Week 6 Thoughts
Joe Philbin's time as Dolphins Head Coach is about up: It hasn't been much fun being a Miami Dolphins fan for many a year now, but there were seemingly some signs of a positive year developing except Joe Philbin's poor Head Coaching for the team saw the Dolphins drop a game they had no business losing.
After limp efforts in Week 16 and 17 last season with the Play Offs in their own destiny, many were surprised that Joe Philbin was called back as Head Coach, particularly with the awful Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin scandal that affected the team, but brought back he was.
Beating the New England Patriots in Week 1 this season raised hopes, but defeats at Buffalo and at home against Kansas City reduced the expectations and the loss to the Green Bay Packers was heartbreaking last week to drop Miami to 2-3 in what looked an open AFC East.
The play-calling cost Miami at the end of the game, including throwing the ball on second down with a little over two minutes left, while the time out call on a Green Bay fourth down with time ticking was one of the poorest decisions Philbin could have made. Give Aaron Rodgers time to think of a play and you can pretty much call the game!
The fake spike that led to the Packers moving the ball down to the five yard line was just the icing on a miserable cake for Miami with games like this potentially costing them a Play Off berth later in the season. Failure to make the post-season will surely spell the end of the Philbin era as he is just 17-20 as Head Coach to this point.
How many more beatings are Tampa Bay going to take? How embarrassing for the Buccaneers- after giving up 56 points to Atlanta a few weeks ago, they followed that with the 38 points Baltimore scored in ONE HALF last week.
Spending all that money on Josh McCown looks every bit the desperate move that people thought it was in Free Agency, while the Defense has not picked up the new system that is being asked of them.
The only good news for Lovie Smith and his new Coaching staff is that Tampa Bay look like they are going to have a very high Draft pick next April, one that could see them picking a Quarter Back they truly believe in with Mike Glennon being a pick of the previous regime.
There is one other bit of good news to be honest- Tampa Bay are on a bye this week and probably will avoid another blow out.
So does everyone still think New England are done? It was only two weeks ago that New England were being written off in the AFC and Tom Brady was 'finished' as an elite Quarter Back, but dominating wins over the last two weeks have changed all those perceptions.
I said a couple of weeks ago that I neither think New England are as bad as they looked at Kansas City as they are as good as they looked against Cincinnati, but they remain the best team in the AFC East and look set to go into the Play Offs with one of the better records in the Conference.
I still wouldn't rate New England as good as San Diego, Denver or Indianapolis in the AFC, but the Patriots have shown how quickly things can change in the NFL, particularly when it comes to the casual fans, and those reactions certainly make a difference in the spreads we see on a weekly basis.
The Patriots have big tests ahead to see where they really stand, but I think it is very unlikely we hear calls for Brady to benched.
Kirk Cousins is not good enough to be a starter in the NFL: Talking about Quarter Backs that shouldn't be benched leads to a few thoughts on another that has just about given up his chances of being a starter in the NFL as far as I am concerned.
Kirk Cousins was seen as the better fit in Jay Gruden's system than Robert Griffin III and many Washington fans were hoping to see Cousins start at Quarter Back. After RG3 was injured, Cousins played well against Jacksonville, but which Quarter Back won't this season, and also produced a solid game against Philadelphia, but the last two weeks have been horrific.
Back breaking Interceptions have cost Washington games against the New York Giants, but in particular the one against Arizona last week when the Offense gave up the ball four times in the Fourth Quarter alone in a 10 point loss.
It was so bad that some are calling for Colt McCoy to replace Cousins, while RG3 has been called the definite starter as soon as he is ready- with a Quarter Back heavy class ready to come out of College next season, Cousins is unlikely to be given a starting job and looks set for a career back up role in the hope he can come in and do a 'Josh McCown' at some point.
Denver Broncos are the most popular team in the NFL: That is according to a recent poll conducted and just goes to show how quick many people are going to be to jump onto a successful bandwagon, one of my biggest pet hates in being a sports fan.
The leaps that Denver have made from the polls conducted in 2011 to now just highlights that fact, while the top eight teams are all those who have been very successful in recent years aside from the Dallas Cowboys who remain as high as Number 4.
Some have historically big fan bases like Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and the New York Giants, but teams like Seattle and Denver are perhaps boosted by the success of their recent teams.
