Week 4 Thoughts
What has happened to the New England Patriots? Where else can you start but discussing one of the most embarrassing losses the New England Patriots have suffered in years and years? After getting crushed by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football, the Patriots have some serious questions including notably about Tom Brady and whether the future Hall of Fame Quarter Back should be starting.
Imagine that... There are some serious questions about Brady's place in a team that he has personified over the last decade! Tom Brady had a bad night in the office on Monday Night Football, but this whole 2014 season has been difficult for the New England Offense which Brady admitted to in his weekly radio appearance.
I don't put the entire blame on Brady like some people seem to think and he is right to say that the Offense hasn't played well for a long time. The incarceration of Aaron Hernandez, the injuries to Rob Gronkowski and a Wide Receiver corps that hasn't replaced Wes Welker nor got a reliable burner to stretch the field are all issues that have nothing to do with Brady.
Add in a porous Offensive Line which traded away Logan Mankins in the weeks before the season began and I can understand that there are a number of issues to resolve Offensively. The Defense hasn't been as strong as advertised either, but New England are 2-2 and have every chance of righting their ship in the terrible AFC East.
However, this team looks far from being the one that many predicted would reach the AFC Championship Game and seen as the biggest threat to the Denver Broncos in this Conference. The game against Cincinnati on Sunday Night Football may highlight how far New England may have dropped, but a win and all these questions will quickly disappear.
What has happened to the New Orleans Saints? Another team that a lot of people had high expectations for but has disappointed are the New Orleans Saints who dropped to 1-3 after being handled in all three facets of the game by the Dallas Cowboys on primetime last Sunday.
Drew Brees, another sure-fire Hall of Fame Quarter Back, has been dealing with questions like Tom Brady has this week as some have suggested the arm strength has regressed and he can't sling the ball downfield.
There are more similarities with New England as the Saints Defense has been much worse than advertised, while the Offense has made a few changes which haven't really worked out just yet. The Saints are also in a weak Division which they are far from losing and they are a team that can quickly right their ship.
New Orleans have a huge game this week but another win would silence some of the doubters and I do think the Saints will pick up their form. It is Brees and Brady getting pummelled this week, but Aaron Rodgers showed what an elite Quarter Back can do when their back is against the wall.
The NFC East is far from the weakest Division as I thought it could be: In pre-season, it looked like the New York Giants were still not going to be able to get out of their way, the Dallas Cowboys were going to give up 40 points per game and the Washington Redskins were still trying to get Robert Griffin III back on track.
Early signs in the new season suggested the Giants and Redskins were going to live down to expectations, but New York have recovered remarkably in the last two weeks. Washington still don't look right, but Dallas are far better than they were expected to be and the three leading teams, including Philadelphia, have a 8-4 record through the first four weeks of the season.
The Giants should really have been 3-1 too if they hadn't stepped on their own toes in a home loss to the Arizona Cardinals and the NFC East could be a far more competitive Division than I imagined.
More will be revealed in the coming weeks, especially about Philadelphia who may be a little over-rated due to their record, but this Division may just have come alive.
Should the New York Jets bench Geno Smith? This is the big question in Gotham this week, especially after Geno Smith was caught on camera telling the fans to 'f*ck you' after the home loss to the Detroit Lions last weekend.
Michael Vick is ready to come in and play for the Jets, but benching Smith now would almost certainly be saying that the Jets are going to be back in the market for a Quarter Back for next season. In my opinion the Jets should stick with Smith and really see if he can progress as a second year Quarter Back.
If he doesn't, the Jets will likely have a high pick in the NFL Draft which is likely to have a number of Quarter Backs high on the Big Board and they could really make the move from Smith and look for a new franchise Quarter Back.
Of course the real factor is that Rex Ryan could be fighting for his job as Head Coach of the New York Jets and may be more willing to make a move to give his team the best chance to win now. With the AFC East in a spot of disarray, there is definitely room for a team to make a move to the top of the Division and that may be the real reason the Jets make the move, especially if they lose at the San Diego Chargers this weekend.
By far my most favourite play of the weekend was this one:
Top Five
1) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0): They were on a bye, but what looks the most complete team in the NFL has a real chance to prove that this weekend against the New England Patriots on the road.
