Weekend Football Picks 2014 (October 18-20)

The domestic football is back in action from Saturday 18th October following another two week break where the international football took centre stage and it will be another busy month of games in the Premier League and European competitions before the final international break until March.

I don't think I have ever enjoyed the mismatch qualifiers that usually take place during these breaks, although Dutch and German fans would probably call these matches anything but ones where they have dominated. Both Holland and Germany have made a poor start to their European Championship qualifiers, but the new format means both are still likely to qualify for the tournament in France which would make the whole qualification period a bit of a farce.

England have picked up nine points from their games to present a strong position in the Group, although Roy Hodgson just can't seem to get out of his own way with more criticisms of his training methods following his revelations about Raheem Sterling. It does feel a real club vs country row is developing between Liverpool and England, although both Hodgson and Brendan Rodgers have played down reports suggesting that is the case.


For now Rodgers can try and concentrate on revitalising Liverpool's season which has been poor to this point with a number of points dropped- fans believing they were going to challenge for the Premier League title have been given a rude awakening of what happens when a team is being asked to play a number of games in a short period as Liverpool are this season with the added Champions League games.

It is a big week for Liverpool in that regards with Real Madrid to visit Anfield during the week and they can't afford to lose both of those games after losing in Basel in the last round of games.


The next month is also an exciting time for Manchester United fans as it will give us a real idea of where United stand compared with the title favourites. After the game at the Hawthornes on Monday night, Manchester United face Chelsea and Manchester City in back to back Premier League games and we will see a realistic position for the side as games reach the 10 played mark.

Going into the international break in 4th spot was a positive, but United are likely to kick off on Monday a couple of places lower down the table at least in what is a very tight Premier League table at this moment.


The only team seemingly pulling away at the moment are Chelsea who have already faced the likes of Manchester City and Arsenal and some are even suggesting the Blues can go unbeaten. It seems a stretch to think that despite the positive start as an injury to Diego Costa will restrict what Chelsea bring to the table and I think they will still be going to Old Trafford next week with something to prove about their title credentials against a rested and hopefully fitter Manchester United squad.


The picks have not been very good to open the season and I am hoping the international break will start settling things down for myself, although I have to be a little better too. With the added preparation for this weekend games, I am hoping it will be a start to move into a positive direction and then look to kick on from there.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The international break is not just a momentum breaker for teams in domestic action, but it also poses problems for some of the best teams as their players won't arrive back to training until a few days before the next round of fixtures. The travelling is another factor that can play a real part in team selections, but this should be an important enough game for both managers to pick their strongest line ups.

Both teams are also involved in European action during the week which can also influence team selection, especially in the case of Manchester City who travel to Moscow for an early Tuesday game, but the early start should give the both managers a little more free reign.

Manchester City have proved a real nightmare for Tottenham Hotspur in recent games, something the BT Sport adverts have been playing up on, including scoring 11 times against them last season. They have dominated them at the Etihad Stadium since Peter Crouch's winner for the North London side that saw Spurs enter the Champions League at the expense of Manchester City, and the home side are certainly right to be favoured.

They do look a little short considering Tottenham's recent form away from home where they had the lead at Arsenal and should have won at Sunderland, but it is hard to see Manchester City continue to struggle at the Etihad Stadium. Goals have been a problem for City in front of their own fans as they have drawn with the likes of Chelsea and Roma in their most recent games, but there is too much attacking potential to really believe that continues.

The lack of real pace in the Tottenham Hotspur back line could be exposed by Manchester City, although I think Spurs have enough about them to cause some problems on the break. The counter attack has really been an issue for Manchester City to deal with, but the return of Fernandinho will help bolster their defensive shape.

Manuel Pellegrini has struggled to get the best out of Yaya Toure to this point as he has been using the Ivorian in a defensive two in midfield which has curtailed some of his explosiveness, but the goal against Aston Villa may see a change in form for Toure.

I think Manchester City will win this game, but it might not be as straight-forward as the short odds suggest. Goals have been a real feature of recent games between these two sides that like to play their football and it is unlikely to change this weekend so backing Manchester City to come out on the right end of a high-scoring game could be the right selection.