Top Ten
1) San Diego Chargers (5-1): I had San Diego Number 1 last week and won't be moving them even if they had a closer than expected win at the Oakland Raiders last week.
2) Denver Broncos (4-1): Who'd have thunk it? The AFC West has the two best teams in the NFL right now as far as I am concerned, although the Broncos can certainly move up my Rankings if they can beat San Francisco and San Diego in the space of four days next week.
3) Dallas Cowboys (5-1): How many people are laughing at me placing Dallas as high as Number 4 now? I backed Seattle last week to see off these Cowboys, but they might be even better than I thought, although in a dangerous game in Week 7 against Divisional rivals the New York Giants.
4) Philadelphia Eagles (5-1): Arguably their best game of the season saw Philadelphia crush the New York Giants, but Nick Foles has to make better decisions for the Eagles to challenge for the Super Bowl.
5) San Francisco 49ers (4-2): Three straight wins has cooled suggestions the players are not behind Jim Harbaugh, but a huge statement game for them this weekend at the Denver Broncos.
6) Indianapolis Colts (4-2): I predicted the Indianapolis Colts to finish with the best record in the AFC this season and that remains a real possibility thanks to playing in the awful AFC South.
7) Seattle Seahawks (3-2): That was an appalling loss to the Dallas Cowboys after being battered in almost all three phases of the game and even the 7 point loss doesn't highlight the Dallas dominance.
8) Green Bay Packers (4-2): They escaped with a win from Miami, but Aaron Rodgers playing at this level is going to be very difficult to beat.
9) New England Patriots (4-2): The Patriots have looked themselves over the last two weeks, but I am not convinced about this team being as good as they have shown.
10) Arizona Cardinals (4-1): Arizona have a strong record, but the game with Washington would have been much closer if the Redskins Offense hadn't imploded in the Fourth Quarter and they need Carson Palmer to remain healthy.
2) Denver Broncos (4-1): Who'd have thunk it? The AFC West has the two best teams in the NFL right now as far as I am concerned, although the Broncos can certainly move up my Rankings if they can beat San Francisco and San Diego in the space of four days next week.
3) Dallas Cowboys (5-1): How many people are laughing at me placing Dallas as high as Number 4 now? I backed Seattle last week to see off these Cowboys, but they might be even better than I thought, although in a dangerous game in Week 7 against Divisional rivals the New York Giants.
4) Philadelphia Eagles (5-1): Arguably their best game of the season saw Philadelphia crush the New York Giants, but Nick Foles has to make better decisions for the Eagles to challenge for the Super Bowl.
5) San Francisco 49ers (4-2): Three straight wins has cooled suggestions the players are not behind Jim Harbaugh, but a huge statement game for them this weekend at the Denver Broncos.
6) Indianapolis Colts (4-2): I predicted the Indianapolis Colts to finish with the best record in the AFC this season and that remains a real possibility thanks to playing in the awful AFC South.
7) Seattle Seahawks (3-2): That was an appalling loss to the Dallas Cowboys after being battered in almost all three phases of the game and even the 7 point loss doesn't highlight the Dallas dominance.
8) Green Bay Packers (4-2): They escaped with a win from Miami, but Aaron Rodgers playing at this level is going to be very difficult to beat.
9) New England Patriots (4-2): The Patriots have looked themselves over the last two weeks, but I am not convinced about this team being as good as they have shown.
10) Arizona Cardinals (4-1): Arizona have a strong record, but the game with Washington would have been much closer if the Redskins Offense hadn't imploded in the Fourth Quarter and they need Carson Palmer to remain healthy.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6): Gus Bradley can take a portion of the blame that Jacksonville remain winless after deciding on a long Field Goal with time expiring last week, but he certainly could have gained a few more yards before asking Josh Scobee to have a go from 55 yards out.
31) Oakland Raiders (0-5): I still believe Derek Carr can be a Quarter Back in the NFL and he was so close to causing the surprise against the San Diego Chargers last week. Oakland may not get that close to a win again though.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5): The blow out losses to Atlanta and Baltimore are absolutely embarrassing for a team that expected to challenge in the NFC South.
29) Washington Redskins (1-5): Kirk Cousins isn't the ready-made starter that some Washington fans expected, but they do have a winnable game this week when they host Tennessee.
28) New York Jets (1-5): Five straight losses with Geno Smith struggling and Rex Ryan just about done as Head Coach and a promising season that began with a win over Oakland has quickly become a nightmare.