2) Arizona Cardinals (3-0): A real chance to prove they are for real by winning in Denver this week.
3) San Diego Chargers (3-1): Three straight wins, including against the Seattle Seahawks and showing they could be a real dark horse in the AFC.
4) Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Another team we will know a lot more about after they play in Indianapolis this weekend.
5) Dallas Cowboys (3-1): Three wins in a row, playing solid Defense for much of that and with a running game that could take them very far this season.
Bottom Five
32) Oakland Raiders (0-4): That was as disheartening a loss Oakland could have suffered against Miami in London last week, players seem disinterested and Dennis Allen has been fired as Head Coach.
31) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4): The Jaguars improved with Blake Bortles behind Center, but the Defense is a real mess behind the Defensive Line.
30) Washington Redskins (1-3): Talk about taking a bump back down to earth- for all the praise Kirk Cousins got against Philadelphia, he was just as bad against the New York Giants as the Redskins were battered at home.
29) New York Jets (1-3): The Secondary isn't playing well and Geno Smith is turning over wins with his performance at Quarter Back.
28) Tennessee Titans (1-3): The win over the Kansas City Chiefs looks a long way away now and Tennessee have been embarrassed in back to back losses at Cincinnati and Indianapolis.
Week 5 Picks
Week 4 could have been better, but a couple of late losses meant it was a small profit for the week, which has left the picks in a strong position for the season. The Philadelphia Eagles non-cover was the worst pick as they had a decent lead at one point, but Nick Foles and the Offense couldn't get anything done.
The Buffalo Bills benched EJ Manuel after the Quarter Back was the main reason they failed to win in Houston, let alone miss the cover, while my New Orleans Saints pick looked ugly from the off as they were outplayed by the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Hopefully Week 5 can see a more positive move upwards with fifteen games scheduled for the week as only two teams take a bye at this stage following the six teams that were given a Week 4 pass.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The big question coming into Week 5 was whether Minnesota were going to risk Teddy Bridgewater or give Christian Ponder the ball at Quarter Back... It seems the Vikings have decided to prevent their future Quarter Back from getting a serious injury by giving the ball to their former First Round Draft Pick and that should bode well for the Green Bay Packers who look to move into a winning record for the first time this season.
Ponder is an turnover machine and the Green Bay Secondary have at least been able to do that a few times this season which could make this another difficult game against a Divisional rival for the Quarter Back.
He will at least be backed by a running game as both Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon complement one another in the backfield and the Packers have shown they can be hurt on the ground, but Ponder's biggest problem would be if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense is playing to the level of last week.
They didn't have to punt in that game and if Green Bay can build another big lead, the running game becomes less of a problem for the Packers to deal with and they can sell out to stop Ponder. Interceptions may be the key for Green Bay to move clear and Aaron Rodgers has dominated the Vikings in his starts against them.
The uncertainty at Quarter Back may have given Green Bay something to think about, but they look in a strong position to make this a good few days by winning a second Divisional game and moving above 0.500. Green Bay should be able to move the chains through the game and I believe they pick up a turnover or two, as they did against Chicago on Sunday, to get above this spread and cover.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Both the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers Defenses have been gutted by injuries and suspensions and both Offenses may feel they can move up and down the field in this one.
The key differences between the teams is the Bears have Matt Forte at Running Back while the Panthers are relying on new faces with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart banged up.
The other is that Jay Cutler looks fresher than Cam Newton and both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey look healthy again. Kelvin Benjamin has made some big plays for the Panthers at Receiver, and he should in this one, but the consistent threat is definitely on the Chicago side of the field in my opinion.
Chicago beat Carolina three times in a row between 2010 and 2012 and I just believe their Offense can make the more consistent plays and drop the Panthers to 2-3 while improving to 3-2 in the NFC North. The Bears two best results this season have come on the road and I do believe they can win this game outright, although I will take the points on offer for a small interest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Despite the absolute horror show the New Orleans Saints provided against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, I was very happy picking them to return to winning ways in the SuperDome where they have been dominant under Sean Payton.
The three road losses are a problem, but New Orleans are much more comfortable in these surroundings and there is every chance that Drew Brees can have a big game at Quarter Back for the Saints. Brees will have seen Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger carve up this Defense the last couple of weeks and he has plenty of Offensive weapons that can exploit the Buccaneers.
