 in road games in the Big 12 over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average of 16 points per game and I like them to cover in a tough battle in Forth Worth.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: This is one of two games with unbeaten SEC West teams facing one another on Saturday and these games could really start separating those with real ambitions of playing for the National Championship and those who are going to be also-rans.
The Alabama Crimson Tide have been the benchmark of the SEC West in recent seasons and they have dominated a number of their rivals in this Division, including beating Mississippi 10 times in a row.
This Rebels team have a lot more confidence coming into the game, but they also were saying the right things last season before failing to score a single point against a dominant Defense. The Crimson Tide can shut down the rushing Offense which will put more pressure on Bo Wallace at Quarter Back to avoid the mistakes that he has been guilty of making this season.
Any additional possessions that the Crimson Tide can pick up will give their Offense the chance to move away from Mississippi, although the Rebels Defense has been the strength of the team so far. However, I think they are going to have a hard time containing the Running Back corps that Alabama will use as the Rebels have allowed 114 yards per game on the ground against teams that don't have the Offensive Line that Alabama do.
That could open things up for Blake Sims to make a few big plays with his arm that can help Alabama extend their run to 11 straight wins over Mississippi in this game. The Rebels are just 5-11 in the last four years when hosting a Conference game, while Alabama are 17-11 against the spread as the road favourite under Nick Saban.
This looks a game that could be decided by the last plays of the game and I will look for the Alabama Defense to have one more big stand to help the team come through by a Touchdown.
Baylor Bears @ Texas Longhorns Pick: The Big 12 has a number of quality teams that can cause a surprise on any given weekend and Conference play is always very difficult for teams to negotiate with big game after big game.
The Baylor Bears have an Offense that has been playing very well under the guidance of Bryce Petty and they should have a chance to test the Texas Defense like they haven't been tested to this point of the season.
However, it certainly won't be a game where the Bears are able to move the ball up and down the field at will as Texas can get plenty of pressure up front and that may force Petty to throw before he is ready or face potential sacks, even if the Offensive Line has played well.
In saying that, I still believe Baylor will have more success consistently than the Texas Offensive counterparts as the Bears Defense is one under-rated unit. While the Bears may establish a ground game that keeps the Offense in third and manageable situations, Texas might not have the same luxury which means more pressure on the inexperienced Tyrone Swoopes to make plays from the Quarter Back position.
Baylor dominated the yardage last season which ended in a 20 point win and could have been a wider margin. They should also be plenty motivated to impress the voters with a strong road win against a big name school as well as some of the talk coming from the Texas Longhorns locker room that they believe Baylor are 'trash'.
Outside of a game against North Texas, the Longhorns have only surpassed 20 points in 2 of their last 7 games and I can see the Baylor Defense setting up their team for a big win on the road.
Kansas Jayhawks @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: Charlie Weis has been removed as Head Coach as the 'Offensive Guru' masterminded a performance where the Kansas Jayhawks failed to score a point against the Texas Longhorns. Add in the fact that the West Virginia Mountaineers will be playing with revenge on their mind after their surprise loss in Kansas last year and I think the home team have a real chance of winning this one big.
Kansas will have some success running the ball while this game is in the balance, but they haven't passed the ball well and the Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection.
Clint Trickett and the Mountaineers Offense could make that a moot point if they continue slinging the ball around as effectively as they have against some better opposition and there is every chance they can take advantage of what has to be a demoralised Jayhawks team that have lost their leader.
The Mountaineers have had a bye to prepare for this game and should be fully focused, especially after remembering last season and can add to Kansas' 22 straight road losses in Big 12 play.
Memphis Tigers @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The American Athletic Conference is expected to be a battle between the Cincinnati Bearcats, the UCF Knights, the East Carolina Pirates and the Houston Cougars which means the Bearcats can't afford to drop a game like this one in Conference play.
I am a little concerned the game takes place between road games at Ohio State and Miami for the Bearcats, but I believe a real chance of winning a Conference title will keep Cincinnati focused on the task at hand.
It won't be an easy game simply because the Cincinnati Defense is struggling to get off the field this season and Memphis could have a decent game running the ball. Paxton Lynch has made some mistakes from the Quarter Back position which could give Cincinnati extra possessions, particularly if the pass rush up front rushes Lynch, but this Defense has to show something more than they have in the first three games if the pressure isn't going to be on Gunner Kiel to make the plays for the home team.
Kiel has made a stunning start to his College career having sat out at Notre Dame before transferring to Cincinnati and he could easily match the UCLA 396 passing yards against this Memphis Defense. There is no doubt that it will be tough to establish a ground game against them, but Kiel has been very confident throwing the ball that he should have plenty of success.
The Quarter Back has 14 Touchdown passes and 2 Interceptions this season and I can see the Cincinnati pass rush pressure Paxton Lynch into one more turnover that could see the Bearcats come through and cover. Cincinnati are 6-3 against the spread coming off a straight up loss in the last three seasons and I can see them bouncing back from the loss at Ohio State by securing their first Conference win of the season.
LSU Tigers @ Auburn Tigers Pick: The LSU Tigers have won 3 in a row in the series and 6 of the last 7 against the Auburn Tigers, but the team that finished second in the race for the National Championship last season can get a measure of revenge on Saturday.
Auburn have lost 2 of their last 3 home games to LSU, but this is one of the more inexperienced LSU teams of recent seasons and I think they will find it tough to overcome Auburn on the road this time around.
Both teams could have some success with the ball in their hands, but the LSU Defense has to worry about their performance on the ground so far this season as that is where Auburn's Offense will look to make the majority of their play. With Auburn being able to keep Nick Marshall in third and manageable, the home team should be able to move the ball more effectively of the two units.
Brandon Harris will get the start for LSU at Quarter Back and I do think that is a positive move from Les Miles, but he is going to be under pressure from the Auburn pass rush and has to be aware of the turnover creating Secondary that the home team have.
Auburn have improved to 6-3 against the spread as the home favourite since Gus Malzahn took over as Head Coach at the beginning of last season and I think they will control the clock in this one with their running game and that should give them the chance to eventually force mistakes as LSU push to get back into it. Those mistakes can help the Auburn Tigers cover this game.
MY PICKS: East Carolina Pirates - 41 Points @ 1.95 Unibet (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 14.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers - 27 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 5: 4-5, - 1.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 12.56% Yield)
Week 4: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Week 3: 3-7-1, - 4.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)
Week 2: 5-6, - 1.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 10.72% Yield)
Week 1: 6-4, + 1.77 Units (10 Units Staked, + 11.7% Yield)
Season 2014: 24-27-1, - 4.14 Units (52 Units Staked, - 7.96% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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