NBA Picks October 2014

The season seems to have swung around much faster in 2014 than it does normally, but the NBA charge to crown the 2015 Champion will begin in October.

It is all change in the Eastern Conference where the Cleveland Cavaliers are the new favourites thanks to being able to lure their prodigal son, LeBron James, back home from the Miami Heat. The easy defeat the Heat suffered in the NBA Finals last June really sped up the return of James who has admitted that he would have been less likely to move if Miami were going for four NBA titles in a row.

The return of James to Cleveland coupled with the decision to trade Kevin Love in from the Minnesota Timberwolves to go along with the talent of Kyrie Irving makes the Cavaliers very difficult to look beyond. Their closest challengers are likely to be the Chicago Bulls with a healthy Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol (I still think the latter has something to offer coming across from the LA Lakers), while the Miami Heat have still got Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh and have made a couple of decent moves to remain competitive.

Teams like the New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers look far short of what those three teams can offer and I would be surprised to see anything other than a Bulls-Cavaliers Eastern Conference Finals, although Rose needs to stay healthy.


There doesn't seem to be as much movement in the Western Conference with the veteran San Antonio Spurs still the team to beat, although the Oklahoma City Thunder and LA Clippers will feel they are going to be able to get closer with some good health. Kevin Durant is out for a little while, but the NBA doesn't really get going, in my opinion, until after the All-Star Game in February.

The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets are definite dangers, while the Portland Trail Blazers could come on leaps and bounds with the experiences they garnered in the Play Offs.

Unfortunately for another big time franchise, this looks another rebuilding year for the LA Lakers despite the return of Kobe Bryant to full health, with the failure to bring in someone like James or Carmelo Anthony meaning there are a lot of make up pieces to their roster and Bryant the only 'star'.

In a loaded Western Conference, it would be a big surprise to me if the Lakers make the top eight places, let alone go deep in the Play Offs as Kobe Bryant is desperate to do one more time with a strong career definitely on the slope down from the mountain he helped the Lakers climb many times.


The 2013/14 season didn't prove a very good one for me after a couple of winning seasons, but I am expecting a turnaround this time around with a little better spot picking. That was some of the problem, but there were also some really bad times with teams blowing huge leads at times, but that is the nature of the NBA and you just have to hope to avoid those situations.

This year, the season tips off a few days before halloween and I am looking forward to the next nine months to determine the next NBA Champion.


Tuesday 28th October
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Miami Heat covered the last 2 years when opening as the NBA Champions, while the San Antonio Spurs are 4-0 in their last 4 occasions opening the season as the reigning Champions.

The injury to Kawhi Leonard takes away an important piece for San Antonio and Dallas will be confident considering their upgrades on the court and how close they pushed the Spurs in the Play Offs.

However, I think the Spurs will be ready to make a statement in this game and I like them to cover a small number. They might be 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games against Dallas, but they would have been 9-2 in that time if the number was the one we are seeing for opening night.


Houston Rockets @ LA Lakers Pick: Byron Scott said he is changing the culture of the LA Lakers and is demanding his team do not settle for the three point shot that was part of the plan under Mike D'Antoni last season. It might not be the ideal game for that kind of game plan against a hot shooting Houston Rockets team that loves to load up from downtown, although the Rockets have lost a couple of key components of that shooting.

Trevor Ariza doesn't seem an upgrade over Chandler Parsons which could play out over the course of the season, but Houston should have far too much talent for the Lakers. Opening games can be tough with the excitement in dressing rooms making up for a talent disparity, but Dwight Howard will be keen to win this game convincingly and show the fans what they could have been enjoying.

The Rockets covered in their last three games against the Lakers and they are 7-3 against the spread against them in recent games. I like Houston to have too much shooting for the Lakers in this game.


Wednesday 29th October
Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors Pick: There is going to be excitement in the Air Canada arena on Wednesday as the NBA opening week sees the Toronto Raptors get underway. After last season, the Raptors believe this could be a huge season for them and they can make a statement by beating a fellow Eastern Conference team in this game.

The Atlanta Hawks definitely look a stronger team than the one that ended last season and I think they get above the 38 wins they managed in the 2013/14 season, but there is a chance this game, despite being the opener, lands in a good spot for the Raptors.

Atlanta face Indiana in their home opener next and the team might be a little more prepared for the revenge factor from their Play Off loss from last season against the Pacers. The home team won all four meetings last season and covered in all four and I like the Raptors in this one.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The concern with backing Memphis to cover big numbers is their Offense which isn't always the prettiest, but they have got the job done against Minnesota at home and now they face a Timberwolves team without Kevin Love.

The younger looking Minnesota team may get a little lesson by the Defensive strength of the Grizzlies and Memphis are also 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 at home against Minnesota.

Minnesota are also on a back to back so may limit some minutes for their new look team and the Grizzlies may take control.


Thursday 30th October
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: Teams coming off a blow out loss generally do well as the road underdog, but the Knicks have to travel into Cleveland for this one road game before returning home and the Cavaliers should be ready to go as they open their season.

The Miami Heat showed that it isn't easy just to bring three top players together and expect everything to go smoothly as they struggled a little bit four years ago in their opening games with the 'Big Three'. However, this Cleveland team isn't facing Championship calibre teams like Boston to open this season and their bigger test will come with their first road game at the Chicago Bulls.

New York's triangle Offense is also in the early stage of trying to get the best out of the players they have and I think they could be overrun by the emotions of the building on Thursday night.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Clippers Pick: There is a new ownership at the Clippers which has excited the players and staff and this is opening night for the team which should keep the energy in the building.

This is also a great chance to lay the hammer down on the team that beat them in the Play Offs last season as the Oklahoma City Thunder are down to 9 healthy players and are off a back to back. The reserves should give the Clippers the chance to get away from Oklahoma City and I like them to cover what is a big spread.

MY PICKS: 28/10 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/10 Houston Rockets - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/10 Toronto Raptors - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/10 Memphis Grizzlies - 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
30/10 Cleveland Cavaliers - 12 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
30/10 LA Clippers - 12 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

October Update: 2-2, + 0 Units

Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units