Week 7 Picks
I wasn't a big fan of the games scheduled for Week 6 and I am glad I sat on the side of caution with so many games going the way of the highly picked teams and I didn't have too many of them on my list. The Green Bay Packers game was a bit misfortunate as the Packers were under a Field Goal favourite to win on Sunday, but were dead on the number when I locked in the picks on Saturday evening.
That has happened a couple of times and does make me wonder if I should hold back on a couple of picks until Sunday to see where the line moves, but it is not always easy to make the right read with sharp money moving those lines between the end of the College games on Saturday evening and the NFL ones on Sunday.
The Week 6 picks have seen me have the second losing week of the season, but that does mean the season tally is still in a healthy spot and hopefully can start moving in the right direction again after three fairly non-plus weeks.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: Thursday Night Football games have been something of a disappointment for the television network as each week has just seen blow out after blow out occurring. It looked like last week was going to be the same before the Houston Texans rallied to make a very competitive game with the Indianapolis Colts and I can see this AFC East Divisional game being closer than anticipated.
The New York Jets have been pretty poor over the last few games, but they were very competitive against the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots seem to get the best effort that the Jets are able to muster up. That is shown by the last three games in New England all being won by the Patriots, but by a combined 15 points, while the Jets did finally knock off the Patriots last season at home, their first win over New England since beating them in the Play Offs of the 2010 season.
Everyone is going to back on the New England bandwagon this week after back to back impressive victories, but I think the Jets Defense can definitely make this a more competitive game as long as Geno Smith doesn't throw Interceptions in his own half of the field.
The Jets get plenty of pressure up front which will provide a real test for the New England Offensive Line that had been abused by the Kansas City Chiefs and it might just slow down Tom Brady enough once the pressure is in his face. I still expect Brady will have a decent game because the Jets Secondary is an abomination, but the pressure up front has been a problem for Brady and can at least stall some drives.
Add in the fact that the Jets have played the run effectively and New England are without Stevan Ridley and there is enough to suggest the Patriots won't be moving the ball freely all evening.
Geno Smith is a problem though with his mistakes costing the Jets a couple of games already, but he might be aided by Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson considering the Patriots have struggled against the run this season. Ivory has previous against New England with a 100 yard game against them last season, while the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per carry.
Keeping Smith in third and manageable positions is imperative for this Offense that is dealing with a decent Patriots pass rush and the ability to create turnovers, but he will need Eric Decker to find a way to get open as he is clearly the best Wide Receiver on the Jets roster.
The Jets are also 5-2 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games over the last three seasons, while they are also 3-1 against the spread in the last four games in New England. The weather also makes points potentially at a premium on Thursday and I think the Jets can run the ball better than the Patriots so I'll have a small interest on the road team with the points.
Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This isn't the best spot for the Baltimore Ravens which is the biggest concern I have for them this weekend as they follow this game with back to back road games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, two big AFC North rivals. A game against a non-Conference foe wouldn't normally matter, but the North looks a very tough Division where every win should make the difference and that should keep the Ravens plenty focused.
It is also a tough position for the Atlanta Falcons who are coming off three straight losses and knowing they have to travel to London for a game against the Detroit Lions immediately following this one.
If Baltimore are fully focused as I imagine they should be, it is going to be a very long day in the office for the Atlanta Defense which has struggled for stops. The Ravens are coming off a very strong Offensive showing and Joe Flacco should have plenty of time to add to his season numbers, while also knowing he can lean on a decent rushing attack led by Justin Forsett to keep the Ravens in solid downs and distance.
On the other hand, Matt Ryan might not have the luxury of being in short yardage situations to pass and his Offensive Line has really struggled to keep the pressure off their Quarter Back. Ryan has made some big plays downfield to Julio Jones, but he still needs some time and is seemingly being hit constantly when he drops back to pass.
The Atlanta Offensive Line has not played well and even the Ravens will feel they can get after Ryan despite not having a lot of success rushing the Quarter Back this season. That will make it tough for the Falcons to keep drives moving and it could be another tough day for Ryan at Quarter Back.
Baltimore have dominated the two NFC South teams they have already faced this season and they have been a very strong home team under John Harbaugh. I would expect them to win this by a Touchdown and cover the number on offer.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I know the Cleveland Browns have been playing very well this season and exceeding expectations, but doesn't it seem funny to anyone that they are considered the same level as the Indianapolis Colts if this spread is to be believed.
