International Football Picks 2014 (October 9-14)

I don't think I will ever become a fan of these international breaks that seem to come just when it feels like domestic football is settling down into some sort of momentum, but it looks like we will have to deal with it for the foreseeable future. The expanded European Championships means it is almost pointless for the top nations to compete in these qualifiers knowing the top two teams in each section will automatically qualify for France 2016, while the third place teams have at least a Play Off to decide if they will do the same.

After England beat Switzerland away from home last month, I did tweet that it seems almost pointless for them to play the remainder of their games as I find it very difficult to perceive a scenario where they won't qualify now. Games against San Marino and Estonia won't exactly set the temperature rising and it does feel like a long-winded process to achieve what we are likely to see.

Changes have to be made with how these blocks are set during the season with another break due in November, but at least after that we will get a clear run of domestic football for a few months.


With the mismatches that generally take place during these breaks, finding the right picks aren't always easy. There is no guessing how many picks I will make over the next week, but I will pool together all I do make here over that time period.


England v San Marino Pick: While there is no pressure on England in terms of whether they are going to win this game, there has to be some pressure on the team from the FA to produce a big performance in this one. There has been a lot of talk about filling the seats at Wembley Stadium for a string of qualifiers that are far from appealing, so any kind of struggle against San Marino is not likely to bring the fans back who are disappointed in the manner of the exit from the World Cup in Brazil.

Beating San Marino heavily is not going to get fans rushing out to buy tickets for the next qualifiers at Wembley, but struggle to see off the minnows and it will be really difficult to shift tickets. James Milner has urged his team-mates to focus after England took their time to score the first goal against San Marino when they met in 2012, but they are facing a goalkeeper that could be making his debut and England should be able to score freely in this one.

England are not a great international side- in fact they are far from being a very good side to be honest, but they picked up an impressive win in Switzerland and need to take control of this Group from here.

They have enough pace in the forward positions to give San Marino some real problems and as much as the latter have become more competitive in their recent away games, England could run away with this if they score early.

The Ukraine beat San Marino 9-0 in the last set of qualifiers and the likes of Finland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia have scored at least seven goals against them over the last four years in home qualifiers.

England have 'only' scored 11 goals in two home games against San Marino in the past, but I will look for them to get a little closer to the eight they scored in the game in San Marino in 2013 and cover a big spread.


Liechtenstein v Montenegro Pick: Montenegro have been a familiar name to those in England after pushing them close to qualification a couple of times in a row, but they should be looking at the new format of the European Championships as their chance to earn a place at a major international tournament.

Facing a team that has lost 10 straight games, including the last four in a row at home, should be one that Montenegro take advantage of, although it has to be said that Liechtenstein are a tougher prospect than many of the 'minnows' of European football.

Liechtenstein may have lost 6 of their last 9 home qualifiers, but they have held the likes of Latvia and Slovakia here and also beaten Lithuania so this is far from a pushover for Montenegro. The latter have also won just 3 of their last 9 away qualifiers, but they would be expected to win here if they have real ambitions of playing in France in a little under two years time.

A tough battle looks to be on the cards for Montenegro, but the basis of their chances of success may come from whether they can keep a clean sheet here. All 4 of their victories away from home in the last two qualifying campaigns have come without conceding a goal and Liechtenstein have only scored in 1 of their last 6 losses in their home qualifiers.

The price was more attractive earlier in the week, but Montenegro to win without conceding a goal is still looking a good shout.


Lithuania v Estonia Pick: Both of these nations have earned three points from their opening game of this section and the winner of this one will certainly feel they can push on and potentially finish in one of the top three positions in the Group.

With the way the fixtures have come out, either team could be in a strong position by the end of the next round of fixtures to be played in November and this should be a nervy game knowing what is potentially on the line for the teams.

Lithuania haven't been winning as many home games in qualifiers as they would have liked over the last four years, but Estonia reverted back down to type with their poor away results in the World Cup qualifiers. They did at least play better in the last European Championship qualifiers when Estonia came so close to making it to the first major international tournament, but it'll be a big ask to do that from this Group.

The surprise win over Slovenia has given Estonia a real opportunity, but I am not convinced they can back that up. Lithuania might have a little more about them at home and they could make the odds against price come up while putting themselves in a very good position in the Group before hosting Slovenia on Sunday.


Slovenia v Switzerland Pick: This is going to be a very tough test for Switzerland who would dearly love to get back to winning ways and keep tabs on those teams chasing the top two berths in the Group. They will have the same motivation as Slovenia who will also be desperate to recover from what will be seen as a poor start in a loss at Estonia and so both teams should be playing with a few nerves.

The big difference could be the experience of Switzerland having beaten Slovenia twice in the last set of qualifiers including a win in Slovenia just two years ago. The Swiss have enjoyed recent away qualifiers with 4 wins from their last 5 on their travels and they have enough of an attacking threat to pick up a vital three points here.

Slovenia won't be easy to see off, but they have lost half of their last 10 home qualifiers including that defeat to Switzerland. The home side have won the other half of those 10 games so they don't do many draws here and picking a winner does have me leaning towards Switzerland at a decent price.

MY PICKS: England - 6 English Handicap (includes draw) @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Montenegro Win to Nil @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lithuania @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)