Arsenal v Hull City: The injuries in the Arsenal squad have to be concerning for the home fans heading into this game as Hull City have proven to be a difficult team to shake off for teams that have played them this season. Hull showed their heart and belief in coming back from 0-2 down against Manchester City to level the game before eventually being seen off, but that should show Arsenal that this is far from an easy three points.

Missing the likes of Mesut Ozil and Aaron Ramsey in the midfield are big losses for Arsenal, but they should at least have Danny Welbeck available and it might give the team a little more balance for Ozil out of the team. I am a fan of the German playmaker, but he can be wasted playing on the far left for Arsenal and his absence may give Arsene Wenger less of an issue picking the right players for the right spots.

Defensive injuries and suspensions should give Hull City some belief they can come to the Emirates Stadium and cause a surprise as they did in their first season in the Premier League during the 2008/09 season, but I am not convinced that will happen.

Hull are conceding too many goals recently, despite the clean sheet against Crystal Palace, and this Arsenal team does have goals in them with the likes of Welbeck, Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla and Jack Wilshire pulling the strings.

I believe that will lead to a win by a couple of goals for Arsenal although any goal for Hull City will make that difficult to overcome. However, Arsenal beat Hull City comfortably enough in the Premier League in both games last season and I think they will be able to score the goals to see off the Tigers and earn an important three points to get the side moving in the right direction up the table.


Crystal Palace v Chelsea Pick: After Tony Pulis departed Crystal Palace, I really did think the side could be in a spot of bother, but they appointed another man-motivator in Neil Warnock who had the side going in the right direction. Personally I am not that big a fan of Warnock, but this is the kind of game where he really will get his players pumped up and he will be looking to for Crystal Palace to rattle Chelsea ahead of a Champions League game and a visit to Manchester United.

However, Chelsea are playing Maribor at home on Tuesday night and will be confident they can get through that match without too many problems and Jose Mourinho will want his side to keep the pressure on their title rivals, even at this early stage of the season.

Chelsea have looked very good going forward so far this season and I would be surprised if Mourinho puts the shackles on his team after the way they have performed in their early games. Their ability on the counter attack has shown up away from home where Chelsea have won 3 of their 4 away games this season including scoring plenty of goals in wins at Burnley and Everton.

Even the 0-1 win at Sporting Lisbon doesn't highlight the number of chances Chelsea created in that game and in Diego Costa they have one of the better finishers in the Premier League.

The side did lose here last season which should motivate them to right that result, while Crystal Palace were beaten comfortably by the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City at home during that campaign. Even Liverpool had a huge lead at Selhurst Park before inexplicably collapsing and I don't think Chelsea have that kind of collapse in their make up.

I am expecting a fairly routine win for Chelsea on Saturday and I will back them to win by a couple of goals, even away from home.


Everton v Aston Villa Pick: One of the main criticisms I have pointed out about Roberto Martinez' managerial career is the amount of goals his teams have conceded and I made that point again last season when so many Everton fans were jumping on the Spaniard's bandwagon and being overly-critical of former manager David Moyes.

Some claimed Moyes had been holding back Everton and while Martinez had improved some of the attacking play, he had inherited a very solid team that had been left behind by his predecessor and not one that was lacking attacking talent. I did say the big task for Martinez will be keeping Everton a solid team defensively that Moyes had created and this season the injuries as well as the lack of depth has been shown up.

Phil Jagielka believes Everton have been punished for every mistake, but the defending hasn't been good enough and that has to be a concern for fans that took note of Roberto Martinez' time at Wigan Athletic.

After a poor start to the season, Everton need to start winning games if they are to challenge for a top four berth like some expected of them, but that does mean reducing the amount of goals conceded. Everton have had just one clean sheet this season and that is an area where Aston Villa can use their counter-attacking style of play to punish an Everton team that will be pushing forward for three points.

Aston Villa have been shown that the top teams are generally a little too good for them at the moment, but they can cause problems for Everton with their pace in forward areas, while Christian Benteke may be ready to start. I do think Everton will turn around their form and start winning games, but this one won't be easy and they may have to score at least twice to get the job done.