The Colts were 6 points favourites here in Jacksonville earlier in the season and Cleveland are going to go off a little short of that mark which looks remarkably high on first glance. Yes, the Browns are the better team, but a lot of their games have been very close this season and the Jaguars have shown some life last week in their close loss to Tennessee.
Bryan Hoyer has been very good at Quarter Back, but might not have the strong support on the ground that he received last week considering the strength of the Jaguars Defense is on the Defensive Line. They have gotten pressure on the Quarter Back from that position too, although Hoyer should still have a big game as the Jacksonville Secondary has been terrible with a lot of blown coverages.
Blake Bortles has made mistakes that rookie Quarter Backs have done through the NFL history, but he has also shown his upside at times, although with a limited cast around him. Bortles could have a decent game against a Cleveland Secondary that may be missing one of their starting Corner Backs, while the Jaguars have a chance to establish a running game to ease the pressure on their Quarter Back for the first time.
After coming off a big win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, it is a tough spot for Cleveland and I really think this is too big a spread for the road favourite, although I can't have more than a minimum interest on the Jaguars who have found ways to miss covers all season.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: When I first looked at the spreads this week, this game jumped off the page and I will admit it looks about as square a pick as you are going to see.
The Indianapolis Colts have been in very strong form in recent weeks, even if they have beaten three AFC South teams that are not exactly the best opposition in the NFL, but the home win over the Baltimore Ravens was much more impressive.
On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed far too many points over the last two games and are a little banged up on both sides of the ball. The lack of pressure they have got up front also will give Andrew Luck plenty of time to attack the Secondary and he has enough Receiving options to keep the chains moving.
Andy Dalton will be missing his biggest Receiving threat in AJ Green and while they managed without him last week in scoring 37 points against the Carolina Panthers, it might not be so easy against the Colts Defense which has gotten a strong pass rush. Dalton might not have the same time to dissect the Secondary as he had last week and that could see drives stalling.
However, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill should have strong games establishing the run which could give the Bengals a chance for the upset if they can control the clock, sustain drives and importantly keep Luck on the sidelines.
Indianapolis are playing with revenge for their loss to the Bengals last season and will know a win in this game could be important when it comes down to which teams receive a bye in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs later in the season. Like I said, I am not a fan when things seem 'obvious', but the Colts have looked the better team over the last three weeks and I will back them to cover this Field Goal spread.
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears Pick: This was another one of those spreads that may have jumped off the page for people capping Week 7 in the NFL, but I am actually likely to be going against perceptions.
The Miami Dolphins were an underdog by more than a Field Goal when the spread first hit the books, but that has come down to land on the three points line although I still think the Dolphins are worth backing this week.
Brandon Marshall may have a big game against the team that traded him away to Chicago with a point to prove, but Jay Cutler is likely to be under immense pressure for much of the afternoon. He won't have a lot of support from establishing the run and that should give Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon the chance to put pressure on the Quarter Back and perhaps force a couple of mistakes.
As inconsistent and mistake-prone Ryan Tannehill has been, Miami can give the ball to Lamar Miller to rip off big gains on the ground, and Tannehill also showed he can run the read-option effectively. Keeping Tannehill in third and short spots should keep the pressure off of the Quarter Back, even if Chicago haven't earned a lot of pressure up front, and will ease any mental burden to make a lot of big plays.
The Bears are also just 8-14-1 against the spread in their last 23 games as the favourite, while Miami have a stunning 17-3 record against the spread as the road underdog by five points or fewer in the last six seasons.
I do wish the spread was still above the Field Goal line, but Miami might just be one of the surprises of Week 6.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been playing very well in recent weeks and they showed their mettle in coming back to beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 6. The Packers should have a very strong day Offensively behind Aaron Rodgers, especially if Eddie Lacy and James Starks can provide a strong running game for Rodgers.
The Carolina Defense has struggled without Greg Hardy and it does feel they are a touch over-rated despite the fact they have given up at least 37 points in 3 of their last 4 games.
Cam Newton looked good against the Cincinnati Bengals and looks like he has finally shook off the niggles he has been carrying, but he might be asked to do plenty on his own if the Panthers are to cause a surprise. The Packers Defense should be a little more ready for the read-option Offense that Miami employed very effectively against them last week, while Newton doesn't have De'Angelo Williams in the backfield to keep the Packers more honest.