Even the pressure up front won't be a problem for Brees who is capable of getting the ball out of his hands very quickly and I think the Saints Offense won't be the out of sync unit it looked like last week.
Mike Glennon and the Buccaneers should feel confident they can move the chains themselves though which puts a few doubts in my mind. Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey may be able to run the ball by following what DeMarco Murray did last weekend and that will keep their young Quarter Back in a good position to make plays.
However, the loss of Mike Evans means he only has Vincent Jackson as a reliable target and while I expect the Receiver to make some plays, I also think the Saints Defense will be able to make some stops. That hasn't been something they have done much this season, but they did hold Minnesota to under double digits in their one home game and the loud Dome should aid them.
Tampa Bay are playing their third road game in a row too, which is tough for any team to deal with, and the Saints have dominated them at home in recent games. New Orleans are 16-0-1 against the spread in their last 17 home games as the favourite under Sean Payton's guidance, while they have gone 6-0 against the spread against NFC South teams in that time.
I also saw a wonderful statistic that shows that home teams favoured by a Touchdown or more are 35-8 against the spread when heading into a bye week and I like the Saints to win big.
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: There has been a big reaction to the Dallas Cowboys domination of the New Orleans Saints which worries me, but that concern was offset by the fact that the Houston Texans have a huge Divisional game in four days following this one.
With the Texans a surprising 3-1 (actually both teams from Texas are a surprising 3-1), they will be very focused on trying to knock off an in-State rival, but the game with Indianapolis is looming and it is hard to ignore that game being more important in the long term aim for Houston.
Being in difference Conferences means this is a rare game, only the fourth ever, and Dallas have won the last two games. DeMarco Murray might be seeing his touches limited in the near future, but the Cowboys would be very smart to give him the ball in this one as the Texans have struggled with that part of their Defense. Houston can't sell out either by loading the box as Tony Romo has played very well the last three games and could carve them up through the air.
Houston should have some joy moving the ball too, but I wouldn't trust Ryan Fitzpatrick not to throw a couple of key Interceptions that cost them the game. If Dallas were a more trust-worthy favourite at home, I would back them for a couple of units, but in this case I will go with one unit that the Cowboys win by a Touchdown or more.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: One of the teams I really don't like backing too much as a favourite are the Pittsburgh Steelers but they should be focused after their disappointing loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend. That came about thanks to turnovers and a number of big penalties that extended Buccaneers drives and Mike Tomlin would have looked to his experienced members to work on that through the week.
Without that loss, I wouldn't have been interested in backing the Steelers this week, especially not with a road game at the Cleveland Browns next up, but they can't afford to lose focus of Jacksonville. Both Baltimore and Cincinnati have looked strong in the AFC North so a loss to fall to 2-3 could already put Pittsburgh in a difficult spot when it comes to making the Play Offs.
Pittsburgh should have plenty of success moving the ball in this one whether they use the ground or the air to do so, although Ben Roethlisberger might feel some pressure from the Jaguars pass rush which is their most effective tool. Unfortunately the Secondary hasn't played well and Roethlisberger could have big numbers coming out of this one.
That isn't to say this will be a blowout, because I think Blake Bortles has a decent chance to have a strong game too against a Pittsburgh Defense that has a number of injuries to key starters. The Steelers Defense is simply not that good as some of the previous Steel Curtains that have graced their sidelines and Bortles can have the best game of his very short NFL career to this point.
The difference could be that the rookie Quarter Back is likely to make a mistake or two that Dick LeBeau that can highlight and use to turn the ball over which could give the Steelers to pull away. The Jaguars have simply not be a good home underdog under Gus Bradley either as they are 1-7-1 against the spread in that spot under this Head Coach.
It'll be closer that some may expect for a while, but the Steelers may end up pulling clear for a win by a Touchdown at least.
Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos Pick: This is a big game for the Arizona Cardinals to start earning the respect they will feel they deserve after their strong start to the season, although I do think their record is a little flattering with a couple of close wins under their belt. The game they really shouldn't have won came against Eli Manning and the New York Giants, but I am expecting Eli's older brother Peyton to have a better day.
