Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2014 (October 8th)

There are just three more weeks of the ATP Tour to go before the World Tour Finals sees the top eight players compete in the end of season event in London and there are still plenty of points to be gained from the players chasing those berths.

The top three players have already secured their place in London, but it looks like being a really tight battle to the end to determine the other five places, although Marin Cilic was on the wrong end of a surprise First Round exit in Shanghai. That defeat puts him in a vulnerable spot to the players immediately below him in the Race to London, so he will be hoping to see a few more surprise results in the next couple of days to help his cause.

It is a busy day in Shanghai with all of the big names in action on Wednesday as the third biggest tournament left on the calendar sets up the Third Round.


Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: A poor early loss in Tokyo has given Stan Wawrinka some work to do if he is to book his place at the World Tour Finals although the Swiss Australian Open Champion would have to fail to win another match this season and see plenty of players in the positions below him to reach the latter stages of every tournament they enter.

It's unlikely that Wawrinka misses out, but he won't want to fall into the Tour Finals and instead will want some momentum going into that event.

This has proven to be a tough match up for him as Gilles Simon is capable of forcing him to play one more ball and extracting errors as Wawrinka looks to get closer to the lines. The serve should at least give Wawrinka the chance to set up points and having another week to rest should have recharged some of his batteries.

I can't imagine this being an easy match for Wawrinka, but I expect he has enough to eventually wear down Simon an come through with a 63, 46, 64 win and boost his chance of heading to London next month.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: A poor start wasn't enough to prevent Andy Murray from bouncing back against Jerzy Janowicz last week in Beijing and I think the motivation is very high in Murray to return to London for the World Tour Finals.

He couldn't quite get back into the top eight last week in Beijing, but he picked up more vital points and will expect to reach the Quarter Final at the very least here in Shanghai.

His win in the First Round should also have given Andy Murray a little more confidence he will see off Janowicz who was the first player Murray played in Beijing after winning the title in Shenzhen. Tiredness was certainly a factor in the first set, but Murray took control after the midway of that set and he will make Janowicz play enough balls that should lead to breaks of serve.

The Pole has a big game, but one that can lead to a lot of mistakes, and a better serving day for Murray would result in a more straight-forward win than last week.


Richard Gasquet + 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: While Tomas Berdych has all the motivation on his side of the court, Richard Gasquet has the capability of making this a very difficult day for the big man. Tiredness is another factor that could play a real part in this Second Round match as Berdych reached the Final in Beijing last week before being humiliated, but he has at least had a couple of days off before this match.

However, it is hard to overlook the difficult matches that Gasquet has provided for Berdych, which is something of a surprise to me considering the power that Berdych has on his side of the court.

Gasquet is capable of getting a few more balls back in play and can outlast Berdych in the longer rallies with the angles he is able to create, but the Frenchman hasn't had a great Asian swing. He will want to end the season with some positive results to ensure he gets the start for the French Davis Cup team in the Final against Switzerland.

While I am not convinced Gasquet wins this match, he should be able to take a set which will give him a chance to cover the handicap even in a losing effort.


Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Rafael Nadal has dominated his left handed compatriot in the past, but the layers are taking no chances with him this week after it was confirmed that Nadal had been suffering with appendicitis.

While he will eventually require surgery to remove the problem, Nadal has been on medication which has settled him down and the former World Number 1 does seem committed to playing here.

Nadal has come back from the wrist injury in decent form and I think Feliciano Lopez hasn't really shown much form in recent weeks and could already be thinking about the break from the Tour that will come for him at the end of the month.

Lopez has a big game that could cause Nadal some problems if the latter is not at full strength- however, I think Nadal has made enough of the right noises to be worth chancing considering he has won the last 10 sets these players have competed without losing more than 4 games in a set in that time.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2014: + 28.34 Units (1477.5 Units Staked, + 1.92% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units