It looks like a game that could develop into something of a shoot-out, but it does look difficult for the Panthers to keep up with Green Bay who have been in a very good place mentally over the last three weeks.
If Newton is throwing the ball around to keep up, this Packers Secondary is one that is capable of making the big turnover and that should help Green Bay pull away.
While the game should be close for a while, eventually I would imagine the Packers are able to prevail by at least a Touchdown as Aaron Rodgers improves his 20-8 record against the spread when set as the home favourite.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Pick: A quick look at my Power Rankings above will show you that I have a lot of respect for this San Diego Chargers team so the question has to be why do I like taking Kansas City with the points this week?
Andy Reid has historically been very good coming off a bye week and I expect he will have prepared the Chiefs effectively in a game that is very important for them if they have a real ambition of returning to the Play Offs out of the tough AFC West.
I also believe this is a pretty bad spot for the San Diego Chargers who visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 8 in a game that will determine which team will lead the AFC West. This is a Divisional game so remains important for the Chargers, but it is also very possible they can be looking ahead to that game against Denver which has much bigger Play Off implications.
Both games between these teams were won by San Diego last season, but both only by a Field Goal each time and Jamaal Charles could have a big game running the ball to keep the Chiefs in manageable down and distance, an area where Alex Smith can shine at Quarter Back.
The Chiefs can also get a lot of pressure up front to cover the deficiencies in the Secondary, but San Diego could also have a strong game running the ball. Both teams are matched up quite well and I think this is going to produce a close fought game on Sunday afternoon.
San Diego are only 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games as the favourite against a Divisional opponent and I like backing the Chiefs in this spot with the points who are also 4-2 against the spread as the road underdog since Andy Reid arrived as Head Coach.
Arizona Cardinals @ Oakland Raiders Pick: The second most square pick of the week I am making is taking the Arizona Cardinals to beak the Oakland Raiders on the road and cover what doesn't look the biggest spread.
My concern for the Raiders is that they emptied the tank both mentally and physically in coming up short against a Divisional rival San Diego at home last week and facing a non-Conference opponent might not get the juices running as much.
The return of Carson Palmer certainly sparked the Arizona Offense last week and the veteran Quarter Back should be able to make use of all the weapons at his disposal without too much pressure in this one. He got Larry Fitzgerald going in the win over Washington last week and the Cardinals should move the chains effectively for much of the afternoon, while also getting Andre Ellington going on the ground.
I am quite the fan of Derek Carr and definitely think he will make a starting Quarter Back in the NFL and he showed what he is capable of last week. He should have some success again this week against this Secondary that has two top Corner Backs, but struggle because they are not getting a lot of pressure up front.
However, the difference could be that Oakland are not able to run the ball effectively which could give Carr tough down and distance to work with and potentially lead to some turnovers. Arizona showed they can turn the ball over well last week and I think they are going to be able to pull away thanks to a turnover or two more than Oakland can produce.
Oakland are just 1-7 against the spread when off a win over the last couple of years- they were so close to winning last week that they could have spent too much energy in that game and that statistic shows Oakland can struggle to back up solid performances. The Raiders are also 4-8 against the spread as the home underdog in that time and I think the Cardinals might take advantage for the cover.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Anyone watching Week 6 action will likely be very high on the Dallas Cowboys to knock off the New York Giants, but this looks a big spread that the Cowboys failed to cover against the Houston Texans and I like the Giants to play this close.
Dallas should have a lot of success moving the ball through their Offense, of that I have little doubt, but I also think the New York Giants can move the ball on the ground and that may shorten this game.
Houston showed you can run the ball against Dallas and I think that will be the game plan for the Giants, although the New York Offensive Line has struggled to open holes consistently for their Running Back. Andre Williams had a strong College career with Boston College, but he was bottled up for the most part by the Eagles last week so it will also be important for Eli Manning to keep the Defense honest with passes.
Most will see this as the chance for Dallas to really put the hammer down on a Giants team that were blown out in Philadelphia, but the Giants are a tough team that have shown they are a tough underdog to see off usually.
The Giants are 12-5 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games, while Dallas haven't had a lot of success in the position of a home favourite. I think the Cowboys will win which is the only bothersome for me in taking the New York Giants to cover the spread, but with the number close to a Touchdown, it looks a very big number to cover in a game that could see some long drives behind running plays.