Their form at home against Aston Villa in recent seasons hasn't been the best, but Everton managed to come through with the three points last season and I think they can win back to back League games at Goodison Park against them for the first time since 2004. However, I won't be surprised if Everton's defensive problems continue to create an issue for them and the home side win a game where both teams score.


Queens Park Rangers v Liverpool Pick: The first live game on Sunday comes from West London as Queens Park Rangers look to earn manager Harry Redknapp an important three points against Liverpool. All of the talk this week has been about the disagreement between Brendan Rodgers and England manager Roy Hodgson in their handling of some of the younger Liverpool players, but that was overshadowed by the news that Daniel Sturridge will be out of action potentially until after the next international break.

Liverpool have certainly lacked a bit of potency without Sturridge and the summer departure of Luis Suarez, while Mario Balotelli hasn't really settled in at Anfield in the manner that Rodgers would have liked. The side also have to concentrate on this important Premier League game which comes just a few days before Real Madrid will be visiting Liverpool in the Champions League.

The player at the heart of the latest storm between Liverpool and England, Raheem Sterling, should be available for selection against his former club and he could be the key for Liverpool if they are to win this game. They look short considering they have won 1 of 4 away games in all competitions and the fact that Liverpool have lost 3 of those games, but Sterling has been one of the few bright notes for the side.

He has scored in his last 2 Premier League away games, both in London, and Sterling could be the man to break the deadlock in this one with Liverpool lacking a lot of goals from other areas. Sterling will be playing high up the pitch and Queens Park Rangers will be very wary of the pace that he will provide, while the side have conceded first in 2 of their 3 home League games.

QPR did show some heart in coming back twice to earn a draw with Stoke City in their last home game and Redknapp will know they won't have too many better occasions to play and beat a team like Liverpool. I am not convinced they will do that, and I think the player at the centre of the storm this last week following his request not to start against Estonia could be worth backing to open the scoring in this game.


West Brom v Manchester United Pick: This has been a happy hunting ground for Manchester United in recent seasons, but this Manchester United team have been suffering with some doubts defensively that will make this a more difficult task to continue their record of being unbeaten in 10 League visits to this ground of which they have won 9.

Defensively there are some problems, but the two week international break might have given the chance for the likes of Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Jonny Evans to return and offer some experience at centre half for Manchester United. Also, there is little doubt that this Manchester United team have goals in them and I think they can become the latest team to expose some of the defensive frailties that West Brom have shown themselves.

It's a tough position for West Brom to be in- they are at home so will be expected to get forward and attack, but they will also need to be aware of the pace and quality Manchester United have in forward positions. I would find it surprising if Alan Irvine doesn't at least set up his side to try and challenge some of the weaknesses United have shown at the back, but that should also allow Angel Di Maria, Juan Mata, Robin Van Persie and Radamel Falcao to flourish in space they should enjoy.

I do think Manchester United can win here as they should have done at Leicester City and there are far bigger tests on the horizon for the side. I was then torn between two picks because United are very short in the prices considering some of their defensive problems and a lack of away wins in recent games.

Either backing Manchester United to win a high-scoring game or backing the side to win a game where both teams score look the best way to get on the away side in this one, especially considering the last 10 League games at the Hawthornes between these teams have ended with at least three goals scored.

Of those 10 games, West Brom have scored in 7 of them, while the Baggies have scored in 12 of their last 14 home Premier League games. However one of those failures came against Manchester United, and I think it could make a lot more sense backing the away side to win a high-scoring game which is slightly lower priced than backing them to win a game where both teams score.

I believe Manchester United will have a few high-scoring games this season, but they are more than capable of scoring three goals themselves as they did in the 0-3 win here last season and that will be my pick.

MY PICKS: Manchester City Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.40 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Everton to Win @ 3.40 Coral (1 Unit)
Raheem Sterling First Goalscorer @ 7.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

October Update: 6-8, - 2.83 Units (27 Units Staked, - 10.48% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 20-40, - 22.20 Units (92 Units Staked, - 24.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)