As solid as this Arizona Defense has been, they are going to struggle to contain all the weapons at Peyton Manning's disposal, particularly if they continue to miss getting to the Quarter Back. Manning is capable of getting the ball out of his hands quickly with short screen passes and quick slants part of his game plan and I think he will be able to hit the likes of Julius Thomas and Wes Welker to keep the ball moving.
A lack of a running game could present problems later in the season, but that is a strength of the Arizona Defense and the game will likely be on Manning's arm, an area where I think the Denver team will have their success.
Surprisingly I will also think Drew Stanton will make some big plays as the Arizona Wide Receiver corps are under-rated and Denver have given up some big yards through the air. Like the Broncos, Arizona might not be able to rely upon Andre Ellington and the rushing Offense to pick up big yards meaning they will be looking to Stanton.
However, a key difference could be the pass rush that Denver are able to get going and they could have a big game against this Offensive Line if Stanton is throwing from third and long situations. That pass rush may help cause turnovers and the extra possessions could be key for Denver and Peyton Manning to cover this spread.
The Broncos haven't covered in either home game they have played this season, but they remain 12-5 against the spread as the home favourite, while Peyton has covered coming out of the bye in his last 4 games in that spot.
Non-Divisional games at home have been taken just as seriously by Denver who have something to prove in this one against a tough NFC West team, and the Broncos are 8-2 against the spread against those teams as a home favourite. I like Denver to improve those numbers on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: After the performance on Monday Night Football, I am not surprised that so many people are backing the Kansas City Chiefs with more than a Field Goal head start in this game, but I really think the 49ers are the right side in this one.
For starters, Jim Harbaugh will know everything he needs to know about Alex Smith at Quarter Back and is very likely to have the right Defensive plays worked on through the week to limit what Smith is able to do in this one.
Of course Smith will have plenty of motivation to silence the critics he faced for his years at San Francisco, but he won't get a lot of help from the Running Backs unless passing to them out of the backfield and it could be tough for the Chiefs to move the ball consistently.
The San Francisco Defense is coming off their best performance of the season and I am not as concerned with the rumours that Deion Sanders fuelled during the last seven days. As long as the 49ers are winning, I think they will remain as a tight unit and they should be far better than their 2-2 record suggests if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot.
That is more of a concern with the bonehead penalties costing the 49ers games already, but they were cleaner last weekend and I think Frank Gore could have another big game. If he is running hard, San Francisco could move the ball for much of the afternoon and I am not buying the Chiefs Defense after one huge game against the New England Patriots.
San Francisco have a big Divisional game next on deck, but that is on Monday Night Football in eight days time and I like the 49ers to win back to back home games while covering.
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers Pick: This is a tough spot for the New York Jets to be dealing with as they have to travel across the country with a beleaguered Quarter Back who has been fined for cursing out his home fans.
They also have to face a confident San Diego Chargers team that looks to have picked up from where they left off last season and it will be tough for the Jets to prevent Philip Rivers moving the ball despite the pressure they have gotten up front.
Rivers has been comfortable getting the ball quickly out to his playmakers and the Jets Secondary have been poor to say the least which could make it a long day in the office. It will need Rivers to be at his best for the Chargers to move the ball because Donald Brown doesn't figure to get a lot of joy from this Defense that have held teams to 63 yards per game on the ground.
If Geno Smith had shown an ability to steer clear of turnovers, the Jets would have had a great chance of winning at least one more game than they have, but they can at least make this a competitive game if their Running Backs can get it going. Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson are not the most fearsome tandem in the NFL, but the Chargers have struggled to contain the ground game and that could at least keep Smith in a position not to over exert and push too much.
San Diego have been able to get to the Quarter Back which could frustrate Smith, but this could be a closer game than the layers think and I like backing the Jets to overcome some of their recent problems. The Chargers are about to hit a run of three consecutive Divisional games and may not be fully focused on blowing out the Jets, and there is no expectation on Geno Smith who may have a better game being out of his poisonous atmosphere that has begun to filter into their home games.
0 Unit Picks: Cleveland Browns + 2 Points, St Louis Rams + 6.5 Points, New York Giants - 4 Points, Detroit Lions - 6.5 Points, Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 Points, New England Patriots + 1 Point
MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 1.95 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.05 Sky Bet (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
New York Jets + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (1 Unit)
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units
Season 2014: 20-15, + 8.16 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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