0 Unit Picks: Washington Redskins - 5.5 Points, Seattle Seahawks - 6 Points, Minnesota Vikings + 5 Points, New Orleans Saints + 1.5 Points, Denver Broncos - 7 Points
MY PICKS: New York Jets + 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units
Season 2014: 25-22-2, + 6.54 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: Thursday Night Football games have been something of a disappointment for the television network as each week has just seen blow out after blow out occurring. It looked like last week was going to be the same before the Houston Texans rallied to make a very competitive game with the Indianapolis Colts and I can see this AFC East Divisional game being closer than anticipated.
The New York Jets have been pretty poor over the last few games, but they were very competitive against the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots seem to get the best effort that the Jets are able to muster up. That is shown by the last three games in New England all being won by the Patriots, but by a combined 15 points, while the Jets did finally knock off the Patriots last season at home, their first win over New England since beating them in the Play Offs of the 2010 season.
Everyone is going to back on the New England bandwagon this week after back to back impressive victories, but I think the Jets Defense can definitely make this a more competitive game as long as Geno Smith doesn't throw Interceptions in his own half of the field.
The Jets get plenty of pressure up front which will provide a real test for the New England Offensive Line that had been abused by the Kansas City Chiefs and it might just slow down Tom Brady enough once the pressure is in his face. I still expect Brady will have a decent game because the Jets Secondary is an abomination, but the pressure up front has been a problem for Brady and can at least stall some drives.
Add in the fact that the Jets have played the run effectively and New England are without Stevan Ridley and there is enough to suggest the Patriots won't be moving the ball freely all evening.
Geno Smith is a problem though with his mistakes costing the Jets a couple of games already, but he might be aided by Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson considering the Patriots have struggled against the run this season. Ivory has previous against New England with a 100 yard game against them last season, while the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per carry.
Keeping Smith in third and manageable positions is imperative for this Offense that is dealing with a decent Patriots pass rush and the ability to create turnovers, but he will need Eric Decker to find a way to get open as he is clearly the best Wide Receiver on the Jets roster.
The Jets are also 5-2 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games over the last three seasons, while they are also 3-1 against the spread in the last four games in New England. The weather also makes points potentially at a premium on Thursday and I think the Jets can run the ball better than the Patriots so I'll have a small interest on the road team with the points.
Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This isn't the best spot for the Baltimore Ravens which is the biggest concern I have for them this weekend as they follow this game with back to back road games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, two big AFC North rivals. A game against a non-Conference foe wouldn't normally matter, but the North looks a very tough Division where every win should make the difference and that should keep the Ravens plenty focused.
It is also a tough position for the Atlanta Falcons who are coming off three straight losses and knowing they have to travel to London for a game against the Detroit Lions immediately following this one.
If Baltimore are fully focused as I imagine they should be, it is going to be a very long day in the office for the Atlanta Defense which has struggled for stops. The Ravens are coming off a very strong Offensive showing and Joe Flacco should have plenty of time to add to his season numbers, while also knowing he can lean on a decent rushing attack led by Justin Forsett to keep the Ravens in solid downs and distance.
On the other hand, Matt Ryan might not have the luxury of being in short yardage situations to pass and his Offensive Line has really struggled to keep the pressure off their Quarter Back. Ryan has made some big plays downfield to Julio Jones, but he still needs some time and is seemingly being hit constantly when he drops back to pass.
The Atlanta Offensive Line has not played well and even the Ravens will feel they can get after Ryan despite not having a lot of success rushing the Quarter Back this season. That will make it tough for the Falcons to keep drives moving and it could be another tough day for Ryan at Quarter Back.
Baltimore have dominated the two NFC South teams they have already faced this season and they have been a very strong home team under John Harbaugh. I would expect them to win this by a Touchdown and cover the number on offer.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I know the Cleveland Browns have been playing very well this season and exceeding expectations, but doesn't it seem funny to anyone that they are considered the same level as the Indianapolis Colts if this spread is to be believed.
The Colts were 6 points favourites here in Jacksonville earlier in the season and Cleveland are going to go off a little short of that mark which looks remarkably high on first glance. Yes, the Browns are the better team, but a lot of their games have been very close this season and the Jaguars have shown some life last week in their close loss to Tennessee.
Bryan Hoyer has been very good at Quarter Back, but might not have the strong support on the ground that he received last week considering the strength of the Jaguars Defense is on the Defensive Line. They have gotten pressure on the Quarter Back from that position too, although Hoyer should still have a big game as the Jacksonville Secondary has been terrible with a lot of blown coverages.
Blake Bortles has made mistakes that rookie Quarter Backs have done through the NFL history, but he has also shown his upside at times, although with a limited cast around him. Bortles could have a decent game against a Cleveland Secondary that may be missing one of their starting Corner Backs, while the Jaguars have a chance to establish a running game to ease the pressure on their Quarter Back for the first time.
After coming off a big win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, it is a tough spot for Cleveland and I really think this is too big a spread for the road favourite, although I can't have more than a minimum interest on the Jaguars who have found ways to miss covers all season.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: When I first looked at the spreads this week, this game jumped off the page and I will admit it looks about as square a pick as you are going to see.
The Indianapolis Colts have been in very strong form in recent weeks, even if they have beaten three AFC South teams that are not exactly the best opposition in the NFL, but the home win over the Baltimore Ravens was much more impressive.
On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed far too many points over the last two games and are a little banged up on both sides of the ball. The lack of pressure they have got up front also will give Andrew Luck plenty of time to attack the Secondary and he has enough Receiving options to keep the chains moving.
Andy Dalton will be missing his biggest Receiving threat in AJ Green and while they managed without him last week in scoring 37 points against the Carolina Panthers, it might not be so easy against the Colts Defense which has gotten a strong pass rush. Dalton might not have the same time to dissect the Secondary as he had last week and that could see drives stalling.
However, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill should have strong games establishing the run which could give the Bengals a chance for the upset if they can control the clock, sustain drives and importantly keep Luck on the sidelines.
Indianapolis are playing with revenge for their loss to the Bengals last season and will know a win in this game could be important when it comes down to which teams receive a bye in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs later in the season. Like I said, I am not a fan when things seem 'obvious', but the Colts have looked the better team over the last three weeks and I will back them to cover this Field Goal spread.
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears Pick: This was another one of those spreads that may have jumped off the page for people capping Week 7 in the NFL, but I am actually likely to be going against perceptions.
The Miami Dolphins were an underdog by more than a Field Goal when the spread first hit the books, but that has come down to land on the three points line although I still think the Dolphins are worth backing this week.
Brandon Marshall may have a big game against the team that traded him away to Chicago with a point to prove, but Jay Cutler is likely to be under immense pressure for much of the afternoon. He won't have a lot of support from establishing the run and that should give Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon the chance to put pressure on the Quarter Back and perhaps force a couple of mistakes.
As inconsistent and mistake-prone Ryan Tannehill has been, Miami can give the ball to Lamar Miller to rip off big gains on the ground, and Tannehill also showed he can run the read-option effectively. Keeping Tannehill in third and short spots should keep the pressure off of the Quarter Back, even if Chicago haven't earned a lot of pressure up front, and will ease any mental burden to make a lot of big plays.
The Bears are also just 8-14-1 against the spread in their last 23 games as the favourite, while Miami have a stunning 17-3 record against the spread as the road underdog by five points or fewer in the last six seasons.
I do wish the spread was still above the Field Goal line, but Miami might just be one of the surprises of Week 6.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been playing very well in recent weeks and they showed their mettle in coming back to beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 6. The Packers should have a very strong day Offensively behind Aaron Rodgers, especially if Eddie Lacy and James Starks can provide a strong running game for Rodgers.
The Carolina Defense has struggled without Greg Hardy and it does feel they are a touch over-rated despite the fact they have given up at least 37 points in 3 of their last 4 games.
Cam Newton looked good against the Cincinnati Bengals and looks like he has finally shook off the niggles he has been carrying, but he might be asked to do plenty on his own if the Panthers are to cause a surprise. The Packers Defense should be a little more ready for the read-option Offense that Miami employed very effectively against them last week, while Newton doesn't have De'Angelo Williams in the backfield to keep the Packers more honest.
It looks like a game that could develop into something of a shoot-out, but it does look difficult for the Panthers to keep up with Green Bay who have been in a very good place mentally over the last three weeks.
If Newton is throwing the ball around to keep up, this Packers Secondary is one that is capable of making the big turnover and that should help Green Bay pull away.
While the game should be close for a while, eventually I would imagine the Packers are able to prevail by at least a Touchdown as Aaron Rodgers improves his 20-8 record against the spread when set as the home favourite.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Pick: A quick look at my Power Rankings above will show you that I have a lot of respect for this San Diego Chargers team so the question has to be why do I like taking Kansas City with the points this week?
Andy Reid has historically been very good coming off a bye week and I expect he will have prepared the Chiefs effectively in a game that is very important for them if they have a real ambition of returning to the Play Offs out of the tough AFC West.
I also believe this is a pretty bad spot for the San Diego Chargers who visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 8 in a game that will determine which team will lead the AFC West. This is a Divisional game so remains important for the Chargers, but it is also very possible they can be looking ahead to that game against Denver which has much bigger Play Off implications.
Both games between these teams were won by San Diego last season, but both only by a Field Goal each time and Jamaal Charles could have a big game running the ball to keep the Chiefs in manageable down and distance, an area where Alex Smith can shine at Quarter Back.
The Chiefs can also get a lot of pressure up front to cover the deficiencies in the Secondary, but San Diego could also have a strong game running the ball. Both teams are matched up quite well and I think this is going to produce a close fought game on Sunday afternoon.
San Diego are only 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games as the favourite against a Divisional opponent and I like backing the Chiefs in this spot with the points who are also 4-2 against the spread as the road underdog since Andy Reid arrived as Head Coach.
Arizona Cardinals @ Oakland Raiders Pick: The second most square pick of the week I am making is taking the Arizona Cardinals to beak the Oakland Raiders on the road and cover what doesn't look the biggest spread.
My concern for the Raiders is that they emptied the tank both mentally and physically in coming up short against a Divisional rival San Diego at home last week and facing a non-Conference opponent might not get the juices running as much.
The return of Carson Palmer certainly sparked the Arizona Offense last week and the veteran Quarter Back should be able to make use of all the weapons at his disposal without too much pressure in this one. He got Larry Fitzgerald going in the win over Washington last week and the Cardinals should move the chains effectively for much of the afternoon, while also getting Andre Ellington going on the ground.
I am quite the fan of Derek Carr and definitely think he will make a starting Quarter Back in the NFL and he showed what he is capable of last week. He should have some success again this week against this Secondary that has two top Corner Backs, but struggle because they are not getting a lot of pressure up front.
However, the difference could be that Oakland are not able to run the ball effectively which could give Carr tough down and distance to work with and potentially lead to some turnovers. Arizona showed they can turn the ball over well last week and I think they are going to be able to pull away thanks to a turnover or two more than Oakland can produce.
Oakland are just 1-7 against the spread when off a win over the last couple of years- they were so close to winning last week that they could have spent too much energy in that game and that statistic shows Oakland can struggle to back up solid performances. The Raiders are also 4-8 against the spread as the home underdog in that time and I think the Cardinals might take advantage for the cover.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Anyone watching Week 6 action will likely be very high on the Dallas Cowboys to knock off the New York Giants, but this looks a big spread that the Cowboys failed to cover against the Houston Texans and I like the Giants to play this close.
Dallas should have a lot of success moving the ball through their Offense, of that I have little doubt, but I also think the New York Giants can move the ball on the ground and that may shorten this game.
Houston showed you can run the ball against Dallas and I think that will be the game plan for the Giants, although the New York Offensive Line has struggled to open holes consistently for their Running Back. Andre Williams had a strong College career with Boston College, but he was bottled up for the most part by the Eagles last week so it will also be important for Eli Manning to keep the Defense honest with passes.
Most will see this as the chance for Dallas to really put the hammer down on a Giants team that were blown out in Philadelphia, but the Giants are a tough team that have shown they are a tough underdog to see off usually.
The Giants are 12-5 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games, while Dallas haven't had a lot of success in the position of a home favourite. I think the Cowboys will win which is the only bothersome for me in taking the New York Giants to cover the spread, but with the number close to a Touchdown, it looks a very big number to cover in a game that could see some long drives behind running plays.
0 Unit Picks: Washington Redskins - 5.5 Points, Seattle Seahawks - 6 Points, Minnesota Vikings + 5 Points, New Orleans Saints + 1.5 Points, Denver Broncos - 7 Points
MY PICKS: New York Jets + 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units
Season 2014: 25-22-2, + 6.54 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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